A Blowout is coming!

[plyka]

From memory, there have been three times that I've predicted a blowout this season for the Seahawks.

1) 49ers at home
2) Saints at home
3) Rams at home

All three times I've been right on the money. Although my memory has a habit of forgetting when i'm wrong, so don't quote me on it, lol.

This is the 4th game I'm calling for a BLOWOUT! What are the reasons? Well, they are the same reasons I used in the last Saints game sans 1: Saints are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are no longer the most overrated team. Now everyone understands their limitations to a large extent. But the other reasons why this will be a blowout are exactly the same:

1) The Saints CANNOT rush the ball. During the season, they had a 3.8 yard per rush average. This is horrible, it is atrocious, it is just flat out BAD. Now that they rushed the ball against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Eagles, people are saying: "they have to commit to the run." Folks, this team cannot rush. They will not commit to something they are incompetent in. What makes this statistic the absolute worst is that the Saints have a great passing attack --which means they should have a high YPA rushing wise, because defenses are set up to defend the pass.

2) The Saints CANNOT STOP the rush. They are god awful at stopping the rush. They allow 4.6 yards per rush. This is against the crap row of teams they have played this season. This is a major weakness.

3) The Saints have a gamble high risk defense. They need to blitz and trick people in order to get pressure. They cannot line up 4 rushers and get pressure. They need to bring blitzes from all angles. Against bad teams with bad QBs, these tactics work like a charm. Against better teams, this is not a defense which can be considered a strength. The Seahawks' weakness is when a team plays straight up --rushes 4, and gets pressure, plays soft man on the receivers. Very stout up front, where your front 7 can stop the Seahawks' run. The Saints are the exact opposite.

4) The Seahawks will call this game just like they did the first time. They took RISKS, they did not play conservative. I expect the same in this game.

Blowout's a coming folks...get ready for a snoozer.

 

[AROS]

Aros approves this message.

 

[iigakusei]

They did stop Marshawn in the 1st meeting and McCoy in the playoff game.
I do agree with you though that the Saints won't be able to run the ball.

 

[WindCityHawk]

They rushed for 180 yard last week and stopped Shady McCoy. We can probably go ahead and throw regular season numbers right in the trash at this point.

 

[Axx]

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I am not calling for a blowout, because I don't think Rob Ryan will gamble like he did the first game. All that blitzing led to Russell burning the Saints for long gains and TD's, which let the game get away from the Saints very early.

IMO this game will be more of a grind because the Saints will play conservative defense, which means we'll have to go on 70-80 yard 12 play drives if we want to score, as opposed to quick strikes downfield in a hurry. I still think we'll win, but it'll be more of a pulling away in the late 3rd/4th quarter 24-14 kind of game.

 

[mikeak]

I am not calling for a blowout, because I don't think Rob Ryan will gamble like he did the first game. All that blitzing led to Russell burning the Saints for long gains and TD's, which let the game get away from the Saints very early.
.

Starting the week I was thinking this exact thing. Ryan saw how RW did against the blitz. Tape will tell that RW has done that all year long against the blitz so no way he blitzes to much.

Then I considered the Saints secondary especially considering injuries and realized they are truly between a rock and hard place.

Their secondary is in dire straits. So do you give RW time for the big plays or do you blitz him for the shorter gains......

My fear is that we use the Miami game plan from last year. We are so determined to control the ball and the clock that we keep running despite knowing we are facing a bad secondary.

 

[tmobilchawker79]

I'm going to think that Rob Ryan will still bring the heat. He understands that if Russ has time in the pocket he finds plays downfield either with his arm or his legs. I think they're just low on talent in the back end now that Vacarro is out. I see a lot of crossing routes challenging the LB's and corners to win on matchups that they can't. I see a big day from our TE's.

 

[plyka]

They did stop Marshawn in the 1st meeting and McCoy in the playoff game.
I do agree with you though that the Saints won't be able to run the ball.

"They did stop Marshawn in the 1st meeting "

Yes, but the important point is how much did they have to do in order to stop the run? The lined up heavy in the box and made themselves light/weak against the pass. Every team can stop the rush of any other team if they give 100% resources. Imagine 11 defenders in the box? Opposing teams would get 0 yards each game, but they would score a few hundred points as no one is covering their WRs. This is the extreme example to prove a point. Arizona was so tough because they didn't really stack the box. They did play 7 man fronts and some 8 man fronts.

"...and McCoy in the playoff game"

The difference is subtle here. The Eagles did have the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. But there is a massive difference between the Eagle's rush offense and the Seahawks or the 49ers. The Eagle's have a "soft" run attack, with only 1 option. It is still very dynamic, because that 1 option can catch, can run, screens, flats, even take DBs deep. The Seahwakws/niners have a double threat --RB and QB. The trickery comes with the QB. But the RB is a hard runner. He is punishing. He runs right over you. If you stop the Eagle's RB then you can catch him for losses. The HAwks/niners have punishing runners that always seem to get a few yards and wear you down.

 

[mikeak]

^Plyka - did you see McCoy's stats for 1st quarter vs 4th quarter? Went from like 3-4 yards to 6 yards in the 4th (going off memory). Eagles system may be soft but there is nothing about McCoy's running style that is.

With that said I agree with your post in general just wouldn't downplay what the Saints did.

To me the biggest difference is the Saints could move the ball against the Eagles in a way they can't against us. I was impressed by Ingram and the second guy (Robinson?) and think they will run more against us than normal during the season. The best way to stop that is quick scoring by the Seahawks

 

[Uncle Si]

They rushed for 180 yard last week and stopped Shady McCoy. We can probably go ahead and throw regular season numbers right in the trash at this point.

Because 16 games is far less an indication of strength and weakness than one...

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I'm going to think that Rob Ryan will still bring the heat. He understands that if Russ has time in the pocket he finds plays downfield either with his arm or his legs. I think they're just low on talent in the back end now that Vacarro is out. I see a lot of crossing routes challenging the LB's and corners to win on matchups that they can't. I see a big day from our TE's.

Ryan didn't hardly blitz at all during the Eagles game, so I expect that trend to continue.......especially against a mobile QB like Wilson and when Harvin's on the field.

You just don't blitz a lot against the Hawks, because it spells doom with Russell avoiding it and making you pay dearly. Look for more of the Cardinals approach, slow rush the ends to contain Wilson, stop the run and make the Hawks go on long scoring drives.

 

[plyka]

I am not calling for a blowout, because I don't think Rob Ryan will gamble like he did the first game. All that blitzing led to Russell burning the Saints for long gains and TD's, which let the game get away from the Saints very early.

IMO this game will be more of a grind because the Saints will play conservative defense, which means we'll have to go on 70-80 yard 12 play drives if we want to score, as opposed to quick strikes downfield in a hurry. I still think we'll win, but it'll be more of a pulling away in the late 3rd/4th quarter 24-14 kind of game.

So they are going to do a complete 180 on the game plan they have been using the entire year? I don't think so. Nor would I recommend it for the Saints. They cannot get any pressure on the QB without bliztes. If they play conservative defense, the Seahawks will march on them up and down the field with long drives consuming clock and consisting on a lot of Lynch runs. I think they will dial it back a bit, but mostly follow the same game plan they have been following the entire year.

This is the worst possible matchup for the saints. The Seahawks strength is their defense but especially their pass defense which may be historic. On offense, the Seahawks match up even better with the Saints who lack a defense that can bring pressure without the blitz.

^Plyka - did you see McCoy's stats for 1st quarter vs 4th quarter? Went from like 3-4 yards to 6 yards in the 4th (going off memory). Eagles system may be soft but there is nothing about McCoy's running style that is.

With that said I agree with your post in general just wouldn't downplay what the Saints did.

To me the biggest difference is the Saints could move the ball against the Eagles in a way they can't against us. I was impressed by Ingram and the second guy (Robinson?) and think they will run more against us than normal during the season. The best way to stop that is quick scoring by the Seahawks

I don't mean to take anything away from Shady, he is an incredible talent. But he isn't a power runner. He is not going to punish you like Lynch. I think Mccoy is a better RB than either Lynch or Gore, but he has a completely different style. He reminds me more of Reggie Bush than Marshawn Lynch.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I am not calling for a blowout, because I don't think Rob Ryan will gamble like he did the first game. All that blitzing led to Russell burning the Saints for long gains and TD's, which let the game get away from the Saints very early.

IMO this game will be more of a grind because the Saints will play conservative defense, which means we'll have to go on 70-80 yard 12 play drives if we want to score, as opposed to quick strikes downfield in a hurry. I still think we'll win, but it'll be more of a pulling away in the late 3rd/4th quarter 24-14 kind of game.

So they are going to do a complete 180 on the game plan they have been using the entire year? I don't think so. Nor would I recommend it for the Saints. They cannot get any pressure on the QB without bliztes. If they play conservative defense, the Seahawks will march on them up and down the field with long drives consuming clock and consisting on a lot of Lynch runs. I think they will dial it back a bit, but mostly follow the same game plan they have been following the entire year.

This is the worst possible matchup for the saints. The Seahawks strength is their defense but especially their pass defense which may be historic. On offense, the Seahawks match up even better with the Saints who lack a defense that can bring pressure without the blitz.

Like I said in my post above you, Rob Ryan barely blitzed in the Eagles game. Pete alluded to that yesterday, that Ryan loves to mix it up. So to say they've blitzed ALL the time ALL year is inaccurate. Ryan changes it up often, as do most coordinators.

The last thing you want to be on either sides of the ball is predictable, so I stand by my comments. I do not expect a lot of blitzing.

 

[plyka]

I am not calling for a blowout, because I don't think Rob Ryan will gamble like he did the first game. All that blitzing led to Russell burning the Saints for long gains and TD's, which let the game get away from the Saints very early.

IMO this game will be more of a grind because the Saints will play conservative defense, which means we'll have to go on 70-80 yard 12 play drives if we want to score, as opposed to quick strikes downfield in a hurry. I still think we'll win, but it'll be more of a pulling away in the late 3rd/4th quarter 24-14 kind of game.

So they are going to do a complete 180 on the game plan they have been using the entire year? I don't think so. Nor would I recommend it for the Saints. They cannot get any pressure on the QB without bliztes. If they play conservative defense, the Seahawks will march on them up and down the field with long drives consuming clock and consisting on a lot of Lynch runs. I think they will dial it back a bit, but mostly follow the same game plan they have been following the entire year.

This is the worst possible matchup for the saints. The Seahawks strength is their defense but especially their pass defense which may be historic. On offense, the Seahawks match up even better with the Saints who lack a defense that can bring pressure without the blitz.

Like I said in my post above you, Rob Ryan barely blitzed in the Eagles game. Pete alluded to that yesterday, that Ryan loves to mix it up. So to say they've blitzed ALL the time ALL year is inaccurate. Ryan changes it up often, as do most coordinators.

The last thing you want to be on either sides of the ball is predictable, so I stand by my comments. I do not expect a lot of blitzing.

From what I saw they still blitzed the eagles pretty regularly. We will see what they do with the Hawks, but I HIGHLY doubt that they will reduce the blitz much. The reason is that they cannot reduce the blitz. To say that they will play more like the Arizona Cardinals is paramount to saying that I will run more like Percy Harvin. I can't run like Percy. I don't have his speed. Arizona has an incredible defensive line. They are very tough and very stout. They do not need much assistance. Arizona currently ranks as the #2 best defense in the league in weighted defense according to Football Outsiders. It's not only their rank, but how they are built. New Orleans simply does not have the ability to play defense like Arizona. They don't have the defensive line to not give them assistance --if they want to bring pressure, they will have to bring help. Otherwise Wilson will sit back and get 4 seconds in the pocket. Lynch will get to the 2nd level before being touched. ETC.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

From what I saw they still blitzed the eagles pretty regularly. We will see what they do with the Hawks, but I HIGHLY doubt that they will reduce the blitz much. The reason is that they cannot reduce the blitz. To say that they will play more like the Arizona Cardinals is paramount to saying that I will run more like Percy Harvin. I can't run like Percy. I don't have his speed. Arizona has an incredible defensive line. They are very tough and very stout. They do not need much assistance. Arizona currently ranks as the #2 best defense in the league in weighted defense according to Football Outsiders. It's not only their rank, but how they are built. New Orleans simply does not have the ability to play defense like Arizona. They don't have the defensive line to not give them assistance --if they want to bring pressure, they will have to bring help. Otherwise Wilson will sit back and get 4 seconds in the pocket. Lynch will get to the 2nd level before being touched. ETC.

I never said scheming more like the Cards would work, I just said I don't expect a ton of blitzes, especially with Harvin playing. That's a recipe for disaster, leaving one DB and a safety to cover Harvin in space.

I also base this opinion on listening to the Saints all week saying that the main reason they lost is because they were too aggressive on both sides of the ball in the first game, which led to the game getting away from them with big plays from our D and Russell throwing downfield due to blitzes.

 

[TheWallE]

From memory, there have been three times that I've predicted a blowout this season for the Seahawks.

1) 49ers at home
2) Saints at home
3) Rams at home

All three times I've been right on the money. Although my memory has a habit of forgetting when i'm wrong, so don't quote me on it, lol.

This is the 4th game I'm calling for a BLOWOUT! What are the reasons? Well, they are the same reasons I used in the last Saints game sans 1: Saints are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are no longer the most overrated team. Now everyone understands their limitations to a large extent. But the other reasons why this will be a blowout are exactly the same:

1) The Saints CANNOT rush the ball. During the season, they had a 3.8 yard per rush average. This is horrible, it is atrocious, it is just flat out BAD. Now that they rushed the ball against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Eagles, people are saying: "they have to commit to the run." Folks, this team cannot rush. They will not commit to something they are incompetent in. What makes this statistic the absolute worst is that the Saints have a great passing attack --which means they should have a high YPA rushing wise, because defenses are set up to defend the pass.

2) The Saints CANNOT STOP the rush. They are god awful at stopping the rush. They allow 4.6 yards per rush. This is against the crap row of teams they have played this season. This is a major weakness.

3) The Saints have a gamble high risk defense. They need to blitz and trick people in order to get pressure. They cannot line up 4 rushers and get pressure. They need to bring blitzes from all angles. Against bad teams with bad QBs, these tactics work like a charm. Against better teams, this is not a defense which can be considered a strength. The Seahawks' weakness is when a team plays straight up --rushes 4, and gets pressure, plays soft man on the receivers. Very stout up front, where your front 7 can stop the Seahawks' run. The Saints are the exact opposite.

4) The Seahawks will call this game just like they did the first time. They took RISKS, they did not play conservative. I expect the same in this game.

Blowout's a coming folks...get ready for a snoozer.

Thats a pretty good track record for pinpointing potential blowouts this year. Allow me to respectfully disagree with a few of your points however:

1) The Saints absolutely CAN run the ball. Are they great at it? No. Are the inconsistent at best? Yep. However, teams with similar 'poor' rushing units according to the Stats have gone into Seattle and had lots of success:
Tampa Bay had over 200 yards
Arizona had 139

The point is, it can be done, and this New Orleans rushing attack is coming off one of their stronger efforts.

2) The Saints CAN stop the run. The Saints have in fact faced 5 of the top 10 rushers in 2013 (including the top 2 and your own Marshawn Lynch) and none of those 5 have rushed for over 100 yards. Their defensive front is more than capable of playing at a high level. Take last week for an example: Philly is one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, lead by a monster rushing attack that averaged over 160 yards a game. The Saints D went on the road, in the sub freezing temperature, and held them to less than half of their season average. They are more than capable of stopping the run.

3) You are completely wrong about the tenor of this Saints defense. The Saints are one of the NFL leaders in sacks with two players in the top 6. Both of those players are defensive ends, and the majority of our pressure looks come with four men up front or a minimal risk blitz from the LBs. The era of the Saints playing crash and all out blitz football has come and gone. The Saints are one of the better teams at developing pressure with their defensive front.

Add to that the already mentioned successes this team is capable of having stoping the run and you see why New Orleans finished the season ranked 4th over all on defense. They absolutely can play good defense, and your premise is incorrect that it folds when up against good offenses (see last week)

4) I sincerely hope the Seahawks call this game the exact same way, that is step one for a huge blunder. Because New Orleans is absolutely NOT going to call the game the same way, which means the outcome is 100% guaranteed to be different. Historically games of this nature (A playoff rematch of a regular season blowout) are very rarely similar outcomes to the first meeting. In fact the team that loses the first game in this scenario is 13-12 in the rematch. Showcasing that blowing out a team in the regular season is not as massive of an advantage as would seem.

 

[Seahawks1983]

They rushed for 180 yard last week and stopped Shady McCoy. We can probably go ahead and throw regular season numbers right in the trash at this point.

The Eagles had one of the worst defenses in the league this year.

 

[TheWallE]

They rushed for 180 yard last week and stopped Shady McCoy. We can probably go ahead and throw regular season numbers right in the trash at this point.

The Eagles had one of the worst defenses in the league this year.

True, but that only accounts for half of this. The Saints were able to stop the Number 1 rush offense for just under half of their season average. This is also not the first time the Saints took on a top 10 RB or top rushing offense and held them in check.

 

[jlwaters1]

They rushed for 180 yard last week and stopped Shady McCoy. We can probably go ahead and throw regular season numbers right in the trash at this point.

You can throw those numbers in the trash as well. It was against the Eagles. The Eagles padded their stats against horrific teams ie. McCoy's big rushing days came against Washington, GB, Detriot, Dallas, Chicago, and KC.

None of those proved to be elite defenses. 7 times he reached 100 yards rushing in 16 games. Futhermore the Eagles Defense was weak.

So I think the Saints performance last week is irrelevant to this week. After watching that game and seeing that Philly nearly won, I think the Seahawks should handle them unless we turn the ball over numerous times and have punts blocked.