Trading down is underrated

[Maelstrom787]

You have a convenient link for that?

Yessir, derp on me for forgetting. It's the most transparent look behind the scenes Seattle has ever offered - by leaps and bounds.

Inside The Seahawks Draft Room On Days 1 & 2 Of 2022 NFL Draft

A look inside the Seahawks draft room as they added four players on the first two days of the 2022 NFL Draft.

www.seahawks.com

The companion piece by SI's Corbin Smith (who is tight with Boyle) hints that Linderbaum was also very high up on their board and was a likely trade-up target.

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-report/5-takeaways-from-inside-seahawks-draft-room#gid=ci02a1906d00002619&pid=it-appears-seattle-managed-to-get-three-players-with-second-round-grades-on-day-three

 

[Chevy]

It was funny that everyone was convinced we were drafting edge with our 9th pick in 22’, we went OT.
Just go look at 2022 mock drafts

I'm not sure why you think it is funny. Our needs lined up with the top prospects...DE, CB, and OT.

 

[HawksNation]

I'm not sure why you think it is funny. Our needs lined up with the top prospects...DE, CB, and OT.

I’m just saying. We don’t know what JS is gunna do. We need CB help with year. Does he take Gonzalez? Idk

 

[Maelstrom787]

It's hard to know for sure, but he was fairly predictable last year. They always advocated hammering down a franchise tackle as step 1 of the process of building a roster.

 

[Chevy]

I’m just saying. We don’t know what JS is gunna do. We need CB help with year. Does he take Gonzalez? Idk

The whole point of a fan forum is to discus how the team is doing, who you excited about in the upcoming season, what do you think how this player or that player is going to do this year. The same goes for the draft. Its a topic of discussion and debate. If you want to be right all the time, then yeah sit back don't give an opinion until after the fact.

Of course we don't know what JS is going to do in the draft, but we can kind of narrow it down a bit on his past drafts and the types of players he likes.

There are no absolutes in life.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked if we trade down and take Skoronski or Ocyrus Torrence. If it worked last year, why not so it again, while also adding extra picks

Yeah! Trade down with the Bears. Both these guys will probably be available at #9. Just don't try to rip me off for a first round pick in 2024. I will give you a draft value chart offer.

 

[Jegpeg]

Because having a pick that can actually net a blue chip player doesn't happen very often. And you can't look at that opportunity through just a short-term lens. (Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.)

If they trade back, it better be because they are absolutely certain they can still get a guy they just have to have.

The think is even with a very high pick you are not guaranteed a blue chip player. Z.Wilson, Lance, Mayfield, Darnold, Trubisky, Winston, Mariotta and Bortles were all picked in the top 3 overall. In Woolen it looks as if we got a blue chip player last year in the 5th round yes the odds are lower but the risks are a lot less.

The "Draft a QB at 5" lobby all seem to assume that Geno one or at most 2 seasons left in him, Geno hasn't been battered by hundreds of games so I don't see why he can't play for at least another 5 years. Brady playing at 45 was an exception but next year sees Rodgers, Henne, Flacco, Johnson, Daniel and McCoy all with contracts aged 37 or more.

If we trade down a few times we could easily get 7 picks in the first 2 rounds. That could get us quality players in all our positions of need. With last years draft class likely to improve another good draft could see us pushing for the SB this year or next. If we draft a QB he might not get a start during his rookie contract.

I am all for trading down maybe not all the way to 25 but maybe to 10-12 range. I would be fine with trading for 2024 picks so if Geno doesn't repeat we have the draft capital to get a high pick but I am also happy to fill up with 2nd and 3rd Rounders giving us a core of young players for years to come.

 

[nanomoz]

The think is even with a very high pick you are not guaranteed a blue chip player. Z.Wilson, Lance, Mayfield, Darnold, Trubisky, Winston, Mariotta and Bortles were all picked in the top 3 overall. In Woolen it looks as if we got a blue chip player last year in the 5th round yes the odds are lower but the risks are a lot less.

The "Draft a QB at 5" lobby all seem to assume that Geno one or at most 2 seasons left in him, Geno hasn't been battered by hundreds of games so I don't see why he can't play for at least another 5 years. Brady playing at 45 was an exception but next year sees Rodgers, Henne, Flacco, Johnson, Daniel and McCoy all with contracts aged 37 or more.

If we trade down a few times we could easily get 7 picks in the first 2 rounds. That could get us quality players in all our positions of need. With last years draft class likely to improve another good draft could see us pushing for the SB this year or next. If we draft a QB he might not get a start during his rookie contract.

I am all for trading down maybe not all the way to 25 but maybe to 10-12 range. I would be fine with trading for 2024 picks so if Geno doesn't repeat we have the draft capital to get a high pick but I am also happy to fill up with 2nd and 3rd Rounders giving us a core of young players for years to come.

Maybe youre right about Geno, but why do you think he was given zero guaranteed salary in 2024 or 2025? I'm not saying you shouldn't believe in him. I'm saying that that contract and this group of QBs aren't coincidental.

I dont think the QBs this year are anything like the ones you listed. And none of them entered as favorable of a situation, developmentally.

I believe the reports that Schneider pursued trading prime Russ for a chance to draft Mahomes or Allen. If he thinks some of these dudes, in the right situation, can set the franchise up for perennial contention for 10 or 15 years, it seems like a good shot to take. Maybe you miss. But the potential reward is franchise altering.

Also, almost everyone that rails against drafting a QB acts like drafting other positions is a sure thing. I could just as easily put a list of defensive busts right here that were drafted early in the first.

I also don't think the opportunity cost defensively is much to write home about, outside of Anderson. This draft just doesn't have a top-tier pass rusher like Bosa or Garrett. Even Anderson isn't that level of prospect.

Wilson doesn't excite me at all.

 

[HawksNation]

The whole point of a fan forum is to discus how the team is doing, who you excited about in the upcoming season, what do you think how this player or that player is going to do this year. The same goes for the draft. Its a topic of discussion and debate. If you want to be right all the time, then yeah sit back don't give an opinion until after the fact.

Of course we don't know what JS is going to do in the draft, but we can kind of narrow it down a bit on his past drafts and the types of players he likes.

There are no absolutes in life.

Are you still mad I didn’t like Will McDonald at the combine?

 

[Jegpeg]

Maybe youre right about Geno, but why do you think he was given zero guaranteed salary in 2024 or 2025? I'm not saying you shouldn't believe in him. I'm saying that that contract and this group of QBs aren't coincidental.

You are right the Geno Contract implies that Pete and John don't fully trust Geno to be the QB of 2024 and 2025 so can cut him if he revert back to the Geno of the Jets.
However trading down for a 2024 1st rounder (or more) is consistent with that. If Geno continues at probowl level we can use the draft capital to make a final push for the SB, if he regresses we have the capital to get a high ranked QB then.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Room can easily be created, and trading down likely saves money.

Please, guys. Seattle currently has the 11th most cap space in the league. 21 teams aren't going to be too poor to sign draft picks. That's not a concern.

Not all the teams have 2 1sts and 10 total picks. The top of the draft also costs more than the bottom of the draft. Last year's #5 pick cap hit was almost double the #20. Based on last year's cap hits, the 5/20 spot will cost $8m total. Many teams won't spend that on their entire draft class.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Not all the teams have 2 1sts and 10 total picks. The top of the draft also costs more than the bottom of the draft. Last year's #5 pick cap hit was almost double the #20. Based on last year's cap hits, the 5/20 spot will cost $8m total. Many teams won't spend that on their entire draft class.

Nevertheless, room can easily be created.

This argument is especially moot when considering that half of the league is currently OVER the cap.

No one is going to struggle to sign their draft picks regardless, and trading down is not at all going to present a cap issue. It's a complete non-issue and should be discounted entirely as a consideration.

 

[nanomoz]

You are right the Geno Contract implies that Pete and John don't fully trust Geno to be the QB of 2024 and 2025 so can cut him if he revert back to the Geno of the Jets.
However trading down for a 2024 1st rounder (or more) is consistent with that. If Geno continues at probowl level we can use the draft capital to make a final push for the SB, if he regresses we have the capital to get a high ranked QB then.

My position is about the players available this draft, and the context of the franchise--which is a year or two away from really being in contention. If you doubt that, go back and watch the 2nd half of the playoff game against the Niners. Watch any games against the Niners. The Hawks were competitive 2 out of 12 quarters.

It's going to take a couple of years.

To your point, if Geno doesn't work out, what do you think the odds are such a pick in 2024 would be as high as 5? And what do you think the odds are that he QB class will have several prospects with many ideal traits that John is probably excited about?

The confluence of these two factors is the presentation of a rare opportunity. Pete and John have both said it. The reason Seattle didn't think long and hard about drafting a QB in the first last year isn't because they were certain Geno would play as well as he did. It was about the players in the 2022 draft.

And I'm old fashioned, but being in a situation to not start a rookie immediately is greatly preferable. I don't think you're going to find many Chiefs fans that are worried about using a pick on Mahomes, who didn't start until the last game or two of the regular season. And you won't find many Packers fan that take issue with Aaron Rodgers riding the bench for three years.

Even if Geno is dynamite in 2023, having the next guy loaded up isn't the worst thing, is it?

Also: they have four other picks inthe top 86. Drafting QB at 5 doesn't prevent building the roster in some other areas.

 

[Jegpeg]

My position is about the players available this draft, and the context of the franchise--which is a year or two away from really being in contention. If you doubt that, go back and watch the 2nd half of the playoff game against the Niners. Watch any games against the Niners. The Hawks were competitive 2 out of 12 quarters.

It's going to take a couple of years.

To your point, if Geno doesn't work out, what do you think the odds are such a pick in 2024 would be as high as 5? And what do you think the odds are that he QB class will have several prospects with many ideal traits that John is probably excited about?

The confluence of these two factors is the presentation of a rare opportunity. Pete and John have both said it. The reason Seattle didn't think long and hard about drafting a QB in the first last year isn't because they were certain Geno would play as well as he did. It was about the players in the 2022 draft.

And I'm old fashioned, but being in a situation to not start a rookie immediately is greatly preferable. I don't think you're going to find many Chiefs fans that are worried about using a pick on Mahomes, who didn't start until the last game or two of the regular season. And you won't find many Packers fan that take issue with Aaron Rodgers riding the bench for three years.

Even if Geno is dynamite in 2023, having the next guy loaded up isn't the worst thing, is it?

Also: they have four other picks inthe top 86. Drafting QB at 5 doesn't prevent building the roster in some other areas.

If things don't work out with Geno we are looking at a top 20 pick probably top 15. Depending on who we trade with and where they finish it is not unlikely we could combine them for 5th pick. My understandin is the 2024 QB draft class looks pretty strong though I don't know if they have traits that are particularly attractive to John.
I agree it is preferable to not start a rookie immediately a year holding the clipboard is great but if Geno is our Franchise back until Richardson or whoever comes to the end of their rookie contract thats a waste of a top 5 pick.
What trading back to a 2024 1st rounder does is a) Give us one more 1st round non QB this year to fill an extra position of need and b) give us a second 1st rounder next year to get the final pieces for a SB challenging team.
With time for a rookie to develop you don't need to use a 5th overall. We could get Someone like Tanner Mckee in the 3rd or 4th round and if he does well pre season keep him either as back-up or 3rd string.

 

[nanomoz]

If things don't work out with Geno we are looking at a top 20 pick probably top 15. Depending on who we trade with and where they finish it is not unlikely we could combine them for 5th pick. My understandin is the 2024 QB draft class looks pretty strong though I don't know if they have traits that are particularly attractive to John.
I agree it is preferable to not start a rookie immediately a year holding the clipboard is great but if Geno is our Franchise back until Richardson or whoever comes to the end of their rookie contract thats a waste of a top 5 pick.
What trading back to a 2024 1st rounder does is a) Give us one more 1st round non QB this year to fill an extra position of need and b) give us a second 1st rounder next year to get the final pieces for a SB challenging team.
With time for a rookie to develop you don't need to use a 5th overall. We could get Someone like Tanner Mckee in the 3rd or 4th round and if he does well pre season keep him either as back-up or 3rd string.

Great post.

It's going to be a fun draft! It coincides with my best old pal's (he's a Hawks fan) birthday. So we're going to have a time. It might be, as the kids say, a bit extra.