4th Quarter Defense

A lot of national pundits are proclaiming the Hawks as a dark horse team to make it to the Super Bowl. A "hot" team with little to no weaknesses. Top 5 offense, defense, and special teams. What's not to like?

While I agree for the most part that the Hawks have played top flight ball in many aspects, I am still very concerned about their ability to stop opposing defenses on the road in the 4th quarter. Our last 2 losses, both on the road, came against Miami and Detroit, both games in which we were ahead in the 4th quarter and both games in which the defense crumbled on the last drive. Remember, even though we beat Chicago on the road, we were actually ahead in the 4th quarter with less than a minute left only to let Cutler throw a 50 yard strike setting up a game tying FG to force OT. And remember that ultimately it was the offense not the defense that pulled out the win. Consider if Chicago had won that coin toss before OT started- do you think that we would have stopped them from scoring a TD? Buffalo never really was an issue because we were up by 40 points in the 4th quarter.

My gut instinct tells me that this game is going to be close all the way through to the 4th quarter. What if the game is tied or we are up only by a few points and that RGIII, Morris, and the Skins have the ball with less than 2 minutes. Do you have faith that the Hawks will be able to stop them from driving down the field for the winning FG?

I love my Hawks, but I am not convinced that they will prevail under this highly likely scenario.

They might. Keep in mind that Bradford got the ball in this scenario last week, and even though I wanted him to score a little(Wanted Russell to get that record in OT!!!!!), he couldn't capitalize at all, even with the BS DPI on Maxwell and the roughing the passer, he still struggled, eventually being picked by Sherman.

That said, I'm a little worried about scoring a FG on our D, but good luck scoring a TD. And no one seems to say anymore about how Brady only gained 7 yards against us when he tried to come back for a game winning FG. Our defense just kicked his butt, even though he had 1:19 left.

You're absolutely right about the Rams and Pats, but both of those games were at home in front of the 12th man. We have not yet proven we can win a close ball game ON THE ROAD this season.

Chicago Bears?

kmedic":e2ipc6q4 said:

You're absolutely right about the Rams and Pats, but both of those games were at home in front of the 12th man. We have not yet proven we can win a close ball game ON THE ROAD this season.

Click to expand...

Carolina and Chicago were both close.

kmedic":3hq36sbq said:

You're absolutely right about the Rams and Pats, but both of those games were at home in front of the 12th man. We have not yet proven we can win a close ball game ON THE ROAD this season.

Click to expand...

OK fine, Panthers game. Cam Newton ended up getting the crap beaten out of him and fumbling the ball away after a Bruce Irvin sack, which the Hawks recovered.

FlyingGreg":jtakhrc2 said:

kmedic":jtakhrc2 said:

You're absolutely right about the Rams and Pats, but both of those games were at home in front of the 12th man. We have not yet proven we can win a close ball game ON THE ROAD this season.

Click to expand...

Carolina and Chicago were both close.

Click to expand...

Ok, I will give you Carolina. But as I remember it, against Chicago, we were up by 3 points with less than a minute and Cutler threw a 50+ yard strike to Marshall that set up the tying score. Defense FAIL. We were lucky to win the coin toss in OT, as we never had to rely on our defense to stop them thanks to RW.

kmedic":18p8yotg said:

FlyingGreg":18p8yotg said:

kmedic":18p8yotg said:

You're absolutely right about the Rams and Pats, but both of those games were at home in front of the 12th man. We have not yet proven we can win a close ball game ON THE ROAD this season.

Click to expand...

Carolina and Chicago were both close.

Click to expand...

Ok, I will give you Carolina. But as I remember it, against Chicago, we were up by 3 points with less than a minute and Cutler threw a 50+ yard strike to Marshall that set up the tying score. Defense FAIL. We were lucky to win the coin toss in OT, as we never had to rely on our defense to stop them thanks to RW.

Click to expand...

one problem with that though...... That 50 yard strike to Marshall could be designated as a fluke play, as it was only one play. The Lions beat us up the best, and I read breakdowns that showed it was Wagner and KJ getting too deep in their drops, allowing RB's to catch passes for 1st downs. It wasn't really our 4th quarter D letting us down, but our third down D. We have really improved on third down lately.

BTW, typing some words in caps does not help get a point across. Seriously.

And as for Carolina, yes we did beat them in the 4th quarter, but it wasn't exactly pretty. From what I remember they drove down the field and had 1st and goal with under a minute left. Thanks to one of the worst passes I have seen by an NFL QB by Cam Newton (10 feet short of a wide open TE on 4th down) we barely survived.

Against the Panthers the defense also left someone completely uncovered in the end zone and there was no one within 5 yards of Cam when he threw it into the dirt. We caught a break there

BillHawks":31g1hixw said:

Against the Panthers the defense also left someone completely uncovered in the end zone and there was no one within 5 yards of Cam when he threw it into the dirt. We caught a break there

Click to expand...

And Arizona caught a break when Braylon dropped a pass on 4th down.......

Stuff like that happens, and the game wasn't in the last 2 minutes in that scenario if I recall. We were in Cam's head by that point, ringing his bell all day.

The Rams even drove down last game, but fortunately they had to score a TD and Bradford forced a throw he wouldn't normally make. When I hear non-Seahawks fans talk about our road performances, they mostly point towards our offense as being the cause of our troubles. That was true at the beginning of season when the Hawks had no idea what they were doing on offense. That has been fixed, while the one constant has been our defense letting teams move the ball in 2 minute drills at will. If we're not up by at least 7 with 4 minutes to go and the Skins have the ball, I won't have a lot of faith.

I don't expect it to be that close of the game. It's just as likely to be a blow-out. Washington doesn't blow anyone out; we've blown out several teams recently since the read option was added, including SF's top defense. People keep saying the read option will be figured out and can't work for long in the NFL. So far, no one that's used it consistently's been stopped. Denver led the league in rushing last year; Cam Newton, Kaepernick, RGIII, Wilson. Personnel can help but no one is scheming it away. Washington sure doesn't have the personnel to stop it.

If it is closish, I still expect Seattle to be in firm control throughout. In this scenario, it doesn't matter too much if our defense screws up because Wilson delivers killing blows. He doesn't settle for field goals. He ends games with long clock eating drives and never gives the ball back. He wins.

That's the way I see it. That said, people like to fit narratives to the weighted random number generator that is football games. In reality, luck plays a very significant role and no NFL team is better enough than another to make that go away. I remember how in Super Bowl XL, it was clear to me we were going to blow out Pittsburgh after our decisive quick strike TD. The game started like a mirror image of Carolina. The Steelers were dejected. But, the TD was called back and a few more unlucky breaks turned into a loss, belying Seattle's dominant edge in all other game stats. Last week at St. Louis was like this. If that first TD had gone through, I'm almost positive it deflates the Rams to the point that we dominate.

It would be quite generous in my book to call the Marshall catch a "fluke" play. Everyone and their mother knew that we should have been double or triple covering Marshall and yet we played zone quarters coverage. Horrendous defensive scheme and call IMO in that situation.

I'll agree that we've improved on third down defense lately, but all of that has been at home or against some lousy teams like Buffalo on the road. I'm talking about when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter on the road and the opposing team is driving. How has our defense improved lately in that situation? The answer is we don't know, because the last time we were in that situation was in Chicago and we couldn't get them off the field.

hawksfan515":1f4cb3ij said:

BillHawks":1f4cb3ij said:

Against the Panthers the defense also left someone completely uncovered in the end zone and there was no one within 5 yards of Cam when he threw it into the dirt. We caught a break there

Click to expand...

And Arizona caught a break when Braylon dropped a pass on 4th down.......

Stuff like that happens, and the game wasn't in the last 2 minutes in that scenario if I recall. We were in Cam's head by that point, ringing his bell all day.

Click to expand...

This!

Hey, it's all good if we blow them out, no worries obviously. But do you really think we're gonna blow them out? Maybe, but unlikely.

As for RW, I totally agree that he will likely play the hero again. But if he gives us the lead with under a minute left, he's not gonna get the ball back unless they score again. The problem scenario is if they run out the clock for the game winning FG or TD- then RW and his heroics become a moot point. In that scenario our defense has to be the unit to step it up and shut them down. My concern is that they can't because frankly they haven't proven that they can all season long.

kmedic":1oj2danl said:

FlyingGreg":1oj2danl said:

kmedic":1oj2danl said:

You're absolutely right about the Rams and Pats, but both of those games were at home in front of the 12th man. We have not yet proven we can win a close ball game ON THE ROAD this season.

Click to expand...

Carolina and Chicago were both close.

Click to expand...

Ok, I will give you Carolina. But as I remember it, against Chicago, we were up by 3 points with less than a minute and Cutler threw a 50+ yard strike to Marshall that set up the tying score. Defense FAIL. We were lucky to win the coin toss in OT, as we never had to rely on our defense to stop them thanks to RW.

Click to expand...

Wilson not only once drove it 90 yards, but twice that game. No FG in OT either. All T O U C H D O W N ! ! !

Best thing I've seen a Seahawk QB do in a long, long time. RGIII is the same way though.

kmedic":1wq0z9bi said:

It would be quite generous in my book to call the Marshall catch a "fluke" play. Everyone and their mother knew that we should have been double or triple covering Marshall and yet we played zone quarters coverage. Horrendous defensive scheme and call IMO in that situation.

I'll agree that we've improved on third down defense lately, but all of that has been at home or against some lousy teams like Buffalo on the road. I'm talking about when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter on the road and the opposing team is driving. How has our defense improved lately in that situation? The answer is we don't know, because the last time we were in that situation was in Chicago and we couldn't get them off the field.

Click to expand...

I mean fluke play, as in it wasn't a string of plays like the Lions did. It was one play. So many things could have happened differently on that 1 play (Jason Jones sacking Cutler comes to mind.....) that the outcome could have easily been changed. The Lions strung together about 8 or so plays, just like the Dolphins did. That is much worse for our defense.

BTW, to me, 3 points determine a line's equation. I want to see a 3rd bad performance on the road for our 4th quarter D before I label them a "crappy 4th quarter defense". I sure hope it doesn't happen against Washington.

seahawks08":3bocgar3 said:

hawksfan515":3bocgar3 said:

BillHawks":3bocgar3 said:

Against the Panthers the defense also left someone completely uncovered in the end zone and there was no one within 5 yards of Cam when he threw it into the dirt. We caught a break there

Click to expand...

And Arizona caught a break when Braylon dropped a pass on 4th down.......

Stuff like that happens, and the game wasn't in the last 2 minutes in that scenario if I recall. We were in Cam's head by that point, ringing his bell all day.

Click to expand...

This!

Click to expand...

I think there's a 50/50 chance we blow them out. We've blown out 3 teams in our last 4 games since we added the read option and Washington has a bad defense. What's more, we are favorite on the road in the playoffs, which is rare so obviously lots of analysts and bettors, like me, are seeing something pretty significant in the quality of this team.

I thought we would blow out Carolina in 2005 and lots of "sane" people called for calm, but we know what happened. Seattle is a much much better football team than Washington. We have the number one scoring defense in the NFL. There are far too few data points to infer a trend from a couple blown saves. There's a kick returner who changed teams in the middle of this season who is undefeated. Does this mean he's the greatest kick returner in history? No, it's just an accident of sample size.

I could certainly see another "one play" drive again late in the game if the Hawks continue to play that stupid prevent zone D, only this time instead of Cutler to Marshall it will be RGIII to Garcon.

I see 4 games this season where our defense couldn't hold a lead late in the 4th quarter- Arizona, Detroit, Miami, and Chicago. That's 3 out of the 5 losses on the road and easily could have been 4.