The myth of stopping Lynch

SalishHawkFan · Aug 31, 2014

Every week during the season opposing fans post the same thing: the key to beating us is to stop Lynch and make Wilson beat us. Slightly more informed fans think that they need to also contain Wilson and force him to throw in the pocket. Week in, week out, these are the "keys" to beating the Hawks.

History says otherwise.

In our three losses in 2013, Lynch ran for 102, 71 and 72 yards. In those three losses, however, Wilson had three of his 5 worst games. His second worst game was the OT win vs Texas. Lynch ran for 98 yds in that game.

Going back to 2012, in our five losses, Lynch ran for 85, 119, 103,105 and 46. In those five losses, Wilson's rating was 62, 45, 38, 97 and 128. 4 of his 5 worst ratings of the year.

The one time in 8 losses that the Hawks saw Lynch get held to low yardage and Wilson have a great game was 2012 vs Miami. The other 7 games, Lynch had 71 yards or more, breaking 100 yards 4 times and the team lost anyways because Wilson had a crappy game. The sole exception being vs Detroit, where Lynch had a great game and Wilson wasn't too shabby either, but they lost anyways because the defense took the day off.

Let's look at Lynch's worst games over the past two years:

Lynch's 5 worst games rushing in 2013 all resulted in wins for Seattle. Two squeakers against Carolina and St. Louis, the other three were all blowouts. Wilson had over 100 rating in 4 of those 5 games and an 86 in the other one.

Lynch was only held to less than 85 yards rushing twice in 2012. We won one game and lost the other. One of those games was the NE game where Wilson carried the team, the other was the aforementioned Miami game where both Lynch and Wilson had an off day.

Teams that focus on stopping Lynch are going to lose. Stopping Lynch only opens up the game for Wilson to romp over you. Teams that let Lynch have a big day but put the screws on Wilson and force him into having a bad day are the only teams that will beat the Seahawks. When an opposing fan says the keys to beating the Hawks are to stop Lynch, you can stop reading right there. They don't know what they're talking about. The only way to beat the Hawks is to force our "game manager" QB to have an off day.

History doesn't lie.

CANHawk · Aug 31, 2014

Truf!

Cartire · Aug 31, 2014

First, CANHawk, awesome avatar.

Second, THANK YOU FOR WRITING THIS. Every forum, every fan, its always the same. Stop Lynch, win. Thats it. Thats their main objective. And they dont even realize, that falls right into our trap. Lynch is a beast, but at this point, he is mearly a decoy. In gaming terms, he pulls all the aggro and Wilson is then free to just let her rip. Lynch basically plays Tank.

Scottemojo · Aug 31, 2014

SalishHawkFan":3rdfkugv said:
Every week during the season opposing fans post the same thing: the key to beating us is to stop Lynch and make Wilson beat us. Slightly more informed fans think that they need to also contain Wilson and force him to throw in the pocket. Week in, week out, these are the "keys" to beating the Hawks.

History says otherwise.

In our three losses in 2013, Lynch ran for 102, 71 and 72 yards. In those three losses, however, Wilson had three of his 5 worst games. His second worst game was the OT win vs Texas. Lynch ran for 98 yds in that game.

Going back to 2012, in our five losses, Lynch ran for 85, 119, 103,105 and 46. In those five losses, Wilson's rating was 62, 45, 38, 97 and 128. 4 of his 5 worst ratings of the year.

The one time in 8 losses that the Hawks saw Lynch get held to low yardage and Wilson have a great game was 2012 vs Miami. The other 7 games, Lynch had 71 yards or more, breaking 100 yards 4 times and the team lost anyways because Wilson had a crappy game. The sole exception being vs Detroit, where Lynch had a great game and Wilson wasn't too shabby either, but they lost anyways because the defense took the day off.

Let's look at Lynch's worst games over the past two years:

Lynch's 5 worst games rushing in 2013 all resulted in wins for Seattle. Two squeakers against Carolina and St. Louis, the other three were all blowouts. Wilson had over 100 rating in 4 of those 5 games and an 86 in the other one.

Lynch was only held to less than 85 yards rushing twice in 2012. We won one game and lost the other. One of those games was the NE game where Wilson carried the team, the other was the aforementioned Miami game where both Lynch and Wilson had an off day.

Teams that focus on stopping Lynch are going to lose. Stopping Lynch only opens up the game for Wilson to romp over you. Teams that let Lynch have a big day but put the screws on Wilson and force him into having a bad day are the only teams that will beat the Seahawks. When an opposing fan says the keys to beating the Hawks are to stop Lynch, you can stop reading right there. They don't know what they're talking about. The only way to beat the Hawks is to force our "game manager" QB to have an off day.

History doesn't lie.

I appreciate the effort that goes into a post like this.
I also disagree, to an extent. I think total yards are a below average way to measure impact. For instance, TOm Brady threw for over 400 vs the LOB in 2012, but his YPA and total points scored in that game say he had a below average game.
Vs Houston, Lynch had 98. Most of those yards came on 3 runs. For most of the game, Houston controlled the run game and put Seattle into 3rd and long. The scoreboard reflected that, in regulation the offense managed 13 points and struggled to convert third downs.
Vs Carolina, Lynch was shut down, and WIlson had 300. To the tune of 14 total points. If I am a defense, I call that a win. Holding a 300 yard passer to 14 points is not a failure.
At STL, both struggled to do anything, more than half the total yards came on one play, and if not for a short field after a turnover by STL, that game is a loss. 14 total points again.
At the NIners, true enough, Lynch got over 70 yards. but was well under 4 yards a carry, and most important, the Hawks still struggled to get into manageable third downs. Once again, the point total of 17 says that any yardage total by Lynch or Wilson was ineffective.
The Giants did a great job of stopping Lynch. And controlled Wilson. Their defense was tough, but was put in bad situations by Eli all day.

And the home loss to Arizona. I thought Arizona did an incredible job of shutting down Lynch, once again a lot of his yards came on a couple of runs. Less than 4ypa. That was one of the games where I thought the DC killed our play action game by blitzing the two inside zone gaps all day long, they either caught Lynch or got after WIison with that attack a number of times and in the running theme of all the games with low point totals, controlled the Seattle offense on third down.

Stopping the running attack first is not a bad strategy for keeping Seattle out of the endzone, or at least has not been up to now. Do I think we are better equipped to handle that strategy now? For sure. But it doesn't mean it hasn't worked against us before.

To me, the commonality in many of the games where the offense struggled was not control of either Lynch or Wilson. It was an inability if our offensive line to control the LOS in short yardage.

Seahawker86 · Aug 31, 2014

OP. Great read. Really enjoyed it.

Though honestly, to stop ANY offense you have to shutdown the run and the passing. Some teams just lack in either category and we do not. Add in the dual threat we have in Wilson it makes us unstoppable

Scottemojo · Aug 31, 2014

Any team that says stopping Lynch is a priority is simply saying that when they think the Hawks are running, they will be in base D and hedging a safety down to get an 8th player in position. It isn't a statement that Russ can't beat them.

SalishHawkFan · Aug 31, 2014

Scottemojo":1o7686wu said:
SalishHawkFan":1o7686wu said:

Every week during the season opposing fans post the same thing: the key to beating us is to stop Lynch and make Wilson beat us. Slightly more informed fans think that they need to also contain Wilson and force him to throw in the pocket. Week in, week out, these are the "keys" to beating the Hawks.

History says otherwise.

In our three losses in 2013, Lynch ran for 102, 71 and 72 yards. In those three losses, however, Wilson had three of his 5 worst games. His second worst game was the OT win vs Texas. Lynch ran for 98 yds in that game.

Going back to 2012, in our five losses, Lynch ran for 85, 119, 103,105 and 46. In those five losses, Wilson's rating was 62, 45, 38, 97 and 128. 4 of his 5 worst ratings of the year.

The one time in 8 losses that the Hawks saw Lynch get held to low yardage and Wilson have a great game was 2012 vs Miami. The other 7 games, Lynch had 71 yards or more, breaking 100 yards 4 times and the team lost anyways because Wilson had a crappy game. The sole exception being vs Detroit, where Lynch had a great game and Wilson wasn't too shabby either, but they lost anyways because the defense took the day off.

Let's look at Lynch's worst games over the past two years:

Lynch's 5 worst games rushing in 2013 all resulted in wins for Seattle. Two squeakers against Carolina and St. Louis, the other three were all blowouts. Wilson had over 100 rating in 4 of those 5 games and an 86 in the other one.

Lynch was only held to less than 85 yards rushing twice in 2012. We won one game and lost the other. One of those games was the NE game where Wilson carried the team, the other was the aforementioned Miami game where both Lynch and Wilson had an off day.

Teams that focus on stopping Lynch are going to lose. Stopping Lynch only opens up the game for Wilson to romp over you. Teams that let Lynch have a big day but put the screws on Wilson and force him into having a bad day are the only teams that will beat the Seahawks. When an opposing fan says the keys to beating the Hawks are to stop Lynch, you can stop reading right there. They don't know what they're talking about. The only way to beat the Hawks is to force our "game manager" QB to have an off day.

History doesn't lie.

Click to expand...

I appreciate the effort that goes into a post like this.
I also disagree, to an extent. I think total yards are a below average way to measure impact. For instance, TOm Brady threw for over 400 vs the LOB in 2012, but his YPA and total points scored in that game say he had a below average game.
Vs Houston, Lynch had 98. Most of those yards came on 3 runs. For most of the game, Houston controlled the run game and put Seattle into 3rd and long. The scoreboard reflected that, in regulation the offense managed 13 points and struggled to convert third downs.
Vs Carolina, Lynch was shut down, and WIlson had 300. To the tune of 14 total points. If I am a defense, I call that a win. Holding a 300 yard passer to 14 points is not a failure.
At STL, both struggled to do anything, more than half the total yards came on one play, and if not for a short field after a turnover by STL, that game is a loss. 14 total points again.
At the NIners, true enough, Lynch got over 70 yards. but was well under 4 yards a carry, and most important, the Hawks still struggled to get into manageable third downs. Once again, the point total of 17 says that any yardage total by Lynch or Wilson was ineffective.
The Giants did a great job of stopping Lynch. And controlled Wilson. Their defense was tough, but was put in bad situations by Eli all day.

And the home loss to Arizona. I thought Arizona did an incredible job of shutting down Lynch, once again a lot of his yards came on a couple of runs. Less than 4ypa. That was one of the games where I thought the DC killed our play action game by blitzing the two inside zone gaps all day long, they either caught Lynch or got after WIison with that attack a number of times and in the running theme of all the games with low point totals, controlled the Seattle offense on third down.

Stopping the running attack first is not a bad strategy for keeping Seattle out of the endzone, or at least has not been up to now. Do I think we are better equipped to handle that strategy now? For sure. But it doesn't mean it hasn't worked against us before.

To me, the commonality in many of the games where the offense struggled was not control of either Lynch or Wilson. It was an inability if our offensive line to control the LOS in short yardage.

Carolina and St. Louis were squeakers. Against great defenses, those are the kinds of games you're going to get. Yet Wilson posted 115 and 117 ratings. That indicates they didn't stop Wilson. They stopped Lynch. Great defenses are hard to score upon, that's why they're great defenses. However, that doesn't change the fact that stopping Lynch isn't going to beat the Hawks. Stopping Wilson, however, will beat the Hawks, even if you don't have a great defense and you let Lynch run all over you.

And a point you've made again and again because it's correct: You don't GET to take out Lynch's big runs. The reason he made them is because they didn't stop him. Perhaps because Wilson was lighting them up and they were responding to that so it enable Lynch to make those big runs? Which goes back to if don't stop Wilson.....

Scottemojo · Aug 31, 2014

I still maintain that the offense's biggest failing in low scoring games last year was the inability to control the LOS in short yardage, run or pass. Defenses don't change the player they want to stop on a game to game basis, they do it play to play. Not to mention cause and effect. Carolina didn't have a game long goal of stopping Lynch, thus giving the game to Wilson. Carolina has an incredible line and a below average secondary. Matchups played as big a role as any core strategy.

Not to mention that focusing on the effectiveness of the run game or pass as the reason we won or lost virtually ignores the contributions of the defense or special teams. We didn't beat the Broncos because Wilson outdueled Manning, because the Broncos foolishly tried to stop Lynch instead of Wilson, we won because our defense and special teams outscored Manning 16-8.

Largent80 · Aug 31, 2014

We kept 7 wr's, seems to me the passing game is going to be more balanced to the run.

They just have to stop us period. Plus people forget about how important special teams are. We have probably the best kicker and coverage units in the league. A healthy Harvin is going to more than likely give us shorter fields.

Cartire · Aug 31, 2014

Largent80":2o1h1tz0 said:
We kept 7 wr's, seems to me the passing game is going to be more balanced to the run.

They just have to stop us period. Plus people forget about how important special teams are. We have probably the best kicker and coverage units in the league. A healthy Harvin is going to more than likely give us shorter fields.

I only expect see Harvin returning 1 kick a game... :th2thumbs:

SalishHawkFan · Aug 31, 2014

Scottemojo":1ohsy10k said:
I still maintain that the offense's biggest failing in low scoring games last year was the inability to control the LOS in short yardage, run or pass. Defenses don't change the player they want to stop on a game to game basis, they do it play to play. Not to mention cause and effect. Carolina didn't have a game long goal of stopping Lynch, thus giving the game to Wilson. Carolina has an incredible line and a below average secondary. Matchups played as big a role as any core strategy.

Not to mention that focusing on the effectiveness of the run game or pass as the reason we won or lost virtually ignores the contributions of the defense or special teams. We didn't beat the Broncos because Wilson outdueled Manning, because the Broncos foolishly tried to stop Lynch instead of Wilson, we won because our defense and special teams outscored Manning 16-8.

And we beat them because our offense scored 27 points with Lynch only gaining 39 yards and Wilson getting a 123 rating. Holding Lynch to 2.6 ypc didn't help the Broncos stop our offense.

I think you remember the Carolina game wrong. I looked up the play by play. We were 6/13 on third down, but we were 4/4 on third and 5 or less with every first down coming on a pass by Wilson. Carolina was so busy holding Lynch to 2.5 ypc by bringing up their safety that Wilson sliced and diced their secondary on third and short, going 4/4 for 54 yds.

FlyingGreg · Aug 31, 2014

I'm hoping that's every teams game plan this year. We finally have the right parts on offense to destroy teams stacking the box and trying to blitz us out of our scheme.

Bring it on - Harvin will run wild.

v1rotv2 · Aug 31, 2014

The greatest evidence that stopping Lynch is a fool's errand was Super Bowl 48. The Broncos put so much of their resources in stopping him, Wilson was able to beat the hell out of them passing the ball. And now it looks like the Hawk offense will be even better passing the ball. That in itself will bode well for the ground game. Once teams figure out that RW will be tearing them up with his arm the ground game should be even more effective.

ivotuk · Aug 31, 2014

Fabulous post, and great argument, for both sides. I can't come down on one side or the other but lean towards "the fallacy ofstopping Lynch."

But I think what this debate really shows, it's that no matter what defenses focus on, Russell Wilson will take advantage of.

In his rookie year the Chicago game was his "coming of age" game, but he had a second one last year in Houston. To me, Marshawn telling Russell "just take the game over Russ" says that Pete was still holding him back, and like a good little soldier, RW was following orders. But Lynch, in his wisdom knew what direction the team needed to go, and that was for there QB to lead, and everyone else to follow.

Russell is becoming a complete QB and team leader. It's amazing to think that this is only his third year and that he will only get better.

Scottemojo · Aug 31, 2014

ivotuk":3g8zv0a1 said:
Fabulous post, and great argument, for both sides. I can't come down on one side or the other but lean towards "the fallacy ofstopping Lynch."

But I think what this debate really shows, it's that no matter what defenses focus on, Russell Wilson will take advantage of.

In his rookie year the Chicago game was his "coming of age" game, but he had a second one last year in Houston. To me, Marshawn telling Russell "just take the game over Russ" says that Pete was still holding him back, and like a good little soldier, RW was following orders. But Lynch, in his wisdom knew what direction the team needed to go, and that was for there QB to lead, and everyone else to follow.

Russell is becoming a complete QB and team leader. It's amazing to think that this is only his third year and that he will only get better.

Oh, I don't doubt that Wilson is by far the most dangerous weapon on this team. I just don't think rushing yards really tell the story.

WilsonMVP · Aug 31, 2014

SalishHawkFan":1jhdb3vh said:
Every week during the season opposing fans post the same thing: the key to beating us is to stop Lynch and make Wilson beat us. Slightly more informed fans think that they need to also contain Wilson and force him to throw in the pocket. Week in, week out, these are the "keys" to beating the Hawks.

History says otherwise.

In our three losses in 2013, Lynch ran for 102, 71 and 72 yards. In those three losses, however, Wilson had three of his 5 worst games. His second worst game was the OT win vs Texas. Lynch ran for 98 yds in that game.

Going back to 2012, in our five losses, Lynch ran for 85, 119, 103,105 and 46. In those five losses, Wilson's rating was 62, 45, 38, 97 and 128. 4 of his 5 worst ratings of the year.

The one time in 8 losses that the Hawks saw Lynch get held to low yardage and Wilson have a great game was 2012 vs Miami. The other 7 games, Lynch had 71 yards or more, breaking 100 yards 4 times and the team lost anyways because Wilson had a crappy game. The sole exception being vs Detroit, where Lynch had a great game and Wilson wasn't too shabby either, but they lost anyways because the defense took the day off.

Let's look at Lynch's worst games over the past two years:

Lynch's 5 worst games rushing in 2013 all resulted in wins for Seattle. Two squeakers against Carolina and St. Louis, the other three were all blowouts. Wilson had over 100 rating in 4 of those 5 games and an 86 in the other one.

Lynch was only held to less than 85 yards rushing twice in 2012. We won one game and lost the other. One of those games was the NE game where Wilson carried the team, the other was the aforementioned Miami game where both Lynch and Wilson had an off day.

Teams that focus on stopping Lynch are going to lose. Stopping Lynch only opens up the game for Wilson to romp over you. Teams that let Lynch have a big day but put the screws on Wilson and force him into having a bad day are the only teams that will beat the Seahawks. When an opposing fan says the keys to beating the Hawks are to stop Lynch, you can stop reading right there. They don't know what they're talking about. The only way to beat the Hawks is to force our "game manager" QB to have an off day.

History doesn't lie.

Opposing teams are kind of in a bind though if they try to stop Wilson. Pete wants to grind the game out and let our D get rest and win the game for us.
I dont think many teams will stop this offense if everyone is healthy. If they focus on the passing game then Lynch and Wilson running will beat them. If they focus on the running game Wilson and Harvin will explode.
We win either way.

chris98251 · Aug 31, 2014

The passing game has to be respected now, the pedestrian label mediots put on our receivers was shown to be just what it was a stupid statement. Baldwin, Harvin, Kearse all showed what a healthy trio could do in the Super Bowl. Our TE's will also now have a opportunity to be targets with a defense backed off to protect the deep pass. Add a Richardson to the mix with speed on both sides of the field it will open up the underneath routes big time with LB's trying to cover a TE that can run like a receiver or the slot guy who ever we decide to put out there. It also creates huge running lanes for our RB's if they can get to the second level with a host of down field blockers.

brimsalabim · Aug 31, 2014

Scottemojo":2v0scseg said:
SalishHawkFan":2v0scseg said:

And the home loss to Arizona. I thought Arizona did an incredible job of shutting down Lynch, once again a lot of his yards came on a couple of runs. Less than 4ypa. That was one of the games where I thought the DC killed our play action game by blitzing the two inside zone gaps all day long, they either caught Lynch or got after WIison with that attack a number of times and in the running theme of all the games with low point totals, controlled the Seattle offense on third down.

.

Click to expand...

How about Harvin in the flat when they try that again?

Scottemojo · Aug 31, 2014

brimsalabim":pm2qyeum said:
Scottemojo":pm2qyeum said:

SalishHawkFan":pm2qyeum said:

And the home loss to Arizona. I thought Arizona did an incredible job of shutting down Lynch, once again a lot of his yards came on a couple of runs. Less than 4ypa. That was one of the games where I thought the DC killed our play action game by blitzing the two inside zone gaps all day long, they either caught Lynch or got after WIison with that attack a number of times and in the running theme of all the games with low point totals, controlled the Seattle offense on third down.

.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

How about Harvin in the flat when they try that again?

I have no doubt that we are going to see a major transition in our offense this year.

Anthony! · Aug 31, 2014

SalishHawkFan":2wybm33h said:
Every week during the season opposing fans post the same thing: the key to beating us is to stop Lynch and make Wilson beat us. Slightly more informed fans think that they need to also contain Wilson and force him to throw in the pocket. Week in, week out, these are the "keys" to beating the Hawks.

History says otherwise.

In our three losses in 2013, Lynch ran for 102, 71 and 72 yards. In those three losses, however, Wilson had three of his 5 worst games. His second worst game was the OT win vs Texas. Lynch ran for 98 yds in that game.

Going back to 2012, in our five losses, Lynch ran for 85, 119, 103,105 and 46. In those five losses, Wilson's rating was 62, 45, 38, 97 and 128. 4 of his 5 worst ratings of the year.

The one time in 8 losses that the Hawks saw Lynch get held to low yardage and Wilson have a great game was 2012 vs Miami. The other 7 games, Lynch had 71 yards or more, breaking 100 yards 4 times and the team lost anyways because Wilson had a crappy game. The sole exception being vs Detroit, where Lynch had a great game and Wilson wasn't too shabby either, but they lost anyways because the defense took the day off.

Let's look at Lynch's worst games over the past two years:

Lynch's 5 worst games rushing in 2013 all resulted in wins for Seattle. Two squeakers against Carolina and St. Louis, the other three were all blowouts. Wilson had over 100 rating in 4 of those 5 games and an 86 in the other one.

Lynch was only held to less than 85 yards rushing twice in 2012. We won one game and lost the other. One of those games was the NE game where Wilson carried the team, the other was the aforementioned Miami game where both Lynch and Wilson had an off day.

Teams that focus on stopping Lynch are going to lose. Stopping Lynch only opens up the game for Wilson to romp over you. Teams that let Lynch have a big day but put the screws on Wilson and force him into having a bad day are the only teams that will beat the Seahawks. When an opposing fan says the keys to beating the Hawks are to stop Lynch, you can stop reading right there. They don't know what they're talking about. The only way to beat the Hawks is to force our "game manager" QB to have an off day.

History doesn't lie.

Great post spot on, and this year I think stopping Wilson will be more imperative for other teams, but I am not so sure they will be able to. Better o-line, Better WR, and Rw is a 3rd year guy that seems to have figured it all out, which is really scary for the rest of the league

The myth of stopping Lynch

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