TXHawk
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Hawkpower":29hqa4ak said:The problem with drawing a clear distinction between the two is level of usage. Luck has thrown just under 50% more passes than Wilson has. He's asked to do a lot more. And in terms of numbers, one number that is significantly in Luck's favor is WPA (win probability added). Obviously he laps Wilson in gross yardage for the same reason. Luck's sample size makes his continued success a surer thing. Luck is asked to shoulder the whole load, while Wilson is asked to do a good, efficient job of commandeering a more talented offense who consistently gets left in better positions by a better defense.
If asked to do a lot more, to shoulder a Luck-level load, could he do it as well or even better? Sure, possibly. But he's extremely well-protected in our system right now, and the evidence is just incomplete at this point.
For what it's worth, I agree that Wilson has probably been the better one so far. However, I also think that it's a difficult comparison, and I think the question of which one is likely to be a bigger asset going forward is a far tougher one to call, and one that may actually tilt Luck's way.
It's not at all obvious that the Seahawks had a more talented offense in 2013 than the Colts. Most experts would have taken the Colts WR group with Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton over our "pedestrian" unit, and the Hawks' OL was a certified mess. Granted Lynch is far better than Trent Richardson but each team averaged the same yards per carry (4.3) with the Colts scoring one more rushing TD (15-14). The primary difference between the two teams' running game is that Carroll is much more committed to it than Pagano. You also claim that the Seahawks defense consistently left Wilson and the offense in a better position yet the Seahawks average drive started at the 31.0 compared to the 28.3 for the Colts. A 2.7 yard difference is a marginal advantage at best.
And as far as putting points on the board, which is where the rubber meets the road, the Colts offense has scored fewer points than the Seahawks offense in each of the past two years. The Colts finished 18th in the NFL in points per game in 2012 and 14th last year so if Luck has been shouldering a greater load he's only managed to carry it to the middle of the pack so far. The Colts defense only gave up 21.0 points per game (ranked 9th) so its not as if he was forced to put up big numbers to win the way the much-maligned Tony Romo was in Dallas, to provide an alternate example of a QB who actually was forced to carry a huge load to overcome a terrible defense.
And if your claim that Luck's larger sample size of passes thrown make him a surer bet going forward is true that should be worrisome to Colts' fans. His career completion pct (57.0), TD pct (3.8 ), Y/A (6.8 ), ANY/A (5.85), and QB rating (81.5) are all quite unremarkable and well below elite levels. They also lag well behind Wilson's numbers despite playing in a much weaker division.
I like Andrew Luck and do think he has enormous potential but his performance level up to this point has been grossly overhyped by the media, in my opinion.