Canfora reporting Payton wants to move on from ME3

[SNDavidson]

I feel Russ could be plugged-in to a run/shoot offense with everything else already there, it just illustrates how many things have to be right with both parties for a player to boom or bust at the position.

I'd guess he lost his way a bit with distraction, but he also will still work very hard at his craft and does still have talent, it's in there still.

Russ needs the right system, not because he needs to be the man, but because that's the only way he works, he could be good, he could be resurrected if done thoughtfully. Odds of it happening, not sure if great, but there are some very smart people and coaches in the league.

 

[RiverDog]

I checked 2019 redzone conversion & Seattle was ranked 5th best TD percentage,3rd best TDs, & 6th in Redzone attempts He didn't have a very good completion percentage but they still scored on the drive. So the 49.4% is very misleading stat.

In 2018, Seattle was 10th in Redzone attempts. 9th in TDs, & 6th in TD%.

Just a note this year, his redzone completion percentage is 4th best 68.3%, 3rd most completions, he is number 1 in TDs w/ 0INT

It doesn't support the narrative that we had a "terrible" running game, now does it?

 

[RiverDog]

I feel Russ could be plugged-in to a run/shoot offense with everything else already there, it just illustrates how many things have to be right with both parties for a player to boom or bust at the position.

I'd guess he lost his way a bit with distraction, but he also will still work very hard at his craft and does still have talent, it's in there still.

Russ needs the right system, not because he needs to be the man, but because that's the only way he works, he could be good, he could be resurrected if done thoughtfully. Odds of it happening, not sure if great, but there are some very smart people and coaches in the league.

I think that's a fair take. But the other part of that equation of being in the right system is that Russell has to be willing to adapt to it. No more of this "Let Russ Cook" nonsense. He needed to be humbled.

 

[keasley45]

If his last 4-5 seasons weren't good in your opinion then I'm going to have a hard time with anyone trying to tell me Geno is good now then because Wilson was much better and we had massive problems with the offensive line, a couple of years with a historically bad running game and a defense that was terrible. It was a miracle we were able to get to the playoffs in my opinion a few of those years and it was mostly Wilson and Carroll being great at what they do that lead to that.

But to your first point I do think its a valid and reasonable argument.

Here is Wilsons stats including the last 5 years with Seattle. I would argue that is pretty damn good especially considering the problems we had. This doesn't include rushing stats either. Geno isn't on pace to even come close to any of those years and that's with a MUCH BETTER supporting cast.

View attachment 61540

I dont understand how you can say we had terrible rushing attacks. That's complete revisionist history. We had down years in 16 and 17 because of injury.

In 15, we were 3rd
18, 1st
19, 6th
20, 12th, despite not running and Russ 'cooking'
21, 9th again, despite not running.

And the '20 was lost in large part because we abandoned the run game often.

Had we run the ball with the balance we pretty much maintained from the LOB years to 2020, '20 and '21 would no doubt have both been top 5 to 10 years.

I just don't see how anyone at this point can't see that a guy who has blatantly missed what pros like Kurt Warner called 'high school ' reads, could have been such a dominant force during his time here.

Or how such an elite qb could be so easily defeated by one of the most basic cover schemes in the NFL.

Or how bad O lines seem to follow him wherever he goes. Remember, Denver was supposed to be his saving grace because finally, he would have solid protection. Didn't happen.

Then, Payton was supposed to be his saving grace because he could get the best out of him, build an offense that could protect him, etc. Etc. Hasn't happened.

I still can't find a single Russ supporter who can make a reasonable defense of his inability to make basic reads (I'll leave it there on that one deficiency) and / or explain how any QB in NFL history could be so bad, yet NOT be responsible for putting his team in negative situations.

1 and 1 is 2, always. If you can't read defense and diagnose coverage, you invariably will be a liability. There's no 2 ways around it.

Fact is, Russ was great and part of his greatness was getting us out of deficits. He, the qb who couldn't and still can't read basic plays was also responsible for putting is in a good number of those deficits. That is by now undeniable fact, proven by his play on the field, sans the 'cover ' of being held back by Pete, AND by the testimony of his former mates.

 

[rcaido]

It doesn't support the narrative that we had a "terrible" running game, now does it?

Nope, with Wilson & Pete as coach, we always had a top running game majority of his career in SEattle. A lot of it has to do w/ Wilson also being a runner. he lead the team rushing 1 year.

With that said, Wilson was not terrible in Redzones due to completion percentage.

 

[Ostatehawk]

Exactly. The stat pushers that claim he's having a good year can't be watching the games.

The entire Broncos pass offense is 90% either outlet pass, or broken coverage big play. Or stats stacked when defenses are playing soft and giving up the underneath.

There is little to no continuity.

He had a decent stat line in the Miami game.

Which, if I recall, the donk lost 70-20. His stats this season are exactly what was stated earlier - predominantly generated in garbage time.

 

[RiverDog]

Nope, with Wilson & Pete as coach, we always had a top running game majority of his career in SEattle. A lot of it has to do w/ Wilson also being a runner. he lead the team rushing 1 year.

With that said, Wilson was not terrible in Redzones due to completion percentage.

The year when Russell led the team in rushing was in 2014, 9 years ago and at the end of the LOB era. The discussion is about his past 4-5 years.

I'm not sure I follow your logic that because the Hawks as a team were good in the red zone that it means Russell's very poor red zone completion percentage is irrelevant. He had a very good rushing game to bail him out of a major weakness.

I never thought that Russell was horrible when he played for us. I just thought that he was overrated, that he wasn't a quarterback who could get us back to the Super Bowl unless he changed his style of play to compensate for those things that Father Time has taken away from him, specifically to get rid of the ball quicker. At the time, ie prior to the trade, I thought that he could recognize his weaknesses and make that adjustment, but so far, even a change of scenery and 3 different head coaches in as many years, he hasn't done it.

 

[rcaido]

The year when Russell led the team in rushing was in 2014, 9 years ago and at the end of the LOB era. The discussion is about his past 4-5 years.

I'm not sure I follow your logic that because the Hawks as a team were good in the red zone that it means Russell's very poor red zone completion percentage is irrelevant. He had a very good rushing game to bail him out of a major weakness.

I never thought that Russell was horrible when he played for us. I just thought that he was overrated, that he wasn't a quarterback who could get us back to the Super Bowl unless he changed his style of play to compensate for those things that Father Time has taken away from him, specifically to get rid of the ball quicker. At the time, ie prior to the trade, I thought that he could recognize his weaknesses and make that adjustment, but so far, even a change of scenery and 3 different head coaches in as many years, he hasn't done it.

Wilson led the Seahawks in rushing in 2017 & almost in 2020.

red zone completion percentage is misleading. My point is that Wilson was one of the tops in TDs when it came to redzone. It may have taken more passes but they still ended up scoring.

As for Wilson, he did change during the Let him cook. He had to because the defense was horrible. We needed points and Wilson provided it. He had the most tds in 4 year span he was cooking.

 

[Ozzy]

Wilson led the Seahawks in rushing in 2017 & almost in 2020.

red zone completion percentage is misleading. My point is that Wilson was one of the tops in TDs when it came to redzone. It may have taken more passes but they still ended up scoring.

As for Wilson, he did change during the Let him cook. He had to because the defense was horrible. We needed points and Wilson provided it. He had the most tds in 4 year span he was cooking.

I don’t remember who above said it but they said Russ never had to deal with a terrible rushing attack, if you’re QB leads your team in rushing it’s probably it not a good one like in 2017 and 2020.

 

[rcaido]

I don’t remember who above said it but they said Russ never had to deal with a terrible rushing attack, if you’re QB leads your team in rushing it’s probably it not a good one like in 2017 and 2020.

2021 - 28th Penny 749yards
2020 - 27th Carson 681 yards (513 yards Wilson)
2019 - 5th Carson 1230 yards
2018 - 5th Carson 1151 yards
2017 - 34th Wilson 585 yards
2016 - 28th Michaels 583yards
2015- 16th Rawls 830 yards

Yikes its worst then i thought. This is the rushing help by the RB they have had since Beastmode left. Two seasons w/ Carson we were in the top 10, the rest our rushing is bad without Wilson helping.

 

[knownone]

Russell was great in the past. He has not been good recently.

Seattle's offense is more talented, but Denver's talent is not bad. The Broncos have a good O-Line (all-pro LT, their line is ranked higher than Seattle in almost every category this season), good RB, and plenty of talent at receiver (a pro bowler and several top 40 picks over the last three seasons). And yet the Broncos are asking Russell to throw the ball the second-fewest times in his career. And we're getting numerous reports that they may move on from him. Why is that?

 

[keasley45]

I don’t remember who above said it but they said Russ never had to deal with a terrible rushing attack, if you’re QB leads your team in rushing it’s probably it not a good one like in 2017 and 2020.

In 2020, Chris Carson went down with an injury and finished with just shy of 700 yards in 12 games. The backfield between he, Alex Collins and Carlos Hyde averaged 4.8, 4.4 and 4.3 yards per carry. In what universe is that NOT a formidable rushing attack? Only Dallas and Homer, who were situational at best, averaged less than 4 yards per carry.

This is yet another example of looking at stats out of context. Sure it helps set the narrative that Russ had to compensate for a poor attack. But the attack was platooned due to the loss of a starter, and in that effort to compensate for Carson being out, the lead backs still averaged 4.4 yards per carry. So it's not as if Russ was made to carry a team that was failing. In fact, the rushing game was the only thing working well in the playoff loss that year and we failed to lean on it. Russ in that game? Horrid.

During the season, the rushing attack was literally sidelined by Russ's MVP chase.lt saw games Like week 1 in Atlanta where Carson and Hyde combined for 13 carries, despite us having the game in hand from the beginning. They weren't given the ball

The following week, they combined only received 22 carries. Not given the ball

Week 3? 18 carries between them. Again...

The entire season went that way until Pete called BS on the whole LRC deal. The offense had become Russ's personal highlight reel. So looking back and painting it as if he HAD to do X is like the saying the coaches son who never passes the ball despite having a solid supporting cast always has to carry the team.

And i mean, Cam Newton ran for more yards the same year and no one looks at it as some great accomplishment. Taysom Hill did the same in NO.

Russ was and is a QB who needs to run to be successful.

2017... we had no one at RB due to injury and he put on a show doing what he does best. Living off script and being FORCED to be a running QB - who and what he really is. But the player he refuses to just be.

 

[RiverDog]

Alright, I finally found the link I was looking for that tracks quarterback's 3rd down completion percentage. This one is from the 2021 season, Russell's last season with us, and his 3rd down performance was horrible, 51.5%, ranking him 31st amongst quarterbacks with 50+ 3rd down attempts:

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Just so I don't get accused of cherry picking, Russell's 2021 season was his worst. But he was still never in the top 10 of starting quarterbacks on 3rd down. In 2018, for example, he ranked 20th with 59.1%.

Combine that with the aforementioned red zone completion percentage and a picture begins to emerge that Russell didn't perform when he was needed the most, ie on 3rd down and in the red zone.

 

[keasley45]

2021 - 28th Penny 749yards
2020 - 27th Carson 681 yards (513 yards Wilson)
2019 - 5th Carson 1230 yards
2018 - 5th Carson 1151 yards
2017 - 34th Wilson 585 yards
2016 - 28th Michaels 583yards
2015- 16th Rawls 830 yards

Yikes its worst then i thought. This is the rushing help by the RB they have had since Beastmode left. Two seasons w/ Carson we were in the top 10, the rest our rushing is bad without Wilson helping.

Bro, you deserve an award for steering stats.

In 2015, the Seahawks without RW and their platooned starting rbs averaged better than 5 ypc. FIVE YARDS PER CARRY. without Wilson. You list Rawls, but leave off Lynch and Michael. They ran for almost 1500 yards between them without Russ.

2016 and 2017 were acknowledged as down years because of injury.

But 2020 I explained in a post above, clearly.

And 2021. Again, you only list Penny and in doing so, twist it to negate the fact that our platooned starters averaged nearly 5 ypc ... again. Penny, Carson and Collins.

In no universe is a starting backfield that averages 5 ypc a unit you have to carry.

And in 2018 and 2019 with a healthy attack that didn't require a shared workload between multiple players, our attack was one of the best in the league.

And the fact that we had to split the load in a nicked backfield and still had starters who tallied mid 4s in ypc? That's a solid track record of rushing effectively. Not the opposite.

 

[keasley45]

Alright, I finally found the link I was looking for that tracks quarterback's 3rd down completion percentage. This one is from the 2021 season, Russell's last season with us, and his 3rd down performance was horrible, 51.5%, ranking him 31st amongst quarterbacks with 50+ 3rd down attempts:

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Just so I don't get accused of cherry picking, Russell's 2021 season was his worst. But he was still never in the top 10 of starting quarterbacks on 3rd down. In 2018, for example, he ranked 20th with 59.1%.

Combine that with the aforementioned red zone completion percentage and a picture begins to emerge that Russell didn't perform when he was needed the most, ie on 3rd down and in the red zone.

I put together an entire thread going back multiple years after the 2020 season and it showed unequivocally that Russ, dating back to 2016 or further I think was never better than 12th (and that was once) in passing 3rd down success and spent the majority of his career in the low 20s. He is the only qb in this era who was considered 'elite' but put up numbers that consistently poor.

It's not hating on the dude. It's just facts.

And when you know thise facts you are compelled to speak them in the face of statements like ' for several years, he was our entire offense '... etc, etc, etc.

 

[keasley45]

And I mean, at the end of the day, if Russ was this HOF force that carried the Seahawks for years, why did Payton come to Denver despite Russ? And why isn't he thrilled with him now? Payton, the guy Russ always wanted and was painted as THE guy to get the best from him? Are we honestly supposed to believe that Payton couldn't see Russ's true value? That an EXPERT at evaluating the position looked at the qb he was inheriting and said no thanks.

But in the context of this eternal debate about Russ, that that should carry no weight?

 

[rcaido]

Alright, I finally found the link I was looking for that tracks quarterback's 3rd down completion percentage. This one is from the 2021 season, Russell's last season with us, and his 3rd down performance was horrible, 51.5%, ranking him 31st amongst quarterbacks with 50+ 3rd down attempts:

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Just so I don't get accused of cherry picking, Russell's 2021 season was his worst. But he was still never in the top 10 of starting quarterbacks on 3rd down. In 2018, for example, he ranked 20th with 59.1%.

Combine that with the aforementioned red zone completion percentage and a picture begins to emerge that Russell didn't perform when he was needed the most, ie on 3rd down and in the red zone.

I mean that was the year he got injured. Came back probably 3 games too soon. 2021 should never be counted. Before he got injured he was playing great.

As for never being top 10 in 3rd down completion, Wilson was #3 in 2015, 9th 2019, & he is currently #4 right now w/ the Broncos. Also the years he started cooking his completion was higher then some of the top QBs.
2018 - Brady & Rodgers
2019 - Rodgers, Ryan, Rivers, Brady, Jackson
2020 - Ryan, Herbert, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Jackson, Burrow

I still think this is a cherry picking stat. Its a situational situation, if the QB doesn't convert 3rd and long due to penalties, that affects his stats. If you look at Wilson 3rd in short, he is one of the best QBs in converting. The stats also doesn't consider him rushing in 3rd down too. Wilson/Seahawks were in the top 10 almost every year in offense scored & never had a losing season till the injury. I think Brady is the only other QB that can say that for that decade of football.

 

[keasley45]

I mean that was the year he got injured. Came back probably 3 games too soon. 2021 should never be counted. Before he got injured he was playing great.

As for never being top 10 in 3rd down completion, Wilson was #3 in 2015, 9th 2019, & he is currently #4 right now w/ the Broncos. Also the years he started cooking his completion was higher then some of the top QBs.
2018 - Brady & Rodgers
2019 - Rodgers, Ryan, Rivers, Brady, Jackson
2020 - Ryan, Herbert, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Jackson, Burrow

I still think this is a cherry picking stat. Its a situational situation, if the QB doesn't convert 3rd and long due to penalties, that affects his stats. If you look at Wilson 3rd in short, he is one of the best QBs in converting. The stats also doesn't consider him rushing in 3rd down too. Wilson/Seahawks were in the top 10 almost every year in offense scored & never had a losing season till the injury. I think Brady is the only other QB that can say that for that decade of football.

Nobody doubts Russ's rushing prowess. It's what he needs to be effective. Without it, he's never been abke to be the guy he wants to be.

And stats getting specifically at his ability to PASS as a qb on 3rd down and succeed aren't misleading. They are central to a players ability to play the position in a way that maximizes his team's success.

And... his stats on 3rd down and between 1 and 11 yards are documented here

Are we really that good through the air?

There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for...

www.seahawks.net

And set in context with other top QBs. He has simply not been good at converting on that down, when teams know he's going to likely be throwing.

 

[RiverDog]

I mean that was the year he got injured.

That excuse doesn't fly. That particular year, I was tracking his 3rd down performance and he sucked on 3rd down BEFORE he got injured. I was tracking it because I was getting so frustrated to see him throwing a low percentage 30 yard pass to Metcalf when all we needed was 8 yards for a first down.

But I don't have a link to support my contention as I don't see where it can be broken out by week. You'll just have to take my word for it.

 

[keasley45]

That excuse doesn't fly. That particular year, I was tracking his 3rd down performance and he sucked on 3rd down BEFORE he got injured.

But I don't have a link to support my contention as I don't see where it can be broken out by week. You'll just have to take my word for it.

Yup. And his offense was 30th I think in average plays per drive AND average drive duration.

Before the mallet finger.