jewhawk":3b6xac3n said:
kearly":3b6xac3n said:
I don't know where you got those percentages, so I can't do the math myself, but I'm guessing that if you added them up you'd have Seattle and SF as 10 win, maybe 11 win teams. That feels like an undershoot for the two best NFL teams playing schedules that are easier this season. Some of those percentages feel overly conservative. I assume those percentages are based on historic rates at those betting lines. But judging win probably based on a betting line is probably a mistake when two teams are extremely mismatched.
I used the percentages from the chart
here that converts point spreads to win probabilities. I think you're underestimating the variance in the NFL where bad teams beat good teams every week. It's also worth noting that things change so much year to year that opening point spreads at the beginning of the season are somewhat deflated until there's a clearer picture of how the teams will be this year, so you're right that the early lines seem conservative based on how good we think the Seahawks will continue to be. If the Seahawks and 49ers pick up where they left off last year and the weaker teams on the schedule don't improve, then those lines and corresponding win percentages will be higher by the times those games are played.
I also don't think the schedule will be easier. All four NFC South teams could be tough, Houston and the Giants/Redskins should still be good, and the Colts should improve from the 6-7 win team they really were last year. Winning 12+ against our schedule is certainly possible, but if the season could be played out 1000 times I would expect our average to be about 10.5-11 wins.
kearly":3b6xac3n said:
The real betting line for Tennessee at Seattle should probably be -20 or -25, something like that, but of course a gambling service would never offer a line like that.
Actually, they would. If week 6 comes around, Seattle is still playing at the historically great level they were the second half of last year, and Tennessee is one of the league's worst teams, the line could be close to 20. The Patriots were 21 point favorites against the Colts in the Suck For Luck year. They were also favored by 20 or more in four games in 2007. Based on the chart, a 20 point favorite should expect to win 93.1% of the time. Even if the Seahawks continue at last year's second half level, I would expect even a bad NFL team to get 7 wins out of 100 in Seattle.
Regardless, this discussion is kind of a sidetrack from the point of my first post that facing the Texans and Colts on the road and the Titans and Jaguars at home isn't a disadvantage from the other way around. It's just a difference of being moderate favorites in all four games versus small favorites in two and heavy favorites in two. You're right about the five 10am games being a disadvantage, but we have the advantage of playing Minnesota instead of Green Bay. Overall, I don't see the schedule favoring the 49ers in a way that would expect to impact the standings much at all.
Well, it shouldn't be at -14. Do you honestly believe that the Titans have a 20% win probability? Please say no, because to me, that is way off base. Seattle does not turn the ball over and they crush bad offenses at home. The Titan's defense blows. Whatever odds an inferior team has of a fluke victory are squashed by those factors. If the Titans beat us, it would be the stunner of all stunners. When was the last time that a good Seattle team lost to a terrible team in Seattle, anyway? Add em up, it's not 20%.
Seattle's home record in Qwest during 10+ win seasons is 31-1.*
And that's against all teams, great, good, bad, and awful.
I also think a 10.5 to 11 win projection is a minor undersell. The NFL has a lot of variance, but usually the elite teams perform on the better half of those variances (Patriots, Peyton Manning teams, etc). If the 2013 Seahawks played 100 seasons, I do not find it likely that they would have enough 9-7 seasons to cancel out the 13-3 ones.
Last year, the game at Detroit scared me more than hosting the 49ers, and next year the opener at Carolina scares me more than hosting the 49ers. We root for a weird football team that smacks good teams at home yet finds ways to lose to struggling outfits at 10am. The Ravens are probably the only other NFL team that I could say that about.
It's not really that I think you are wrong, I just think the Seahawks are very context dependent and not that cut and dry to project. Most teams don't have the same extreme splits and weird nonsensical shit that we have to deal with. If we were fans of almost any other team, I'd completely agree with your point on the schedule variance.
You make a good point on Green Bay, but that was out of the schedule makers hands. The schedule makers control where and when, not who. And I think the schedule makers made the tough games much more winnable while making the gimme's slightly less gimme for SF, while doing the opposite for Seattle. And that's a significant exchange, IMO.
If there is one way that I can agree with you, it's that the Seahawks are such brutal under-achievers at 10am that it might be somewhat of a good thing to get good teams at that slot. If we played Tennessee at 10am, they would actually have a prayer. On that point, I'd agree that getting Tennessee in Seattle might not be something to downplay. Seattle's schedule setup is good for winning 11 or so games, but very tough for winning 13+. Had it been flipped, they'd have more risk of a 9-7 season but would have a much easier path to 13-3. In a distant sense, I could see how you think this balances.
On the schedule difficulty, I'd be surprised if next year's won't be easier. Ours was the 4th hardest in 2012. The NFC South is rising and the NFC North fading, but the NFC North was really tough last season. Their combined DVOA was right up there with the NFC West. The NFC South has Atlanta and then a bunch of Kansas City Chiefs, teams that could be good if certain things break right. It's more of a dangerous lineup than a tough one.
* (Interestingly, that one loss was in 2007 to a then 0-4 Saints team. Three weeks later, the Saints were 4-4. Even when the Saints are bad, Drew Brees remains a terror).