An "outside the box" approach to the Wilson contract

[Tical21]

Torn ACL? Subpar play? Concussions? Broken back? .

Do these things happen? If the answer is yes then revisit the post about guaranteed vs non-guaranteed doesn't matter at all

If I offered you $100 million - 100% guaranteed once you sign

or $103 million 99% guaranteed once you sign

Which do you pick?

Now put into context that you play in a sport where people get paid to hit you. and if really unlucky that one hit means that you don't get paid then maybe the percentage starts moving to 90%-95% guaranteed and the dollar number would move up to $105-$110million

I pick the $100 million without any hesitation

Yes, these things happen all the time, and it has proven over and over again that there are zero consequences. If ANY of those things happen to him, Seattle will not release him, and he still gets all of his money. Any other position, of course, but not a franchise QB. If you would take the guaranteed money over the full amount, you're just throwing money away. It is that black and white. Your theory is very sound and is thought for years to hold lots of water, but in reality, it just isn't what happens.

 

[Optimus25]

My guess is that any deal still has 2015 with a relatively low cap number. I think the out of the box thinking has to do with guaranteeing base salaries with a minimal (relatively) prorated signing bonus to give the Seahawks flexibility to surround Wilson with talent.

RW is smart enough to realize that his off the field endorsements are limitless if the Seahawks are perennial SB contenders. Manning and Brady are at the end of their careers and no offense to Andrew Luck but he's a bigger doofus than Peyton in terms of being an advertising star. Basically it's RW and Aaron Rodgers as the new pitchman. Only works if you are a great player on a winning team.

this is an excellent synopsis of my perspective.

we all know russell is a cavalier and caring dude. therefore he shouldn't be a money monger. of course everyone wants their due, but at what point is there no further life enjoyment in gold plated trim on your platinum ice cream scoopers? i believe his agent, who probably knows russ's character, may be pining for a big cut of the pie to feed himself, and therefore is putting all kinds of thoughts in his head along the lines of "imagine all the charitable foundations you could build". whereas, if russ just asked PA to build those particular foundations at his beck and call and ultimately took less contract dough for the team, i think it would happen at a drop of a hat.

i live in a Christian, some would say naive world where if Russ's contract makes dramatic headlines for its $$$ size rather than simply the fact it happened at all, i will be actually disappointed. even though i know he deserves the big $$$size, and he knows too, he HAS to understand the implications Jesus stated in Mark 10:25. Use the money to secure your future, provide safety to your future family, and bring blessings to those around you. But if Russell Wilson chooses to go after money for personal pleasures and basic want, it will poison his heart.

Hopefully he has a Bible study or two prior to negotiations. We would be wise to buy billboard space near his home, and simply put up 1 Timothy 6:10.

or to take another route---hopefully russell can see what rodgers' contract did to the packers. their defense has been completely spotty since. o line completely unreliable. would rodgers trade places with the himself of the past and trim that way down if he could have won one of the last 2 super bowls?, which anyone has to admit, this year they were short only 1 piece to have a TREMENDOUS shot. i would say given that choice, rodgers would do it. but sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees, and sometimes when you know you're THE star of a franchise, you gotta lock down yours because you can't predict the future of the organization, and if they're going down, at least you got yours.

are you telling my state farm alone isn't paying enough for a rich rich RICH man to live on? someone reel me in cause i just don't get why some stars don't get it. success=revenues. have yet to see a jaguars jersey worn on a person in my presence. ever. why not lock in your future with a little guaranteed money, and then play hungry again? hell, just the notoriety of signing for less will boost publicity which will boost endorsements.

 

[Scottemojo]

Maybe someday one of the QB's is going to get cut, but it sure as heck isn't going to be Russell Wilson. oKaepernick will see every single penny of that contract, just like all the other QB's do. Is there ANY scenario, sans a career ending injury, where Russell Wilson gets cut in the next 5-6 years? Torn ACL? Subpar play? Concussions? Broken back? And I'm the one with a complete lack of understanding about the NFL.

I don't know about the rest, but no way does Kaepernick see every penny of his deal. He already lost 2 mil off the top of this year because of not making an incentive benchmark.

 

[Tical21]

Maybe someday one of the QB's is going to get cut, but it sure as heck isn't going to be Russell Wilson. oKaepernick will see every single penny of that contract, just like all the other QB's do. Is there ANY scenario, sans a career ending injury, where Russell Wilson gets cut in the next 5-6 years? Torn ACL? Subpar play? Concussions? Broken back? And I'm the one with a complete lack of understanding about the NFL.

I don't know about the rest, but no way does Kaepernick see every penny of his deal. He already lost 2 mil off the top of this year because of not making an incentive benchmark.

Penny schmenny. Okay, most pennies! I wasn't aware these were included in the salary. I may have to find a way to remove my foot from my piehole. He's actually the one case that worries me, but I still can't see a scenario in the next few years where they try a different route.

 

[Scottemojo]

Maybe someday one of the QB's is going to get cut, but it sure as heck isn't going to be Russell Wilson. oKaepernick will see every single penny of that contract, just like all the other QB's do. Is there ANY scenario, sans a career ending injury, where Russell Wilson gets cut in the next 5-6 years? Torn ACL? Subpar play? Concussions? Broken back? And I'm the one with a complete lack of understanding about the NFL.

I don't know about the rest, but no way does Kaepernick see every penny of his deal. He already lost 2 mil off the top of this year because of not making an incentive benchmark.

Penny schmenny. Okay, most pennies! I wasn't aware these were included in the salary. I may have to find a way to remove my foot from my piehole. He's actually the one case that worries me, but I still can't see a scenario in the next few years where they try a different route.

That is why he got so much criticism for his deal. He tied huge chunks of money to being named all pro, stuff like that.

It is true that QBs make most of their incentives, if they even have them, most have roster bonuses instead. So you are mostly right.

Except I think there is a very real chance Kaep doesn't see the end of his deal, unless traded.

 

[hawksurething]

I think he was being sarcastic. No way we get Suh and Maxie is a long shot.

Maxie will get his. All about the second contract in this CBA.

Suh would make it rough for 2015 but impossible in 2016 once other contracts start "blooming". It would cost us Irvin and others and I don't think anyone wants to lose our depth or mid level players for one big DT no matter how good he is.

I think its funny when people say that we wont get player a or b because the salary cap wont let us all the while assuming they know what kind of money we will pay Wilson and our other free agents. What if Wilsons contract doesnt live up to expectations and we have more money to spend? Why are people acting like 10 and 20 million are the exact same?

If you think RW will sign for 10m/yr, you're out of your mind. He would have to accept 10m/yr for us to be able to afford Suh and even then, in 2016 it would likely mean we lose out of players like Irvin due to the ballooning of the contract and if you read between the lines with JS, you understand he's not interested in going outside to make a big splash, he'd rather pay his own.

If you pay attention to what the Seattle salary cap experts and pundits have been saying, these things are highly unlikely. Also the players union will not allow RW to take far less than previous precedents dictate because it affects everyone else as well.

RW may or may not take less, perhaps it's more guaranteed or more based on performance escalators or incentives. We don't know that.

The salary cap is a finite resource and a lot of the money is already spent and is untouchable based on IR, existing contracts, practice squad players, dead money, in season replacement player costs, etc. These things are not unknowns, John knows exactly how much he has to work with based on his 1-3 year projections.

There is an order to this and it's easy to understand if you pay attention. We've had JS/PC around for a while now and you can see the writing on the wall and what appetite they have for certain types of transactions or risk and which ones they don't. You can totally anticipate these moves based on previous deals and how they've written them.

I can tell you with a high degree of confidence RW will get somewhere between 18-22m. Wagner will get around 9m/yr. Maxie will get probably 6.5-7m a year somewhere else, likely Jacksonville or Atlanta. Lynch will probably get a 2 year new deal with 1 yr gteed with the second not gteed. First year will probably be like 10m with signing bonus prorated.

People take contracts based on contemporaries previous contracts. Also as our salary cap and revenue has increased, so will top end salaries. These things are quantifiable and they are the justifications for contract negotiations. They are known and can be used to accurately project players earnings.

But he's not taking less money if it's all guaranteed. $100 million guaranteed is $100 million, regardless of how many years it's spread across. And the guaranteed money is all most NFL players ever get anyway before they are restructured or cut. If Russell signs the hypothetical 10/100 fully guaranteed deal it would be the most lucrative in NFL history in terms of actual money paid by a long shot. Aaron Rodgers has the highest fully unconditional guarantee in NFL history at $54 million, on a 5/110 contract. There is no way ARod sees all $110 million of that deal before it is restructured. The actual money paid will be a lot closer to the guarantee than the full value of the contract. The team will make sure of that. Russell's proposed 10/100 'baseball' contract would almost double the money ARod will actually get paid. The player's union couldn't possibly have a problem with that.

The reason teams don't do long-term, cap-friendly, fully guaranteed 'baseball' contracts is they lose all power to restructure or cut a player as production declines later in the deal. The trade off, of course, is a much bigger salary cap hit over a shorter term deal. But if a teams knows they have a player that will be franchise cornerstone for a decade whom they won't ever need to restructure or cut, why not make his decade-long tenure as cap friendly as possible by fully guaranteeing his deal? Providing Russell is willing to spread his money out over a longer time frame, knowing he will get all of it eventually, then from the team's perspective they have traded long term cap relief for assuming the risk that Russell will be consistently productive over the life of the deal. As long as the team feels like that is an assumable risk, why not do it?

From Wilson's perspective, he has incentive to structure a deal like this. He is smart enough to realize his bread has been buttered thus far on the side of endorsements and branding made possible by being the charismatic QB of a winning, championship team. Regardless of his contract structure, he will get handsomely paid. So why cripple the winning potential of his team - thereby weakening his personal brand - for the sake of getting more of his money up front and blowing up the cap when he can actually get paid more money from the team long-term AND maximize the winning potential of his team, which equates to maximizing his personal brand?

Russell can go ahead an sign an Aaron Rodgers deal, and likely never win another Super Bowl as the championship team around him can not be retained. Or he can spread a higher guaranteed amount over a much longer time-frame and make a run at winning numerous rings, in the process becoming one of the most marketable sports celebrities ever.

Great post ! I was looking at a 1 year 15 mill contract this year,then a huge 10 year 100 mill next year. Or just keep his rookie contract and give him big bonuses up front if that is even possible ?

Schneider is a genius I'm sure him and Wilson find a way yoy surround him with pro bowl talent so he won't regress.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

Hate to break this to everyone, but Danny Kelly from Field Gulls says he was drinking with Prisco after a day at the combine and Prisco said: "Russell Wilson is like the Mona Lisa - Overrated" Now that we have that info, I say let him play out his contract and walk away. PC and JS will just plug in another QB. This time a 'traditional pocket passer' like Taaaaaaaahm Braaaaaady or Paaaayton Maaaaaaaning. [emoji13]