Justin Houston

So, hear me out on this.

Justin Houston remains unsigned by KC.

He's been hit with the non-exclusive Franchise tag, which means other teams can sign him to an offer sheet, and if they do not match they lose him in exchange for two first-round draft picks.

Under the terms of the tag they would have to pay him $13M in 2015 and at least 15.6 in 2016 if they tagged him again.

Currently the Seahawks have $11.3M in available cap space for 2015.

Currently the Chiefs have $2.4M in available cap space for 2015.

They can free up an additional $5.5M but cutting Brandon Mebane.

They can free up an additional $3M by cutting Tony McDaniel.

Resigning RW and BW should not significantly impact the cap in 2015.

The Seahawks do not have a 2015 1st round pick which means salaries for drafted players should be relatively low.

The Seahawks have brought a lot of D-linemen in and even kicked the tires on Kevin Hardy but so far no significant additions at Leo/Outside pass rusher. In addition we lost our backup Leo.

Chris Avril is more effective as a situational pass rusher than as a 3-down player. Even still, our pass rush is anemic without him, as seen in the Super Bowl

Justin Houston is a prototype Leo, and arguably the best outside pass rusher in the NFL at age 26.

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QUESTION: Could the Seahawks sign Houston to an offer sheet after the NFL draft, and if KC doesn't match, give up 2016 and 2017 1st round picks?

Keep in mind present value of very late future first round draft picks is very very low.

If we can somehow put an offer sheet together with a 1st year cap hit of $15M or more, he might be ours. How amazing would our defense be?

Hypothetically, it seems possible and it would be great to have Houston become a Seahawk... but I doubt that we could afford him... but the bigger issue imo is doing so would upset the salary balance of the team.

Example, the strong rumor is Bennett is not happy with his contract now... and Mebane's about to get cut for not re-structuring. How upsetting would it be to at least those two if we were to sign Houston to a 2015 cap hit anywhere above $10M.

It just wouldn't work out.

Those same things applied to the Percy Harvin trade and that didn't stop them

A-Dog":yb31krqc said:

Those same things applied to the Percy Harvin trade and that didn't stop them

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And not the most convincing example to do something like that again. But when we did that we weren't looking to extend Wilson and Wagner yet. I am aware of the salary cap trends, but this is a much longer term decision. Also, they gave a top contract to a WR, when none of the other WR in the group could command anything close to that on the open market. On the Seahawks you just got great values on two players in Bennett and Avril that have potential to earn a lot more. Not Houston money, but the gap is much closer compared to Harvin and the next best WR on the team when we traded for him.

2 first rd picks for any player just so you can pay them top dollar is a lot to give up;. The FO has no qualms about trading 1st rounders, but when they did it was much closer to the draft. This would be a decision where you don't know the ramifications for 1-2 years.

Two more things for the sake of argument.

1. Has any player changed teams as a result of the non-exclusive franchise tag?
2. Are there rules about which draft the 1st rd picks must come from?

No 1st rd picks for like 5 years would be crazy

Basis4day":1t3gv1cf said:

Two more things for the sake of argument.

1. Has any player changed teams as a result of the non-exclusive franchise tag?
2. Are there rules about which draft the 1st rd picks must come from?

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Maybe Matt Cassel?

MizzouHawkGal":27a12iag said:

Basis4day":27a12iag said:

Two more things for the sake of argument.

1. Has any player changed teams as a result of the non-exclusive franchise tag?
2. Are there rules about which draft the 1st rd picks must come from?

Click to expand...

Maybe Matt Cassel?

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Cassel signed his tender with the Patriots and was traded about three weeks later.

Basis4day":2hdgnce7 said:

MizzouHawkGal":2hdgnce7 said:

Basis4day":2hdgnce7 said:

Two more things for the sake of argument.

1. Has any player changed teams as a result of the non-exclusive franchise tag?
2. Are there rules about which draft the 1st rd picks must come from?

Click to expand...

Maybe Matt Cassel?

Click to expand...

Cassel signed his tender with the Patriots and was traded about three weeks later.

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The Pats never franchised Matt Cassell. You don't franchise a backup QB which is what Cassell was to them so this is really apples to oranges example.

hawkfan68":2v5o5la5 said:

Basis4day":2v5o5la5 said:

MizzouHawkGal":2v5o5la5 said:

Basis4day":2v5o5la5 said:

Two more things for the sake of argument.

1. Has any player changed teams as a result of the non-exclusive franchise tag?
2. Are there rules about which draft the 1st rd picks must come from?

Click to expand...

Maybe Matt Cassel?

Click to expand...

Cassel signed his tender with the Patriots and was traded about three weeks later.

Click to expand...

The Pats never franchised Matt Cassell. You don't franchise a backup QB which is what Cassell was to them so this is really apples to oranges example.

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Incorrect he was in fact tagged with the non exclusive franchise tag in 2009. It was whatever year Todd Haley came in and Kansas City won the AFCW before Peyton showed up. Baltimore embarrassed them at Arrowhead in the divisional playoffs and Kansas City and Cassel imploded from there.

He's probably going to get paid around the same as Suh, so I would pass.

No one player outside of an elite QB is worth that much against the salary cap.

Keep the two 1st round picks and spend that money on two or three very good free agents.

MizzouHawkGal":21htcsim said:

Incorrect he was in fact tagged with the non exclusive franchise tag in 2009. It was whatever year Todd Haley came in and Kansas City won the AFCW before Peyton showed up. Baltimore embarrassed them at Arrowhead in the divisional playoffs and Kansas City and Cassel imploded from there.

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ok...that makes more sense. He was tagged when he was with the Chiefs not Pats. I misread the posts and thought someone mentioned he was franchised by the Patriots.

massari":2ymrqqx2 said:

He's probably going to get paid around the same as Suh, so I would pass.

No one player outside of an elite QB is worth that much against the salary cap.

Keep the two 1st round picks and spend that money on two or three very good free agents.

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He'll get less then Suh because he's a LB but in a pure 3/4 and a pass rusher, not an MLB. I expect 10-12M he's just that good guys and integral to what Kansas City does on defense.

But I 'd say don't even go for it because we have players that do the same things he does at a high level but far cheaper already on the roster let alone what's coming in the draft and training camp.

hawkfan68":1xj5a75g said:

MizzouHawkGal":1xj5a75g said:

Incorrect he was in fact tagged with the non exclusive franchise tag in 2009. It was whatever year Todd Haley came in and Kansas City won the AFCW before Peyton showed up. Baltimore embarrassed them at Arrowhead in the divisional playoffs and Kansas City and Cassel imploded from there.

Click to expand...

ok...that makes more sense. He was tagged when he was with the Chiefs not Pats. I misread the posts and thought someone mentioned he was franchised by the Patriots.

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No - Cassel was tagged by New England

Pats Place Franchise Tag on Cassel

Cassel signed the tender two days after being tagged. He was then traded to Kansas City

Matt Cassel Traded from New England to Kansas City

The Seahawks are at (or, a month or two away from being at) a place in their salary cap development where it is more imperative than ever to be building and replacing through the draft.

TBH I was kind of surprised that they took on Graham's salary, although I still like the move.

All to say that giving up two more picks and taking on Houston's salary wouldn't be smart for the org and the team's long-term health. The Hawks core is way too young and has the potential to be successful for way too long to be making moves like this.

If you've got a very limited window -- think the Broncos, the Saints, the Patriots -- I understand it, but for teams like the Hawks, no way.

Popeyejones":24r3ykgt said:

The Seahawks are at (or, a month or two away from being at) a place in their salary cap development where it is more imperative than ever to be building and replacing through the draft.

TBH I was kind of surprised that they took on Graham's salary, although I still like the move.

All to say that giving up two more picks and taking on Houston's salary wouldn't be smart for the org and the team's long-term health. The Hawks core is way too young and has the potential to be successful for way too long to be making moves like this.

If you've got a very limited window -- think the Broncos, the Saints, the Patriots -- I understand it, but for teams like the Hawks, no way.

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Houston is trying to break the bank. Seattle is exploring low rent options like Guion. No way this happens.

Spleenhawk2.0":1kakpdfp said:

hawkfan68":1kakpdfp said:

MizzouHawkGal":1kakpdfp said:

Incorrect he was in fact tagged with the non exclusive franchise tag in 2009. It was whatever year Todd Haley came in and Kansas City won the AFCW before Peyton showed up. Baltimore embarrassed them at Arrowhead in the divisional playoffs and Kansas City and Cassel imploded from there.

Click to expand...

ok...that makes more sense. He was tagged when he was with the Chiefs not Pats. I misread the posts and thought someone mentioned he was franchised by the Patriots.

Click to expand...

No - Cassel was tagged by New England

Pats Place Franchise Tag on Cassel

Cassel signed the tender two days after being tagged. He was then traded to Kansas City

Matt Cassel Traded from New England to Kansas City

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I stand corrected. Thanks Spleenhawk2.0.

Two firsts and Suh money is thinkable for JJ Watt, and that's about it.

I don't think Houston would put up the same numbers in a rotation heavy 4-3 as he would as the star attraction in a 3-4 either.

Two firsts sounds worse than it is. Barring a total catastrophe those picks will be in the last third of the round... especially with the addition of Houston, quite likely in the last four picks. Additionally, these are future picks, so their present value is lower than a first rounder.

As far as him putting up worse numbers, that's arguable. He'd be playing on a superior defense, against teams that will be playing from behind and forced to pass more, with a secondary that can generate coverage sacks and a team that doesn't blitz much. Bennett and Avril by necessity played a lot of snaps this year, and especially in the case of Avril it may have been too many. Leo is the featured position in our scheme and arguably the one position where you need an elite player (Earl Thomas may be a rare exception to this). You could argue that in KC Tamba Hali actually plays the featured position in their 3-4' playing the weak side OLB, similar to Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware when he was with the Cowboys. And regardless of individual sack numbers, he would clearly have a huge impact on our pass rush, whether that results in higher individual sack totals, higher team sack totals, more interceptions, or simply a more effective pass defense, particularly on 3rd downs.

There is plenty of precedence for this. The Jared Allen trade immediately springs to mind. There are plenty of historical examples of teams acquiring elite DEs prior to making a Super Bowl run. Charles Haley with the Cowboys, Simeon Rice with Tampa Bay, Reggie White with Green Bay. If you look at the 4-3 teams that have won Superbowls, most have had elite DEs... Aside from the aforementioned teams, you have the Rams with Kevin Carter, the Colts with Freeney, the Giants with Strahan and others.

It's Clear that we missed Clemons this past year. It's clear that we are very thin at outside pass rusher. It's clear that pass rush is the weakest part of our defense.

For those that say only a QB is worth that kind of outlay, DE is the second most coveted position in football, as evidenced by having the second his Franchise Tag number. You go get a QB, and then you go get a guy who can get to the QB. This has never been more true than now.

Lastly,the Seahawks are in a championship window. We don't know how long that will last. Success can be fleeting. If there ever was a time to sacrifice future picks, it's now. Combine that with our success finding gems in later rounds, and it makes a lot of sense. If this move nets us a couple more rings, even at the expense of a few down years, it would be worth it.

I would do this in a heartbeat.

I'd like to add that while we were at or near the top in most defensive statistical categories, we were only 9th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage, and a pathetic 28th in opponent 4th down conversion percentage. As good as our defense was, we had trouble getting off the field in critical situations.