I'm sorry but I feel this topic needs to be addressed. It is talked about at great length. I listen to Softy and get annoyed with the whole. If RW doesn't play well, PC will have a lot of explaining to do considering he's got a guy in his last game who threw for 400+ yards, and 5+ TD's. Blah blah blah. He talks as if Flynn is a proven commodity. The problem is this logic is irrational.
Firstly, where talking about 2 (NE- 2010, DET-2011) starts and roughly 1/2 of a football game (DET-2010). 2.5 games is hardly a big enough sample size to draw any sort of relevant conclusions. Here's what we know:
Over his career Matt Flynn has the following stats:
1,015 yards, 62.1%-comp %, 7.7 yards/ Att. For a 92.8 QB Rating with 9 TD's, 5 Picks. Add 19 yards rush, 1TD, 3- fum/2 lost. Sounds pretty good right. unfortunately in those 2.5 games ( I count the Lion's game because he took over before halftime and the score was 0-0) Matt Flynn is 1-2.
The reason I say his past game experience is irrelevant is A) Past success doesn't imply future results. B) Those 3 games are over a year apart and he's with a new team in a new scheme. Different situations entirely. It's one thing to prepare as a backup, it's quite another when your expected to "be the guy." Flynn has never had that kind of expectations/pressure since joining the league.
To address Item A) Let's look at a few recent QB's -- A) Matt Stafford- Last year he threw for 5000+ yards, 40+ TD's, to just 16 INT's. with a 97.2 rating. Sensational season, So one would assume he'd just pick up where he left off right? However this year he's thrown 5 TD's, 6 Picks, and has a paltry 78.4 QB Rating. His YPA has dropped an entire yard. So what's the problem with Stafford? If we apply the "Flynn Logic" than he should have double the TD passes and more wins, right?
Example 2- Josh Freeman in his 2nd year (2010) throws for 3400+ yards, 25 TD's, 6 INt's with a 95 rating leading his team to 10 wins that year. Only for 2011 he throws for 16 TD's, 22-picks and his rating nose dives to 74.6.
The point is simple. Things change, situations are different every year even with the same teams and personel.
If FLynn's 2 performances were really indicative of his average play than there is NO WAY he doesn't win the starting job, it's that simple. The fact that he lost the job to rookie suggest that those games were statistical outliers.
I firmly beleive that PC made his decision based on the most relevant information that he had. That being practice film from OTA's/Training camp as well as the preseason. I think it came down to RW just outplayed Flynn. Some here beleive "we don't know what we have in Flynn." I have a feeling the coaching staff has a pretty good idea what they have him. Some also beleive that if FLynn was the starter that we'd have more wins. Possible, But I tend to beleive we'd be exactly where we are, we might have won the Rams/ Cardinals, but we might have lost 1 of the games we won. We'll never know.
What say you?
Diclaimer, I'm a WIlson fan, however if Flynn were starting I'd be all over it as well. My main concention is that we've got great coaches. They have more information than any of us do. I beleive they made their decision with only that evidence in mind- I don't believe salary entered into the equation at all. It Heaven forbid, RW get's hurt I will root for Flynn to do well. I like our QB situation, obviously we'll have some growing pains but I expect a strong 2nd half of the season, for whomever starts at QB.
Firstly, where talking about 2 (NE- 2010, DET-2011) starts and roughly 1/2 of a football game (DET-2010). 2.5 games is hardly a big enough sample size to draw any sort of relevant conclusions. Here's what we know:
Over his career Matt Flynn has the following stats:
1,015 yards, 62.1%-comp %, 7.7 yards/ Att. For a 92.8 QB Rating with 9 TD's, 5 Picks. Add 19 yards rush, 1TD, 3- fum/2 lost. Sounds pretty good right. unfortunately in those 2.5 games ( I count the Lion's game because he took over before halftime and the score was 0-0) Matt Flynn is 1-2.
The reason I say his past game experience is irrelevant is A) Past success doesn't imply future results. B) Those 3 games are over a year apart and he's with a new team in a new scheme. Different situations entirely. It's one thing to prepare as a backup, it's quite another when your expected to "be the guy." Flynn has never had that kind of expectations/pressure since joining the league.
To address Item A) Let's look at a few recent QB's -- A) Matt Stafford- Last year he threw for 5000+ yards, 40+ TD's, to just 16 INT's. with a 97.2 rating. Sensational season, So one would assume he'd just pick up where he left off right? However this year he's thrown 5 TD's, 6 Picks, and has a paltry 78.4 QB Rating. His YPA has dropped an entire yard. So what's the problem with Stafford? If we apply the "Flynn Logic" than he should have double the TD passes and more wins, right?
Example 2- Josh Freeman in his 2nd year (2010) throws for 3400+ yards, 25 TD's, 6 INt's with a 95 rating leading his team to 10 wins that year. Only for 2011 he throws for 16 TD's, 22-picks and his rating nose dives to 74.6.
The point is simple. Things change, situations are different every year even with the same teams and personel.
If FLynn's 2 performances were really indicative of his average play than there is NO WAY he doesn't win the starting job, it's that simple. The fact that he lost the job to rookie suggest that those games were statistical outliers.
I firmly beleive that PC made his decision based on the most relevant information that he had. That being practice film from OTA's/Training camp as well as the preseason. I think it came down to RW just outplayed Flynn. Some here beleive "we don't know what we have in Flynn." I have a feeling the coaching staff has a pretty good idea what they have him. Some also beleive that if FLynn was the starter that we'd have more wins. Possible, But I tend to beleive we'd be exactly where we are, we might have won the Rams/ Cardinals, but we might have lost 1 of the games we won. We'll never know.
What say you?
Diclaimer, I'm a WIlson fan, however if Flynn were starting I'd be all over it as well. My main concention is that we've got great coaches. They have more information than any of us do. I beleive they made their decision with only that evidence in mind- I don't believe salary entered into the equation at all. It Heaven forbid, RW get's hurt I will root for Flynn to do well. I like our QB situation, obviously we'll have some growing pains but I expect a strong 2nd half of the season, for whomever starts at QB.
I don't think 1 needs to chose sides. I'm pro-Wilson and Flynn. But I just don't think the above argument holds alot of value.
