Kaep Agent's take: 49ers face challenges in any new deal

[Brahn]

Wouldn't the Hawks be in a better situation considering they could just franchise Wilson 2 times like you theorized the Niners doing? Neither team will do that but if anything the Hawks could push the QB salary 1 year farther then the Niners could. The Niners are already currently paying Kaep more then the Hawks pay Wilson based on draft position.

Sorry, I'm realizing my post was unclear. Two points of clarification:

1) Conventional wisdom is that the Hawks will have to deal with paying Wilson what he deserves a year after the 9ers have to deal with paying Kaep what he deserves* because Wilson was drafted a year after. My post was a thought experiment about if they might have to deal with it in the same year, rather than it being staggered. Not suggesting this IS what will happen, just thinking through the thought experiment of if there is a scenario in which it could happen.

2) I'm talking about letting either guy play out his contract and then franchising him for one year, not franchising either of them for two years.

This post could get really long from this point forward, or be summed up in three sentences. I'm going with the three sentence version.

Sentence 1 & 2: Politically it's considerably harder to use the franchise tag for players that there aren't questions about, and for players that are unarguably worth a long term contract. It's what the Saints and Packers had to deal with for Brees and Rodgers, and what the Saints are now dealing with for Graham.

Sentence 2 : Because there are less questions about Wilson's game and because he won the Super Bowl, it will be politically harder for the Hawks to franchise Wilson than for the 9ers to franchise Kaepernick, meaning a scenario is possible in which both teams will have to deal with paying their quarterbacks at around the same time (basically sometime between after the Super Bowl and Week 8 of the year after the next).


Hope that makes more sense.



*Not debating what the differential, if any, in what they'll get is, although as of right now I think we have to assume Wilson will get more due to the reaons in "sentence 2."

Fair enough.

On the outside or better then not chance of Harbaugh moving to HC a new team. Do you see a scenario where the Niners move on from Kaep with a new staff in place? I know a lot of it would be based on how well he performs next year. Lets say he has the same year as this year, do you think the new staff would view him as the franchise QB?

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ Yeah, it's a question that probably seemed unthinkable a month ago, but is definitely thinkable now.

My guess is that if Harbaugh is traded next offseason they'll promote Tomsula to HC and be under even more pressure to re-sign Kaepernick. Who knows if that's the right move or not, but Jed York has only been running the team for three years, and purely for the sake of his own legitimacy, I'd guess he'd be extremely averse to blowing up something successful and trying to rebuild so quickly. I'd guess he'd MUCH RATHER roll the dice on trying to do it with everyone except Harbaugh in place, proving that the team is more important that Harbaugh, and that he made the right decision in letting Harbaugh go. If it doesn't work, he's going to have to blow up anyway, so why do it preemptively?

Oddly, IMO, Harbaugh staying is really the only scenario in which they could gracefully move on from Kaepernick should they want to (him staying = "stability" despite the change, and he is after all thought to be a QB guru, and if the next guy doesn't pan out it gets blamed on Harbaugh, not Jed or Baalke).

FWIW I think there's a 90% chance that all of this (both for Harbaugh, and for Kaep) is just a manifestation of offseason doldrums, but for any 9ers fan* with nothing else to think about right now, it's DEFINITELY worth thinking about.

*Or Hawks fan, rooting for the demise of the 9ers, course.

 

[Brahn]

^^^ Yeah, it's a question that probably seemed unthinkable a month ago, but is definitely thinkable now.

My guess is that if Harbaugh is traded next offseason they'll promote Tomsula to HC and be under even more pressure to re-sign Kaepernick. Who knows if that's the right move or not, but Jed York has only been running the team for three years, and purely for the sake of his own legitimacy, I'd guess he'd be extremely averse to blowing up something successful and trying to rebuild so quickly. I'd guess he'd MUCH RATHER roll the dice on trying to do it with everyone except Harbaugh in place, proving that the team is more important that Harbaugh, and that he made the right decision in letting Harbaugh go. If it doesn't work, he's going to have to blow up anyway, so why do it preemptively?

Oddly, IMO, Harbaugh staying is really the only scenario in which they could gracefully move on from Kaepernick should they want to (him staying = "stability" despite the change, and he is after all thought to be a QB guru, and if the next guy doesn't pan out it gets blamed on Harbaugh, not Jed or Baalke).

FWIW I think there's a 90% chance that all of this (both for Harbaugh, and for Kaep) is just a manifestation of offseason doldrums, but for any 9ers fan* with nothing else to think about right now, it's DEFINITELY worth thinking about.

*Or Hawks fan, rooting for the demise of the 9ers, course.

I agree I also feel a lot of this is just the offseason making itself louder then the norm. I still do not see Kaep or Harbaugh leaving. Do you see a chance of them bringing in a Rookie QB or Vet to challenge for the starting job or only as a pure back up?

 

[Subzero717]

Like it or not Kap took that team to a Bowl and an NFCG. Guys like that get dont get traded or hit FA. Say what you want, he shredded GB twice. Has won plenty of other games. We at home have their/his number. He is a douche but lets be real folks. I mean Jay Cutler has had good defenses and is 1-9 vs rival GB and they gave him 18 million a year.

 

[Laloosh]

Like it or not Kap took that team to a Bowl and an NFCG. Guys like that get dont get traded or hit FA. Say what you want, he shredded GB twice. Has won plenty of other games. We at home have their/his number. He is a douche but lets be real folks. I mean Jay Cutler has had good defenses and is 1-9 vs rival GB and they gave him 18 million a year.

Goes without saying but it doesn't take any of the fun out of ribbing Niner fans about him.

 

[Subzero717]

Like it or not Kap took that team to a Bowl and an NFCG. Guys like that get dont get traded or hit FA. Say what you want, he shredded GB twice. Has won plenty of other games. We at home have their/his number. He is a douche but lets be real folks. I mean Jay Cutler has had good defenses and is 1-9 vs rival GB and they gave him 18 million a year.

Goes without saying but it doesn't take any of the fun out of ribbing Niner fans about him.

I get that but, even as much as I hate the Niners it's old. Not to mention we had him 1-2 on our board and he could very well be our QB.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ Yeah, it's a question that probably seemed unthinkable a month ago, but is definitely thinkable now.

My guess is that if Harbaugh is traded next offseason they'll promote Tomsula to HC and be under even more pressure to re-sign Kaepernick. Who knows if that's the right move or not, but Jed York has only been running the team for three years, and purely for the sake of his own legitimacy, I'd guess he'd be extremely averse to blowing up something successful and trying to rebuild so quickly. I'd guess he'd MUCH RATHER roll the dice on trying to do it with everyone except Harbaugh in place, proving that the team is more important that Harbaugh, and that he made the right decision in letting Harbaugh go. If it doesn't work, he's going to have to blow up anyway, so why do it preemptively?

Oddly, IMO, Harbaugh staying is really the only scenario in which they could gracefully move on from Kaepernick should they want to (him staying = "stability" despite the change, and he is after all thought to be a QB guru, and if the next guy doesn't pan out it gets blamed on Harbaugh, not Jed or Baalke).

FWIW I think there's a 90% chance that all of this (both for Harbaugh, and for Kaep) is just a manifestation of offseason doldrums, but for any 9ers fan* with nothing else to think about right now, it's DEFINITELY worth thinking about.

*Or Hawks fan, rooting for the demise of the 9ers, course.

I agree I also feel a lot of this is just the offseason making itself louder then the norm. I still do not see Kaep or Harbaugh leaving. Do you see a chance of them bringing in a Rookie QB or Vet to challenge for the starting job or only as a pure back up?

Purely as a backup. They have so many picks it wouldn't surprise me at all though if they took a QB with one their thirds just to spice things up and keep them interesting (they've been pretty unhappy with Colt McCoy in that role).

 

[Brahn]

^^^ Yeah, it's a question that probably seemed unthinkable a month ago, but is definitely thinkable now.

My guess is that if Harbaugh is traded next offseason they'll promote Tomsula to HC and be under even more pressure to re-sign Kaepernick. Who knows if that's the right move or not, but Jed York has only been running the team for three years, and purely for the sake of his own legitimacy, I'd guess he'd be extremely averse to blowing up something successful and trying to rebuild so quickly. I'd guess he'd MUCH RATHER roll the dice on trying to do it with everyone except Harbaugh in place, proving that the team is more important that Harbaugh, and that he made the right decision in letting Harbaugh go. If it doesn't work, he's going to have to blow up anyway, so why do it preemptively?

Oddly, IMO, Harbaugh staying is really the only scenario in which they could gracefully move on from Kaepernick should they want to (him staying = "stability" despite the change, and he is after all thought to be a QB guru, and if the next guy doesn't pan out it gets blamed on Harbaugh, not Jed or Baalke).

FWIW I think there's a 90% chance that all of this (both for Harbaugh, and for Kaep) is just a manifestation of offseason doldrums, but for any 9ers fan* with nothing else to think about right now, it's DEFINITELY worth thinking about.

*Or Hawks fan, rooting for the demise of the 9ers, course.

I agree I also feel a lot of this is just the offseason making itself louder then the norm. I still do not see Kaep or Harbaugh leaving. Do you see a chance of them bringing in a Rookie QB or Vet to challenge for the starting job or only as a pure back up?

Purely as a backup. They have so many picks it wouldn't surprise me at all though if they took a QB with one their thirds just to spice things up and keep them interesting (they've been pretty unhappy with Colt McCoy in that role).

Any specific QBs interest you in the draft as a Back Up QB? Boyd or McCarron? Also would you rather them take a flier on a more raw prospect with all the physical tools but may need a few years to fully develop like a Logan Thomas? I have a feeling the Hawks will try and grab a long term project to back up Wilson and Daniels.

Also thanks for the convo Popeye always good to get another perspective.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ sure thing. And great to chat with you as well.

I don't follow college ball closely enough to have a good read on prospects.

Is T-Jack definitely not back? Seems like a nice intermediary player to have while figuring out of Daniels can grow into the backup role. Can't imagine that at his age he'd find a better situation than Seattle, nor be too valuable to anyone beyond Seattle. My fear is that Seattle is way too good of a team to give Daniels the keys should Wilson go down. They could still win with Jackson, whereas unless things have changed very quickly with Daniels I'm not sure if he'd be ready yet (if he gets there -- he had some nice series' while in 4th quarter preseason mop up duty for the 9ers, but word from practice even while he was still on the squad is he had some major consistency problems while in practice).

 

[Brahn]

^^^ sure thing. And great to chat with you as well.

I don't follow college ball closely enough to have a good read on prospects.

Is T-Jack definitely not back? Seems like a nice intermediary player to have while figuring out of Daniels can grow into the backup role. Can't imagine that at his age he'd find a better situation than Seattle, nor be too valuable to anyone beyond Seattle. My fear is that Seattle is way too good of a team to give Daniels the keys should Wilson go down. They could still win with Jackson, whereas unless things have changed very quickly with Daniels I'm not sure if he'd be ready yet (if he gets there -- he had some nice series' while in 4th quarter preseason mop up duty for the 9ers, but word from practice even while he was still on the squad is he had some major consistency problems while in practice).

Not sold on Daniels as a back up yet myself. I am just going off the fact the team seems to like to hold onto vets only long enough to get a solid replacement. I would not be happy if Jackson left as I feel he can still win games with this team. With that said would not surprise me to see them get younger and cheaper knowing a pay out to Russ is due fairly soon, and I am sure they do not wish to wait and not know what the back up is capable sans Jackson. I would love to see a Thomas drafted as a QB project but that would more then likely cost Jackson or Daniels a job.

I have been interested to see if the Niners and Hawks might try and posture for a quality QB, knowing that they are both in a similar position (Although Jackson>McCoy). I would imagine these 2 teams would try and go the Patriots way of drafting QBs increasing their trade value and then shipping them off to stockpile picks.

 

[brimsalabim]

Im not a Kap fan but he should easily make equal or more than Stafford, Romo, Eli or Ryan.

Shouldn't Kaep's deal greatly exceed theirs? Jaws called Kaep potentially the greatest ever. Kaep's agent needs to demand GOAT cash. You know...Strap the cap money.

 

[Subzero717]

Im not a Kap fan but he should easily make equal or more than Stafford, Romo, Eli or Ryan.

Shouldn't Kaep's deal greatly exceed theirs? Jaws called Kaep potentially the greatest ever. Kaep's agent needs to demand GOAT cash. You know...Strap the cap money.

Maybe Kap should hire Jaws as his agent then.

Lets be real Jaws has a little Bayless in him. No pun intended. He says things for shock value. Like Manziel. Then keeping on after the initial shock. I dont know if he will or wont make it but to come out like that against a kid in that way and use his worst game to back it up just proves it. Especially after admitting he has only seen a few games. Theres a reason he was booted from MNF. Sorry to rant off topic.

 

[loafoftatupu]

I want Kaeperstank to get a big fat huge long term deal in SF.

This has to be causing some sleepless nights for Baalke. As he is right now, is Kaep worthy of the big deal? I think probably, but that is not for sure. He will likely improve, but he still hasn't shown the ability to lead his guy with a touch pass on a consistent basis.

 

[hawk45]

I definitely agree it will be harder for the Seahawks to avoid paying Wilson and we may look to lock him up a year earlier. Then again, that's a much MUCH better situation to be in. You have the ring already. You're sure that Wilson is the guy long-term.

Paying your QB finally is fine when you no longer have doubts about him. It's not as good as having him on the cheap still, but it's still not doom for your team. Doom for your team is when you are faced with paying him and are NOT sure he's the guy yet.

I don't see the Hawks franchising Wilson, not because it's politically less palatable, but because they'd prefer to lock the guy up long-term if they can, barring outrageous contract demands. And it would be difficult to get too outrageous. I mean my hope would be you can make the case that Wilson shouldn't get paid in the top-5 tier of QBs, with 1 or more rings who throw 40 passes a game (Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees), but with what Wilson does with his legs behind crappy protection, I wouldn't necessarily choke if he got close to that as long as structure was okay.

Kaep has had a lot of success as well, but it has to be scary thinking about how much of that is Harbaugh. Alex Smith was crap before Harbaugh so you wonder what Kaep does if Harbs is a question going forward. So I can see the Niners stringing things along as much as they can until that part solidifies.

 

[Subzero717]

I didnt want to start a new thread so maybe ad it develops mods can change title but, Kaps talks have started and they are starting at $18 million a year. That according to Greg Rosenthal.

 

[Laloosh]

I didnt want to start a new thread so maybe ad it develops mods can change title but, Kaps talks have started and they are starting at $18 million a year. That according to Greg Rosenthal.

Pay the guy! Make it $20M though.

 

[Marvin49]

I didnt want to start a new thread so maybe ad it develops mods can change title but, Kaps talks have started and they are starting at $18 million a year. That according to Greg Rosenthal.

Pay the guy! Make it $20M though.

LOL.

Yeah, the rumor for about a week is that they met with Kaps agents and they were asking for 18 mil per about a week ago and that the 49ers were pleased with what they heard. That was two separate reports though so not sure if that means 18 mil was what they were pleased with.

I can only think that the contract would be backloaded considering the cap is now expected to rise about 10 mil per year for the next few years. The real question is how much of that money is guaranteed.

 

[Subzero717]

Personally I think the cap should rise as it is and QB compensation should level off about where its at, even though I think its high.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I didnt want to start a new thread so maybe ad it develops mods can change title but, Kaps talks have started and they are starting at $18 million a year. That according to Greg Rosenthal.

Pay the guy! Make it $20M though.

You joke, but if Kaep get's 20M, then Russell's gonna want even more.

As much as I want Kaep to break the bank to put a hurting on SF's cap situation, I REALLY want them to keep his salary more around the 15-16M level so we can keep Russell's contract in the same range.

 

[Subzero717]

I didnt want to start a new thread so maybe ad it develops mods can change title but, Kaps talks have started and they are starting at $18 million a year. That according to Greg Rosenthal.

Pay the guy! Make it $20M though.

You joke, but if Kaep get's 20M, then Russell's gonna want even more.

As much as I want Kaep to break the bank to put a hurting on SF's cap situation, I REALLY want them to keep his salary more around the 15-16M level so we can keep Russell's contract in the same range.

So you believe that if Kap only gets 15-16 then Russell and his agent will be cool making the same even though guys like Cutler are making 18 and Romo, Flaco are making 20? That makes no sense for Russell or Kap.