Smelly McUgly
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I don't know if people use DYAR or read FO's weekly DYAR rankings, but if someone does, can you chime in on how I should look at DYAR? It seems like a big influence on it is "successful plays" and "failure plays," but those are tied into basically how "effective" the gain of yardage was on a particular play. So, for example, if Marshawn Lynch gains seven rushing yards on third-and-nine, the value of that (which likely leads to a punt) is less than if Lynch gains seven rushing yards on first-and-ten (because the success rate of getting a first down on second-and-three before a team has to punt is fairly high, so Lynch was successful at likely gaining a first down for his team eventually).
OK, if I have all that explanation right...isn't this just basically judging how much each particular play moved the team's win probability up or down? Couldn't I just read a WP chart and get a general idea of the value of each player based on that? What makes DYAR different than just a cursory aggregation of a player's effect on his team's win probability?
OK, if I have all that explanation right...isn't this just basically judging how much each particular play moved the team's win probability up or down? Couldn't I just read a WP chart and get a general idea of the value of each player based on that? What makes DYAR different than just a cursory aggregation of a player's effect on his team's win probability?