Arizona ranked #1 by DVOA

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratings

I have a hard time understanding it, but I think some of it has to do with the fact that even in our losses we have for the most part dominated those 2 games. One of the big issues was penalties and non penalties that cost us that game that Football outsiders doesnt really account for. But our offense has put up almost 500 yards in both losses, and moved the ball very well. But Penalties at bad times and turnovers have been costly. Like they are for any team.


Seattle is also a top 10 team which I completely agree with. Obviously had they made 1 more third down conversion in their last two losses they are likely 4-2 instead of 2-4.

The Rams are at 17th, which pretty much is a result of the offense. Gurley is one player in a game made for a team.

SF is ranked dead last at 32.

Anyways, I will look to Kearly for more input because he seems to have a much deeper understanding of this than anybody I know.

San Francisco is last? That surprises me. There are a lot of really bad teams this year. Some because of injury, some because of schedule but mostly just because they are bad like Houston, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay to list a few.

MizzouHawkGal":ox9y7qvj said:

San Francisco is last? That surprises me. There are a lot of really bad teams this year. Some because of injury, some because of schedule but mostly just because they are bad like Houston, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay to list a few.

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Have to agree, (Also don't see how AZ is ranked #1)

I haven't really watched those teams games, but I think SF's game against AZ really skews things. And even the Pittsburgh game because while they started to move the ball later in the game. It most likely didn't have much value since the situation, deficit, etc is all taken into account on each play. The damage was already done when it counted. I'd have to think those two games are heavy weights dragging them down in the metrics.

However we will have to wait on Kearly for more information .

Well you know rankings do not stand for crap if you lose the first playoff game. Just saying.



Not trying to be a dick, but these rankings are pure garbage and I don't promote them. Remember any given sunday the worst can beat the best.

Also not surprised that San Fran is last. We got our asses beat 2 weeks in a row and lost a nail bitter to Eli Manning. Niners are a mess that kind of are pulling themselves together maybe. We will see.

If the hawks drop a 40 burger on us and we dont score well then who even cares anymore lol

ringless":3p16uymt said:

MizzouHawkGal":3p16uymt said:

San Francisco is last? That surprises me. There are a lot of really bad teams this year. Some because of injury, some because of schedule but mostly just because they are bad like Houston, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay to list a few.

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Have to agree, (Also don't see how AZ is ranked #1)

I haven't really watched those teams games, but I think SF's game against AZ really skews things. And even the Pittsburgh game because while they started to move the ball later in the game. It most likely didn't have much value since the situation, deficit, etc is all taken into account on each play. The damage was already done when it counted. I'd have to think those two games are heavy weights dragging them down in the metrics.

However we will have to wait on Kearly for more information .

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Obviously someone has dirt on someone.....he he he :stirthepot: :twisted:

rlkats":e5udyous said:

Well you know rankings do not stand for crap if you lose the first playoff game. Just saying.



Not trying to be a dick, but these rankings are pure garbage and I don't promote them. Remember any given sunday the worst can beat the best.

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There are some people on this board that put a lot of stock in DVOA as it's not an opinion based. But of course there will always be variables. Refs, weather, injuries, luck, strange bounces, tipped passes etc

I love DVOA and this still surprises me.

MizzouHawkGal":vs4jdish said:

San Francisco is last? That surprises me. There are a lot of really bad teams this year. Some because of injury, some because of schedule but mostly just because they are bad like Houston, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay to list a few.

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Doesn't surprise me at all.

The didn't just lose to Pitt and Ari. They got boatraced.

I think the Rams are the wildcard here. Say what you want to about dominating the game Ringless, fact is you guys never had a lead in the game against the Rams.

Our passing game was nearly flawless against the Cards and Seahawks....and pure garbage against the other teams. I'm assuming GB and PIT are also in the top 10 here, but I doubt their defenses are as good as Seattle's or Arizona's.

My point in bringing that up is, while last game Gurley was a one man wrecking crew, if our passing game performs good against good defenses and average against bad defenses, odds are at some point this evens out and we'll have a league average passing attack.

I would imagine that's all we would need to jump into the top 10.

rlkats":voxh42dy said:

Well you know rankings do not stand for crap if you lose the first playoff game. Just saying.



Not trying to be a dick, but these rankings are pure garbage and I don't promote them. Remember any given sunday the worst can beat the best.

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I'm gonna side with Ringless on this one (hard for me to do), if only because DVOA has/is/always will be Kearly's defense for how mighty the Hawks have been since 2012, and the smoking gun for the Cardinals inevitably being a fraud..."see, I told ya so!!".

If the Niners ever get to be DVOA #1 in the league, I'm gonna rush out and get this plate.

Marvin49":3jflf363 said:

MizzouHawkGal":3jflf363 said:

San Francisco is last? That surprises me. There are a lot of really bad teams this year. Some because of injury, some because of schedule but mostly just because they are bad like Houston, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay to list a few.

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Doesn't surprise me at all.

The didn't just lose to Pitt and Ari. They got boatraced.

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That opening win against the Vikings has to count for something, esp. considering where the Vikings are now.

EDIT: 49ers were 7th after week 1.

I don't think Arizona will be #1 in DVOA at the end of the year. However, I do think they will be a playoff team.

That's a far better situation than Seattle is in right now. I can't ever remember seeing a more painful season for a very good, healthy team.

NINEster":1w1ymvs5 said:

Marvin49":1w1ymvs5 said:

MizzouHawkGal":1w1ymvs5 said:

San Francisco is last? That surprises me. There are a lot of really bad teams this year. Some because of injury, some because of schedule but mostly just because they are bad like Houston, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay to list a few.

Click to expand...

Doesn't surprise me at all.

The didn't just lose to Pitt and Ari. They got boatraced.

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That opening win against the Vikings has to count for something, esp. considering where the Vikings are now.

EDIT: 49ers were 7th after week 1.

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That Vikings game is likely not as favorable as it normally would be. They likely are factoring in that the Vikings had zero prep information due to a completely new offense and coaching staff. It didn't help that they only played Kap like 12 snaps in preseason or that the Vikings would be starting a game at the time they would normally be going to bed and finishing close to 1am per their body clock.

The next two games pretty much confirmed that the Vikings game likely would have looked completely different if it were any other week than week one.

The cardinals won't be number one in DVOA for long. Their schedule has come against the dregs of the NFL so far. Their offense is decent and they have padded their stats against pretty bad defenses. Just looking at DVOA, it shows that the Cards have only beaten teams in the bottom seven of DVOA and lost to both teams in the top 17 they have played. That seems to show that they aren't as strong as some think they are. I think the Cards will end up somewhere near the middle of the league both in DVOA and record.

How the hell is Baltimore ranked so high? If they are as good as their DVOA indicates so far, the Cards are in for a really tough game. I think the Cards are pretty evenly matched by their next two opponents and then the losses will start piling up after that.

The Seahawks will win the division again. They are ranked in the top 10 DVOA and have gotten their toughest opponents out of the way early. With their typical slow start to the season coinciding with playing their toughest opponents early, the Seahawks have little wriggle room to play with, but should be just fine.

rideaducati":xi6bvkj2 said:

The cardinals won't be number one in DVOA for long. Their schedule has come against the dregs of the NFL so far. Their offense is decent and they have padded their stats against pretty bad defenses. Just looking at DVOA, it shows that the Cards have only beaten teams in the bottom seven of DVOA and lost to both teams in the top 17 they have played. That seems to show that they aren't as strong as some think they are. I think the Cards will end up somewhere near the middle of the league both in DVOA and record.

How the hell is Baltimore ranked so high? If they are as good as their DVOA indicates so far, the Cards are in for a really tough game. I think the Cards are pretty evenly matched by their next two opponents and then the losses will start piling up after that.

The Seahawks will win the division again. They are ranked in the top 10 DVOA and have gotten their toughest opponents out of the way early. With their typical slow start to the season coinciding with playing their toughest opponents early, the Seahawks have little wriggle room to play with, but should be just fine.

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I have been waiting for you. Well DVOA does take into account who you play. I by no means expect Arizona to finish as #1 either because I can see that they aren't #1. But they have been more impressive in their games in common. Why wasn't Seattle more dominating against Detroit?

Also the best team Seattle has beat is Ranked #29 in those rankings in their wins. Or a bottom 4 team as opposed to bottom 7. Just comparing Apples to Apples my friend :th2thumbs: We have 3 wins in common thus far and 1 loss in common or the same record in games played to put it simply. However we have just been a little more dominant in those 4 games.

But sure after week 9 I think we have the same record dropping a game against you guys and Cinci the following week and I think I can see Seattle going on a 5 game winning streak right now pretty easily.

ringless":13g3b8sq said:

rideaducati":13g3b8sq said:

The cardinals won't be number one in DVOA for long. Their schedule has come against the dregs of the NFL so far. Their offense is decent and they have padded their stats against pretty bad defenses. Just looking at DVOA, it shows that the Cards have only beaten teams in the bottom seven of DVOA and lost to both teams in the top 17 they have played. That seems to show that they aren't as strong as some think they are. I think the Cards will end up somewhere near the middle of the league both in DVOA and record.

How the hell is Baltimore ranked so high? If they are as good as their DVOA indicates so far, the Cards are in for a really tough game. I think the Cards are pretty evenly matched by their next two opponents and then the losses will start piling up after that.

The Seahawks will win the division again. They are ranked in the top 10 DVOA and have gotten their toughest opponents out of the way early. With their typical slow start to the season coinciding with playing their toughest opponents early, the Seahawks have little wriggle room to play with, but should be just fine.

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I have been waiting for you. Well DVOA does take into account who you play. I by no means expect Arizona to finish as #1 either because I can see that they aren't #1. But they have been more impressive in their games in common. Why wasn't Seattle more dominating against Detroit?

Also the best team Seattle has beat is Ranked #29 in those rankings in their wins. Or a bottom 4 team as opposed to bottom 7. Just comparing Apples to Apples my friend :th2thumbs: We have 3 wins in common thus far and 1 loss in common or the same record in games played to put it simply. However we have just been a little more dominant in those 4 games.

But sure after week 9 I think we have the same record dropping a game against you guys and Cinci the following week and I think I can see Seattle going on a 5 game winning streak right now pretty easily.

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The Seahawks and the Cardinals play two different styles. The Seahawks are defensively oriented while the Cards rely on their offense to win games. If comparing the two styles and saying "apples to apples", you're missing how the two teams play. Seattle has beaten top teams in the past few seasons, the cards have yet to win consistently vs top teams. There is the difference. Both teams can beat the bad teams on their schedule, but so far this season, neither can beat the top teams. I think Seattle has a better chance than the cards do to beat the better teams once they reach the playoffs. Seattle has had a fourth quarter lead in every loss this year and the offense is getting better each week.

I'm not so much looking at the wins as it is the losses. The Seahawks have lost to top 10 teams and the rest of their schedule eases up a bit. The Cards still have to play their toughest opponents outside of the division and still have two head to head with Seattle. Recently, the cards haven't fared well against the better teams in the league and I don't think that will change this season.

I still think the Cards finish 9-7. They have their toughest opponents at home, so they might be able to win one that I don't think they would win on neutral ground or on the road, so maybe 10-6...But I think that will still be one game behind the Seahawks.