The key to winning this game

I think our defense is going to do it's thing, Manning is going to do his thing, and the Broncos are going to end up scoring somewhere between 17 and 27 points. I'd be pretty surprised if they score outside of that range. That's still a pretty decent amount of points though, so how Seattle's offense functions to me is the true wildcard of this Super Bowl.

Looking at Denver's defense, their run defense is top 10 and Knighton in particular is going to give a slumping Max Unger problems. Maybe Seattle will still run the ball well in this game anyway, but I'm expecting the run game up the middle to go about as well as it did in the Carolina game.

The more I study Denver's defense, the more I am reminded of the Falcons in the playoffs last year. Lynch never got going in that game, averaging about 2 yards a carry. The interior run game never got off the ground. And at halftime, Seattle had an outstanding 190 yards of offense mostly from just four drives, and yet somehow had 0 points. In the second half, down by 20, Seattle switched gears to a game plan that attacked Atlanta's secondary while letting Wilson run when the chance was there. The result was 28 second half points, and very nearly a huge comeback win. Had Seattle put the game on Wilson earlier, it's very likely they break 30 and win that game.

To me, the deciding factor in this game will be how much trust Pete puts on Wilson. If he tries to play things safe and grind out a win, it's going to be a close game and possibly a loss. But if he stretches that secondary with Harvin and is relatively aggressive with Wilson, it's likely to be a game of pitch and catch to less heralded guys like Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin.

I feel very confident that if Seattle plays pass first and Wilson plays a typical Wilson game, our offense is going to shred that defense, regardless of what Lynch does. If there is one opponent this season that screams setting up the run with the pass, it's this Denver defense without Von Miller.

We have to try and rely on what got us here, but I agree, the playbook should be wide open for the Championship. Let Russell be himself.

I have been hoping all week that we start off trying to pass more than we ever normally do. I think we can surprise the hell out of the Denver defense with it.

Don't disagree with you Kearly, but I don't think there is a chance in hell we see an agressive passing gameplan in the 1st half.

I actually think because of Harvin and because the Denver secondary is most definitely the weak link of their team, they will pass much more early on thus opening the run game for the 2nd half.

I also think that a big key will be keeping the field short on offense/scoring on ST. Between Harvin and Tate, they have to consistently take advantage of Denver's poor special teams play.

Furthermore, if special teams (or the defense for that matter) can spot the offense seven points straight up, I trust the offense to get the other twenty-one or so needed. If DEF/ST can spot the offense fourteen points, this game is almost definitely a win for the Seahawks.

Pound the rock, and eat up a ton of clock.

I watched the Denver game against the Chargers in week 15.
The Chargers were gashing the Denver defense, and that was when Von Miller was playing.
Pot Roast was a none factor in that game, and Ryan Mathews was healthy, something he wasn't in the play off rematch.
I really believe Lynch will get going against their defense, and with Percy being an unknown...Open up the passing game.

For me the key is 3rd down efficiency. Denver has stunk at covering tight ends. Seattle doesn't throw much at tight ends, but when we do it is often on third down. No doubt the Broncos have noticed that in 3rd and long, we have struggled to pick up the blitz. It is a serious problem that they will try to exploit.

Also, the red zone gaffes. Kearly mentions the first half vs the Falcons last year, when we moved the ball, but were awful in crucial moments in the scoring zones. There has been moments like that in almost every game this year. Last week the 4th down and goal fumble illustrates that point, it was a chance to salt away that game, and there was a failure to execute from front to back, I think Marshawn lost focus when he saw two defenders break through immediately.

Don't get me wrong, I think we win, but the biggest reason I think we don't blow them out is our offense that just can't get out of it's own way sometimes.

RolandDeschain":2jk4r79d said:

I have been hoping all week that we start off trying to pass more than we ever normally do. I think we can surprise the hell out of the Denver defense with it.

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I agree, if you recall the 2005 Season the Steelers were playing the COlts (The game made famous by Bettis' fumble at the end of game) The Steelers were a power running team with a 2nd year QB. The Colts were the explosive offense.

Steelers came out and threw the ball and caught the Colts off guard completely and it was through that early passing the Steelers were able to get out to a good lead by halftime. (14-3 at halftime)

kearly":1qspzat3 said:

I think our defense is going to do it's thing, Manning is going to do his thing, and the Broncos are going to end up scoring somewhere between 17 and 27 points. I'd be pretty surprised if they score outside of that range. That's still a pretty decent amount of points though, so how Seattle's offense functions to me is the true wildcard of this Super Bowl.

Looking at Denver's defense, their run defense is top 10 and Knighton in particular is going to give a slumping Max Unger problems. Maybe Seattle will still run the ball well in this game anyway, but I'm expecting the run game up the middle to go about as well as it did in the Carolina game.

The more I study Denver's defense, the more I am reminded of the Falcons in the playoffs last year. Lynch never got going in that game, averaging about 2 yards a carry. The interior run game never got off the ground. And at halftime, Seattle had an outstanding 190 yards of offense mostly from just four drives, and yet somehow had 0 points. In the second half, down by 20, Seattle switched gears to a game plan that attacked Atlanta's secondary while letting Wilson run when the chance was there. The result was 28 second half points, and very nearly a huge comeback win. Had Seattle put the game on Wilson earlier, it's very likely they break 30 and win that game.

To me, the deciding factor in this game will be how much trust Pete puts on Wilson. If he tries to play things safe and grind out a win, it's going to be a close game and possibly a loss. But if he stretches that secondary with Harvin and is relatively aggressive with Wilson, it's likely to be a game of pitch and catch to less heralded guys like Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin.

I feel very confident that if Seattle plays pass first and Wilson plays a typical Wilson game, our offense is going to shred that defense, regardless of what Lynch does. If there is one opponent this season that screams setting up the run with the pass, it's this Denver defense without Von Miller.

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I was extremely surprised in the 49ers game. Before that game I was on the Bevell is causing issues bandwagon. But in the 49ers game, that completely changed my mind. The reasoning is clear. Before that game there were two options to me:

1) They just no longer trusted Wilson as much and were stuck in the conservative game plan.
2) They played as conservative as possible to increase the likelyhood of victory versus size of victory.

I believe option 2 was correct. Against the Saints, and in earlier games, Pete seemed to think the highly conservative game plan increased the likelyhood of winning even if it decreased the points of the average win. Once the Hawks came up against the niners, they completely threw the conservative playbook out of the window. They started the first play with [an ill fated] pass. That first play should have been a HUGE gain, but Wilson shat the bed. I mean, there were literally 2 people open down field, the TE open for a short pass, and only 1 niner defender in a position to make a play. Not only did Aldon make a play, he stripped the ball and recovered the fumble. It's quite possibly the best play i've seen by a defender and the worst decision i've seen from Wilson. But I digress.

They came out in the niners game and went against the run run, pass, punt formula. They passed on running downs, ran on passing downs, and completely became unpredictable. They also took chances, like the 4th and 7 chance. Remember in the Giants game, twice early in the game the offense was driving, came up to a 4th and 1 from the Giants 40 yard line and Pete punted both times. This was the ultra conservative game, because ultra conservative assured them of victory.

So will the offense come out passing? I think there is all the likelyhood in the world that they will come out very balanced and unpredictable and stick with what works. BTW, I think that's actually going to be passing to set up the run.

The most important aspect of this game is going to be Wilson. He needs to carve up that defense with his legs like Kaep carved up the best defense in the league with his legs.

Scottemojo":1qspzat3 said:

For me the key is 3rd down efficiency. Denver has stunk at covering tight ends. Seattle doesn't throw much at tight ends, but when we do it is often on third down. No doubt the Broncos have noticed that in 3rd and long, we have struggled to pick up the blitz. It is a serious problem that they will try to exploit.

Also, the red zone gaffes. Kearly mentions the first half vs the Falcons last year, when we moved the ball, but were awful in crucial moments in the scoring zones. There has been moments like that in almost every game this year. Last week the 4th down and goal fumble illustrates that point, it was a chance to salt away that game, and there was a failure to execute from front to back, I think Marshawn lost focus when he saw two defenders break through immediately.

Don't get me wrong, I think we win, but the biggest reason I think we don't blow them out is our offense that just can't get out of it's own way sometimes.

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I agree with this. The reason our offense makes horrible plays in certain scenarios, is due to Wilson. But it's not really his fault, he is only a 2nd year player. Unfortunately for us, I expect Wilson to eliminate these plays in the future --either by checking out of certain plays, like the one you brought up, a fake run and roll with the run/pass option woyuld have resulted in a 100% TD --or by just calming the offense down with his confidence and experience --however, by the time he is able to eliminate these plays, he is going to be paid 20m per year, and we are not going to have as deep of a team.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks try to take a shot on the very first play downfield to Harvin. Play action, roll out, double move, and air it out.

I think they should start passing out of run formations and running out of pass formations. Get the Broncos head spinning a little bit. Teams tend to overprepare for the Super Bowl so mistakes can be forced in the first quarter if you give looks that counter what they've been watching on film for two weeks.

kearly":1k2zi2ih said:

I think our defense is going to do it's thing, Manning is going to do his thing, and the Broncos are going to end up scoring somewhere between 17 and 27 points. I'd be pretty surprised if they score outside of that range. That's still a pretty decent amount of points though, so how Seattle's offense functions to me is the true wildcard of this Super Bowl.

Looking at Denver's defense, their run defense is top 10 and Knighton in particular is going to give a slumping Max Unger problems. Maybe Seattle will still run the ball well in this game anyway, but I'm expecting the run game up the middle to go about as well as it did in the Carolina game.

The more I study Denver's defense, the more I am reminded of the Falcons in the playoffs last year. Lynch never got going in that game, averaging about 2 yards a carry. The interior run game never got off the ground. And at halftime, Seattle had an outstanding 190 yards of offense mostly from just four drives, and yet somehow had 0 points. In the second half, down by 20, Seattle switched gears to a game plan that attacked Atlanta's secondary while letting Wilson run when the chance was there. The result was 28 second half points, and very nearly a huge comeback win. Had Seattle put the game on Wilson earlier, it's very likely they break 30 and win that game.

To me, the deciding factor in this game will be how much trust Pete puts on Wilson. If he tries to play things safe and grind out a win, it's going to be a close game and possibly a loss. But if he stretches that secondary with Harvin and is relatively aggressive with Wilson, it's likely to be a game of pitch and catch to less heralded guys like Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin.

I feel very confident that if Seattle plays pass first and Wilson plays a typical Wilson game, our offense is going to shred that defense, regardless of what Lynch does. If there is one opponent this season that screams setting up the run with the pass, it's this Denver defense without Von Miller.

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My thoughts exactly. We do, afterall, have the better receiving corps.

Agree about the Unger-Knighton matchup. I think that is going to be downright ugly for Seattle unfortunately. It's the one matchup that really favors Denver's defense. I don't think they would ever abandon the run unless denver gets up big, but lets hope they are able to adapt and run successful plays that are not predicable if things aren't going great on offense.

seahawk2k":2c0tx60w said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks try to take a shot on the very first play downfield to Harvin. Play action, roll out, double move, and air it out.

I think they should start passing out of run formations and running out of pass formations. Get the Broncos head spinning a little bit. Teams tend to overprepare for the Super Bowl so mistakes can be forced in the first quarter if you give looks that counter what they've been watching on film for two weeks.

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Tough to do when we go empty backfield constantly

One thing we don't want to try to do is get into a flat out shoot out with Denver. Time of possession IS pretty critical (unless Pete knows something we don't about controlling Manning) and that means leaning on the run game. I don't see that changing to much. Does our passing game open the running game, or vis versa? You can't deny the effect the Beast has on teams going into the second half. If the score stays close the first half Pete will continue to run. I also think Pete will test them though. Depending on down and yards Pete will air it out. I do have to say though that we'll see more designed runs from Wilson. What better way to tie up a defender than to make them commit to spying on Wilson. Having Percy in there will then force their backfield lean to his side some with over the top coverage from safeties. If we do start passing, I think it'll come after we beast them up some, run read-options and designed roll outs(with Wilson running more often than not on these). I guess what I'm saying is we're gonna unleash Russell more in this game than before. Think Buffalo last year.

I like what we did against SF on offense. If we repeat, and even embellish on that game, we win going away.