You are right the Geno Contract implies that Pete and John don't fully trust Geno to be the QB of 2024 and 2025 so can cut him if he revert back to the Geno of the Jets.
However trading down for a 2024 1st rounder (or more) is consistent with that. If Geno continues at probowl level we can use the draft capital to make a final push for the SB, if he regresses we have the capital to get a high ranked QB then.
My position is about the players available this draft, and the context of the franchise--which is a year or two away from really being in contention. If you doubt that, go back and watch the 2nd half of the playoff game against the Niners. Watch any games against the Niners. The Hawks were competitive 2 out of 12 quarters.
It's going to take a couple of years.
To your point, if Geno doesn't work out, what do you think the odds are such a pick in 2024 would be as high as 5? And what do you think the odds are that he QB class will have several prospects with many ideal traits that John is probably excited about?
The confluence of these two factors is the presentation of
a rare opportunity. Pete and John have both said it. The reason Seattle didn't think long and hard about drafting a QB in the first last year isn't because they were certain Geno would play as well as he did. It was about the players in the 2022 draft.
And I'm old fashioned, but being in a situation to not start a rookie immediately is greatly preferable. I don't think you're going to find many Chiefs fans that are worried about using a pick on Mahomes, who didn't start until the last game or two of the regular season. And you won't find many Packers fan that take issue with Aaron Rodgers riding the bench for three years.
Even if Geno is dynamite in 2023, having the next guy loaded up isn't the worst thing, is it?
Also: they have four other picks inthe top 86. Drafting QB at 5 doesn't prevent building the roster in some other areas.