How bad is the AFC?

[WilsonMVP]

Doesn't mean much right now but it does mean more than the hypothetical games played out in your head. And you don't need to convince me that Seattle is the better team. That's more or less my point. Russell Wilson had a far superior team around him and Luck still beat him heads up. Not every quarterback can win a Super Bowl by only throwing only 3 playoff touchdowns in 3 playoff games?!? For as bad a game as Luck had against New England in the playoffs last year (QBR of 25.0), Wilson's game against the Saints was just as bad (QBR 25.9). The difference? Seattle's defense limited the Saints to 15 points while the Patriots put up 43. Wilson could afford to suck, which he did, and still win the game. Most quarterbacks don't have that luxury.

Bear in mind that, especially as a rushing team, you don't have to have a lot of passing touchdowns to win games. And even so, Luck has thrown 9 TDs and 10 INTs in the playoffs, while Wilson has thrown 9 TDs and 1 INT in one more game. Wilson also has 1 rushing TD to add to that total.

And while Wilson had a horrible QBR against the Saints, he threw zero picks that game. His lone interception was on a hail Mary pass at the end of the Falcons game in 2012. Luck threw FOUR TIMES as many interceptions as Wilson has in his entire playoff career in that one game alone.

Wilson could afford to suck and not make plays because his defense wasn't giving up 43 points. In fact, it was a shutout into the fourth quarter.

Luck has to make plays and throw down field. With increased risk there will be more mistakes. Football 101. Most QBs can't win a playoff game by throwing for only 103 yards and rushing for 16 more with no TDs.

There is no way the Colts are even a playoff team if Wilson were our quarterback.

Didnt Luck throw a pick six to start the Patriots game last year...im sure that was all on the D huh? Oh ok fine it wasnt a pick six because the guy only returned it to the 2 yard line

 

[WilsonMVP]

It was the same last year: All the AFC Playoff games looked like they were being played in slow motion. The NFC games were so much faster and the hits were so much more intense.

Maybe this is the real reason why I cant watch games on CBS during the regular season and it bores me to death...because its a snooze fest and not that intense like the NFC games.

 

[kearly]

Doesn't mean much right now but it does mean more than the hypothetical games played out in your head. And you don't need to convince me that Seattle is the better team. That's more or less my point. Russell Wilson had a far superior team around him and Luck still beat him heads up. Not every quarterback can win a Super Bowl by only throwing only 3 playoff touchdowns in 3 playoff games?!? For as bad a game as Luck had against New England in the playoffs last year (QBR of 25.0), Wilson's game against the Saints was just as bad (QBR 25.9). The difference? Seattle's defense limited the Saints to 15 points while the Patriots put up 43. Wilson could afford to suck, which he did, and still win the game. Most quarterbacks don't have that luxury.

Kinda dumb to judge a QB by one game is it not? Wilson has the highest postseason passer rating in NFL history currently, and also has the highest passer rating of any QB in his first three seasons ever. But no, lets cherry pick individual games and judge.

Aside from Lynch, Wilson's supporting cast on offense is not that great. His defense helps him win games, but if we are looking at his passing effeciency, he's mostly had to do it on his own with average receivers and one of the worst pass protecting lines in the NFL. Seattle had almost the same exact team in 2011 without Wilson and went 7-9. Wilson doesn't add as many wins to his team as Luck does, but he's one of the league's more valuable players.

Don't be one of the idiots that buys into the lame-brained game manager diatribe. A game manager is a QB who can't make the big play or lead his team back to win. Seattle's offense led the NFL in explosive plays this season, and Wilson has as many 4th quarter comebacks as any QB in the league the last three years.

I respect the Colts more than most. In fact, I'm more afraid of them in the SB than New England because they win more matchups against Seattle than the Patriots do. I think Luck is a good QB who is coming along nicely. Like Wilson he just makes plays and never hangs his head.

Last thing. I know you are a Luck fan, and QBR was designed to make Luck look good, but don't quote that stat. It is garbage. QBR would tell you that Colin Kaepernick is the best QB in the NFC West, or that Tom Brady is just average.

 

[jlwaters1]

The AFC has no parity.

In the past 21 seasons, there's been 42 teams in the AFCCG. 31 have been by the same 5 teams:

Pats: 10
Colts: 5
Ravens: 4
Steelers: 8
Broncos: 4

Those same 5 teams have won 10 of the last 17 Super Bowls.

And yet only 1 Superbowl victory from those teams in the last 5 years. (Which is the more relevant time period.) 2 in the last 7 years. Most of the AFC dominance was the early- mid 2000's.

 

[Smellyman]

It's only because of that big bad defense, is it? I mean, it's not like Wilson is any good himself.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/zjwhitman/status/554163739033759744[/tweet]

Maybe we should compare him to another mediocre game manager quarterback who couldn't really do a thing without his defense winning games for him.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/zjwhitman/status/554156728837607424[/tweet]

But of course, Wilson has a lot of superstars to work with on offense too, so they're bailing him out just as much. I mean, just look at all those offensive weapons.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/zjwhitman/status/554706265163587586[/tweet]

But hey, he's not expected to put up really great numbers with those kinds of receivers and tight ends, is he? From that same game...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Curtis_Crabtree/status/554131238252863488[/tweet]

And of course, when he had to step up and make something happen...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/johnpboyle/status/554143488913072128[/tweet]

But of course, head to head, Luck is simply a much better quarterback, right?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/hwkbgr/status/554675118824513537[/tweet]

Just which of those numbers suggests a player that sucks and just wins because of his defense? Is it this one?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AaronRyanLA/status/554688651305967618[/tweet]

WOW. Nicely done

 

[camdawg]

Not every quarterback can win a Super Bowl by only throwing only 3 playoff touchdowns in 3 playoff games?!? For as bad a game as Luck had against New England in the playoffs last year (QBR of 25.0), Wilson's game against the Saints was just as bad (QBR 25.9). The difference? Seattle's defense limited the Saints to 15 points while the Patriots put up 43. Wilson could afford to suck, which he did, and still win the game. Most quarterbacks don't have that luxury.

Since you're so well versed in statistics, you seem like the kinda guy that would know what QB was able to win a Super Bowl by only throwing three TD passes over a FOUR game playoff run. Memory kinda hazy....I think I remember the Super Bowl being rainy that year? Would you be able to help us out here?

Speaking of that rainy Super Bowl, didn't it affect the performance of the non-Grossman QB, as well as Rex Grossman? So if there's a playoff game that's in even worse rain that that...don't you think that could hurt QB performance as well? Russell struggled...but so did Drew Brees, who led his team to zero points through the first three quarters of the game.

 

[Fisherhawk]

In the NO Saints playoff game it also had a lot of wind.Gusts over 35mph if I remember right.
There wasn't very much throwing going on until well after halftime, when the winds died down.
That part of the game doesn't show up when you are only looking at QBR.

 

[Smellyman]

In the NO Saints playoff game it also had a lot of wind.Gusts over 35mph if I remember right.
There wasn't very much throwing going on until well after halftime, when the winds died down.
That part of the game doesn't show up when you are only looking at QBR.

wind and rain. It was a miserable game.

 

[Hawkfan77]

During the playoffs, I was struck by how bad AFC teams seemed compared to NFC teams. The games just seemed worse, it was like watching the MW for the first time after watching nothing but SEC games, I'm left wondering why the tackling is so bad and why everyone is so slow. Seriously, outside of NE what AFC team scares you? The Colts? a team who literally had the easiest schedule of any team in the NFL and was outscored 270 to 169 against teams with a winning record... scary.

Am I missing something? I seriously feel like Dallas, GB, and Seattle would win the AFC if they were in it. Hell, I'd make the case that Carolina and Detroit would make it to the AFC Championship game.

I'm just glad the Colts didn't have to play Seattle last year. I'm not sure the Colts would've scored.

So odd that a colts troll is here...their season is almost over...

Russell Wilson is about to have 2 rings before Luck's first SB appearance

 

[Hawkfan77]

Doesn't mean much right now but it does mean more than the hypothetical games played out in your head. And you don't need to convince me that Seattle is the better team. That's more or less my point. Russell Wilson had a far superior team around him and Luck still beat him heads up. Not every quarterback can win a Super Bowl by only throwing only 3 playoff touchdowns in 3 playoff games?!? For as bad a game as Luck had against New England in the playoffs last year (QBR of 25.0), Wilson's game against the Saints was just as bad (QBR 25.9). The difference? Seattle's defense limited the Saints to 15 points while the Patriots put up 43. Wilson could afford to suck, which he did, and still win the game. Most quarterbacks don't have that luxury.

Way to gloss right over the fact that Luck threw 4 interceptions and Wilson threw 0. Luck helped in the Pats scoring 43 points, Wilson didn't help Saints score because he takes care of the ball and can actually read a defense and make necessary throws.

How points did the Pats score off of turnovers? I know the Saints scored 0...

 

[WilsonMVP]

Doesn't mean much right now but it does mean more than the hypothetical games played out in your head. And you don't need to convince me that Seattle is the better team. That's more or less my point. Russell Wilson had a far superior team around him and Luck still beat him heads up. Not every quarterback can win a Super Bowl by only throwing only 3 playoff touchdowns in 3 playoff games?!? For as bad a game as Luck had against New England in the playoffs last year (QBR of 25.0), Wilson's game against the Saints was just as bad (QBR 25.9). The difference? Seattle's defense limited the Saints to 15 points while the Patriots put up 43. Wilson could afford to suck, which he did, and still win the game. Most quarterbacks don't have that luxury.

Way to gloss right over the fact that Luck threw 4 interceptions and Wilson threw 0. Luck helped in the Pats scoring 43 points, Wilson didn't help Saints score because he takes care of the ball and can actually read a defense and make necessary throws.

How points did the Pats score off of turnovers? I know the Saints scored 0...

I also think its funny that Colts fans and Luck fans like to point out Luck beat him head to head but want to ignore Wilson has not lost a game to Brady, Manning, Brees, or Rodgers the so called Elite 4 QBs. Cant have it both ways. Also if they actually called the safety a TD and we dont have a FG blocked for a TD that game is probably heading to blowout city. We were about to be up 15-7 and then bam we are behind 12-14