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Super Bowl Trek: Nemesis …
5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks vs. the 49ers …
Can anyone contain the mojo surrounding this Seattle Seahawks team? If you could bottle it, you could sell it on the Black Market as one whale of an illicit drug. For the 2nd game in a row, the Seahawks scored 50 points on an opponent – the first time that an NFL team has done that since 1950. In a word, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks look unstoppable. The task this Sunday at Century Link Field is straightforward – win and the Seahawks are in the playoffs. But it is far from simple. Standing in the way of making their playoff dreams a reality … is their long time Nemesis, the San Francisco 49ers. When last the Seahawks and 49ers met back on October 18th (Week 7) at Candlestick Park … a then fledgling offense under a wet behind the ears Russell Wilson lost 13-6 in a hard fought slugfest. Oh how both teams have changed since then. Can the Seahawks knock off the mighty 49ers and march boldly in to the playoffs? Here are 5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks this Sunday …
Key #1: Contain the Young Commander …
There is a new captain at the helm of the ship of San Francisco’s Offense since the last time Seattle and the 49ers met. In an almost unprecedented move for a championship caliber team, head coach Jim Harbaugh changed signal callers in the middle of a season, benching Alex Smith in favor of former Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Colin Kaepernick. And the 2nd year quarterback has responded to the challenge. Here are his numbers since he assumed the captain’s chair 6 weeks ago …
[tdo=11]Colin Kaepernick’s 2012 Statistics …[/tdo]
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Kaepernick’s numbers are interesting, particularly if you compare them with those of former starter Alex Smith this year …
[tdo=10]Colin Kaepernick vs. Alex Smith[/tdo]
As you can see, Kaepernick’s numbers are very similar to those of Alex Smith. So why make a change at all? That's a question that a lot of 49ers fans are asking themselves, as Smith had a QB Rating of 96.1 in the 4th Quarter last year. Only Aaron Rodgers had less turnovers from the QB Position in 2011, so many Niners fans are left scratching their heads. BUT, prior to last year's 13-3 breakout season ... Smith had strung together several mediocre seasons and only once in the 5 years prior had guided the team to a winning season. That and the fact that Alex Smith was only 12 for 26 (46.2% Comp Rate) and 1 for 13 on 3rd Down in the NFC Championship Game last season may have spelled his doom. Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers appear to be saying to themselves, "We know what we have in Alex Smith (a game manager only) and believe that Kaepernick has a higher ceiling." Kaepernick does have a better arm than Smith and adds a new dimension to the 49er Offense with his mobility. Regardless of the reasons though, Kaepernick will be the man the Seahawks face this weekend. Before we continue our discussion of Kaepernick, let's take a look at the main targets for the 49ers this season ...
[tdo=8](2012) 49ers Top Receiving Targets[/tdo][tr]
Those are the numbers on the season. But again, we had a change of quarterbacks 6 weeks ago. Here are the distribution of passes since Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting QB ...
[tdo=5]Distribution of Passes (Week 10-15)[/tdo]
The offensive numbers since Kaepernick took over are very revealing. Crabtree has been a whopping 1/3 of the 49ers passing offense – even more of a go to option than when Alex Smith was this team’s starting QB.
You would think that with such a disparity, that stopping Crabtree in essence means stopping the 49ers passing attack. But Seattle’s secondary (which looks stout on paper) has yielded sizeable amounts of real estate to receivers in recent weeks.
Though the Seahawks come in to this contest having allowed an average of only 197.6 Passing Yards/Game (3rd Best in the league), over the last 7 games, the Seahawks secondary has allowed …
Detroit’s Titus Young to get … 9 Catches … for 100 Yards receiving (11.1 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 46 yard catch and 2 TD.
Miami’s Davon Bess to catch … 7 Passes … for 129 Yards (a 18.4 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 39 yard catch.
Chicago’s Brandon Marshall to have … 10 Catches … for 165 Yards (a 16.5 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 56 yard catch that nearly cost the Seahawks the win.
Buffalo’s Steve Johnson to snag… 8 Passes … for 115 Yards (a 14.4 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 25 yard catch and 1 TD.
In the case of Detroit and Miami, teams had simply decided that because Seattle’s Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner were so good … that they would attack the Seahawks 3rd CB (who was Marcus Trufant) and hit the slot receivers instead. Before he was injured, Trufant was getting burned 72.4% of the time according to Stats Inc. (the 2nd worst Burned Percentage among all 3rd CB’s in football). The numbers bore that out, as Ryan Tannehill was 8 for 8 on passes to slot receivers in that game.
With Chicago’s Brandon Marshall … and this last game with Steve Johnson – that didn’t appear to be the case at all. Those are those teams’ #1 receivers – players who should be primarily drawing coverage from Browner and Sherman. Lost in the shuffle of Seattle’s 50 point victory is the fact that the secondary allowed 4 passes of 20 yards or more against (what was statistically) one of the worst passing offenses in the entire league. That’s a trend that CANNOT continue.
At Candlestick Park back on October 18th, Frank Gore led the 49ers in catches (with 5) against a fully operational Seahawks secondary. Just how operational Seattle’s secondary is going to be remains a question very much up in the air. Safety Jeron Johnson (who’s brought some real attitude to the defense) did not practice on Friday and is listed as Questionable for this game. Richard Sherman also had his PED suspension appeal hearing on Friday. With Sherman, the Hawks stand a much better chance of shutting down Michael Crabtree. Without him and with Walter Thurmond still Questionable for this game with a hamstring issue (Thurmond was a limited participant on Friday and will be a game time decision), I’m not as optimistic.
This past Sunday, the Patriots lost starting CB Alfonso Dennard to injury ... and it was his backup, Kyle Arrington, who gave up what proved to be the game winning 38 yard touchdown reception to Crabtree in the 4th Quarter. Kaepernick averaged 15.4 Yards per completion in that game and all 4 of his touchdown passes covered 24 yards or more.
Though it’s likely that he will be able to play on Sunday, Hawks fans should be hoping and praying that the league doesn’t do the unforeseen and suspend Richard Sherman prior to this game. That doesn’t look like it will happen until next week though, so as far as this game is concerned, the Hawks should be in decent shape.
That said, this is a 49ers team that CAN be beaten. The Rams shocked the Niners 16-13 in Overtime in part because they were able to bring a lot of pressure on Kaepernick, sacking him 3 times and forcing him in to making a critical mistake on a poor pitch (which became a fumble returned for a TD) to Ted Ginn, Jr. Kaepernick has been known to make mistakes, as he has 7 fumbles on the season. So, bringing pressure on him will certainly be crucial to the Seahawks success.
Though the Niners come in to this game as one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL (their 25.5 Points/Game Average is 8th Best) … there have been some definite chinks in the armor when it comes to their passing game that should be noted …
[tdo=4]49ers Passing Offense vs. Seahawks Pass Defense …[/tdo]
Notice that last statistic in particular. The fact that the 49ers have given up the 7th most sacks in the league should give the Hawks Defense and the 12th Man hope this Sunday. With that in mind, here are a couple of key matchups along the trenches …
RT Anthony Davis vs. LDE’s Red Bryant and Bruce Irvin…
Anthony Davis has been an extremely good run blocker and pass defender since he was chosen in the 1st Round in 2010. That said, looking at some of the numbers over the past 7 weeks reveals a fairly enlightening picture. Left Defensive End Chris Long had 2 hits on the quarterback back during the 49ers-Rams first meeting on November 11th. During their next meeting, Williams Hayes (playing LDE) had 1.5 Sacks, 2 QB Hits, and 2 Tackles for Loss. Chicago’s Corey Wooten and Israel Idonije (both playing Left Defensive End) each had ½ sack and 1 QB Hit. And Miami’s Jared Odrick (again a LDE) had 1 Sack, 1 QB Hit, and 3 Tackles for Loss. Now he gets the pleasure of going up against Red Bryant (6’4” 323 pounds) and Bruce Irvin (6’3” 248 pounds) in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. Those guys have to be slobbering more than Pavlov’s dogs.
LT Joe Staley vs. RDE Chris Clemons …
Staley (6’5” 315 pounds), the former Central Michigan Chippewa standout, made the Pro Bowl last season. Despite being among the league’s best lineman however, here again there are reasons for Seahawk optimism on Sunday. RDE Jason Pierre Paul drummed Staley to the tune of 2 Sacks, 3 hits on the quarterback, and 3 Tackles for Loss back on October 14th. The Rams’ Robert Quinn had 1.5 sacks and 2 quarterback hits during their first meeting on November 11th. Three weeks after that, Miami’s Cameron Wake absolutely punished Staley, racking up 3 Sacks, 3 QB Hits, and 2 Tackles for Loss against him. Coming off a performance in which he rang up 2.5 Sacks on the road, Chris Clemons (6’3” 254 pounds) has to be looking forward to getting things pumped up in front of a fired up 12th Man.
Football Outsiders concurs with the assessment that pass protection has become a big issue for the 49ers. Believe it or not, according to their latest rankings, they have San Francisco’s Offensive Line #32 overall (Dead Last) in terms of their pass protection.
With WR Mario Manningham having missed the past couple of games with a shoulder injury (and still listed as Questionable for this one), stingy pass coverage from Seattle’s secondary combined with a relentless pass rush could help carry the day. But our 2nd Key to Sunday’s Game is actually the vein on which the Seahawks will either strike it rich or go broke on …
Key #2: Stem the Gold Rush …
The last time the Seahawks and 49ers met, Seattle boasted the 3rd Best Rush Defense in the NFL, having given up an average of only 70 yards per game. And then the Niners struck gold, blasting that vein wide open to the tune of 175 yards, as Frank Gore gored the Seahawks for 131 yards on only 16 carries. Lucy … how exactly do you ‘splain all that? Well, Pete Carroll when asked about it said that most of the yardage that San Francisco racked up against the defense was result of a handful of big plays. Let’s take a look back at some of the big runs in that game …
The 49ers had a total of 32 rushing attempts in that game. Adding up all the yardage from just those 11 plays … comes out to 140 yards. An amazing 140 of San Francisco’s 175 total rushing yards came on those 11 plays alone. And we can break it down even further than that. Looking at those runs listed above … 115 of the 49ers 175 yards in the game (65.7% of their total rushing yardage) came on just 7 runs. On the rest of San Francisco’s 25 runs … they averaged just 2.4 yards/rush. So, Pete Carroll was absolutely right.
And looking at the distribution of runs from that game is also fairly informative. While San Francisco had its biggest play off the left side (Red Bryant’s side) for 37 yards, that’s only 1 play – it happens in the NFL. However, looking at the numbers I just laid out above the 49ers had 5 of their biggest runs of that night come from straight up the middle. That brings me right to our key defensive matchups of the game …
LG Mike Iupati vs. RDT Brandon Mebane …
A large part of the 49ers success since 2010 can be attributed to their drafting of both Anthony Davis and guard Mike Iupati out of Idaho in the 1st Round that year. As a very physical blocker and road grater, Mike Iupati (6’5” 330 pounds) has very quickly become one of the best guards in the NFL. He has helped make the 49ers Offensive Line a real impregnable fortress along the lines of the Great Wall of China. But in this past game, some cracks in the wall might have started to appear. Iupati left the Patriots game in the 1st Half and was taken to the locker room with an apparent right shoulder injury. We’ll see if that’s anything moving forward. Brandon Mebane (6’1” 311 pounds) and Red Bryant are considered lynchpins for the Seahawks up front – both in terms of stopping the run and opening up those gaps for other pass rushers to attack the passer. Though he hasn’t put up big numbers of late, Mebane is one of the best defensive tackles and if Iupati is less than 100% … he could take advantage in this game.
RG Alex Boone vs. LDT Alan Branch …
Alex Boone (6’8” 300 pounds), former Tackle out of Ohio State, has done a good job of transitioning to guard this season. He is a huge, stout blocker who has really impressed coaches and fellow players with how well he has done this year … and some of the credit for the success of San Francisco’s Running Offense belongs to him, as he has become a good pulling guard. DT Alan Branch (6’6” 325 pounds) has been a real integral part of the Seahawks run defense this season. Branch left the game on Sunday with an ankle injury, so because Jason Jones is now out for the year, DT Clinton McDonald (6’2” 297 pounds), Jaye Howard (the 6’3” 301 pound DT taken in the 4th round out of the U. of Florida), and/or Greg Scruggs (6’3” 284 pound DE 7th round draft choice out of Louisville), would have to be able to step in and step up if for some reason he couldn’t go. Branch was a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday though, so looks like he’s good to go.
As we’ve talked about on many occasions, the 49ers were able to really pop Frank Gore free by taking advantage of Seattle’s aggressiveness. They caught the Seahawks in blitz situations and called trap plays to counter. Gore and Hunter simply zipped right past defenders who were blitzing through the wide open gaps and the spacious pasture beyond. Outside of Seattle’s Front Four, the true onus for stopping the run really lands squarely upon the shoulders of the Seahawks Defensive Rookie of the Year – MLB Bobby Wagner and the rest of the linebacking crew. While I do believe that the Seahawks will and should pressure Kaepernick in this game, I believe that the coaching staff will be stressing gap discipline and not allowing Gore room to run.
Outside of the Vikings game (in which Adrian Peterson went nuts for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns), the Seahawks have given up an average of only 69.4 Rushing Yards/Game and 1 touchdown.
The Hawks allowed C.J. Spiller to get 103 yards on 16 carries (6.1 yards/carry average) and a touchdown in the Bills game this past weekend. But Gore isn’t nearly as fast as Spiller though, so there may be some hope that the Seahawks can hope to contain him.
RB Kendall Hunter was lost for the season with a torn achilles he suffered in the Saints game on November 25th, so LaMichael James (the former Oregon Duck) has taken over the bulk of the carries as the change of pace back. However, he’s yet to really set the world on fire, as he’s averaged only 3.8 yards/carry thus far. BUT, with the change of quarterbacks there is another factor that the Seahawks need to concern themselves with …
[tdo=4]Colin Kaepernick Rushing Statistics …[/tdo]
Like Russell Wilson, Kaepernick is a guy who can do some damage on the run. That’s an element to San Francisco’s offense that Alex Smith really didn’t give them. So the 49er Offense in many ways resembles the Hawks at this point, as Kaepernick (like Wilson) runs the Zone Read Option at times and can take off and gain some yards if you’re not paying attention to him. BUT, herein lies a potential weakness, as his 7 fumbles have all come running the football. As Kaepernick has chosen to scramble around more, the sack totals have naturally gone up. With a Seahawks defense that comes in to this game tied for 6th in the NFL in Forced Fumbles (18) … and with a coach in Pete Carroll that preaches causing turnovers, that could loom large in this game.
Let’s turn our attention now to the other side of the ball. In terms of the Seahawks Offense, there can be little doubt regarding the Seahawks biggest key to this game …
Key #3: Place the Ship’s Fate … in the Hands of the Captain …
The San Francisco 49ers are an extremely dangerous defense. Just how dangerous are they? Take a look at some of these numbers if you dare …
[tdo=4]Seahawks Passing Offense vs. 49ers Pass Defense …[/tdo]
As their 10-3-1 record and numbers indicate, the 49ers have a deadly defense. But Seattle has been equally as lethal of late. This past Sunday, the Seahawks Offense scored 50 Points for the 2nd Game in a row. The last time a team scored 50 points in back to back games … was 1950.
In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, from 1960 through 2011 (prior Russell Wilson) there had been only two rookie QBs who had started a game in which their team scored at least 50 points …
Chris Chandler in 1988 with the Broncos
Tony Banks in 1996 with the Falcons
The fact that Wilson did it in back to back games … is simply remarkable.
Brian Nemhauser (at Hawkblogger.com) shared several other staggering statistics this week that underline just how dominant of a quarterback Russell Wilson has been of late …
Let’s look at Wilson’s production another way. For most of this season, sportscasters and writers have talked it being a 2 horse race between the Colts Andrew Luck and the Redskins Robert Griffin III for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Coupled with Ryan Tannehill in Miami, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, and Russell Wilson, an unprecedented 5 rookie quarterbacks are starting for their respective teams. Here are the top 10 performances by rookie quarterbacks this season based upon Quarterback Rating …
[tdo=9]2012 Top 10 Performances by Rookie Quarterbacks (sorted by QB Rating)[/tdo]
As you can see, 5 out of the top 10 performances this season have been by Russell Wilson – more than RGIII, Andrew Luck, or any other rookie quarterback. Those numbers are testament to the fact that the Seahawks Offense is a far cry from the one that San Francisco faced back in Week 7. How different is it? Danny O’Neil of the Seattle Times did a nice breakdown this week showing the level of offensive production THEN … versus NOW …
[tdo=5]Russell Wilson and 2012 Seahawks Offense[/tdo]Source:
“Offensive overhaul: Seahawks turn things around” – Seattle Times 12/19/12
To put those numbers in perspective – if the Seahawks Offense was putting up the kind of numbers all season long that they are putting up right now … they would be ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring and total yards behind only the New England Patriots … and be far and away the #1 rushing offense in the league.
In the early part of this season, Pete Carroll admitted that he was holding back the reins on the offense – in essence not wanting to overwhelm a rookie in Russell Wilson with the burden of shouldering the responsibility for winning games. Especially since the Chicago game, no such restrictions now exist, as Carroll, Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell, and company have thrown wide open the doors on the O. Part of what has made Russell Wilson so successful has been the Zone Read Option – a run/pass offense specifically designed for a mobile quarterback that puts the onus on the quarterback for making split second decisions at the line of scrimmage. Marshawn Lynch, talking to 710 ESPN’s Jim Moore, admitted to him that when they’re running the Read Option he personally has no idea whether or not the particular play will be a pass … or a run until he’s actually handed the ball by Wilson. It’s completely spontaneous and totally dependent upon the quarterback’s split second judgment.
The University of Oregon under Head Coach Chip Kelly (who’s considered an offensive guru) runs the Zone Read Option. In his 4 seasons as head coach, they have won 10 games every year and have consistently been among the top offenses in the nation.
The Washington Redskins and Robert Griffin III run the Zone Read Option as well – just check out some of the numbers I listed above that he’s piled up.
And for Seattle (looking at the numbers shown above), it’s obviously worked extremely well too.
With Wilson having shown recently that he not only can pass … but also RUN for scores (the Bills game was the 1st time in NFL History that a QB had run for 3 TD’s and passed for a TD), it’s an offense that looks to be fairly unstoppable at this point.
Mike Bellotti (former Oregon Offensive Coordinator, Head Coach, and Athletic Director) gave a very enlightening interview on the Zone Read Option on 710 ESPN’s Brock and Salk’s Show on Tuesday. Here is what Bellotti had to say regarding on the Zone Read Option that Russell Wilson is running and on some possible ways that teams (like the 49ers this week) may look to defend it …
Brock and Salk 710 ESPN Interview (12/18/12) w/Mike Bellotti
Former Seahawks QB (and now ESPN Analyst) Trent Dilfer was on with Brock and Salk on Friday and completely concurred with Bellotti’s assessment …
Jim Harbaugh is one of the very best in the business in terms of coming up with an effective game plan to counter a team’s strengths and attack their weaknesses. Couple that with the fact that the 49ers practice against the Zone Read Option all the time with Colin Kaepernick, and you’d think that they will try to come up with an effective counter for it. Personally, I’d look for LB Aldon Smith or FS Dashon Goldson to be that guy, as those 2 have a lot of speed and quickness.
But even if the 49ers DO commit 8 or even 9 defenders to the box and bring the heat … I like that idea because (though it may work early) … sooner or later a team’s going to get burned because that means a receiver is open and it undoubtedly means a big gain if the quarterback can find them. That kind of approach used to work against Matt Hasselbeck when he was younger … but as he gained experience that was a sure fire big gain for the Seahawks, as he made a living of recognizing that immediately and either hitting the quick crossing patterns OR handing the ball off on a trap play (which was often for a big gain) right up the middle (like the kind the 49ers burned the Seahawks with via Gore up the middle) if the defense was bringing the heat.
So, it will be very interesting indeed to see how Jim Harbaugh chooses to defend Russell Wilson. One thing I think most Seattle fans can agree with – the fate of the Seahawks this Sunday will undoubtedly be squarely upon the shoulders of #3. On Sunday, it’s going to be up to him and the offense to make a statement …
Key #4: Dominate the Dominion …
The Seahawks want to do far more than simply win this Sunday … they want to send a message to the rest of the NFL – to dominate a team that dominated them in so many ways just 6 weeks ago and prove that THEY are ready to challenge for supremacy in the NFC West. Seattle’s naturally going to want to demonstrate their superiority not only through the air … but also on the ground as well. The 49ers, as we’ve talked about many times in the past, are the Dominion of NFL Defenses though. Here’s how the Seahawks rush offense matches up against the 49ers run defense …
[tdo=4]Seahawks Rushing Offense vs. 49ers Rush Defense …[/tdo]
As you can see, though the Seahawks have been able to ram the ball down the throats of a lot of teams this year, they may have a tougher time of doing that this Sunday. The 49ers have been incredibly stingy when it comes to giving up real estate on the ground this year. Though they have not done as great of a job of penetrating in to opposing teams’ backfields and stuffing runners behind the line of scrimmage as often as other defenses … the Niners defenders just don’t budge much. What can we reasonably expect from the Seahawks and Marshawn Lynch against THIS 49ers defense this Sunday? Here is a look at how the Seahawks have done running the ball since these 2 teams last met …
[tdo=10]2012 Seahawks Rushing Performances (Weeks 8-14)[/tdo]
As Danny O’Neil pointed out, Seattle has averaged 189.7 Rushing Yards per game over the past 7 games. If Seattle had kept up that pace over the entire season … that means they would be gaining an average of 24.9 yards more per game than the Washington Redskins (who lead the league in rushing). But before we start buying our tickets to New Orleans, I can’t help but draw your attention to some of the caliber of defenses that the Seahawks have racked up those yards against. The Dolphins, the Vikings, and the Bears are the toughest run defenses they faced over that time frame. Though Marshawn Lynch had a good day against the Vikings, he frankly didn’t do so hot against either the Dolphins or the Bears – and this Sunday he’s going up against a defense MUCH stronger than either of those. That said, the Seahawks DID have 136 yards rushing against the 49ers during their first meeting in Candlestick, as Lynch had 103 yards on 19 carries (that’s a 5.4 yards/carry average). And though the Hawks lost that game 19-17, Lynch did have 107 yards (he averaged 5.1 yards/carry) and a touchdown last year against San Francisco in Seattle. So, it’ll be very interesting to see what happens on that front for sure.
Let’s take a more in depth look at some of the key match-ups of the day …
RDE Justin Smith and LB Aldon Smith vs. LT Russell Okung and LG Paul McQuistan…
Outside of Russell Wilson himself, the marquee match-up of the day will be how well Seattle’s left side of the offensive line plays against the 49ers studs on that side. Left Tackle Russell Okung (6’5” 310 pounds) is very quietly having himself a Pro Bowl Season. Okung has allowed only 1 Sack all season long and is as good of a left tackle as you’ll find in the game. LG Paul McQuistan (6’6” 315 pounds), has been equally as solid in pass protection himself this year. According to
Pro Football Weekly, McQuistan has allowed only .5 Sacks and had only 2 holding penalties on the season. Though the left side of Seattle’s offensive line has played well, they’re not facing pee-wee league defenders on Sunday.
Aldon Smith (6’4” 258 pounds) is about as far from your average linebacker as Frankenstein’s monster is from Fabio. Smith has most certainly been alive and on the rampage, as he is not just having a Pro Bowl Season, he is having one for the ages. No one in the NFL has struck more paydirt than the Texans J.J. Watt … and San Francisco’s Aldon Smith. With 19.5 Sacks on the season, Smith (and Watt who also has 19.5 sacks) comes in to this game needing just 3 more to tie the all time mark for sacks in a single season that Michael Strahan set in 2002 (22.5). Needless to say, it would be a good idea to know where #99 is on the field at all times. As a side note, he was limited in practice on Thursday with a shoulder issue.
Aldon Smith is able to do what he does because of what the OTHER Smith does right in front of him – RDE Justin Smith (6’4” 285 pounds). Herein lies one of the biggest keys in this game – break out your highlighters here folks. Justin Smith suffered an elbow injury in the Patriots game somewhere towards the end of the 3rd Quarter and did not return for the 4th Quarter. Justin Smith’s exit from the Patriots game pretty much coincided with New England’s monster comeback, as Brady and company were able to rack up 24 points in the 4th Quarter. The 49ers went from being up 31-3 … to suddenly being tied at 31-31 after he left. Those people who are closest to the 49ers and have really followed them say losing Justin Smith would be a major blow. Though Jim Harbaugh said on Tuesday that Smith will be ready to “rope cattle” on Sunday … he has since backed off that strong stance. Neither Mike Sando nor John Clayton are convinced that Smith will play … and it’s now being reported that Smith is doubtful for this game. If he’s as hurt as it sounds like he is, I’m skeptical that he’ll play as well. After all, we’re not talking about a guy who’s 23 here – Justin Smith is 33 years old and has racked up a lot of mileage on his body during in his 12 years in the league. No matter how good you are, sooner or later the incessant pounding of having played 185 consecutive games catches up to you. Justin Smith did not practice Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
If for some reason Justin Smith can’t go on Sunday, it will be extremely interesting to see what the 49ers choose to do there. After he left the game this past Sunday, second year DT Will Tukuafu (6’4” 293 pounds) out of Oregon came in and played the remainder of the game. He is listed as Justin Smith’s back-up … but Tukuafu was also listed as being limited in practice on Thursday with a concussion. Beyond that, the air starts to get fairly thin for the Niners, as there is simply no one on this defense who can do what Justin Smith does. DT Ricky Jean Francois (6’3” 295 pounds) has been practicing all week in his place, so all signs point to him starting on Sunday. If I’m Darrell Bevell … I know exactly what side of the line I’m attacking.
LDE Ray McDonald vs. RT Breno Giacomini …
Though this match-up won’t draw as much attention as some of the others, in many ways it’s no less important. Ray McDonald (6’3” 290 pounds) is coming off a very solid performance against the Patriots in which he had 2 Sacks, 2 hits on Tom Brady, and 2 Tackles for Loss. Seahawks RT Breno Giacomini (6’7” 318 pounds) did a good job against him the last time around (as McDonald registered only 2 tackles) and he’s going to have to continue to bring that same nasty attitude and intensity this weekend.
Seahawks Receiving Corps vs. 49ers Secondary …
Russell Wilson isn’t the only one who needs to step up in this game. Seahawks receivers are going to have to show up on Sunday, because they most certainly didn’t last time. Seattle’s wide receivers had 5 dropped passes in the first San Francisco game. Golden Tate dropped 2 passes … Braylon Edwards dropped one … Evan Moore dropped one… and Robert Turbin dropped one that looked like it would have been a sure touchdown. Sidney Rice had just 1 ball thrown his way in the entire first half and finished with only 2 catches in that game. If not for all those drops, Russell Wilson would have finished 14 for 23 (a 60.8% Comp. Rate) – the same basic completion rate he has had all season long. Instead, Wilson appeared to try to force the issue, throwing a ball in to triple coverage as he was about to get sacked. Instead of a big completion to Edwards … the ball was picked off by Dashon Goldson.
Free Safety Dashon Goldson (6’2” 200 pounds) comes in to this game with 64 tackles, 10 Passes Defensed, and 3 interceptions on the season. He had a key fumble recovery in the Patriots game last week and is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Strong Safety Donte Whitner (5’10” 208 pounds) is 3rd on the team with 73 tackles on the season and is certainly a player who brings a lot of thump. LCB Carlos Rogers (6’0” 192 pounds) is another guy who can be disruptive, as he helped keep Sidney Rice and Golden Tate under wraps for most of the day last time. Rogers had a key interception of Tom Brady that he returned for 63 yards in the Patriots game, so this guy can make plays. RCB Tarrell Brown (5’10” 193 pounds) has 11 Passes Defensed … and Nickel Back Chris Culliver (6’0” 199 pounds) 13 Passes Defensed on the year, so these are all defensive backs who can really run, tackle, and bat down passes.
Golden Tate, Zach Miller, and Doug Baldwin were all players who really pulled a disappearing act for the most the first time around. Sidney Rice has been a bit banged up with a knee issue that has limited him in practice this week, but should be ready to go on Sunday. For sure though, he’s going to need some help. Against this defensive backfield, the Seahawks receiving corps as a whole is simply going to have to have a much better showing than they had last time.
Other gold nuggets who could be shiny on Sunday …
LB NaVorro Bowman (6’0” 242 pounds) leads the 49ers with 128 Tackles on the season. Lynch and Wilson will be undoubtedly be greeted by Bowman often on Sunday.
LB Patrick Willis (6’1” 240 pounds) is #2 on the team with 110 Tackles this season. Willis is also an extremely capable pass defender, as he has 8 Passes Defensed and an interception to boot.
LB Ahmad Brooks (6’3” 259 pounds) is another who shouldn’t get lost in the shuffle either. He has 5.5 sacks … 5 Tackles for Loss (2nd on the team) … and 6 Passes Defensed this year. Though he’s not as talked about as the others, this is a very quality defender as well.
San Francisco’s Defense (and their Front 7 for sure) is the best in football. They are a very physical group that is phenomenal at stopping opposing offenses. Interestingly enough though, the numbers suggest that Seattle may find success if they can actually get down in to scoring territory …
That hasn’t happened very often obviously, as we’re talking about a 49ers team that is tied with the Seahawks for the fewest points allowed in the league (15.6 Pts/Game Avg.). This game is about so much more than the X’s and O’s though …
Key #5: Have the Superior Intellect …
This 49ers-Seahawks game isn’t just about the guys in the uniforms … it’s also very much about the two head minds on the sidelines as well. The Pete Carroll-Jim Harbaugh feud is one of the great rivalries in all of sports and goes back a few years now …
Jim Harbaugh was hired by Stanford to be their head coach in December of 2006. At that time, Pete Carroll was the big dog of the PAC-10, as USC had won 11 games for 5 straight seasons and the National Title in both 2003 and 2004. From the moment he was hired, it was like Harbaugh painted a giant bulls-eye on Carroll and made it his life’s mission to take the big dog down.
In March of 2007 (Prior to his first season as head coach), Harbaugh garnered attention by telling the media, "Pete Carroll's only got one more year, though. He'll be there one more year. That's what I've heard. I heard it inside the staff." When asked further about it, he claimed that he’d heard it from members of the USC coaching staff. Carroll was not very happy about that and when contacted by the L.A. Times told them, "If he's going to make statements like that, he ought to get his information right. And if he has any questions about it he should call me."
In 2007, Harbaugh’s Stanford Cardinal shocked Carroll’s USC Trojans in their very first meeting, as they lost at home to Stanford 24-23. USC entered that game favored by 41 points and had a 35 game home winning streak prior to that game. In contrast, Stanford had a PAC-10 worst 1-11 season the year prior to Harbaugh’s arrival.
The next year in 2008, Carroll responded by handing Stanford a 45-23 thumping at their place. It was a loss that Harbaugh wouldn’t soon forget.
On November 14, 2009, Harbaugh’s Stanford Cardinal again found themselves 11 point underdogs to USC. They traveled to Los Angeles Memorial Stadium … and handed USC their worst loss ever 55-21. With 7 minutes left to go in that game, Stanford got a touchdown to make the score 48-21. Instead of kicking the extra point … Harbaugh apparently tried to send a message by going for the 2 point conversion (a decision that drew raucous boos from the crowd). After that game, Carroll seeking an explanation, asked Harbaugh, “What’s your deal?” Harbaugh responded by throwing the same question back in his face.
Harbaugh, Kansas State’s Bill Snyder, and Oregon’s Chip Kelly are the only ones who have winning records against Carroll. On January 11, 2011 – 4 days after winning the Orange Bowl (and 1 year and 3 days after Carroll was hired by the Seahawks), Harbaugh was brought on board by the 49ers to be their head coach.
In so many ways, these two guys are mirror images of one another …
Both of these guys are ultra-competitive and will do whatever it takes to win.
Both of these guys have great football minds and are fantastic in their ability to draw up game plans to effectively attack their opponent’s weaknesses.
Both of these guys place an emphasis on hard-nosed, rock-‘em-sock-‘em defense … and on wanting to run the football (subsequently both of them have teams that do exactly that).
Both of these guys have quarterbacks who are strong armed, are mobile, run the Zone Read Option, and have defenses that practice against it all the time.
Since being hired by the 49ers prior to the 2011 Season, Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 vs. Pete Carroll. Carroll has been accused the past couple of games of running up the score. Well believe me, Pete Carroll doesn’t just want to win this game … he wants to grind Harbaugh and the 49ers in to the dirt. Sunday’s game is very personal for both of these head coaches and the outcome will go a long ways towards determining just who the superior intellect really is.
Bold Prediction …
Back-up guard J.R. Sweezy encapsulated Seahawks players’ mentality coming in to this game this week, saying, “This is the Super Bowl for us.” Emotions are going to be running high in this game, as both teams want this win badly. Over the last 3 games Seattle has played at Century Link Field, opposing teams have turned the ball over an amazing 13 times. Though Colin Kaepernick has been preparing for this game all week, he has never played at Century Link Field before. Former Seahawks and Huskies QB Brock Huard noted this week that Kaepernick is still working on his technique of taking the ball from under center, as 99.9% of his snaps that he took in college at Nevada were from the shotgun. Given that the noise at Century Link can rival that of a jet engine, I’d say that it’s possible that could be an issue. Additionally, San Francisco kick and punt returner Ted Ginn, Jr. has had his share of problems holding on to the ball this year, as he has 4 fumbles on season. So, I believe it’s highly likely that the 49ers will have some miscues in this game.
According to the Mayan Calendar, December of 2012 is going to be the end of the world. Well, you know the Apocalypse is truly upon us when ESPN national radio talk show host Colin Cowherd (a well known Seahawks basher) boldly states that the Seahawks are the 2nd Best team in the NFL and predicts that they will end up in the Super Bowl this year.
Though Harbaugh has the edge at this point over Carroll, Seattle’s home field advantage in this game can’t be overlooked. Including playoffs, the Seahawks are 61 and 31 at home since 2002 (a .663 Winning%). That’s the 2nd Best Home Record in the league over that time behind only Green Bay (who is 64-30 and have had a .681 Winning% over that same time frame).
Though the experts are officially calling this one a “pick ‘em” game … I’m going out on a limb and saying that the Seahawks live long and prosper in a close, hard fought contest.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 20
49ers 14
“Kapla!” (Klingon translation: Success!)
5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks vs. the 49ers …
Can anyone contain the mojo surrounding this Seattle Seahawks team? If you could bottle it, you could sell it on the Black Market as one whale of an illicit drug. For the 2nd game in a row, the Seahawks scored 50 points on an opponent – the first time that an NFL team has done that since 1950. In a word, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks look unstoppable. The task this Sunday at Century Link Field is straightforward – win and the Seahawks are in the playoffs. But it is far from simple. Standing in the way of making their playoff dreams a reality … is their long time Nemesis, the San Francisco 49ers. When last the Seahawks and 49ers met back on October 18th (Week 7) at Candlestick Park … a then fledgling offense under a wet behind the ears Russell Wilson lost 13-6 in a hard fought slugfest. Oh how both teams have changed since then. Can the Seahawks knock off the mighty 49ers and march boldly in to the playoffs? Here are 5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks this Sunday …
Key #1: Contain the Young Commander …
There is a new captain at the helm of the ship of San Francisco’s Offense since the last time Seattle and the 49ers met. In an almost unprecedented move for a championship caliber team, head coach Jim Harbaugh changed signal callers in the middle of a season, benching Alex Smith in favor of former Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Colin Kaepernick. And the 2nd year quarterback has responded to the challenge. Here are his numbers since he assumed the captain’s chair 6 weeks ago …
| Week (Date) | Opponent | Result | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Comp% | Yards | TDS | INTS | QB Rating | Total QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 (11/11) | vs. Rams | 24-24 (TIE) | 11 | 17 | 64.7% | 117 | 0 | 0 | 87.4 | 40.7 |
| 11 (11/19) | vs. Bears | 32-7 (WIN) | 16 | 23 | 69.6% | 243 | 2 | 0 | 133.1 | 97.5 |
| 12 (11/25) | at Saints | 31-21(WIN) | 16 | 25 | 64.0% | 231 | 1 | 1 | 90.6 | 72.3 |
| 13 (12/2) | at Rams | 13-16 (LOSS) | 21 | 32 | 65.6% | 208 | 0 | 0 | 83.9 | 82.4 |
| 14 (12/9) | vs. Dolphins | 27-13 (WIN) | 18 | 23 | 78.3% | 185 | 0 | 0 | 100.2 | 64.1 |
| 15 (12/16) | at Patriots | 41-34 (WIN) | 14 | 25 | 56.0% | 216 | 4 | 1 | 107.7 | 87.1 |
| Total | NA | 4-1-1 Record | 101 | 154 | 65.6% | 1,289 | 7 | 2 | 101.3 | 79.5 (2nd in NFL) |
Kaepernick’s numbers are interesting, particularly if you compare them with those of former starter Alex Smith this year …
| QB | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Comp% | Yards | Yds/Att | TDS | INTS | QB Rating/NFL Rank | Total QBR/NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaepernick | 101 | 154 | 65.6% | 1,289 | 8.37 | 7 | 2 | 101.4 (5th) | 79.5 (2nd) |
| Smith | 152 | 217 | 70.0% | 1,731 | 7.98 | 13 | 5 | 104.1 (3rd) | 70.1 (7th) |
As you can see, Kaepernick’s numbers are very similar to those of Alex Smith. So why make a change at all? That's a question that a lot of 49ers fans are asking themselves, as Smith had a QB Rating of 96.1 in the 4th Quarter last year. Only Aaron Rodgers had less turnovers from the QB Position in 2011, so many Niners fans are left scratching their heads. BUT, prior to last year's 13-3 breakout season ... Smith had strung together several mediocre seasons and only once in the 5 years prior had guided the team to a winning season. That and the fact that Alex Smith was only 12 for 26 (46.2% Comp Rate) and 1 for 13 on 3rd Down in the NFC Championship Game last season may have spelled his doom. Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers appear to be saying to themselves, "We know what we have in Alex Smith (a game manager only) and believe that Kaepernick has a higher ceiling." Kaepernick does have a better arm than Smith and adds a new dimension to the 49er Offense with his mobility. Regardless of the reasons though, Kaepernick will be the man the Seahawks face this weekend. Before we continue our discussion of Kaepernick, let's take a look at the main targets for the 49ers this season ...
| Receiver | Size | Catches | Yards | Yards/Catch | TD’s | #Catches of 20 Yds+ | % of Passing Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Michael Crabtree | 61” 214 Lbs | 73 | 868 | 11.9 | 7 | 11 | 28.85% |
| WR Mario Manningham | 6’0” 185 Lbs | 41 | 449 | 11.0 | 1 | 6 | 16.21% |
| TE Vernon Davis | 6’3” 250 Lbs | 39 | 516 | 13.2 | 5 | 11 | 15.42% |
| RB Frank Gore | 5’9” 217 Lbs | 25 | 213 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 9.88% |
| WR Randy Moss | 6'4” 210 Lbs | 23 | 362 | 15.7 | 3 | 5 | 9.09% |
| TE Delanie Walker | 6'0" 214 Lbs | 15 | 235 | 15.7 | 2 | 6 | 5.93% |
| WR Kyle Williams | 5'10" 186 Lbs | 14 | 212 | 15.1 | 1 | 2 | 5.53% |
| FB Bruce Miller | 6'2" 248 Lbs | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 0 | 1 | 3.56% |
Those are the numbers on the season. But again, we had a change of quarterbacks 6 weeks ago. Here are the distribution of passes since Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting QB ...
| Receiver | Catches | Yards | TD's | % of Passing Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Michael Crabtree | 34 | 428 | 4 | 33.0% |
| TE Vernon Davis | 14 | 142 | 1 | 13.59% |
| WR Mario Manningham | 13 | 171 | 0 | 12.62% |
| WR Randy Moss | 10 | 127 | 1 | 9.70% |
| RB Frank Gore | 9 | 92 | 1 | 8.73% |
| TE Delanie Walker | 8 | 146 | 1 | 7.76% |
| FB Bruce Miller | 7 | 55 | 0 | 6.79% |
| WR Kyle Williams | 4 | 84 | 0 | 3.88% |
| RB LaMichael James | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0.97% |
| WR Ted Ginn, Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.97% |
The offensive numbers since Kaepernick took over are very revealing. Crabtree has been a whopping 1/3 of the 49ers passing offense – even more of a go to option than when Alex Smith was this team’s starting QB.
You would think that with such a disparity, that stopping Crabtree in essence means stopping the 49ers passing attack. But Seattle’s secondary (which looks stout on paper) has yielded sizeable amounts of real estate to receivers in recent weeks.
Though the Seahawks come in to this contest having allowed an average of only 197.6 Passing Yards/Game (3rd Best in the league), over the last 7 games, the Seahawks secondary has allowed …
Detroit’s Titus Young to get … 9 Catches … for 100 Yards receiving (11.1 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 46 yard catch and 2 TD.
Miami’s Davon Bess to catch … 7 Passes … for 129 Yards (a 18.4 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 39 yard catch.
Chicago’s Brandon Marshall to have … 10 Catches … for 165 Yards (a 16.5 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 56 yard catch that nearly cost the Seahawks the win.
Buffalo’s Steve Johnson to snag… 8 Passes … for 115 Yards (a 14.4 Yds/Reception Avg.) including a 25 yard catch and 1 TD.
In the case of Detroit and Miami, teams had simply decided that because Seattle’s Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner were so good … that they would attack the Seahawks 3rd CB (who was Marcus Trufant) and hit the slot receivers instead. Before he was injured, Trufant was getting burned 72.4% of the time according to Stats Inc. (the 2nd worst Burned Percentage among all 3rd CB’s in football). The numbers bore that out, as Ryan Tannehill was 8 for 8 on passes to slot receivers in that game.
With Chicago’s Brandon Marshall … and this last game with Steve Johnson – that didn’t appear to be the case at all. Those are those teams’ #1 receivers – players who should be primarily drawing coverage from Browner and Sherman. Lost in the shuffle of Seattle’s 50 point victory is the fact that the secondary allowed 4 passes of 20 yards or more against (what was statistically) one of the worst passing offenses in the entire league. That’s a trend that CANNOT continue.
At Candlestick Park back on October 18th, Frank Gore led the 49ers in catches (with 5) against a fully operational Seahawks secondary. Just how operational Seattle’s secondary is going to be remains a question very much up in the air. Safety Jeron Johnson (who’s brought some real attitude to the defense) did not practice on Friday and is listed as Questionable for this game. Richard Sherman also had his PED suspension appeal hearing on Friday. With Sherman, the Hawks stand a much better chance of shutting down Michael Crabtree. Without him and with Walter Thurmond still Questionable for this game with a hamstring issue (Thurmond was a limited participant on Friday and will be a game time decision), I’m not as optimistic.
This past Sunday, the Patriots lost starting CB Alfonso Dennard to injury ... and it was his backup, Kyle Arrington, who gave up what proved to be the game winning 38 yard touchdown reception to Crabtree in the 4th Quarter. Kaepernick averaged 15.4 Yards per completion in that game and all 4 of his touchdown passes covered 24 yards or more.
Though it’s likely that he will be able to play on Sunday, Hawks fans should be hoping and praying that the league doesn’t do the unforeseen and suspend Richard Sherman prior to this game. That doesn’t look like it will happen until next week though, so as far as this game is concerned, the Hawks should be in decent shape.
That said, this is a 49ers team that CAN be beaten. The Rams shocked the Niners 16-13 in Overtime in part because they were able to bring a lot of pressure on Kaepernick, sacking him 3 times and forcing him in to making a critical mistake on a poor pitch (which became a fumble returned for a TD) to Ted Ginn, Jr. Kaepernick has been known to make mistakes, as he has 7 fumbles on the season. So, bringing pressure on him will certainly be crucial to the Seahawks success.
Though the Niners come in to this game as one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL (their 25.5 Points/Game Average is 8th Best) … there have been some definite chinks in the armor when it comes to their passing game that should be noted …
| 49ers Off. Category | NFL Rank | Seahawks Def. Category | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.5 Pts Scored/Game | 8th Most | 15.6 Pts Allowed/Game | tied for #1 w/49ers |
| 198.9 Pass Yds/Game | 26th | 197.6 Pass Yds/Game Allwd | 3rd Best |
| 43 Passes of 20 Yards+ | tied for 17th | 33 Passes of 20 Yards+ Allowed | tied for 4th Fewest |
| 36.1% 3rd Down Conv Rate | 21st | Allw 40.3% of 3rd Down Conv | 21st |
| 20 Passing TD’s | tied for 16th | 13 Passing TD’s Allwd | tied for Fewest |
| Score TD’s 52.17% in Red Zone (ON ROAD) | 16th | TD’s Allwd 33.33% in Red Zone (AT HOME) | 1st in NFL |
| 39 Sacks Allowed | 7th Most | 35 Sacks | tied for 11th |
| 101.3 Passer Rating for Colin Kaepernick | 5th Best | 71.5 QB Passer Rating Against | 3rd Best |
Notice that last statistic in particular. The fact that the 49ers have given up the 7th most sacks in the league should give the Hawks Defense and the 12th Man hope this Sunday. With that in mind, here are a couple of key matchups along the trenches …
RT Anthony Davis vs. LDE’s Red Bryant and Bruce Irvin…
Anthony Davis has been an extremely good run blocker and pass defender since he was chosen in the 1st Round in 2010. That said, looking at some of the numbers over the past 7 weeks reveals a fairly enlightening picture. Left Defensive End Chris Long had 2 hits on the quarterback back during the 49ers-Rams first meeting on November 11th. During their next meeting, Williams Hayes (playing LDE) had 1.5 Sacks, 2 QB Hits, and 2 Tackles for Loss. Chicago’s Corey Wooten and Israel Idonije (both playing Left Defensive End) each had ½ sack and 1 QB Hit. And Miami’s Jared Odrick (again a LDE) had 1 Sack, 1 QB Hit, and 3 Tackles for Loss. Now he gets the pleasure of going up against Red Bryant (6’4” 323 pounds) and Bruce Irvin (6’3” 248 pounds) in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. Those guys have to be slobbering more than Pavlov’s dogs.
LT Joe Staley vs. RDE Chris Clemons …
Staley (6’5” 315 pounds), the former Central Michigan Chippewa standout, made the Pro Bowl last season. Despite being among the league’s best lineman however, here again there are reasons for Seahawk optimism on Sunday. RDE Jason Pierre Paul drummed Staley to the tune of 2 Sacks, 3 hits on the quarterback, and 3 Tackles for Loss back on October 14th. The Rams’ Robert Quinn had 1.5 sacks and 2 quarterback hits during their first meeting on November 11th. Three weeks after that, Miami’s Cameron Wake absolutely punished Staley, racking up 3 Sacks, 3 QB Hits, and 2 Tackles for Loss against him. Coming off a performance in which he rang up 2.5 Sacks on the road, Chris Clemons (6’3” 254 pounds) has to be looking forward to getting things pumped up in front of a fired up 12th Man.
Football Outsiders concurs with the assessment that pass protection has become a big issue for the 49ers. Believe it or not, according to their latest rankings, they have San Francisco’s Offensive Line #32 overall (Dead Last) in terms of their pass protection.
With WR Mario Manningham having missed the past couple of games with a shoulder injury (and still listed as Questionable for this one), stingy pass coverage from Seattle’s secondary combined with a relentless pass rush could help carry the day. But our 2nd Key to Sunday’s Game is actually the vein on which the Seahawks will either strike it rich or go broke on …
Key #2: Stem the Gold Rush …
The last time the Seahawks and 49ers met, Seattle boasted the 3rd Best Rush Defense in the NFL, having given up an average of only 70 yards per game. And then the Niners struck gold, blasting that vein wide open to the tune of 175 yards, as Frank Gore gored the Seahawks for 131 yards on only 16 carries. Lucy … how exactly do you ‘splain all that? Well, Pete Carroll when asked about it said that most of the yardage that San Francisco racked up against the defense was result of a handful of big plays. Let’s take a look back at some of the big runs in that game …
The 49ers had a total of 32 rushing attempts in that game. Adding up all the yardage from just those 11 plays … comes out to 140 yards. An amazing 140 of San Francisco’s 175 total rushing yards came on those 11 plays alone. And we can break it down even further than that. Looking at those runs listed above … 115 of the 49ers 175 yards in the game (65.7% of their total rushing yardage) came on just 7 runs. On the rest of San Francisco’s 25 runs … they averaged just 2.4 yards/rush. So, Pete Carroll was absolutely right.
And looking at the distribution of runs from that game is also fairly informative. While San Francisco had its biggest play off the left side (Red Bryant’s side) for 37 yards, that’s only 1 play – it happens in the NFL. However, looking at the numbers I just laid out above the 49ers had 5 of their biggest runs of that night come from straight up the middle. That brings me right to our key defensive matchups of the game …
LG Mike Iupati vs. RDT Brandon Mebane …
A large part of the 49ers success since 2010 can be attributed to their drafting of both Anthony Davis and guard Mike Iupati out of Idaho in the 1st Round that year. As a very physical blocker and road grater, Mike Iupati (6’5” 330 pounds) has very quickly become one of the best guards in the NFL. He has helped make the 49ers Offensive Line a real impregnable fortress along the lines of the Great Wall of China. But in this past game, some cracks in the wall might have started to appear. Iupati left the Patriots game in the 1st Half and was taken to the locker room with an apparent right shoulder injury. We’ll see if that’s anything moving forward. Brandon Mebane (6’1” 311 pounds) and Red Bryant are considered lynchpins for the Seahawks up front – both in terms of stopping the run and opening up those gaps for other pass rushers to attack the passer. Though he hasn’t put up big numbers of late, Mebane is one of the best defensive tackles and if Iupati is less than 100% … he could take advantage in this game.
RG Alex Boone vs. LDT Alan Branch …
Alex Boone (6’8” 300 pounds), former Tackle out of Ohio State, has done a good job of transitioning to guard this season. He is a huge, stout blocker who has really impressed coaches and fellow players with how well he has done this year … and some of the credit for the success of San Francisco’s Running Offense belongs to him, as he has become a good pulling guard. DT Alan Branch (6’6” 325 pounds) has been a real integral part of the Seahawks run defense this season. Branch left the game on Sunday with an ankle injury, so because Jason Jones is now out for the year, DT Clinton McDonald (6’2” 297 pounds), Jaye Howard (the 6’3” 301 pound DT taken in the 4th round out of the U. of Florida), and/or Greg Scruggs (6’3” 284 pound DE 7th round draft choice out of Louisville), would have to be able to step in and step up if for some reason he couldn’t go. Branch was a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday though, so looks like he’s good to go.
As we’ve talked about on many occasions, the 49ers were able to really pop Frank Gore free by taking advantage of Seattle’s aggressiveness. They caught the Seahawks in blitz situations and called trap plays to counter. Gore and Hunter simply zipped right past defenders who were blitzing through the wide open gaps and the spacious pasture beyond. Outside of Seattle’s Front Four, the true onus for stopping the run really lands squarely upon the shoulders of the Seahawks Defensive Rookie of the Year – MLB Bobby Wagner and the rest of the linebacking crew. While I do believe that the Seahawks will and should pressure Kaepernick in this game, I believe that the coaching staff will be stressing gap discipline and not allowing Gore room to run.
Outside of the Vikings game (in which Adrian Peterson went nuts for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns), the Seahawks have given up an average of only 69.4 Rushing Yards/Game and 1 touchdown.
The Hawks allowed C.J. Spiller to get 103 yards on 16 carries (6.1 yards/carry average) and a touchdown in the Bills game this past weekend. But Gore isn’t nearly as fast as Spiller though, so there may be some hope that the Seahawks can hope to contain him.
RB Kendall Hunter was lost for the season with a torn achilles he suffered in the Saints game on November 25th, so LaMichael James (the former Oregon Duck) has taken over the bulk of the carries as the change of pace back. However, he’s yet to really set the world on fire, as he’s averaged only 3.8 yards/carry thus far. BUT, with the change of quarterbacks there is another factor that the Seahawks need to concern themselves with …
| Rushing Attempts | Yards | Yards/Rushing Attempt | TD’s |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 379 | 7.2 | 5 |
Like Russell Wilson, Kaepernick is a guy who can do some damage on the run. That’s an element to San Francisco’s offense that Alex Smith really didn’t give them. So the 49er Offense in many ways resembles the Hawks at this point, as Kaepernick (like Wilson) runs the Zone Read Option at times and can take off and gain some yards if you’re not paying attention to him. BUT, herein lies a potential weakness, as his 7 fumbles have all come running the football. As Kaepernick has chosen to scramble around more, the sack totals have naturally gone up. With a Seahawks defense that comes in to this game tied for 6th in the NFL in Forced Fumbles (18) … and with a coach in Pete Carroll that preaches causing turnovers, that could loom large in this game.
Let’s turn our attention now to the other side of the ball. In terms of the Seahawks Offense, there can be little doubt regarding the Seahawks biggest key to this game …
Key #3: Place the Ship’s Fate … in the Hands of the Captain …
The San Francisco 49ers are an extremely dangerous defense. Just how dangerous are they? Take a look at some of these numbers if you dare …
| Seahawks Off. Category | NFL Rank | 49ers Def. Category | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.0 Points Scored/Game | 11th Most | 15.6 Points Allowed/Game | tied for #1 w/Seahawks |
| 189.4 Pass Yds/Game | 27th | 201.9 Pass Yds/Game Allwd | 5th Best |
| 39 Passes of 20 Yards+ | tied for 21st | 33 Passes of 20 Yards+ Allowed | tied for 4th Fewest |
| 36.8% 3rd Down Conv Rate | 19th | Allw 30.0% of 3rd Down Conv | 2nd Best |
| 26 Sacks Allowed | 22nd | 35 Sacks | tied for 11th |
| 22 Passing TD’s | tied for 10th | 14 Passing TD’s Allwd | 4th Fewest |
| 7.7 Yards/ Pass Attempt | 6th | 6.0 Yards/Pass Attempt Allwd | 2nd Best |
| 95.5 Passer Rating for Russell Wilson | 8th Best | 75.9 QB Passer Rating Against | 4th Best |
As their 10-3-1 record and numbers indicate, the 49ers have a deadly defense. But Seattle has been equally as lethal of late. This past Sunday, the Seahawks Offense scored 50 Points for the 2nd Game in a row. The last time a team scored 50 points in back to back games … was 1950.
In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, from 1960 through 2011 (prior Russell Wilson) there had been only two rookie QBs who had started a game in which their team scored at least 50 points …
Chris Chandler in 1988 with the Broncos
Tony Banks in 1996 with the Falcons
The fact that Wilson did it in back to back games … is simply remarkable.
Brian Nemhauser (at Hawkblogger.com) shared several other staggering statistics this week that underline just how dominant of a quarterback Russell Wilson has been of late …
Let’s look at Wilson’s production another way. For most of this season, sportscasters and writers have talked it being a 2 horse race between the Colts Andrew Luck and the Redskins Robert Griffin III for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Coupled with Ryan Tannehill in Miami, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, and Russell Wilson, an unprecedented 5 rookie quarterbacks are starting for their respective teams. Here are the top 10 performances by rookie quarterbacks this season based upon Quarterback Rating …
| Quarterback | Date/Opp | Comp | Att | Comp% | Yards | TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Robert Griffin III | 11/18 vs. Eagles | 14 | 15 | 93.3% | 200 | 4 | 0 | 158.3 |
| 2. Robert Griffin III | 9/9 vs. Saints | 19 | 26 | 73.1% | 320 | 2 | 0 | 139.9 |
| 3. Russell Wilson | 10/14 vs. Patriots | 16 | 27 | 59.3% | 320 | 2 | 0 | 139.9 |
| 4. Robert Griffin III | 11/22 vs. Cowboys | 19 | 27 | 70.4% | 304 | 4 | 1 | 131.8 |
| 5. Russell Wilson | 11/11 vs. Jets | 12 | 19 | 63.2% | 188 | 2 | 0 | 131.0 |
| 6. Russell Wilson | 11/4 vs. Vikings | 16 | 24 | 66.7% | 173 | 3 | 0 | 127.3 |
| 7. Russell Wilson | 11/25 vs. Dolphins | 21 | 27 | 77.8% | 224 | 2 | 0 | 125.9 |
| 8. Ryan Tannehill | 12/16 vs. Jaguars | 22 | 28 | 78.6% | 220 | 2 | 0 | 123.2 |
| 9. Brandon Weeden | 9/16 vs. Bengals | 26 | 37 | 70.3% | 322 | 2 | 0 | 114.9 |
| 10. Russell Wilson | 9/16 vs. Cowboys | 15 | 20 | 75.0% | 151 | 1 | 0 | 112.7 |
As you can see, 5 out of the top 10 performances this season have been by Russell Wilson – more than RGIII, Andrew Luck, or any other rookie quarterback. Those numbers are testament to the fact that the Seahawks Offense is a far cry from the one that San Francisco faced back in Week 7. How different is it? Danny O’Neil of the Seattle Times did a nice breakdown this week showing the level of offensive production THEN … versus NOW …
| Russell Wilson | Pass Comp-Att (Pct.) | Avg. Pass Yards/Game | TD-INT | Rush Yards/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games 1-7 | 104 for 175 (59.4%) | 175.7 | 8-7 | 17 |
| Games 8-14 | 118 for 178 (66.3%) | 209.6 | 13-2 | 40.4 |
| Seahawks Offense | Avg. Points/Game | Total Yards/Game | Rush Yards/Game | Pass Yards/Game |
| Games 1-7 | 16.6 | 293.6 | 131.7 | 161.9 |
| Games 8-14 | 33.4 | 406.7 | 189.7 | 217.0 |
“Offensive overhaul: Seahawks turn things around” – Seattle Times 12/19/12
To put those numbers in perspective – if the Seahawks Offense was putting up the kind of numbers all season long that they are putting up right now … they would be ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring and total yards behind only the New England Patriots … and be far and away the #1 rushing offense in the league.
In the early part of this season, Pete Carroll admitted that he was holding back the reins on the offense – in essence not wanting to overwhelm a rookie in Russell Wilson with the burden of shouldering the responsibility for winning games. Especially since the Chicago game, no such restrictions now exist, as Carroll, Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell, and company have thrown wide open the doors on the O. Part of what has made Russell Wilson so successful has been the Zone Read Option – a run/pass offense specifically designed for a mobile quarterback that puts the onus on the quarterback for making split second decisions at the line of scrimmage. Marshawn Lynch, talking to 710 ESPN’s Jim Moore, admitted to him that when they’re running the Read Option he personally has no idea whether or not the particular play will be a pass … or a run until he’s actually handed the ball by Wilson. It’s completely spontaneous and totally dependent upon the quarterback’s split second judgment.
The University of Oregon under Head Coach Chip Kelly (who’s considered an offensive guru) runs the Zone Read Option. In his 4 seasons as head coach, they have won 10 games every year and have consistently been among the top offenses in the nation.
The Washington Redskins and Robert Griffin III run the Zone Read Option as well – just check out some of the numbers I listed above that he’s piled up.
And for Seattle (looking at the numbers shown above), it’s obviously worked extremely well too.
With Wilson having shown recently that he not only can pass … but also RUN for scores (the Bills game was the 1st time in NFL History that a QB had run for 3 TD’s and passed for a TD), it’s an offense that looks to be fairly unstoppable at this point.
Mike Bellotti (former Oregon Offensive Coordinator, Head Coach, and Athletic Director) gave a very enlightening interview on the Zone Read Option on 710 ESPN’s Brock and Salk’s Show on Tuesday. Here is what Bellotti had to say regarding on the Zone Read Option that Russell Wilson is running and on some possible ways that teams (like the 49ers this week) may look to defend it …
Source:
Brock and Salk 710 ESPN Interview (12/18/12) w/Mike Bellotti
Former Seahawks QB (and now ESPN Analyst) Trent Dilfer was on with Brock and Salk on Friday and completely concurred with Bellotti’s assessment …
Brock and Salk 710 ESPN Interview (12/21/12) w/Trent Dilfer
Jim Harbaugh is one of the very best in the business in terms of coming up with an effective game plan to counter a team’s strengths and attack their weaknesses. Couple that with the fact that the 49ers practice against the Zone Read Option all the time with Colin Kaepernick, and you’d think that they will try to come up with an effective counter for it. Personally, I’d look for LB Aldon Smith or FS Dashon Goldson to be that guy, as those 2 have a lot of speed and quickness.
But even if the 49ers DO commit 8 or even 9 defenders to the box and bring the heat … I like that idea because (though it may work early) … sooner or later a team’s going to get burned because that means a receiver is open and it undoubtedly means a big gain if the quarterback can find them. That kind of approach used to work against Matt Hasselbeck when he was younger … but as he gained experience that was a sure fire big gain for the Seahawks, as he made a living of recognizing that immediately and either hitting the quick crossing patterns OR handing the ball off on a trap play (which was often for a big gain) right up the middle (like the kind the 49ers burned the Seahawks with via Gore up the middle) if the defense was bringing the heat.
So, it will be very interesting indeed to see how Jim Harbaugh chooses to defend Russell Wilson. One thing I think most Seattle fans can agree with – the fate of the Seahawks this Sunday will undoubtedly be squarely upon the shoulders of #3. On Sunday, it’s going to be up to him and the offense to make a statement …
Key #4: Dominate the Dominion …
The Seahawks want to do far more than simply win this Sunday … they want to send a message to the rest of the NFL – to dominate a team that dominated them in so many ways just 6 weeks ago and prove that THEY are ready to challenge for supremacy in the NFC West. Seattle’s naturally going to want to demonstrate their superiority not only through the air … but also on the ground as well. The 49ers, as we’ve talked about many times in the past, are the Dominion of NFL Defenses though. Here’s how the Seahawks rush offense matches up against the 49ers run defense …
| Seahawks Off. Category | NFL Rank | 49ers Def. Category | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.0 Points Scored/Game | 11th Most | 15.6 Points Allowed/Game | tied for #1 w/Seahawks |
| 160.7 Rushing Yards/Game Avg. | 3rd | 91.1 Rushing Yds/Game Allowed Avg. | 3rd |
| 4.8 Rushing Yards/Att. Avg. | 5th | 3.6 Rushing Yds/Att. Allowed | 2nd Best |
| 11 Runs of 20+ Yards | tied for 11th Best | 7 Runs of 20+ Yards Allowed Avg. | tied for 8th Best |
| 14 Rushing TD’s | tied for 8th Most | 6 Rushing TD’s Allowed | tied for 3rd Best |
| 272 First Downs | 16th | 251 First Downs Allowed | tied for 3rd Fewest |
| 6 Rushing Fumbles | tied for 16th | 17 Forced Fumbles | tied for 9th Best |
| Stuffed Behind LOS 15% of Time | 2nd Best | 32 Tackles for Loss | 30th |
As you can see, though the Seahawks have been able to ram the ball down the throats of a lot of teams this year, they may have a tougher time of doing that this Sunday. The 49ers have been incredibly stingy when it comes to giving up real estate on the ground this year. Though they have not done as great of a job of penetrating in to opposing teams’ backfields and stuffing runners behind the line of scrimmage as often as other defenses … the Niners defenders just don’t budge much. What can we reasonably expect from the Seahawks and Marshawn Lynch against THIS 49ers defense this Sunday? Here is a look at how the Seahawks have done running the ball since these 2 teams last met …
| Week (Date) | Opp. | Result | Opp. Rush Yds/G Allwd | Car | Yards | Yds/Att | Long | TD’s | Game Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 (10/28) | at Lions | 24-28 (LOSS) | 119.4 (18th in NFL) | 19 | 133 | 7.0 | 77 | 1 | M Lynch 105 Yds & 1 TD/Wilson 1 Carry for 9 Yds |
| 9 (11/4) | vs. Vikings | 30-20 (WIN) | 113.3 (13th in NFL) | 45 | 195 | 4.3 | 23 | 1 | M Lynch 124 Yds & 1 TD/Wilson 9 Carries for 27 Yds |
| 10 (11/11) | vs. Jets | 28-7 (WIN) | 138.7 (29th in NFL) | 43 | 174 | 4.0 | 18 | 1 | M Lynch 124 Yds & 1 TD/Wilson 7 Carries for 34 Yds |
| 11 | BYE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 12 (11/25) | at Dolphins | 24-21 (LOSS) | 100.9 (8th in NFL) | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 20 | 0 | M Lynch 46 Yds/Wilson 5 Carries for 38 Yds |
| 13 (12/3) | at Bears | 23-17 (WIN) | 109.0 (12th in NFL) | 32 | 176 | 5.5 | 20 | 1 | M Lynch 87 Yds & 1 TD/Wilson 9 Carries for 71 Yds |
| 14 (12/9) | vs. Cardinals | 58-0 (WIN) | 136.5 (28th in NFL) | 42 | 284 | 6.8 | 33 | 4 | M Lynch 128 Yds & 3 TD/Turbin 20 Carries for 108 Yds/Wilson 3 Carries for 12 Yds |
| 15 (12/16) | at Bills | 50-17 (WIN) | 144.1(30th in NFL) | 32 | 270 | 8.4 | 54 | 4 | M Lynch 113 Yds & 1 TD/Wilson 9 Carries for 92 Yds & 3TD |
As Danny O’Neil pointed out, Seattle has averaged 189.7 Rushing Yards per game over the past 7 games. If Seattle had kept up that pace over the entire season … that means they would be gaining an average of 24.9 yards more per game than the Washington Redskins (who lead the league in rushing). But before we start buying our tickets to New Orleans, I can’t help but draw your attention to some of the caliber of defenses that the Seahawks have racked up those yards against. The Dolphins, the Vikings, and the Bears are the toughest run defenses they faced over that time frame. Though Marshawn Lynch had a good day against the Vikings, he frankly didn’t do so hot against either the Dolphins or the Bears – and this Sunday he’s going up against a defense MUCH stronger than either of those. That said, the Seahawks DID have 136 yards rushing against the 49ers during their first meeting in Candlestick, as Lynch had 103 yards on 19 carries (that’s a 5.4 yards/carry average). And though the Hawks lost that game 19-17, Lynch did have 107 yards (he averaged 5.1 yards/carry) and a touchdown last year against San Francisco in Seattle. So, it’ll be very interesting to see what happens on that front for sure.
Let’s take a more in depth look at some of the key match-ups of the day …
RDE Justin Smith and LB Aldon Smith vs. LT Russell Okung and LG Paul McQuistan…
Outside of Russell Wilson himself, the marquee match-up of the day will be how well Seattle’s left side of the offensive line plays against the 49ers studs on that side. Left Tackle Russell Okung (6’5” 310 pounds) is very quietly having himself a Pro Bowl Season. Okung has allowed only 1 Sack all season long and is as good of a left tackle as you’ll find in the game. LG Paul McQuistan (6’6” 315 pounds), has been equally as solid in pass protection himself this year. According to
Pro Football Weekly, McQuistan has allowed only .5 Sacks and had only 2 holding penalties on the season. Though the left side of Seattle’s offensive line has played well, they’re not facing pee-wee league defenders on Sunday.
Aldon Smith (6’4” 258 pounds) is about as far from your average linebacker as Frankenstein’s monster is from Fabio. Smith has most certainly been alive and on the rampage, as he is not just having a Pro Bowl Season, he is having one for the ages. No one in the NFL has struck more paydirt than the Texans J.J. Watt … and San Francisco’s Aldon Smith. With 19.5 Sacks on the season, Smith (and Watt who also has 19.5 sacks) comes in to this game needing just 3 more to tie the all time mark for sacks in a single season that Michael Strahan set in 2002 (22.5). Needless to say, it would be a good idea to know where #99 is on the field at all times. As a side note, he was limited in practice on Thursday with a shoulder issue.
Aldon Smith is able to do what he does because of what the OTHER Smith does right in front of him – RDE Justin Smith (6’4” 285 pounds). Herein lies one of the biggest keys in this game – break out your highlighters here folks. Justin Smith suffered an elbow injury in the Patriots game somewhere towards the end of the 3rd Quarter and did not return for the 4th Quarter. Justin Smith’s exit from the Patriots game pretty much coincided with New England’s monster comeback, as Brady and company were able to rack up 24 points in the 4th Quarter. The 49ers went from being up 31-3 … to suddenly being tied at 31-31 after he left. Those people who are closest to the 49ers and have really followed them say losing Justin Smith would be a major blow. Though Jim Harbaugh said on Tuesday that Smith will be ready to “rope cattle” on Sunday … he has since backed off that strong stance. Neither Mike Sando nor John Clayton are convinced that Smith will play … and it’s now being reported that Smith is doubtful for this game. If he’s as hurt as it sounds like he is, I’m skeptical that he’ll play as well. After all, we’re not talking about a guy who’s 23 here – Justin Smith is 33 years old and has racked up a lot of mileage on his body during in his 12 years in the league. No matter how good you are, sooner or later the incessant pounding of having played 185 consecutive games catches up to you. Justin Smith did not practice Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
If for some reason Justin Smith can’t go on Sunday, it will be extremely interesting to see what the 49ers choose to do there. After he left the game this past Sunday, second year DT Will Tukuafu (6’4” 293 pounds) out of Oregon came in and played the remainder of the game. He is listed as Justin Smith’s back-up … but Tukuafu was also listed as being limited in practice on Thursday with a concussion. Beyond that, the air starts to get fairly thin for the Niners, as there is simply no one on this defense who can do what Justin Smith does. DT Ricky Jean Francois (6’3” 295 pounds) has been practicing all week in his place, so all signs point to him starting on Sunday. If I’m Darrell Bevell … I know exactly what side of the line I’m attacking.
LDE Ray McDonald vs. RT Breno Giacomini …
Though this match-up won’t draw as much attention as some of the others, in many ways it’s no less important. Ray McDonald (6’3” 290 pounds) is coming off a very solid performance against the Patriots in which he had 2 Sacks, 2 hits on Tom Brady, and 2 Tackles for Loss. Seahawks RT Breno Giacomini (6’7” 318 pounds) did a good job against him the last time around (as McDonald registered only 2 tackles) and he’s going to have to continue to bring that same nasty attitude and intensity this weekend.
Seahawks Receiving Corps vs. 49ers Secondary …
Russell Wilson isn’t the only one who needs to step up in this game. Seahawks receivers are going to have to show up on Sunday, because they most certainly didn’t last time. Seattle’s wide receivers had 5 dropped passes in the first San Francisco game. Golden Tate dropped 2 passes … Braylon Edwards dropped one … Evan Moore dropped one… and Robert Turbin dropped one that looked like it would have been a sure touchdown. Sidney Rice had just 1 ball thrown his way in the entire first half and finished with only 2 catches in that game. If not for all those drops, Russell Wilson would have finished 14 for 23 (a 60.8% Comp. Rate) – the same basic completion rate he has had all season long. Instead, Wilson appeared to try to force the issue, throwing a ball in to triple coverage as he was about to get sacked. Instead of a big completion to Edwards … the ball was picked off by Dashon Goldson.
Free Safety Dashon Goldson (6’2” 200 pounds) comes in to this game with 64 tackles, 10 Passes Defensed, and 3 interceptions on the season. He had a key fumble recovery in the Patriots game last week and is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Strong Safety Donte Whitner (5’10” 208 pounds) is 3rd on the team with 73 tackles on the season and is certainly a player who brings a lot of thump. LCB Carlos Rogers (6’0” 192 pounds) is another guy who can be disruptive, as he helped keep Sidney Rice and Golden Tate under wraps for most of the day last time. Rogers had a key interception of Tom Brady that he returned for 63 yards in the Patriots game, so this guy can make plays. RCB Tarrell Brown (5’10” 193 pounds) has 11 Passes Defensed … and Nickel Back Chris Culliver (6’0” 199 pounds) 13 Passes Defensed on the year, so these are all defensive backs who can really run, tackle, and bat down passes.
Golden Tate, Zach Miller, and Doug Baldwin were all players who really pulled a disappearing act for the most the first time around. Sidney Rice has been a bit banged up with a knee issue that has limited him in practice this week, but should be ready to go on Sunday. For sure though, he’s going to need some help. Against this defensive backfield, the Seahawks receiving corps as a whole is simply going to have to have a much better showing than they had last time.
Other gold nuggets who could be shiny on Sunday …
LB NaVorro Bowman (6’0” 242 pounds) leads the 49ers with 128 Tackles on the season. Lynch and Wilson will be undoubtedly be greeted by Bowman often on Sunday.
LB Patrick Willis (6’1” 240 pounds) is #2 on the team with 110 Tackles this season. Willis is also an extremely capable pass defender, as he has 8 Passes Defensed and an interception to boot.
LB Ahmad Brooks (6’3” 259 pounds) is another who shouldn’t get lost in the shuffle either. He has 5.5 sacks … 5 Tackles for Loss (2nd on the team) … and 6 Passes Defensed this year. Though he’s not as talked about as the others, this is a very quality defender as well.
San Francisco’s Defense (and their Front 7 for sure) is the best in football. They are a very physical group that is phenomenal at stopping opposing offenses. Interestingly enough though, the numbers suggest that Seattle may find success if they can actually get down in to scoring territory …
That hasn’t happened very often obviously, as we’re talking about a 49ers team that is tied with the Seahawks for the fewest points allowed in the league (15.6 Pts/Game Avg.). This game is about so much more than the X’s and O’s though …
Key #5: Have the Superior Intellect …
This 49ers-Seahawks game isn’t just about the guys in the uniforms … it’s also very much about the two head minds on the sidelines as well. The Pete Carroll-Jim Harbaugh feud is one of the great rivalries in all of sports and goes back a few years now …
Jim Harbaugh was hired by Stanford to be their head coach in December of 2006. At that time, Pete Carroll was the big dog of the PAC-10, as USC had won 11 games for 5 straight seasons and the National Title in both 2003 and 2004. From the moment he was hired, it was like Harbaugh painted a giant bulls-eye on Carroll and made it his life’s mission to take the big dog down.
In March of 2007 (Prior to his first season as head coach), Harbaugh garnered attention by telling the media, "Pete Carroll's only got one more year, though. He'll be there one more year. That's what I've heard. I heard it inside the staff." When asked further about it, he claimed that he’d heard it from members of the USC coaching staff. Carroll was not very happy about that and when contacted by the L.A. Times told them, "If he's going to make statements like that, he ought to get his information right. And if he has any questions about it he should call me."
In 2007, Harbaugh’s Stanford Cardinal shocked Carroll’s USC Trojans in their very first meeting, as they lost at home to Stanford 24-23. USC entered that game favored by 41 points and had a 35 game home winning streak prior to that game. In contrast, Stanford had a PAC-10 worst 1-11 season the year prior to Harbaugh’s arrival.
The next year in 2008, Carroll responded by handing Stanford a 45-23 thumping at their place. It was a loss that Harbaugh wouldn’t soon forget.
On November 14, 2009, Harbaugh’s Stanford Cardinal again found themselves 11 point underdogs to USC. They traveled to Los Angeles Memorial Stadium … and handed USC their worst loss ever 55-21. With 7 minutes left to go in that game, Stanford got a touchdown to make the score 48-21. Instead of kicking the extra point … Harbaugh apparently tried to send a message by going for the 2 point conversion (a decision that drew raucous boos from the crowd). After that game, Carroll seeking an explanation, asked Harbaugh, “What’s your deal?” Harbaugh responded by throwing the same question back in his face.
Harbaugh, Kansas State’s Bill Snyder, and Oregon’s Chip Kelly are the only ones who have winning records against Carroll. On January 11, 2011 – 4 days after winning the Orange Bowl (and 1 year and 3 days after Carroll was hired by the Seahawks), Harbaugh was brought on board by the 49ers to be their head coach.
In so many ways, these two guys are mirror images of one another …
Both of these guys are ultra-competitive and will do whatever it takes to win.
Both of these guys have great football minds and are fantastic in their ability to draw up game plans to effectively attack their opponent’s weaknesses.
Both of these guys place an emphasis on hard-nosed, rock-‘em-sock-‘em defense … and on wanting to run the football (subsequently both of them have teams that do exactly that).
Both of these guys have quarterbacks who are strong armed, are mobile, run the Zone Read Option, and have defenses that practice against it all the time.
Since being hired by the 49ers prior to the 2011 Season, Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 vs. Pete Carroll. Carroll has been accused the past couple of games of running up the score. Well believe me, Pete Carroll doesn’t just want to win this game … he wants to grind Harbaugh and the 49ers in to the dirt. Sunday’s game is very personal for both of these head coaches and the outcome will go a long ways towards determining just who the superior intellect really is.
Bold Prediction …
Back-up guard J.R. Sweezy encapsulated Seahawks players’ mentality coming in to this game this week, saying, “This is the Super Bowl for us.” Emotions are going to be running high in this game, as both teams want this win badly. Over the last 3 games Seattle has played at Century Link Field, opposing teams have turned the ball over an amazing 13 times. Though Colin Kaepernick has been preparing for this game all week, he has never played at Century Link Field before. Former Seahawks and Huskies QB Brock Huard noted this week that Kaepernick is still working on his technique of taking the ball from under center, as 99.9% of his snaps that he took in college at Nevada were from the shotgun. Given that the noise at Century Link can rival that of a jet engine, I’d say that it’s possible that could be an issue. Additionally, San Francisco kick and punt returner Ted Ginn, Jr. has had his share of problems holding on to the ball this year, as he has 4 fumbles on season. So, I believe it’s highly likely that the 49ers will have some miscues in this game.
According to the Mayan Calendar, December of 2012 is going to be the end of the world. Well, you know the Apocalypse is truly upon us when ESPN national radio talk show host Colin Cowherd (a well known Seahawks basher) boldly states that the Seahawks are the 2nd Best team in the NFL and predicts that they will end up in the Super Bowl this year.
Though Harbaugh has the edge at this point over Carroll, Seattle’s home field advantage in this game can’t be overlooked. Including playoffs, the Seahawks are 61 and 31 at home since 2002 (a .663 Winning%). That’s the 2nd Best Home Record in the league over that time behind only Green Bay (who is 64-30 and have had a .681 Winning% over that same time frame).
Though the experts are officially calling this one a “pick ‘em” game … I’m going out on a limb and saying that the Seahawks live long and prosper in a close, hard fought contest.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 20
49ers 14
“Kapla!” (Klingon translation: Success!)
