An "outside the box" approach to the Wilson contract

[bbsplitter]

As long as we pay for soda in the vending machine, RW don't care. Oh wait. That was moneyball.

 

[Hyak]

For everyone throwing out numbers, remember that signing bonuses can only be prorated over a maximum of 5 years.

My guess is that he'll get a SB of $ 20 M - $ 30 M, a relatively low base salary for 2015, and perhaps a few years of guaranteed base salaries where his cap number goes up in 2016 and beyond.

 

[mikeak]

Here is my issue with this.

If you backload the contract and make lower guaranteed money then Seattle can cut RW towards the end and not pay that money if he doesn't deliver.

I would understand HIGHER guaranteed money with more backloaded.

Like really creative is not a lot guaranteed the first 2-3 years with lots guaranteed year 4-6. That means you don't cut him early since you can't afford the guaranteed at the end.......

It's basically unheard of to cut a good starting QB because he makes too much in a given year. And if that last year or two is too painful for whatever reason, they could probably trade him without any difficulty, or rework his deal in a new contract extension.

Yes but your proposal puts the the risk on RW plus the risk of injury. There is no way it will be backloaded with low guarantee.

High guarantee and backloaded guaranteed yes. That could help both parties instead of either or

 

[mikeak]

For everyone throwing out numbers, remember that signing bonuses can only be prorated over a maximum of 5 years.

My guess is that he'll get a SB of $ 20 M - $ 30 M, a relatively low base salary for 2015, and perhaps a few years of guaranteed base salaries where his cap number goes up in 2016 and beyond.

I thought signing bonuses could roll over 6 years, you get the initial year of the signing +5????

Five years

http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-fo ... er_share=1

For the other post. It will be an extension so base salary next year will be the $800k or so RW would have earned

My guess. $15M / year. 5 year extension. $50M guaranteed $60M guaranteed for injury

 

[bbsplitter]

Help me understand here. So let's say for the sake of example you have a 1 year contract. The terms of the contract are 20mil base salary, 5 million dollar signing bonus. When people say "guaranteed money", are they only talking about the signing bonus? Or is more of the contract guaranteed then that? What would be the total cap hit of that contract? When you guys are saying like 5 years at 125 million, 60 million guaranteed, is that signing bonus part of that 60 million? Or on top of it?

 

[mikeak]

Signing bonus is part of total contract.
Guaranteed money is signing bonus PLUS other money designated as guaranteed.

Example. RW has one year left. Let's just say he makes $1M next year per original contract. Now play numbers for example.

He gets a five year extension $100M, $20M signing bonus $50M guaranteed (remember using easy numbers to explain something)

Next year cap number - $1Million base salary plus one gift of signing bonus so $20/5=$4milliin. Total cap hit 4+1=5

$20 million signing bonus but $50million guaranteed. That difference of $30M can be anywhere the contract will stipulate. It could be spread on all years, all of it in first few years - you don't know. Either way guaranteed is signing bonus plus anything else stated to be earned.

Makes sense?

 

[edogg23]

I think it will be 5 year extension 60 million signing bonus 5 million a year base salary all garunteed. There would be incentive for rw cause of the huge upfront cash and the Seahawks would take a 17 mil a year cap hit instead of the projected 23 mil a year for market value.

 

[BocciHawk]

Any signing bonus only goes over the length of the contract OR five years, whichever is shorter, for cap purposes.

 

[Dang3Russ]

No QB1 other than RW3 in this city ...

 

[NFSeahawks]

But you guys all told me pay him whatever he wants, and then give him more.

Smart move JS, I love smart people, especially when they run the team I cheer for.

 

[plyka]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/10/schneider-hints-at-outside-the-box-approach-to-wilson-contract/

Interesting.

I've been saying for a while now that the smartest thing for Wilson (and the Seahawks) to do if he really wants to keep a good team around him is to give him a fully guaranteed contract with a good chunk up front, for overall less money than other contracts are worth.

Of course everyone said I was crazy and it would never happen but ....

Wilson is smart and knows he's going to be set for life regardless. If he takes less 'overall' money but gets more up front and more guaranteed, he can begin investing that money wisely now while he's too busy playing football to spend it anyways, and in doing so will probably end up with more money in the long run anyways.

I agree with the article. I'm not a pro on the Salary cap, but why couldn't they give him a $105m 7 year contract fully guaranteed and all in a bonus? If I was Wilson I would rather take $105m up front than 150 million over 7 years and it's not even close. The reason is because $105m is worth the same as $150m over 7 years. I haven't done the calculation, but the present value of $150m over 7 years is probably close to $105m depending on the interest and risk variables you use.

 

[Tical21]

This outside the box stuff is getting a little ridiculous. Listen to Kearly. Guaranteed or non-guaranteed matters none! He is going to see very penny. Then, when his deal is getting a bit closer to ending, they're going to extend him and he's going to see every penny again. 150 million with 105 guaranteed is the same thing as 150 guaranteed. QB's don't get career ending injuries anymore. You're not going to cut Russell Wilson at any point, so the guaranteed part is absolutely meaningless. You can pay more in the front or more in the back if you want to, but he's going to see every penny. You tier the contract a little bit because of the cap increase, but every dollar you push to the back now is just going to hurt you later. This is a simple fact, and there is no "outside the box" way to get around it.

 

[Tical21]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/10/schneider-hints-at-outside-the-box-approach-to-wilson-contract/

Interesting.

I've been saying for a while now that the smartest thing for Wilson (and the Seahawks) to do if he really wants to keep a good team around him is to give him a fully guaranteed contract with a good chunk up front, for overall less money than other contracts are worth.

Of course everyone said I was crazy and it would never happen but ....

Wilson is smart and knows he's going to be set for life regardless. If he takes less 'overall' money but gets more up front and more guaranteed, he can begin investing that money wisely now while he's too busy playing football to spend it anyways, and in doing so will probably end up with more money in the long run anyways.

I agree with the article. I'm not a pro on the Salary cap, but why couldn't they give him a $105m 7 year contract fully guaranteed and all in a bonus? If I was Wilson I would rather take $105m up front than 150 million over 7 years and it's not even close. The reason is because $105m is worth the same as $150m over 7 years. I haven't done the calculation, but the present value of $150m over 7 years is probably close to $105m depending on the interest and risk variables you use.

I can't see Paul Allen handing Russell Wilson a check for 105 million dollars, rich as he may be.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

And I look at it like this, They just got 3 years for next to nothing, and look what he produced. Whatever he gets, it's retro pay for 3 incredible seasons as well.

 

[mikeak]

This outside the box stuff is getting a little ridiculous. Listen to Kearly. Guaranteed or non-guaranteed matters none! He is going to see very penny. Then, when his deal is getting a bit closer to ending, they're going to extend him and he's going to see every penny again. 150 million with 105 guaranteed is the same thing as 150 guaranteed. QB's don't get career ending injuries anymore. You're not going to cut Russell Wilson at any point, so the guaranteed part is absolutely meaningless. You can pay more in the front or more in the back if you want to, but he's going to see every penny. You tier the contract a little bit because of the cap increase, but every dollar you push to the back now is just going to hurt you later. This is a simple fact, and there is no "outside the box" way to get around it.

Sorry just to simple of a way to see it.

Severe injuries happen. Concussions happen. A horrible season or two happens.

Why would any QB accept that risk when others will offer way more.

Also lets say I am wrong and you are right. IF you guarantee more then the overall price comes down. So if you are going to give him every penny why not guarantee more and pay less overall????

For the person saying $105 guaranteed. He doesn't get that up front. It would kill you salary cap wise so you can't factor in time value of money

Now here is a real thing that they can play with. NFL players are taxed based on where they play. So if they earn $500k per game they would pay income tax when playing away games if that state has income tax.

So there is a very real value to the player in increasing the signing bonus and decreasing the annual salary.

 

[Tical21]

This outside the box stuff is getting a little ridiculous. Listen to Kearly. Guaranteed or non-guaranteed matters none! He is going to see very penny. Then, when his deal is getting a bit closer to ending, they're going to extend him and he's going to see every penny again. 150 million with 105 guaranteed is the same thing as 150 guaranteed. QB's don't get career ending injuries anymore. You're not going to cut Russell Wilson at any point, so the guaranteed part is absolutely meaningless. You can pay more in the front or more in the back if you want to, but he's going to see every penny. You tier the contract a little bit because of the cap increase, but every dollar you push to the back now is just going to hurt you later. This is a simple fact, and there is no "outside the box" way to get around it.

Sorry just to simple of a way to see it.

Severe injuries happen. Concussions happen. A horrible season or two happens.

Why would any QB accept that risk when others will offer way more.

Also lets say I am wrong and you are right. IF you guarantee more then the overall price comes down. So if you are going to give him every penny why not guarantee more and pay less overall????

For the person saying $105 guaranteed. He doesn't get that up front. It would kill you salary cap wise so you can't factor in time value of money

Now here is a real thing that they can play with. NFL players are taxed based on where they play. So if they earn $500k per game they would pay income tax when playing away games if that state has income tax.

So there is a very real value to the player in increasing the signing bonus and decreasing the annual salary.

Peyton Manning is the one and only franchise QB in the last 25 years to be let go because of a significant injury. ACL? Nope, see Brady and Palmer. Concussion? Nope. Not even a broken back.

Guaranteed money matters zero to Wilson. You can offer him 150 million with 5 million guaranteed, or you can offer him 150 million with 100 million guaranteed. Either way, he is going to get 150 million, every penny.

For the record, paying $105 as a signing bonus wouldn't do all that much to your cap that a normal contract would do, except that you would lose some of the ability to front or backload the contract as the cap hit would have to be spread equally.

 

[mikeak]

This is a joke right? Making a statement that guaranteed money doesn't matter is just funny. It shows a complete lack of understanding in regards to the NFL. Saying that franchise qb's haven't been cut is all great until one has 3 bad years and does get cut and have a few millions in the bank instead of a hundred million.

Guaranteed money matters. It also says that the team believes in you. Look at Kaepernick - less guaranteed wonder why....

You can go to guaranteed for injury only but there will be a large chunk guaranteed

 

[Tical21]

Maybe someday one of the QB's is going to get cut, but it sure as heck isn't going to be Russell Wilson. oKaepernick will see every single penny of that contract, just like all the other QB's do. Is there ANY scenario, sans a career ending injury, where Russell Wilson gets cut in the next 5-6 years? Torn ACL? Subpar play? Concussions? Broken back? And I'm the one with a complete lack of understanding about the NFL.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

This is a joke right? Making a statement that guaranteed money doesn't matter is just funny. It shows a complete lack of understanding in regards to the NFL. Saying that franchise qb's haven't been cut is all great until one has 3 bad years and does get cut and have a few millions in the bank instead of a hundred million.

Guaranteed money matters. It also says that the team believes in you. Look at Kaepernick - less guaranteed wonder why....

You can go to guaranteed for injury only but there will be a large chunk guaranteed

Yep.

I have no problem with guaranteeing as much of Russell's contract as we can, because that means a lower per year average..........and thus a lower cap hit.

This is not Kaeperstink, RG3, Dalton, Romo or any other unproven non-SB winner. Wilson's been a winner all his life, all the dude does is work, get better and win.

 

[mikeak]

Torn ACL? Subpar play? Concussions? Broken back? .

Do these things happen? If the answer is yes then revisit the post about guaranteed vs non-guaranteed doesn't matter at all

If I offered you $100 million - 100% guaranteed once you sign

or $103 million 99% guaranteed once you sign

Which do you pick?

Now put into context that you play in a sport where people get paid to hit you. and if really unlucky that one hit means that you don't get paid then maybe the percentage starts moving to 90%-95% guaranteed and the dollar number would move up to $105-$110million

I pick the $100 million without any hesitation