Chicago beats Green Bay
&
Carolina beats the Saints

No rest: Seahawks ‘going for it’ Sunday vs. 49ers, trying to secure NFC’s top playoff seed

BY GREGG BELL. DECEMBER 28, 2020 05:12 PM


https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/n ... 38315.html

Am I in the minority here? I find this scenario to hardly be a stretch.

No, no, I have no disillusionment over assuming the way most think it's going to turn out is precisely how it turns out. If I am in Vegas, the cards are heavily stacked against me. Yet, when diving deep, I start to see that this isn't as uncredulous as it first appears.

Look at the Bears last month. Are they not trending upwards to a surprising degree? Even Mitch has lifted some eyebrows as of late. Is it all that crazy to think that the Bears couldn't take this game from the Packers? Especially that they just lost their tackle Bakhtiari for the season? That's like us losing Brown this week.

And the Saints? In Carolina. They only lost by 3 to the Saints in the first matchup. Watch them and you can clearly see they are no push overs. While they may need another year or two, this team is built to upset a playoff team RIGHT NOW.

So outside chance for the Hawks to grab that #1 seed? Sure, I would agree with that.

But don't be at all surprised if it happens Sunday.

Aros wrote:Am I in the minority here? I find this scenario to hardly be a stretch.

No, no, I have no disillusionment over assuming the way most think it's going to turn out is precisely how it turns out. If I am in Vegas, the cards are heavily stacked against me. Yet, when diving deep, I start to see that this isn't as uncredulous as it first appears.

Look at the Bears last month. Are they not trending upwards to a surprising degree? Even Mitch has lifted some eyebrows as of late. Is it all that crazy to think that the Bears couldn't take this game from the Packers? Especially that they just lost their tackle Bakhtiari for the season? That's like us losing Brown this week.

And the Saints? In Carolina. They only lost by 3 to the Saints in the first matchup. Watch them and you can clearly see they are no push overs. While they may need another year or two, this team is built to upset a playoff team RIGHT NOW.

So outside chance for the Hawks to grab that #1 seed? Sure, I would agree with that.

But don't be at all surprised if it happens Sunday.

The Bears have lost nine of the last 10 games against the Packers. They've lost 21 of 26 during the Aaron Rodgers era.

The Saints have won eight of the last ten meetings against the Panthers.

The Bears winning would be an upset. The Panthers winning would be a really big upset. The Seahawks still have to win their game.

The correct thing to do is to play for it here, but mathematically it's a pretty low (single digit %) probability of working out. But so is the probability of the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl. You just play for it and see what happens.

bmorepunk wrote:The Bears have lost nine of the last 10 games against the Packers. They've lost 21 of 26 during the Aaron Rodgers era.

The Saints have won eight of the last ten meetings against the Panthers.

OK. Let's assume the Packers have a 80% (21/26) chance of winning and Saints have an 80% (8/10) chance of winning.

Using those percentages, if the Seahawks win they have a 64% chance at the #3 seed, a 32% chance at the #2 seed, and a 4% chance at the #1 seed.

I believe that odds are more like Packers 60% / Saints 70%. Which means a Seahawks win gives them a 42% chance at the #3 seed, a 46% chance at the #2 seed, and a 12% chance at the #1 seed.

Football Outsiders has it at #1 - 6.9%, #2 - 18.7%, #3 - 65.2%.

Whatever the real odds are, anything can happen. Getting the #2 seed also means a decent chance of homefield throughout. The 49ers game is probably much more important than it appears.

In my mind, a Chicago win over GB would not surprise me. The Bears are playing for their playoff lives. This is essentially a playoff game for them. But Carolina beating the Saints, even without Kamara, would be a very big surprise. Obviously the Panthers have nothing to play for at this point, and the players are already thinking about where they're going to go on vacation in the offseason.

As much as I would love to see this play out in our favor, it's highly unlikely. That being said, I'll definitely be scoreboard watching as I'm watching the Hawks game on Sunday, and hoping for a miracle.

They have a puncher's chance against N.O. who won't have Kamara and several others. They won a tough game last weekend against WFT and only lost in the first contest by 3. As well several of the players on the Panthers are playing for jobs next season and if they fail to show up that may seal their NFL careers.

For the as well Teddy B is playing against the team he practiced against last season. I predict a close game.

If nothing else I'd like the Hawks to leap frog over GB so the game between the team would be in our house (I'm a 12). That said for the team there Are advantages available to play for tomorrow and a W may help greatly later in the playoffs.

I'd rest them. Both teams losing would be a huge surprise.
I don't think the odds make sense for us to be all in.

Is it worth the injury risk?

Elemas wrote:I'd rest them. Both teams losing would be a huge surprise.
I don't think the odds make sense for us to be all in.

Is it worth the injury risk?

If Seahawks win and only 1 of GB/NO loses, Seahawks get the 2 seed - likely Divisional playoff game at home instead of on the road.

renofox wrote:

Elemas wrote:I'd rest them. Both teams losing would be a huge surprise.
I don't think the odds make sense for us to be all in.

Is it worth the injury risk?

If Seahawks win and only 1 of GB/NO loses, Seahawks get the 2 seed - likely Divisional playoff game at home instead of on the road.

Thanks for the correction. Not sure why I was only focused on both losing.

In that case, all in.

Aros wrote:Am I in the minority here? I find this scenario to hardly be a stretch.

No, no, I have no disillusionment over assuming the way most think it's going to turn out is precisely how it turns out. If I am in Vegas, the cards are heavily stacked against me. Yet, when diving deep, I start to see that this isn't as uncredulous as it first appears.

Look at the Bears last month. Are they not trending upwards to a surprising degree? Even Mitch has lifted some eyebrows as of late. Is it all that crazy to think that the Bears couldn't take this game from the Packers? Especially that they just lost their tackle Bakhtiari for the season? That's like us losing Brown this week.

And the Saints? In Carolina. They only lost by 3 to the Saints in the first matchup. Watch them and you can clearly see they are no push overs. While they may need another year or two, this team is built to upset a playoff team RIGHT NOW.

So outside chance for the Hawks to grab that #1 seed? Sure, I would agree with that.

But don't be at all surprised if it happens Sunday.

My goodness... you have me convinced... Holy moley man!! to bad the wife took my check book... dang!! LOL


LTH

I'm guessing we'll get one out of two. Either the packers or saints lose. Definitely not both. Seahawks still need to win their game. Get the #2 seed and stay at home as long as we can.

LTH wrote:My goodness... you have me convinced... Holy moley man!! to bad the wife took my check book... dang!! LOL

Well someone's gotta rally the troops!

We’re with you fearless leader

538 is giving it a 4% chance. 71% chance at the 3.

Just 'ballparking' it, I estimate we have about a 5% chance for the #1 seed, a 20% chance for the #2 seed, and a 75% chance we are the #3 seed. That said, anyone that has played DND knows that natural 20s (5% chance) do happen.

Wow, it will be 1and done if they play like we’re playing now against the 49ers.

All due credit to the Niners, their defense is too banged up for our offense to be playing like this against them.

stack55 wrote:Wow, it will be 1and done if they play like we’re playing now against the 49ers.

The niners are better than their record and having Seattle lay a last game egg is not new. I am confident we will play a lot better next week. We are going to be the #3 seed no matter what. Neither the packers nor the saints are going to lose.