The question looming for Harley Davidson is whether they can deviate away from their all encompassing lifestyle brand to sell motorcycles to a younger generation. Despite being the 800 lb gorilla in the industry and having bought out and killed competitors there is a demographic cliff looming for them: Their target demo that have been loyal customers for decades are now getting to be above riding age. That same target demo is also completely adverse to changes to the underlying design and mechanics and is more than willing to pay more for that branding than better equipped and designed and less expensive bikes.
To wit, their product line is less diverse, again to satiate the core customers they've had for decades.
Harley Davidson at one point bought an intriguing company called Buell and gutted the entire company. Buell had several different types of bike, was forward thinking in aesthetics and technology, and had more nascent appeal among bike enthusiasts who weren't brand loyal.
So where are the parallels to the NFL here?
1. The long time viewers (4+ decades) of the NFL are going through two changes - their disposable income is going down as they end their careers (which like Harley is at odds with the premium the command). As such their advertising value is also shrinking. This will have an impact not only on what advertisers are willing to pay for NFL spots BUT will also have an impact on who chooses to advertise on NFL spots. For folks like me you really get a picture of the audience based on the advertisements. The ad programmers try their best to strike a balance of specific targets and general targets but there's a reason 60 minutes has so many quality of life pharma ads while Always Sunny does not.
Secondly, they are remaining a captive audience by the medium they use. The advertising value on TV, one of the chiefly important revenue streams will be impacted by people 35 and under who in general, don't utilize TV as the sole source of entertainment or at least primary. You can see this in the multitude of stories about cord cutters (of which I am one) but in 10-15 years time what will the outlook be for over the air advertising revenues?
2. Some large proportion of the audience imagines the NFL as some immutable status quo (Much like a large proportion of Harley fans think anything but air cooling is as wrong as sin). Read the ad nauseum comments about missing how brutal and raw and pure the NFL was back in the 70s and 80s. This nostalgia works well so long as new generations similarly lap it up but this is where both the NFL and Harley are running into issues - younger generations, especially with Harley view them as dentist weekend pirate cosplay whether they're even bike enthusiasts or not. For many younger fans of the NFL watching Ricardo Lockette be on death's door after that hit doesn't conjur up feelings of "OH MAN, THE NFL IS WAR! YAH!" it merely reinforces all the real negative impacts that the game itself has on the participants. In fact, one of the starkest divergences is the ability to stomach obviously detrimental hits and in some cases elevate those as the essence of football. For people that have a wide breadth of games, both sport and otherwise, I don't believe this has to be the case but I know more than a handful would shout me down for suggesting the NFL could learn a lot from Rugby.
The connection to the NFL will always be tribal on some level just as brand loyalty is to Harley. An older generation views that brand loyalty in some small part as ownership of the brand itself. But what if the brand image being projected works really well on one cohort while being a complete turnoff to another? This is where cost benefit analysis comes into play, obviously, but for both the NFL and Harley it seems like most initiatives are borne out of trying to extract as much profit out already loyal customers by spurning potential new ones. Again, I allude to the premium that Harley commands among their core demographic that internalizes it as a lifestyle. Without the cultural cache they will be hard pressed to maintain profit margins and as time moves forward it is becoming apparent that Harley wants to ram their idea of a customer down the entire market's throat. From turning show rooms into schwag rooms to how their salespeople interact with the customer ("You man enough to ride a Harley?").
Looping that back to the NFL, I believe a large proportion of NFL fans view it as part of their core identity - not quite to the level of college football but still very strong affinity in many markets. This is great in the short to medium turn but has the potential to alienate a wider following of the game in the long term.
3. Outward resentment not only from other fans but from the league itself towards potential new and different viewers. This dovetails back into point 2 with regard to how fans view their place in football and how football places in their lives. The sense of ownership is the exact reason issues revolving around Kaep/Reid/Bennett are couched in terms of "it makes business sense to do X thing" but using a very near term outlook. Yes, it alienating old or longtime viewers isn't 'good business' per se BUT it will happen regardless if you do anything but remain stagnant.
You could also use TD celebrations as another piece of evidence in the dichotomy and one where the NFL has yielded.
Speaking towards resentment towards other fans, there is a bit of self selection here especially on sites like Seahawks.net and Fieldgulls where obviously we go out of our way to discuss everything and anything around the team but...there is a definite entitlement abundant about 'fanning' the right way. And what football should be. And it's all self serving to validate how one's self does it. Cause how else does one justify spending ~20 hours a week talking about a game we don't even participate in?
4. Being the 800 lb gorilla is great until it isn't. And when it turns bad it's because the 800 lb gorilla starved to death resting on the laurels of being the 800 lb gorilla. There are changes under way right now demographically (and Mods, please please please excuse the political content of this point because the underlying point isn't the politics inherent but a reflection of how one cohort differs from another) where a younger generation is
A. trending away from conservative identity. Much was written in the aftermath of the 2016 about how millenials et al are less likely to identify as either Republican or Democrat but when polled on specific issues and specific approval of current power holders more than just lean Democrat.
B. Don't have the same reverence for cultural touchstones of Boomers. Whenever I hear an older person complaining about how young people ruin everything I just remind myself that it's a complaint about how young people don't appreciate the same exact things in the same exact way as the older person. That's just natural though, not an outrage.
C. Have way less ingrained modes of entertaining themselves. Referencing point B, look at how some bristle at all the 'not football' things currently injected into the stadium and TV experience.
D. Less disposable income at the same place in life as previous generations by a confluence of factors. This is especially the case with Harley but you could apply the underlying mechanics to ticket sales in the NFL. Imagine a future where the vast vast majority of NFL fans have never stepped foot inside the stadium of their favorite NFL team. And don't want to given the actual experience of gameday from the trip, the parking, the milling about, the other fans (don't get me started on stadium restrooms and the tragedy of the urinal commons), the inferior views, etc etc. And would be hard pressed to justify financially if they did want to. Assuming that ticket prices decline to clear the market though, this would impact the profitability of the NFL itself but also diminish the potential to enjoy the public funds that buoy their stadium projects in the first place.
5. Apathy from long standing fans about the future of the NFL - fans who only care about the 10-15 year outlook and ensuring it aligns with what they already know and love. That certainly is a way to view the NFL and the world at large but it undercuts the value of input from those people. How are people concerned with the 20-30 outlook supposed to find useful information from people that implicitly state "let this thing die after I die"?
While there are some key differences between the NFL and Harley the similarities in catering to an aging hardcore demographic and potentially painting themselves into an intractable or less profitable corner is there and its a conundrum steeped in not having to adapt by virtue of market power over competitors. But both companies are hurtling towards the same question: "Have we done enough to replace the ultra loyal ranks willing to pay more for an outdated product with a similar consumer?" and in my estimation the answer is no.
To wit, their product line is less diverse, again to satiate the core customers they've had for decades.
Harley Davidson at one point bought an intriguing company called Buell and gutted the entire company. Buell had several different types of bike, was forward thinking in aesthetics and technology, and had more nascent appeal among bike enthusiasts who weren't brand loyal.
So where are the parallels to the NFL here?
1. The long time viewers (4+ decades) of the NFL are going through two changes - their disposable income is going down as they end their careers (which like Harley is at odds with the premium the command). As such their advertising value is also shrinking. This will have an impact not only on what advertisers are willing to pay for NFL spots BUT will also have an impact on who chooses to advertise on NFL spots. For folks like me you really get a picture of the audience based on the advertisements. The ad programmers try their best to strike a balance of specific targets and general targets but there's a reason 60 minutes has so many quality of life pharma ads while Always Sunny does not.
Secondly, they are remaining a captive audience by the medium they use. The advertising value on TV, one of the chiefly important revenue streams will be impacted by people 35 and under who in general, don't utilize TV as the sole source of entertainment or at least primary. You can see this in the multitude of stories about cord cutters (of which I am one) but in 10-15 years time what will the outlook be for over the air advertising revenues?
2. Some large proportion of the audience imagines the NFL as some immutable status quo (Much like a large proportion of Harley fans think anything but air cooling is as wrong as sin). Read the ad nauseum comments about missing how brutal and raw and pure the NFL was back in the 70s and 80s. This nostalgia works well so long as new generations similarly lap it up but this is where both the NFL and Harley are running into issues - younger generations, especially with Harley view them as dentist weekend pirate cosplay whether they're even bike enthusiasts or not. For many younger fans of the NFL watching Ricardo Lockette be on death's door after that hit doesn't conjur up feelings of "OH MAN, THE NFL IS WAR! YAH!" it merely reinforces all the real negative impacts that the game itself has on the participants. In fact, one of the starkest divergences is the ability to stomach obviously detrimental hits and in some cases elevate those as the essence of football. For people that have a wide breadth of games, both sport and otherwise, I don't believe this has to be the case but I know more than a handful would shout me down for suggesting the NFL could learn a lot from Rugby.
The connection to the NFL will always be tribal on some level just as brand loyalty is to Harley. An older generation views that brand loyalty in some small part as ownership of the brand itself. But what if the brand image being projected works really well on one cohort while being a complete turnoff to another? This is where cost benefit analysis comes into play, obviously, but for both the NFL and Harley it seems like most initiatives are borne out of trying to extract as much profit out already loyal customers by spurning potential new ones. Again, I allude to the premium that Harley commands among their core demographic that internalizes it as a lifestyle. Without the cultural cache they will be hard pressed to maintain profit margins and as time moves forward it is becoming apparent that Harley wants to ram their idea of a customer down the entire market's throat. From turning show rooms into schwag rooms to how their salespeople interact with the customer ("You man enough to ride a Harley?").
Looping that back to the NFL, I believe a large proportion of NFL fans view it as part of their core identity - not quite to the level of college football but still very strong affinity in many markets. This is great in the short to medium turn but has the potential to alienate a wider following of the game in the long term.
3. Outward resentment not only from other fans but from the league itself towards potential new and different viewers. This dovetails back into point 2 with regard to how fans view their place in football and how football places in their lives. The sense of ownership is the exact reason issues revolving around Kaep/Reid/Bennett are couched in terms of "it makes business sense to do X thing" but using a very near term outlook. Yes, it alienating old or longtime viewers isn't 'good business' per se BUT it will happen regardless if you do anything but remain stagnant.
You could also use TD celebrations as another piece of evidence in the dichotomy and one where the NFL has yielded.
Speaking towards resentment towards other fans, there is a bit of self selection here especially on sites like Seahawks.net and Fieldgulls where obviously we go out of our way to discuss everything and anything around the team but...there is a definite entitlement abundant about 'fanning' the right way. And what football should be. And it's all self serving to validate how one's self does it. Cause how else does one justify spending ~20 hours a week talking about a game we don't even participate in?
4. Being the 800 lb gorilla is great until it isn't. And when it turns bad it's because the 800 lb gorilla starved to death resting on the laurels of being the 800 lb gorilla. There are changes under way right now demographically (and Mods, please please please excuse the political content of this point because the underlying point isn't the politics inherent but a reflection of how one cohort differs from another) where a younger generation is
A. trending away from conservative identity. Much was written in the aftermath of the 2016 about how millenials et al are less likely to identify as either Republican or Democrat but when polled on specific issues and specific approval of current power holders more than just lean Democrat.
B. Don't have the same reverence for cultural touchstones of Boomers. Whenever I hear an older person complaining about how young people ruin everything I just remind myself that it's a complaint about how young people don't appreciate the same exact things in the same exact way as the older person. That's just natural though, not an outrage.
C. Have way less ingrained modes of entertaining themselves. Referencing point B, look at how some bristle at all the 'not football' things currently injected into the stadium and TV experience.
D. Less disposable income at the same place in life as previous generations by a confluence of factors. This is especially the case with Harley but you could apply the underlying mechanics to ticket sales in the NFL. Imagine a future where the vast vast majority of NFL fans have never stepped foot inside the stadium of their favorite NFL team. And don't want to given the actual experience of gameday from the trip, the parking, the milling about, the other fans (don't get me started on stadium restrooms and the tragedy of the urinal commons), the inferior views, etc etc. And would be hard pressed to justify financially if they did want to. Assuming that ticket prices decline to clear the market though, this would impact the profitability of the NFL itself but also diminish the potential to enjoy the public funds that buoy their stadium projects in the first place.
5. Apathy from long standing fans about the future of the NFL - fans who only care about the 10-15 year outlook and ensuring it aligns with what they already know and love. That certainly is a way to view the NFL and the world at large but it undercuts the value of input from those people. How are people concerned with the 20-30 outlook supposed to find useful information from people that implicitly state "let this thing die after I die"?
While there are some key differences between the NFL and Harley the similarities in catering to an aging hardcore demographic and potentially painting themselves into an intractable or less profitable corner is there and its a conundrum steeped in not having to adapt by virtue of market power over competitors. But both companies are hurtling towards the same question: "Have we done enough to replace the ultra loyal ranks willing to pay more for an outdated product with a similar consumer?" and in my estimation the answer is no.