Bevell's Last Play Call

[kearly]

I got the feeling they told Russ to keep it unless it was a sure thing. Kearse was wide open so he threw it to him. If kearse wasn't open he keeps it and it's the run play you wanted them to call. It was 2 yards or bust so a sack wouldn't have been a big deal.

That's obviously what happened. My issue is with the hidden risks and also with poor awareness of win probability. Kearse is known to drop the easy ones. Wilson had to throw on the run, maybe he misfires. Maybe Kearse never gets open and Wilson has a brain fart moment and throws the ball away from pure muscle memory. The Giants lost a game earlier this year because Eli Manning had that type of brain fart in a very similar situation. Maybe Wilson gets caught from behind and fumbles.

I just don't like the risk when the alternative is giving a terrible offense the ball at the 25 yard line with 40 seconds and no timeouts. That's probably around 5% win probability, whereas the same situation with 80 seconds left is probably around 25% win probability. I'm just guessing on those numbers but I think they are probably close. I don't think the downside of going from 95% win to 75% win on an incomplete pass is worth the upside of going from 95% win to 100% win on a completed pass. It was definitely a game situation that begged for a conservative call. I'm glad it worked out for us, but I don't think it was the smart move in that particular situation. I think if you simulate that situation a million times the run call wins more games.

 

[kearly]

Atlanta and Green Bay got FGs on us in less time than this.

Granted, they had timeouts and Detroit didn't, but ATL/GB were also coming off kickoffs. Coming off a punt from the SEA 28, Detroit would've been in great field position. The odds would've been against them, but they still would've had a shot, and they could conceivably get in range with just one pass. That's not a gamble I'd make with Calvin Johnson on the field.

On the other hand, converting the 3rd-and-2 ends the game without doubt. IMO, the right play is the one that gives you the highest odds of converting that 1st down. As long as Russell knows he can't attempt a low percentage pass, I don't see a downside that is more likely than Rawls fumbling the ball. All Russ has to do is avoid a mental breakdown like Eli.

Advanced NFL stats is overhauling their site right now so their win probability model is currently offline. However Brian Burke did say earlier today that Seattle had roughly a 90% win probability on 1st and 10 of that same series. With no mistakes made and the Lions getting the ball 40 yards away with 40 seconds to go and no timeouts, you'd probably be looking at something close to 10% WP at that point. And that's not even factoring the Lions offense (bad), it being a road game in a hostile environment, or the pass defense (elite). My guess is that if those aspects could somehow be factored, it would probably drop the 10% number further, maybe to 5%.

I'd feel extremely confident in that situation, versus being nervous as hell if they had 80 seconds.

 

[HomerJHawk]

Oh darn. Clickbait title.

I thought I was gonna read about Bevell leaving.

 

[Fade]

The way Bradford was moving the ball in the 4th quarter, I think they were looking to legitimately move the sticks so they could go into victory formation. Punting it back to them with only 30-50 yds needed for a tying FG and more than half a minute to do it seems the greater risk to me.

Bradford huh, interesting.

 

[Fade]

He put the ball in the hands of his best player... the opposite of what he did at the Super Bowl. If Lynch was in the backfield it would have been terrible.

I don't "love" the call, but atleast it showed he understood who should be making the last play

This. I couldn't say it any better.

I criticized Bevell on the previous 3rd and short when he put the ball in Rawls hands on a toss sweep, and he didn't get it. BECAUSE he didn't put the ball in RW's hands. I liked the last play only for that reason, but it was a gamble.

 

[peppersjap]

I was very worried about the play call and hoped they would give Wilson an option which they did. I just hope he was willing to take the sack instead of running out of bounds if something didn't open up. The way the game was going it was probably better to take a shot! We were in the "whatever can go wrong will" stage.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Up 10, D on point, 3rd down, game in hand........yeah, let's call a pass play.... :roll:

Run the ball, if you don't get it, punt the damn ball and play D. Make them do something they haven't done all day, EARN their 7 points. They had 3 points total on offense at that point. The only reason Detroit was in that game was that ridiculous call. And Russ does have to secure that ball in that situation. They always preach about it always being "about the ball." That's the only thing you need to be worrying about in that situation.

God forbid they actually block for the guy. I love Russ, but that fumble is on him, bad call or not.
He flat out owned up to it after the game. 1st one was a brutal snap, and he took blame.

 

[justafan]

Atlanta and Green Bay got FGs on us in less time than this.

Granted, they had timeouts and Detroit didn't, but ATL/GB were also coming off kickoffs. Coming off a punt from the SEA 28, Detroit would've been in great field position. The odds would've been against them, but they still would've had a shot, and they could conceivably get in range with just one pass. That's not a gamble I'd make with Calvin Johnson on the field.

On the other hand, converting the 3rd-and-2 ends the game without doubt. IMO, the right play is the one that gives you the highest odds of converting that 1st down. As long as Russell knows he can't attempt a low percentage pass, I don't see a downside that is more likely than Rawls fumbling the ball. All Russ has to do is avoid a mental breakdown like Eli.

Advanced NFL stats is overhauling their site right now so their win probability model is currently offline. However Brian Burke did say earlier today that Seattle had roughly a 90% win probability on 1st and 10 of that same series. With no mistakes made and the Lions getting the ball 40 yards away with 40 seconds to go and no timeouts, you'd probably be looking at something close to 10% WP at that point. And that's not even factoring the Lions offense (bad), it being a road game in a hostile environment, or the pass defense (elite). My guess is that if those aspects could somehow be factored, it would probably drop the 10% number further, maybe to 5%.

I'd feel extremely confident in that situation, versus being nervous as hell if they had 80 seconds.

I believe you are right on your probabilities and running the ball would be the safest bet.

The thought of Stafford,Johnson and Tate pulling something out scared the hell out of me.Ive seen this D look dominate until the last drive before.

In golf sometimes you have to make the smart move and take a double bogie out of play.A run probably would have done that but i did like the aggressiveness.

 

[sutz]

The way Bradford was moving the ball in the 4th quarter, I think they were looking to legitimately move the sticks so they could go into victory formation. Punting it back to them with only 30-50 yds needed for a tying FG and more than half a minute to do it seems the greater risk to me.

Bradford huh, interesting.

yeah, I missed on that one.

:laugh: The point stands, Detroit was moving the ball on us in the 4th.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

They barely had 160 yards when that fluke fumble recovery for a TD happened. They only moved the ball on the Hawks ONCE the entire game really.