byau":36hpq1m1 said:
RolandDeschain":36hpq1m1 said:
Marvin & Popeye:
This 1-2 start feels different in a worse way than the 1-2 start you guys had last year, compared to how things looked and felt between weeks three and four of those seasons.
Yes or no?
Definitely would like to hear from the 49er faithful how they would grade their team, Harbaugh, and Kap at this point. Something does seem a bit off and their 1-2 feels different than the 1-2 from last year. I'd go a C+ all around considering the potential they have and how they haven't come close to reaching it.
Happy to oblige (and actually talk football!!)
COMPARING THIS YEAR TO LAST YEAR
*The 1-2 start is definitely different from the 1-2 start last year, although I think it's unclear if it's WORSE or not. Is it worse for team morale to get blown out 29-3 and then 27-7, or to be dominating games through the first half and then handing them away in the second half? As far as morale goes, I really think an argument either way could be valid.
*Comparing this year to last year, in both years the 9ers first three games were against two top 10 offenses and one middle of the pack offense. Last year after three games they were giving up 30 points a game, this year it's 22 points a game so far. They're actually giving up less points per game this year, because unlike last year, the defense is dominating in the first half rather than just getting abused across whole games. That doesn't mean the defense is better this year (by a long shot!), but it's worth considering.
*Saying that the 1-2 start this year may not be as bad as the 1-2 start last year ABSOLUTELY doesn't mean that anyone should be expecting them to go 12-4 again, or making the playoffs again. Going 11-2 is tough as heck. They did it, but that doesn't mean it's repeatable.
Basically what I'm saying is that they very well could be not as bad off at this point, but still finish MUCH worse off than they did last year.
KAEPERNICK AND PASSING ATTACK:
*It's hard to tell how much Kaepernick has developed as a passer, and how much he's just playing differently due to having more weapons. He's cycling through his reads much more and much more quickly than he was last year. His footwork so far is better than last year too. All that said, what I believe to be his biggest problem never gets discussed, and it's the area in which he still struggles most and HAS NOT improved so far IMO:
Kaepernick's biggest weakness is that he either has too much faith in his pre-snap reads, or simply doesn't have the ability to adjust from his pre-snap reads once the play is underway. The vast majority of his interceptions come from him making a mistake in his pre-snap read (it happens to everyone; NFL defenses disguise their coverages), or from a defensive player breaking from assignment and picking him off because they know what he'll be doing from his pre-snap read (e.g. the Conte int and one of the Fuller ints against the Bears, and both of the near INTs against the Cardinals).
This is what's holding him back, not the other stuff that people overstate. It's also the area where he has shown the least improvement. If he doesn't get better in this area, he will have plateaued as a good/above average quarterback (the class of guys like Cutler, Romo, Stafford, Eli, Cam, etc. who people don't really know how to talk about).
RUN ATTACK:
Frank Gore looks the same, Hyde looks better than Hunter. Boone's not all the way back yet and Martin isn't very good. Those two things should get better. Iupati is getting exposed, which I don't think will get better.
Here's the real story, though:
The 9ers offensive line has always been overrated, and each year they look progressively worse for a simple reason that has NOTHING to do with their performance. In Harbaugh's first year the 9ers run game dominated because of scheme. They were using jumbo packages (and putting in lineman at TE) to over power teams which had been built to stop the four wide passing offensive trend of the early and mid 2000s. Opponents didn't know how to deal with it, and they weren't built to deal with. The 9ers run game has been less consistently effective in each successive year because there are increasingly more teams taking the same approach, increasingly more teams building their defenses to combat the approach, and nothing that special about the scheme anymore. The line isn't under performing, they just don't hav ethe advantage they once did. By midway through last year (and through this year) the 9ers have largely moved away from those jumbo formations. It's a whole new running attack, and it's not nearly as special as it was. The 9ers will gain more yards on the ground in some weeks over others, but what we see is what we get. They're going to be hot and cold on the ground. The days of the 9ers being able to lean as heavily as they once did are over, and it has nothing to do with any of the players.
Interested to hear what Marvin has to say.
Will save the defense, Harbaugh, and the coordinators for another post. If anyone is interested, lemme know.