I did some trend analysis on division winners, playoff outcomes, etc, since division realignment in 2002. Based on my analysis, I came up with the following guidelines to predict a season.
1. There are, on average, 6 new playoff teams each year.
2. A team with a first round bye will miss the playoffs the next year.
3. A team with a top 5 draft pick will make the playoffs the next year.
4. Teams that improve enough from top 5 pick to playoffs usually either have a new QB or new coach, or both.
5. The NFC South hasn't had a repeat winner. Its certainly possible this trend ends this year.
6. One or two of the new playoff teams is back after a one year hiatus.
7. A 1 vs 1 seed matchup in the Super Bowl is rare. Its only happened once since realignment (2009).
Remember, these are just trends, not saying they have to continue. So with that said, here are my predictions.
NFC
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Buccaneers
5. 49ers
6. Saints
AFC
1. Broncos
2. Texans
3. Bengals
4. Patriots
5. Chiefs
6. Browns (yes, the Browns)
The new playoff teams are TB, NO, DAL, KC, and CLE. I only went with 5. 6 is just an average. The lowest number I've seen is 4. CLE and KC are in because of new coaches (and KC's new QB). CLE actually has a decent team around Weeden; they just need him to develop. I'm predicting he will.
ATL is that team with a first round bye that misses the playoffs the next year. They overachieved a little (should've been 11-5 last year based on points for/against), winning a lot of close games against questionable opponents. I believe their defense takes a step back this year after losing Abraham and relying on a rookie starting CB. And their competition in the NFC South improved. I think all four teams could be within a game of each other at 9-7 to 10-6. New Orleans returns to the playoffs after a one year hiatus now that they have Sean Payton back, so they are one of my wild card teams.
The NFC East is a big mystery to me. I don't know how well RG3 will play if he can't run well. He could still be great, but I don't know. I want to pick Philly as a team to go from worst to first. I like Chip Kelly, and I think he'll do great things in Philly, but I think year one is an adjustment period for the team. And the Giants are so hard to figure out because of how inconsistent Eli Manning is. They could be anywhere from 6-10 to 11-5. Lately the NFC East winner has been rotating between all four teams, so its Dallas's turn. They have a lot of talent and are just as capable as any other team to win the division.
My Super Bowl prediction is Seahawks vs Texans.