RolandDeschain
Well-known member
Week 4 has come and gone, which means Football Outsiders is now using defense-adjusted value over average. The first three weeks of each season, Football Outsiders doesn't have enough tape to make their ranking adjustments based on opposing defenses, (which is probably the most critical aspect of their rankings being so accurate) so the rankings in the first three weeks are iffy or more "normal" compared to other statistics websites. Once they start to be able to calculate defensive trends and adjust opposing offenses accordingly, though, their DVOA stat is far and away the most accurate "numeric representation on paper" for the performance of teams and their various parts. It's not perfect. No stat ever will be. It IS pretty dang good, however, and is definitely the best single stat out there; though calling it a "single" stat is kind of misleading because of how much goes into it.
Without further adieu, the Seahawks have the #1 defense in the NFL right now at a whopping -28.0% DVOA for total defense. The next closest is Tampa Bay at -19.6%. Not even close. This includes a considerable drop because of how much we gave up (in the way of yards and points) to Houston. The way DVOA works, positive numbers are better for offenses, and like golf, the deeper the negative number for defenses, the better.
A huge part of this is our pass defense. Our pass defense, despite letting Schaub throw for what, 355 yards and two TDs, is currently sitting at a sexy #1 ranking of -36.9%. It would have been considerably higher than that if we had held Schaub to something reasonable, rather than crapping the bed the first half against him, too. I expect our pass defense to actually improve over time, as well as our overall defensive ranking. These numbers both took a decently sized hit because of how much we gave up at Houston, and we're still #1 in pass defense and overall defense.
Our rush defense, on the other hand, is ranked 10th at -16.8%. Still a respectable number, but obviously our weak spot comparatively.
Our offense is ranked 9th overall with a 6.6% DVOA, which is a little bit surprising to me. I would have guessed a worse ranking than that. What is even more striking is that we're currently the 5th-ranked passing attack in the NFL with a 31.7% passing DVOA, but we're ranked 11th in rushing DVOA at -1.1%. Very intriguing. Beast Mode wasn't able to get much in two of our four games, so I guess it doesn't really surprise me. We haven't even really gotten our offense going, but apparently we've been effective once we start driving. (That 98-yard drive at the end of the Houston game sure was a beauty.)
Our special teams DVOA is #2 in the league at 8.5%, too. We obviously know our special teams have been performing exceptionally well, and the only reason Denver's is above us is because of a couple of great plays (I believe they have two special teams scores now, or is it just one?) and I think we can rise to #1 within a few weeks, but we'll have to see. I'm not taking anything away from Denver's special teams, just FYI.
The receivers DVOA hasn't been updated for this week yet, but should be later tonight. I expect a particularly juicy ranking for Doug Baldwin; details to come once they update.
Edit: receivers DVOA just went live for this week.
Doug Baldwin is ranked 16th in the league for DYAR - that's Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. If you want explanations of how all the DVOA, DYAR, etc. rankings are calculated, go here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
For a guy who sees little action, that is impressive, because DYAR is mostly a cumulative stat. Guys that get a lot of catches are high on that list, typically. Baldwin being that high is incredible for the number of receptions he has. However, the more telling statistic, is that Doug Baldwin is currently ranked 3rd in the entire league in receiver DVOA. This is the quality-based stat that is largely irrelevant to things like total number of yards, receptions, and TDs. It's all about how effective you are when you do stuff, basically. Only Eddie Royal and Jordy Nelson are above Doug Baldwin right now in this category. Basically, Baldwin has been absolutely awesome for us thus far this year. He's also #2 in the league for catch rate at 80%. Only Nate Burleson at 83% exceeds him.
Without further adieu, the Seahawks have the #1 defense in the NFL right now at a whopping -28.0% DVOA for total defense. The next closest is Tampa Bay at -19.6%. Not even close. This includes a considerable drop because of how much we gave up (in the way of yards and points) to Houston. The way DVOA works, positive numbers are better for offenses, and like golf, the deeper the negative number for defenses, the better.
A huge part of this is our pass defense. Our pass defense, despite letting Schaub throw for what, 355 yards and two TDs, is currently sitting at a sexy #1 ranking of -36.9%. It would have been considerably higher than that if we had held Schaub to something reasonable, rather than crapping the bed the first half against him, too. I expect our pass defense to actually improve over time, as well as our overall defensive ranking. These numbers both took a decently sized hit because of how much we gave up at Houston, and we're still #1 in pass defense and overall defense.
Our rush defense, on the other hand, is ranked 10th at -16.8%. Still a respectable number, but obviously our weak spot comparatively.
Our offense is ranked 9th overall with a 6.6% DVOA, which is a little bit surprising to me. I would have guessed a worse ranking than that. What is even more striking is that we're currently the 5th-ranked passing attack in the NFL with a 31.7% passing DVOA, but we're ranked 11th in rushing DVOA at -1.1%. Very intriguing. Beast Mode wasn't able to get much in two of our four games, so I guess it doesn't really surprise me. We haven't even really gotten our offense going, but apparently we've been effective once we start driving. (That 98-yard drive at the end of the Houston game sure was a beauty.)
Our special teams DVOA is #2 in the league at 8.5%, too. We obviously know our special teams have been performing exceptionally well, and the only reason Denver's is above us is because of a couple of great plays (I believe they have two special teams scores now, or is it just one?) and I think we can rise to #1 within a few weeks, but we'll have to see. I'm not taking anything away from Denver's special teams, just FYI.
The receivers DVOA hasn't been updated for this week yet, but should be later tonight. I expect a particularly juicy ranking for Doug Baldwin; details to come once they update.
Edit: receivers DVOA just went live for this week.
Doug Baldwin is ranked 16th in the league for DYAR - that's Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. If you want explanations of how all the DVOA, DYAR, etc. rankings are calculated, go here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
For a guy who sees little action, that is impressive, because DYAR is mostly a cumulative stat. Guys that get a lot of catches are high on that list, typically. Baldwin being that high is incredible for the number of receptions he has. However, the more telling statistic, is that Doug Baldwin is currently ranked 3rd in the entire league in receiver DVOA. This is the quality-based stat that is largely irrelevant to things like total number of yards, receptions, and TDs. It's all about how effective you are when you do stuff, basically. Only Eddie Royal and Jordy Nelson are above Doug Baldwin right now in this category. Basically, Baldwin has been absolutely awesome for us thus far this year. He's also #2 in the league for catch rate at 80%. Only Nate Burleson at 83% exceeds him.
