Biggest mismatch in Super Bowl according to DVOA

[NorCalHawk12]

WOW!!!

Way to poop on our parade.

 

[Timberhawk]

What the **** is this heatequation guy talking about...?

I have no clue either, but I'm pretty sure he just got done working on his Flu Flux Capacitor and changing his blinker fluid...

 

[SonicHawk]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

You're a bad poster. I don't think you're stupid, or that you don't know football, I just think you don't like the Seahawks and you don't care about anything else besides proving to yourself that the Seahawks are going to lose.

The Seahawks are absolutely the best team in football. Doesn't mean they can't lose, doesn't mean they will win.

I doubt you'll be around long enough to eat crow come February 2nd, but I hope so.

 

[LTH]

I think the stats are interesting but they dont tell the whole story... true, the numbers dont lie but The reason the Seahawks are NFC Champions is because they defy logic with the will to win and compete... How do you messure that against a stat that says where they are offensively or defensively?

LTH

 

[LawlessHawk]

WOW!!!

Way to Brownian Motion on our parade.

Fify

 

[StorytellerMatt]

Actually, stats mean very little. My friend in Boston says the Pats will win. He says they will win because he's been "watching this team all season" and he "sees how dominant they are."

You heard it right there, Hawks fans. No repeat for us.

 

[hawkfan68]

If you believe in randomness, than maybe not. But as a master statistician, and scientist, you must be aware that randomness doesn't really exist. Therefore, you should be able replicate the same outcome, no?

What nonsense is this? Randomness exists. Microscopic phenomena in quantum mechanics is one example.

Why are you still here?...Your first sentence stated that 'These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it." Were you talking about yourself? Because the only one embarrassing themselves in this thread is you. Masochistic much?

Quit invading threads which you proclaim to have no interest in and spout drivel. This forum isn't driven by your agenda. If you don't like it....leave.

Please stop ruining threads for others.

 

[TDOTSEAHAWK]

Lolz to the heatequation getting the post count up.

If we can run successfully and stop their running game - I think we have a great chance.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

"I understand statistics better than you" might be the lamest most pathetic attempt to trash talk ever. I hope in 2 weeks we get to go Matt Damon from Good Will Hunting on his condescending butt.

 

[JustTheTip]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

No. There are other more appropriate methods to make predictions regarding the outcome of football games. Statistical analysis helps when you thousands of predictions over the course of the entire year. In the presence of statistical analysis, you're more likely to be correct in most of those games given that wins and offense/defense stats will converge to their expected value over the course of a season. In a one game showdown, they mean nothing, however.

You probably also think that Brownian Motion is good model for the evolution of stock prices.

Like ball pressure control?

 

[Smelly McUgly]

Seattle: first in toxic differential during the season. New England: fourteenth in toxic differential during the season. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

Seattle will hit more explosive plays than NE and will likely not have a five-turnover anomaly game yet again. More bad news for NE in trying to keep up with the fifth-ranked total offense by DVOA.

 

[The Great Hawktini]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

LOL, exactly. The people who don't believe in statistics are typically people who don't like what the statistics imply...

Absurd statement. I have a degree in mathematics. I very much believe in statistics (when applied correctly to fields such as physics, chemistry, biology, etc.) What I don't believe in is pseudo-science.

Well then Einstein put this in your pipe and take a pull, SEAHAWKS> NFL.

 

[JaiSeaSea]

Some of you totally let this dude hi-jack the thread.

AS far as OP.. I think this does factor in. They are ranked where they are for reasons. Couyld be skewed by where they were at in the game, playing from behind or ahead etc. etc. I still think Lynch will have a great day as long as we can strike early and complete a few passes to open things up for Wilson to scramble for a few 1st downs. Almost every game we win, Russell runs for a few and keeps the defense honest then lobs a few passes out for big gains..

I think it's Hawk's key to success.

 

[SeahawksBMX]

That is so awesome! As I was reading through this, I planned to post the exact pic, but wouldn't have had the 'Hawk logo in mine. This rules.

 

[ManBunts]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

I haven't read so many words that said absolutely nothing since I was forced to read Tess of the D'Urbevilles in high school and I HATED that book. For all your ranting, you made exactly no comment on the actual subject, just criticized the use of statistics by "people" and subjected us to what really amounts to a nerdy tantrum.

Unfortunately for you, statistics is defined as the study, collection, interpretation, presentation and organization of data. Thus, I give you, data as accrued throughout a season of football played by 32 teams each with a 53 man starting roster where all play must fall within controlled parameters as set by the NFL Competition Committee. Any variety in the resultant outcome of the plays would be due to variables in the application of the rules and the players' abilities.

In short, it'd be great if people stopped saying stupid things, but that clearly isn't going to happen any time soon.

You're clearly one of those who has never stepped foot into an advanced statistics course.

Any model, irrespective of how good or realistic, requires quality data to be fed into it. For data to be of high quality, you need multiple samples of sufficient size, and you need to be able to replicated each sample in a controlled environment. You can't take an NFL game and replicate the same outcome and then extrapolate anything meaningful from that.

Honestly I can say I haven't taken an advanced stats class. Never interested me. However, it's quite possible I set foot in a room once or twice though. I believe some of my engineering courses shared the same room as one in college. But I have played football. I understand fairly well the controls in place with the standards for fields, balls, uniforms, and rules of play. Now, feel free to talk football, and football STATISTICS, with the known factor that this is, again, FOOTBALL, and wonderfully, magnificently, amazingly, stuff happens that is completely aberrant and impossible to quantify. Or, as those of us only barely intelligent folk like to say, "S**t happens". (Sorry mods, but I feel like i'm talking to a 49er fan, it's infuriating)

 

[ManBunts]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

I haven't read so many words that said absolutely nothing since I was forced to read Tess of the D'Urbevilles in high school and I HATED that book. For all your ranting, you made exactly no comment on the actual subject, just criticized the use of statistics by "people" and subjected us to what really amounts to a nerdy tantrum.

Unfortunately for you, statistics is defined as the study, collection, interpretation, presentation and organization of data. Thus, I give you, data as accrued throughout a season of football played by 32 teams each with a 53 man starting roster where all play must fall within controlled parameters as set by the NFL Competition Committee. Any variety in the resultant outcome of the plays would be due to variables in the application of the rules and the players' abilities.

In short, it'd be great if people stopped saying stupid things, but that clearly isn't going to happen any time soon.

Bahaha! Yes! Should we ever cross paths in the real world, first beer is on me.

Also, doesn't that guy look kinda like Clay Mathews?

 

[cdallan]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

I haven't read so many words that said absolutely nothing since I was forced to read Tess of the D'Urbevilles in high school and I HATED that book. For all your ranting, you made exactly no comment on the actual subject, just criticized the use of statistics by "people" and subjected us to what really amounts to a nerdy tantrum.

Unfortunately for you, statistics is defined as the study, collection, interpretation, presentation and organization of data. Thus, I give you, data as accrued throughout a season of football played by 32 teams each wit

h a 53 man starting roster where all play must fall within controlled parameters as set by the NFL Competition Committee. Any variety in the resultant outcome of the plays would be due to variables in the application of the rules and the players' abilities.

In short, it'd be great if people stopped saying stupid things, but that clearly isn't going to happen any time soon.

You're clearly one of those who has never stepped foot into an advanced statistics course.

Any model, irrespective of how good or realistic, requires quality data to be fed into it. For data to be of high quality, you need multiple samples of sufficient size, and you need to be able to replicated each sample in a controlled environment. You can't take an NFL game and replicate the same outcome and then extrapolate anything meaningful from that.

This is a very interesting point. The sample size of an NFL season is too small to derive any predictive meaning from past results. Seattle has only taken part in 2,400 plays or something. You can't take anything from that.

However, it also means you haven't seen enough plays to make any subjective judgments as to the merits of the 2 teams. Conclusion - we will have to stop talking about the next game as we can't make any informed judgment on it.

I kind of thought this guy was a wanker, but he's only made 89 posts so I can't tell from that sample size.

 

[hawknation2015]

Despite having a defensive background, it's been a while since Bill Belichick has coached an "elite" defense (by which I mean Top 3 in points or total defense). The closest he came was their 16-0 team in 2007. Since then, they have been pretty average.

Patriots' Total defense:
2014: 13th (344 yards/game)
2013: 26th (373 yards/game)
2012: 25th (373 yards/game)
2011: 31st (411 yards/game)
2010: 25th (366 yards/game)
2009: 11th (320 yards/game)
2008: 10th (309 yards/game)
2007: 4th (288 yards/game)
2006: 6th (294 yards/game)
2005: 26th (330 yards/game)
2004: 9th (310 yards/game)
2003: 7th (292 yards/game)
2002: 23rd (336 yards/game)
2001: 24th (334 yards/game)
2000: 20th (335 yards/game)

It's interesting to me that the biggest improvement they made from last season was in rush defense. In 2013, they were allowing 134 rushing yards per game (30th in the league). This year, they improved to 9th in the league, allowing just 104 yards per game. They have also allowed just six total rushing TDs -- 2nd only to Kansas City.

And they made this improvement without MLB Jerod Mayo, who had to be placed on IR. Imagine our run defense without Bobby Wagner . . . or just watch the Kansas City game. One way they seem to have made this improvement in their run defense is by pairing Vince Wilfork with Sealver Siliga, which is basically like having two gap-clogging NTs in your interior.

Baltimore's phenomenal running game did have success against the Patriots with Justin Forsett cruising for 129 yards but no rushing TDs. We're going to need to get creative in the red zone, as New England only allows a TD about 52% of the time.

 

[Hawks46]

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Thing is, your entire argument against these "stats' is flawed, and for the very reasons you espouse in your argument. These stats DO have context, the entire metric system of Football Outsiders is based upon context and game situations. For example, they don't count throw aways as incompletions for a QB. They also weight metrics due to oppenent strength. Completing a pass against Seattle is statistically, and realistically a lot more difficult than completing a pass against Jacksonville.

The other flaw here is that the overall metrics do account for the entire season, but they also do a weekly DVOA, and weight it per opponent. So the fan argument is usually "well we were crap at the beginning of the season, but we're playing well now". Which is GB's case was definately true. They measure this and document it.

Also, you most likely are arguing here out of emotion and not logic. Emotional NE fans have all season proclaimed "we have the best secondary in the NFL" I've even heard the best defense from them. Statistically, metric(ally), and via the eyeball test, this is absurd and has been proven to not be true. But fans don't want to hear that.

Your statement"These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it" proves it's more of a emotional argument. After all, NE's secondary has Pro Bowlers and two of the best CBs in the league, so how can our passing be a str vs. weakness right ? Thing is, NE allows a LOT of long pass plays, they are in the bottom third of the NFL in this category. Call it season long, etc. but Baltimore gashed you with it. And hey, the Seahawks passing offense is horrific, just look at last game right ? Seahawks are near the top of the league in explosive pass plays. THere you go, strength vs. weakness that almost no fans would acknowledge.

 

[RolandDeschain]

There are other more appropriate methods to make predictions regarding the outcome of football games.

Like ball pressure control?

Time of possession! :lol: