Are the Seahawks capped out for 2024?

[RiverDog]

I saw at least 3 overthrows last week

He had 9 targets and 3 completions last week, so even if we accept your assertation that there were 3 overthrows, that still leaves 6 incompletions and a 2:1 target to catch ratio, worst in the league.

It's more than just Geno and bad quarterbacking. He's a very limited route runner with his long suit being the straight fly route up the sidelines, a very low percentage pass.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

That's a fair opinion, but I think you're selling DK quite short. Just my opinion. And it's shared by guys like KJ, Brock and Wyman.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

Honestly, I wonder if the most optimal approach is to not even field a roster. Then people who label themselves "optimists" can enter a euphoric mini-coma thinking about all the possibilities of what the team can do with that cap space (never mind what is or isn't actually happening with the team). On the flip side, the "realists" who kinda want to focus on the doom and gloom will have a field day on how it will be literally impossible for the team to win a game. It's the best of both worlds, guys!

 

[flv2]

What is the cap hit if they release Jones next year? Just curious. Any dead money? I just don't follow cap stuff.

Jones was paid a $20M signing bonus as part of his 3 year contract. A $6.666M pro rata 1/3rd of that is being accounted for in 2023 and another 1/3rd will be accounted for in 2024. The remaining 1/3rd is scheduled to be accounted for in 2025 but this will accelerate into the 2024 cap instead if he is released before June 1 2024. My interpretation of the contract details on Spotrac is that most of the $11.5M he is due in 2024 will become guaranteed in February. This is before the new NFL year begins in March and it would remove the possibility of designating him as a June 1 cap cut. The $23.5M assigned up front is gone. Money paid will have to be accounted for and the 'when' doesn't make a big difference. He's not worth the average contact value so far in 2023, but that's not the issue. The key question is whether he is worth keeping at the $11.5M he is due next season.

 

[RiverDog]

That's a fair opinion, but I think you're selling DK quite short. Just my opinion. And it's shared by guys like KJ, Brock and Wyman.

Selling him short? My argument is that he's not a top 10 receiver. Take a look at the following names and tell me which one you would take Metcalf over: Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja Marr Chase, Devonte Adams, Jalen Waddle, even our own Tyler Lockett. That's 11 names just off the top of my head.

Secondly, he's not producing. We can argue about the reasons, but the fact is that he only catches a little more than half of the passes thrown his direction, his total receiving yardage ranks him 28th in the league, and he's hit paydirt just 3 times in 10 games. That's not going to cut it.

Then you toss in the intangibles, like his penalties, his open defiance, and his thin skin. He doesn't appear to me to be coachable. Metcalf reminds me too much of Percy Harvin.

Unless we're going to completely blow up this team and start over, I don't think it wise that we consider trading Metcalf unless someone comes up with an offer that we can't refuse, ie a first rounder plus. As poorly as he's been producing, he's still a helluva threat, attracts a lot of attention from defenses, and has a huge ceiling.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Fair enough. Agree to disagree. I'm good with that.

 

[RiverDog]

I must be bored as I took the time to do a little homework. I looked at the top wide receivers by total yardage (I bumped Lockett up for the hell of it) and divided the number of receptions into the number of targets. As I suspected, Metcalf was the worst, beat out DeAndre Hopkins by .5% for the booby prize. Here's the results of my research:

Hill 72%
Allen 75.%
Lamb 75%
AJ Brown 70%
Moore 75%
St. Brown 75%
Diggs 69%
Nacua 66%
Chase 67%
Aiyuk 69%
Evans 59%
Adams 58%
Collins 68%
Pittman 68%
Olave 61%
Cooper 56%
Kirk 67%
DV Smith 72%
Thielen 77%
Dell 63%
Hopkins 54.22%
G. Wilson 57%
McLaurin 62%
Waddle 69%
Addison 66%
Lockett 68%
Metcalf 53.75%

 

[Maelstrom787]

I must be bored as I took the time to do a little homework. I looked at the top wide receivers by total yardage (I bumped Lockett up for the hell of it) and divided the number of receptions into the number of targets. As I suspected, Metcalf was the worst, beat out DeAndre Hopkins by .5% for the booby prize. Here's the results of my research:

Hill 72%
Allen 75.%
Lamb 75%
AJ Brown 70%
Moore 75%
St. Brown 75%
Diggs 69%
Nacua 66%
Chase 67%
Aiyuk 69%
Evans 59%
Adams 58%
Collins 68%
Pittman 68%
Olave 61%
Cooper 56%
Kirk 67%
DV Smith 72%
Thielen 77%
Dell 63%
Hopkins 54.22%
G. Wilson 57%
McLaurin 62%
Waddle 69%
Addison 66%
Lockett 68%
Metcalf 53.75%

This is how the catch rate statistic is measured. It's on PFR and other sites if you'd like to review.

Catch rate isn't a big deal if you're still producing overall, though. No one prioritizing catch rate would be looking for Metcalf's profile. 1100 yard pace, 8.5 yards per target, and rare ability to threaten with speed indicates a valuable player.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It's also not the first time we've seen a WR or TE be used incorrectly.

 

[RiverDog]

This is how the catch rate statistic is measured. It's on PFR and other sites if you'd like to review.

Catch rate isn't a big deal if you're still producing overall, though. No one prioritizing catch rate would be looking for Metcalf's profile. 1100 yard pace, 8.5 yards per target, and rare ability to threaten with speed indicates a valuable player.

The problem is that Metcalf IS NOT producing. There are 26 wide receivers who are on pace for 1100 yards. And for all that speed and threatening, he's scored just 3 touchdowns.

I'm also not impressed with 8.5 yards per target. Cristain Kirk, not thought of as an All Pro, has 9.1. Mike Evans, who's having a down year, has 9.3. The receivers that are actually producing, ie Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, all have over 10 yards per target, 1000+ receiving yards, and twice the TD's that Metcalf has.

But keep trying. If you try long enough, you'll come up with a stat to support your narrative.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

You're doing the exact same thing you're accusing him of. You've been on the anti-DK wagon all season. We get it already.

 

[flv2]

Targets don't mean a lot because of the way the NFL assigns them. Thus stats based on targets don't mean a lot either. Metcalf brings certain traits to the field. Many are good and some are bad. Clearly he's not having a great year and there are multiple reasons, (and threads), on why that is.

I don't think the 2023 Seahawks could be competitive with both him and Walker off the field, even with everyone else healthy, and i'm not a big fan of Walker.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The problem is that Metcalf IS NOT producing. There are 26 wide receivers who are on pace for 1100 yards. And for all that speed and threatening, he's scored just 3 touchdowns.

I'm also not impressed with 8.5 yards per target. Cristain Kirk, not thought of as an All Pro, has 9.1. Mike Evans, who's having a down year, has 9.3. The receivers that are actually producing, ie Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, all have over 10 yards per target, 1000+ receiving yards, and twice the TD's that Metcalf has.

But keep trying. If you try long enough, you'll come up with a stat to support your narrative.

You genuinely think playing at an 1100 yard pace, for an anemic passing offense, on a team with a second legit WR in Lockett is "not producing?" Do we watch the same league?

What the hell do you even look for in a receiver? If your expectations are so high that being on pace to generate a top-25 yardage total is "not producing," then the problem is that your expectations are not grounded in logic or reality.

Also, I'm not saying 8.5 is especially impressive for yards per target. I'm saying that it is a better indicator of overall efficiency than catch rate, which is a terrible stat to judge a receiver by. Ask perennially-low-catch-rate Calvin Johnson about that one.

We need to get clear about what we're talking about here. In no way is this a "very poor year," especially given the overall dysfunction of the offense around him. He isn't getting fed inordinately compared to other WR1's, and he's getting paid a commensurate salary to comparable receivers.

Yes, his catch rate is low. This is TO BE EXPECTED when he's got one of the highest yards per catch in the NFL for true WR1s. This indicates that his average catch is *deeper* than the vast majority of other players, and generally a drop in catch rate follows. You will find this to be true with the vast majority of DK-type receivers. I've given you two examples in Megatron and VJax. Deep threats have catch rates that suffer. Fact of life.

We're not living in the same reality if this is a "very poor year" and he "isn't producing." He's on pace to have the second highest yardage total of his NFL career!

Get mad and all, sure. DK can be better in some areas. But stay on planet Earth, dude. God damn.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The receivers that are actually producing, ie Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, all have over 10 yards per target, 1000+ receiving yards, and twice the TD's that Metcalf has.

Yeah, you see, this is what has you turned around. You apparently think that anything outside of being top 5 in most categories is "not producing." More black-and-white thinking. No room for nuance or rationality.

 

[Ozzy]

Part of the catch rate issue is we don’t run a west coast type of offense with a lot of high percentage throws. Geno has also missed DK a bunch of times this year too. Some of this is on DK too. All of it equals what we’re seeing

 

[RiverDog]

Yeah, you see, this is what has you turned around. You apparently think that anything outside of being top 5 in most categories is "not producing." More black-and-white thinking. No room for nuance or rationality.

Outside of the top 5 in most categories? Metcalf is outside of the top 25 in the triple crown categories for WR's: Receptions, Yards, and TD's.

But keep looking. There has to be a stat out there that will support your narrative.

 

[RiverDog]

Yeah, you see, this is what has you turned around. You apparently think that anything outside of being top 5 in most categories is "not producing." More black-and-white thinking. No room for nuance or rationality.

You keep putting words in my mouth. I never once said that the expectation was top 5.

Metcalf is outside the TOP 25 in the 3-triple crown for receivers' categories: Receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns. That's what I said.

 

[themunn]

Honestly, I wonder if the most optimal approach is to not even field a roster. Then people who label themselves "optimists" can enter a euphoric mini-coma thinking about all the possibilities of what the team can do with that cap space (never mind what is or isn't actually happening with the team). On the flip side, the "realists" who kinda want to focus on the doom and gloom will have a field day on how it will be literally impossible for the team to win a game. It's the best of both worlds, guys!

You are forgetting about all the dead cap we would have under that scenario.

BUT we would have really high draft picks!!

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Pete really thinks he's got the reincarnation of Earl and Kam in those two safeties with how much cap space they are taking up

I don't think Pete thinks this.

He thinks what everyone else thinks, he and John botched and whiffed at every safety they've tried to draft the past decade, and got stuck having to trade for expensive veterans, and then CONTINUED to not find new cheaper safeties.......and had to perpetuate said desperation by giving both Diggs and Adams new even more expensive contracts.

 

[Polk738]

I don't think Pete thinks this.

He thinks what everyone else thinks, he and John botched and whiffed at every safety they've tried to draft the past decade, and got stuck having to trade for expensive veterans, and then CONTINUED to not find new cheaper safeties.......and had to perpetuate said desperation by giving both Diggs and Adams new even more expensive contracts.

I'll agree with that, although I do have high hopes for Jerrick Reed from what I have seen from his special teams play this year.