Russell Wilson and the 3 year, $45.5 million baseline

[BadgerVid]

It will be hilarious when our QB holds out until we go 0-4 preseason. See how fast we come up off the money then.

LOL........

He's not going to hold out.

It would be funny, If he did hold out it would not take a deal to get him in, only that they take the tag off the table which would be as good as saying goodbye to Wilson.

RW holding out while he still had a signed contract covering that time is something I would really have to see to believe...and then I would have doubts I think.

 

[aawolf]

Numbers are coming out in the Cam Newton contract, making the offer in the thread title look extremely low. I heard a breakdown on NFL radio this morning regarding the guaranteed money in Cam's contract. The contract is worth $103.76 million over 5 years and will include $67.6 million paid in the first three years--out of that, he'll get a $41 million this year! That is ONE FRONT-END LOADED CONTRACT WITH LOTS OF GUARANTEES!
If Russell is looking in this ballpark, then he'll be asking for probably be asking for $110 million over 5 years, more than half guaranteed. The price keeps going up and up and up. I think the Cam contract will be the floor of this deal and the Luck contract, if it gets done, will be the ceiling. Do we want to wait that long?

http://overthecap.com/cam-newton-joins- ... contracts/

 

[hawknation2015]

Another interesting thing to note is that Cam's deal was brokered by Wilson's former agent, Bus Cook. I can't help but think the team would be much closer to getting a deal done with Wilson if he had not eschewed Cook for someone with much less experience in getting these kind of deals done.



2015 base salary reduced from $14.67 million to $1 million with a $7.5 million roster bonus. Overall cap hit reduced to $13 million.

Russell's signing bonus should be much larger . . . between $30-40 million. Average per year should be between $21-23 million. $60 million in guaranteed money looks about right to me.

 

[McGruff]

The thing I notice about that contract is that it is pretty much a real 5 year deal. The structure of it is completely different than what we've seen with Kaepernick, Dalton and Tannehill. Newton will likely see that entire deal. As a result it is relatively cap friendly through the length of the deal.

That's the kind of contract we should be shooting for.

 

[tdlabrie]

Apologies to all the posters in this thread. I admit I haven't read them all and I am probably duplicating many others. That said, one and only one thing remains crystal clear to me: unless Lloyd's of London offers some imaginative insurance, Wilson will accept some deal before the season starts to avoid a catastrophic injury and loss of a bajillion dollar contract. Everything else on both sides of the negotiation is bluff and bluster.

And if I'm wrong and Wilson does play, how conservative will he be to protect himself? Don't know about you, but if I had that kind of money on the line, I'd drop to the ground if I felt the wing change!

 

[hawknation2015]

Apologies to all the posters in this thread. I admit I haven't read them all and I am probably duplicating many others. That said, one and only one thing remains crystal clear to me: unless Lloyd's of London offers some imaginative insurance, Wilson will accept some deal before the season starts to avoid a catastrophic injury and loss of a bajillion dollar contract. Everything else on both sides of the negotiation is bluff and bluster.

And if I'm wrong and Wilson does play, how conservative will he be to protect himself? Don't know about you, but if I had that kind of money on the line, I'd drop to the ground if I felt the wing change!

I also believe this to be true. For Russell's agent to say that they are perfectly fine with him playing out this year because Russell does not have a house or car payment -- which is funny on its own, given that Russell is making over a million dollars this year -- is disingenuous at best. There is a logical incentive to want to secure Russell's future before he risks the possibility of injury during a contract year, and any ethical representative would counsel his client on the importance of securing his future in an inherently violent game like football. IMO, his agent has created a disingenuous public posture in a laughable attempt to diminish the team's leverage.

In addition to the injury risk during a contract year, there is also the risk of some public diminishment of Russell's reputation if a deal is not done soon. The longer this goes, the more people will begin to see him as greedy, which would be unfortunate. Russell has been No. 1 in jersey sales for a while now, but is currently No. 4 behind Brady, Mariota, and Winston. Maybe that's not an indication of much due to the post-draft bump for rookies and the showing of support for Brady post-Super Bowl/deflategate penalties, and hopefully it does not become a trend. More importantly, will as many sponsors continue to seek Russell to represent them while there is this uncertainty about his future in Seattle? I doubt that is an issue now, but it could become an issue if the contract talks become messy.

 

[vonstout]

I didn't go back to see if this was already posted, but I found it interesting. With Schneider's (and Pete's) contract ending in 2016, which guy will ownership back if this goes on? I'm starting to think that we are going to franchise him for two years if they can't sign him to a team friendly deal. Wilson's stayed healthy for 3 seasons by avoiding big hits, but if we continue to sacrifice salary on the OL, he is going to continue to take hits behind the line of scrimmage. Time will tell, but it appears that they don't want to pay him over $100 million for 5 years and sacrifice guys like Wagner to do it. Wagner has been waiting for an offer for quite a while now and I hope he doesn't get upset about it. If they don't sign Wilson soon, I hope they sign Wagner.

 

[Anthony!]

hawknation2015 it was reported throughout the media that the only offer Seattle gave to Wilson was the 4 year $80 million and that was it, and the ball was in Wilson's camp.

You remember before the Superbowl that articles were already coming out stating that Wilson will become the highest paid player, that was by the media. Look at the video below, they said people in the know told them, article suggest that it's the Seahawks FO.

source (January 10, 2015): http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... estpaid-qb

Then another article came out that said the numbers would be in the $120 million. Article below pretty much a guess by the media suggesting it to be around 120 million.

source (January 29, 2015): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... 20-million

This article below is the one that stated that the Seahawks are not close to the 120 million but 80 million for 4 years.

source (May 8, 2015): http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ions-apart


So who really knows what's going on, It could all be fluff pieces by the media since they really have no idea what really is the deal. Anthony! didn't make up the numbers himself, it was the media that is making it all up.

All you hear now is people spinning every little thing Wilson is doing and not doing to make it all about his contract, since that's all they can get out of him. He miss two days of OTA and all of a sudden it's because of his contract. There's no talks that they hear of from Wilson and Seahawks so they make articles about how they might not even reach a deal. Eventually one news report will get it right, if you guess enough, then one of them will come true.

Wilson's agent had stated the only reason why it's taking so long is it's because they want to make sure the numbers are correct when it comes to guaranteed money and front loaded money. I think Wilson is thinking about the impact of what it would have on the team and they are making sure the number is correct, just like how Cam's contract is working right for their team. Wilson doesn't have it easy because this team is a team full of superstars so the contract have to be in the right numbers to be able to keep most of those superstars. This is what I believe is why things are taking longer than they should.

I hope you are right

 

[Anthony!]

Apologies to all the posters in this thread. I admit I haven't read them all and I am probably duplicating many others. That said, one and only one thing remains crystal clear to me: unless Lloyd's of London offers some imaginative insurance, Wilson will accept some deal before the season starts to avoid a catastrophic injury and loss of a bajillion dollar contract. Everything else on both sides of the negotiation is bluff and bluster.

And if I'm wrong and Wilson does play, how conservative will he be to protect himself? Don't know about you, but if I had that kind of money on the line, I'd drop to the ground if I felt the wing change!

I also believe this to be true. For Russell's agent to say that they are perfectly fine with him playing out this year because Russell does not have a house or car payment -- which is funny on its own, given that Russell is making over a million dollars this year -- is disingenuous at best. There is a logical incentive to want to secure Russell's future before he risks the possibility of injury during a contract year, and any ethical representative would counsel his client on the importance of securing his future in an inherently violent game like football. IMO, his agent has created a disingenuous public posture in a laughable attempt to diminish the team's leverage.

In addition to the injury risk during a contract year, there is also the risk of some public diminishment of Russell's reputation if a deal is not done soon. The longer this goes, the more people will begin to see him as greedy, which would be unfortunate. Russell has been No. 1 in jersey sales for a while now, but is currently No. 4 behind Brady, Mariota, and Winston. Maybe that's not an indication of much due to the post-draft bump for rookies and the showing of support for Brady post-Super Bowl/deflategate penalties, and hopefully it does not become a trend. More importantly, will as many sponsors continue to seek Russell to represent them while there is this uncertainty about his future in Seattle? I doubt that is an issue now, but it could become an issue if the contract talks become messy.

I disagree that the longer it goes on the more people will see him as greedy. Right now the only offer that has been talked about is 4 years 80 mil and we have nothing stating how much Wilson is asking. With Tannehiil and Cam both singing for more unless new numbers come out about an offer to Wilson it makes the FO look cheap not Wilson look greedy.

 

[Anthony!]

I didn't go back to see if this was already posted, but I found it interesting. With Schneider's (and Pete's) contract ending in 2016, which guy will ownership back if this goes on? I'm starting to think that we are going to franchise him for two years if they can't sign him to a team friendly deal. Wilson's stayed healthy for 3 seasons by avoiding big hits, but if we continue to sacrifice salary on the OL, he is going to continue to take hits behind the line of scrimmage. Time will tell, but it appears that they don't want to pay him over $100 million for 5 years and sacrifice guys like Wagner to do it. Wagner has been waiting for an offer for quite a while now and I hope he doesn't get upset about it. If they don't sign Wilson soon, I hope they sign Wagner.

I do not believe they can tag him for 2 years, that all hits the cap that year and right now just year1 would be over 20 mil and might go up if Luck signs. Year 2 would be over 25 mil. I do not believe they can absorb that kind of cap hit. Without being able to spread it out like a normal contract would.

 

[DJrmb]

I didn't go back to see if this was already posted, but I found it interesting. With Schneider's (and Pete's) contract ending in 2016, which guy will ownership back if this goes on? I'm starting to think that we are going to franchise him for two years if they can't sign him to a team friendly deal. Wilson's stayed healthy for 3 seasons by avoiding big hits, but if we continue to sacrifice salary on the OL, he is going to continue to take hits behind the line of scrimmage. Time will tell, but it appears that they don't want to pay him over $100 million for 5 years and sacrifice guys like Wagner to do it. Wagner has been waiting for an offer for quite a while now and I hope he doesn't get upset about it. If they don't sign Wilson soon, I hope they sign Wagner.

I do not believe they can tag him for 2 years, that all hits the cap that year and right now just year1 would be over 20 mil and might go up if Luck signs. Year 2 would be over 25 mil. I do not believe they can absorb that kind of cap hit. Without being able to spread it out like a normal contract would.

The Seahawks have positioned themselves very well in preparation for negotiating with their Franchise QB. If they have to play hard ball with Wilson over the next 2 years (which I'm sure they don't want to if at all possible) they have planned out plenty of cap room to do so. Seattle is projected to have over 40M in cap space next year and more than 60m of cap in 2017. Not to mention they have over 10M in space remaining this year, which may or may not all be there still by year end, but any remainder can be rolled forward into the next years cap as additional space.They could no doubt absorb a cap hit of 25m if need be.

 

[hawknation2015]

Apologies to all the posters in this thread. I admit I haven't read them all and I am probably duplicating many others. That said, one and only one thing remains crystal clear to me: unless Lloyd's of London offers some imaginative insurance, Wilson will accept some deal before the season starts to avoid a catastrophic injury and loss of a bajillion dollar contract. Everything else on both sides of the negotiation is bluff and bluster.

And if I'm wrong and Wilson does play, how conservative will he be to protect himself? Don't know about you, but if I had that kind of money on the line, I'd drop to the ground if I felt the wing change!

I also believe this to be true. For Russell's agent to say that they are perfectly fine with him playing out this year because Russell does not have a house or car payment -- which is funny on its own, given that Russell is making over a million dollars this year -- is disingenuous at best. There is a logical incentive to want to secure Russell's future before he risks the possibility of injury during a contract year, and any ethical representative would counsel his client on the importance of securing his future in an inherently violent game like football. IMO, his agent has created a disingenuous public posture in a laughable attempt to diminish the team's leverage.

In addition to the injury risk during a contract year, there is also the risk of some public diminishment of Russell's reputation if a deal is not done soon. The longer this goes, the more people will begin to see him as greedy, which would be unfortunate. Russell has been No. 1 in jersey sales for a while now, but is currently No. 4 behind Brady, Mariota, and Winston. Maybe that's not an indication of much due to the post-draft bump for rookies and the showing of support for Brady post-Super Bowl/deflategate penalties, and hopefully it does not become a trend. More importantly, will as many sponsors continue to seek Russell to represent them while there is this uncertainty about his future in Seattle? I doubt that is an issue now, but it could become an issue if the contract talks become messy.

I disagree that the longer it goes on the more people will see him as greedy. Right now the only offer that has been talked about is 4 years 80 mil and we have nothing stating how much Wilson is asking. With Tannehiil and Cam both singing for more unless new numbers come out about an offer to Wilson it makes the FO look cheap not Wilson look greedy.

Both things are likely to happen to a certain degree. The difference is it doesn't really matter whether people think the Seahawks are cheap. The FO does things every year that people disagree with or find odd, and it hasn't stopped them yet.

On the other hand, the public's perception of Wilson does have an effect on his endorsement opportunities. If people start to view him as selfish for wanting more money than any other player, and hurting his team in the process, that could eventually impair his reputation in the eyes of many.

I do not believe they can tag him for 2 years, that all hits the cap that year and right now just year1 would be over 20 mil and might go up if Luck signs. Year 2 would be over 25 mil. I do not believe they can absorb that kind of cap hit. Without being able to spread it out like a normal contract would.

Cam's contract had zero effect on next year's franchise tag, as his cap hit is only $13 million, and Luck's contract (if he signs one) is unlikely to have any effect next year for the same reasons. Luck's hypothetical new contract would need to increase his cap hit this year by over $10 million just to figure into the equation; not likely. To increase the 2016 franchise tag by just a million dollars, his cap hit this year would need to increase by $15 million. Last time I checked, the Colts were in the bottom half of the league in cap space.

Both Cam and Luck will probably have an effect on the 2017 franchise tag amount, but that will still likely be less than 120% of the 2016 franchise tag (around $20.3 million). 120% of $20.3 million would be $24.36 million for 2017. That's an average of $22.3 million over those two seasons, which is right around the average that Wilson should reasonably expect to sign for . . . and we get to keep his 2015 salary in place, meaning we save the $5-8 million in cap space that would have otherwise gone to the prorated portion of his signing bonus.

Oh, and here's an article about Newton's deal that speaks in part to what we were discussing yesterday:

Length of contract: Negotiations are different for every player, but for a player of Newton's caliber at the most premium position in all of sports, teams will look for longer contracts. Why? To extend the length of time the club has control of the player, and for cost control that will beat inflation. With NFL salaries rising substantially with the ever-growing cap -- especially at quarterback -- locking a top-tier player down at 2015 "average per year" rates is the smart move for a front office, with the caveat that they obviously believe his play will continue at a steady pace and/or improve significantly.

Russell Wilson is reportedly looking for a shorter four-year contract extension, which would give him the leverage to renegotiate another contract sooner -- at presumably much higher rates -- so the length of Cam's deal is important. Perhaps Newton's big cash payout in the first three years was an incentive in order to get him to agree to that five-year extension -- not to mention an incentive to sign early, before the season starts.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/6/3/86 ... 1429227724

 

[brimsalabim]

You think the young man who spends his off time playing with dying children at the Seattle Children's hospital will come of looking greedy?????? Really? The same guy who has been to two super owls in his first three season while being the lowest paid quarterback in the league? That's the guy you think is greedy? The guy who arranges flights for his team teammates to Hawaii? Him? Really? The one who attends funerals on behalf of the franchise? The guys who is working hard at OTA's as I type this? I don't see greedy here. No how no way. Michael Bennett on the other hand ....well

 

[Ad Hawk]

Cam's contract had zero effect on next year's franchise tag, as his cap hit is only $13 million, and Luck's contract (if he signs one) is unlikely to have any effect next year for the same reasons. Luck's hypothetical new contract would need to increase his cap hit this year by over $10 million just to figure into the equation; not likely. To increase the 2016 franchise tag by just a million dollars, his cap hit this year would need to increase by $15 million. Last time I checked, the Colts were in the bottom half of the league in cap space.

Both Cam and Luck will probably have an effect on the 2017 franchise tag amount, but that will still likely be less than 120% of the 2016 franchise tag (around $20.3 million). 120% of $20.3 million would be $24.36 million for 2017. That's an average of $22.3 million over those two seasons, which is right around the average that Wilson should reasonably expect to sign for . . . and we get to keep his 2015 salary in place, meaning we save the $5-8 million in cap space that would have otherwise gone to the prorated portion of his signing bonus.

This was helpful and informative. Thanks, hn2015.

 

[hawknation2015]

You think the young man who spends his off time playing with dying children at the Seattle Children's hospital will come of looking greedy?????? Really? The same guy who has been to two super owls in his first three season while being the lowest paid quarterback in the league? That's the guy you think is greedy? The guy who arranges flights for his team teammates to Hawaii? Him? Really? The one who attends funerals on behalf of the franchise? The guys who is working hard at OTA's as I type this? I don't see greedy here. No how no way. Michael Bennett on the other hand ....well

I don't think the perception would be right, which is why I said it would be unfortunate. Just like I don't think the team is actually "cheap" when they are just trying to keep as many of their players as they possibly can under the salary cap. But the longer this conversation goes on about why Wilson wants over $22 million a year, instead of $20 million a year, the more people will begin to gain that impression (rightly or wrongly). It's just even more incentive for both sides to get a deal done this off-season. It would also obviously add more stability to the team entering a year where they expect to contend for another championship.

 

[onanygivensunday]

When considering Newton's contract and Russell's potential contract, keep this in mind for guaranteed money.

Newton was already guaranteed $14.67M in 2015 because the Panthers exercised his 5th year option... so you need to subtract from what is being claimed as the fully guaranteed portion of his contract ($60M)... leaving $45.33M in new guaranteed money.

Russell will likely get a very similar amount in guaranteed money.,, likely slightly more ($46M?).

 

[Russ Willstrong]

Cam's contract had zero effect on next year's franchise tag, as his cap hit is only $13 million, and Luck's contract (if he signs one) is unlikely to have any effect next year for the same reasons. Luck's hypothetical new contract would need to increase his cap hit this year by over $10 million just to figure into the equation; not likely. To increase the 2016 franchise tag by just a million dollars, his cap hit this year would need to increase by $15 million. Last time I checked, the Colts were in the bottom half of the league in cap space.

Both Cam and Luck will probably have an effect on the 2017 franchise tag amount, but that will still likely be less than 120% of the 2016 franchise tag (around $20.3 million). 120% of $20.3 million would be $24.36 million for 2017. That's an average of $22.3 million over those two seasons, which is right around the average that Wilson should reasonably expect to sign for . . . and we get to keep his 2015 salary in place, meaning we save the $5-8 million in cap space that would have otherwise gone to the prorated portion of his signing bonus.

This was helpful and informative. Thanks, hn2015.

Those projections are misleading. There are big contracts forthcoming. Based on Bob Condotta's coverage and Joel Corry's projection for exclusive franchise tag in 2016 and 2017 the cost is much greater.
The exclusive franchise tag currently projects to $25.18 million in 2016 but will decrease if any of the quarterbacks with the five highest 2016 salaries are released or rework contracts to lower salary cap numbers before the 2016 franchise tag designation period ends (March 2 this year). Based on the projected number, a second franchise tag for Wilson in 2017 would be $30.216 million, a 20 percent increase over his 2016 franchise number.


An average of 27.6 million over two years while he is tagged. Then he reaches the market and most estimate a healthy RW in his prime may be worth atleast 25 million in free agency. Now you can see why he is willing to play out his rookie contract at 1.5 million this year--The Seahawks are unwilling to give him a pay raise in 2015 anyway.
Russell could potentially make 80 million in 3 years from 2016-2018. Seahawks offered a 4-year 80 million extension which covers 2016-2019.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

By most estimates Wilson was likely to settle for less IF 2015 salary was on the table. That's why some experts like John Clayton feels they aren't too far apart.
I can see Seahawks giving him a 10 million dollar raise in 2015 as he has been long due a raise, then an average of 20 million per year for the next 4 years. Something in the line of 4 year extension worth 90 million is very reasonable and could have sealed the deal early on. Now that Cam Newton's got a 5-year $103 million contract I'm not so sure.

 

[hawknation2015]

Cam's contract had zero effect on next year's franchise tag, as his cap hit is only $13 million, and Luck's contract (if he signs one) is unlikely to have any effect next year for the same reasons. Luck's hypothetical new contract would need to increase his cap hit this year by over $10 million just to figure into the equation; not likely. To increase the 2016 franchise tag by just a million dollars, his cap hit this year would need to increase by $15 million. Last time I checked, the Colts were in the bottom half of the league in cap space.

Both Cam and Luck will probably have an effect on the 2017 franchise tag amount, but that will still likely be less than 120% of the 2016 franchise tag (around $20.3 million). 120% of $20.3 million would be $24.36 million for 2017. That's an average of $22.3 million over those two seasons, which is right around the average that Wilson should reasonably expect to sign for . . . and we get to keep his 2015 salary in place, meaning we save the $5-8 million in cap space that would have otherwise gone to the prorated portion of his signing bonus.

This was helpful and informative. Thanks, hn2015.

Those projections are misleading. There are big contracts forthcoming. Based on Bob Condotta's coverage and Joel Corry's projection for exclusive franchise tag in 2016 and 2017 the cost is much greater.
The exclusive franchise tag currently projects to $25.18 million in 2016 but will decrease if any of the quarterbacks with the five highest 2016 salaries are released or rework contracts to lower salary cap numbers before the 2016 franchise tag designation period ends (March 2 this year). Based on the projected number, a second franchise tag for Wilson in 2017 would be $30.216 million, a 20 percent increase over his 2016 franchise number.


An average of 27.6 million over two years while he is tagged. Then he reaches the market and most estimate a healthy RW in his prime may be worth atleast 25 million in free agency. Now you can see why he is willing to play out his rookie contract at 1.5 million this year--The Seahawks are unwilling to give him a pay raise in 2015 anyway.
Russell could potentially make 80 million in 3 years from 2016-2018. Seahawks offered a 4-year 80 million extension which covers 2016-2019.

Could you provide a link? I would be interested to see how you are getting these figures, i.e. how you expect the average of the Top 5 QB salaries from this year (currently $20.3 million) to increase by that huge margin. As shown above, Newton's new cap hit is only $13 million this year, so it will have no effect. Luck's cap hit is also unlikely to rise enough this year to make a substantial impact, even if he signs a new contract this year.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

Not very hard to find links when the names are provided you.