I think we win next week

[Sports Hernia]

If we win the rest of our games I think we could finish 12-4.

You are right! :th2thumbs:
Sounds like a plan.

 

[MidwestHawker]

"Lesser" team or not, they're playing better, even with a backup QB. They have a ton of momentum, and confidence...not only in a very long win streak, but also in winning the last time they came up here.

They're not really playing better, no. They're getting better variance in their results, which is obviously to their significant advantage since it's just a 16-game season and stats don't always have time to revert to the mean, but their inferiority to us in those efficiency stats linked above says the exact opposite about whether they're playing better. Those things are only measuring performance and aren't measuring human bias toward which team was expected to be better, etc.

I do think they're a pretty big favorite to outlast us for the division at this point since they've built a sizable lead with only six to play, but with that said, nothing they've done is predictive of an expectation of a win this coming weekend.

As far as other stuff...

Momentum: This is purely an in-game phenomenon, especially in football. There are long-term studies that have shown pretty conclusively that game-to-game momentum is purely a media fabrication. If a team follows a win with another win, it gets called momentum. If a team follows a win with a loss then it's called a trap game. Basically the notion of "momentum" always gets framed so that it can't be discredited in the way that it's used.

Confidence: Yeah this is true. I would also firmly suggest that the Hawks are a very confident bunch, and that the losses we've taken wouldn't change that at all. I doubt Arizona is actually more confident than this Seahawks team; if anything, it would be about even. The confidence factor, if there is one, is nothing detrimental to our team's efforts next week.

 

[dontbelikethat]

care to explain why you think arizona is the lesser team?

Sure.

Inpredictable (betting market analytics): Seahawks rated as 3.1 points better on a neutral field coming into today. That was coming into today and thus doesn't count today's results if they would cause significant market shifts, but it's consistent with the betting spread coming out as Seahawks -6.5 at home this coming week. A line that opened at -6 has actually been bet in the Seahawks' direction by half a point, so the gamblers obviously prefer us by a fair bit.

Football Outsiders DVOA: Seahawks ranked 4th in the league, Cardinals ranked 15th. Again that's subject to change after today's performances, but very unlikely they would close an 11-spot gap.

Advanced NFL Analytics Efficiency Ratings: Seahawks ranked 4th in the league, Cardinals ranked 19th. (Ditto for the DVOA disclaimer except an even wider gap here.)

The Cardinals are a good team with an inflated record. I'm not attempting to say that they're not good; they're just not great, and every reasonable analytic ranking system says that we're somewhat significantly better than they are, particularly the betting market, where 3 points on a neutral field is a pretty wide gap between two squads.

That's fine I get it with the stats, but was San Diego the lesser team when we played them, were the Rams the lesser team when we played them, Chiefs maybe? What were their DVOA's or Advanced NFL efficiency ratings? Cowboys didn't seem to have a problem with the HFA.

We're 4th in DVOA? Where are the Raiders? Probably like in the 20's, maybe even 30's? What does it mean that we can only beat a team that is probably 20 spots lower than us in DVOA,etc. by one possession? Can DVOA explain that? Look DVOA and the advanced stats are great metrics, no doubt about it, but give the Cardinals credit where it's due. It's any given sunday, they're 9-1, controlling the division, and while beating teams we couldn't on the way to that record.

Still though, I believe. I think this can be a bounce back game, but again, it's going to be tough as hell.

 

[MidwestHawker]

That's fine I get it with the stats, but was San Diego the lesser team when we played them, were the Rams the lesser team when we played them, Chiefs maybe? What were their DVOA's or Advanced NFL efficiency ratings? Cowboys didn't seem to have a problem with the HFA.

There's no DVOA in the initial weeks since there isn't enough data to analyze yet (they use DAVE or something, which includes some predicting formula...I don't put as much stock into that), so n/a on San Diego. Yes the Rams were and are clearly an inferior team to us. The Chiefs likely had lower efficiency ratings but were slight favorites over us in the betting market when accounting for the location of the game, so nothing was really surprising about this result.

We're 4th in DVOA? Where are the Raiders? Probably like in the 20's, maybe even 30's? What does it mean that we can only beat a team that is probably 20 spots lower than us in DVOA,etc. by one possession? Can DVOA explain that?

What does it mean? It means that predicting football game is something that can only be done with probabilities, and that there are no certainties. If there's a 92% chance of something occurring, then it doesn't occur in a single instance, that doesn't mean that the statistic was wrong; that means that the less likely scenario hit. And of course that happens in the NFL; that's where the "Any Given Sunday" cliche came from. The nature of this league is that it's a high-variance sport, especially with the single-elimination playoff system, and that's why often the best team in the league doesn't win it all.

If we're playing poker and I have three of a kind and all you have is a diamond flush draw with one card to come, I'll win roughly 80% of the time. If a diamond hits on the river, my hand was still the better one to have even though it lost. All you can do is put yourself into a position where you're the favorite and then hope that variance doesn't smack you in the face.

Look DVOA and the advanced stats are great metrics, no doubt about it, but give the Cardinals credit where it's due. It's any given sunday, they're 9-1, controlling the division, and while beating teams we couldn't on the way to that record.

Like I said, I give them credit for being a good (but not great) team. I think that's a fair objective assessment of them. As stated in my post above, I do think they're a clear favorite to win the division at this point, just because a lot would have to fall into place for us (or SF) to catch them at this point.

 

[dontbelikethat]

^ Always understood your point, was just reiterating the notion that stats,probability,etc. only mean so much. Still have to play the game and crazy things happen during the game/go against probability,etc., like you were insinuating/said. Our differences are in the matter of opinion/is subjective , so there's not much point in debating it. I have a lot of respect for the Cardinals.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Alright, well granted, it's entirely possible for Arizona to beat us. Just not overly likely. But obviously no disagreement from me that the likelier result still isn't a guarantee.

 

[scutterhawk]

I would think our defense would be able to exploit Stanton, but after watching the defense this week I'm not all that sure

I am, and here's why, Seahawks have egg on their faces, and they're going to come out pissed..........Oh, and Bobby Wagner is supposedly going to be back for this game, and I hope he's feeling 100%
On Unger, I don't think he was back to top form last week, nor for this game either, but, this kind of shit happens when you try'n bring a player back too soon.
The Cards know that we are limping, and that they can beat the Seahawks, EVEN AT THEIR OWN HOME, but, I think the HAWKS are going to be playing PO'd , and I don't think I'd be feeling too cocky if I were the Red Birds.

 

[sam1313]

I would have predicted a win with Unger in there. Lewis is not going to call the right audibles, line adjustments, etc. Now I doubt we can move the ball against anything above an average D.

Difference today with and without Unger was remarkable- more noticeable when you compare consecutive plays/series rather than games. Wow.

Really? On the last 4th and one we got stuffed on, it appeared that Lewis was the only guy in the middle who got a good push on his man. I don't know wtf happened to Bailey and Sweezy, but it wasn't pretty. I'm a lot more concerned about the play calling than the OL. I thought they held up really well against a good KC D.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Cards are the worst 9-1 team in the history of the NFL. Fluke. Good team, sure, but not nearly as good as their record. They'll be heading home with a L on Sunday.

 

[sturg78]

I hope we spank them. A win this week can start a cardinal spiral that helps us take the division. As lame as our schedule and injuries have been the most important football is yet to be played...