Let's Get Down To It...What Side Are You On?

[CalgaryFan05]

A lot of great defenses are going to be sitting at home in the later playoff rounds. Many won't even make the playoffs.

Well, this article (largely stat-less) does confirm your point largely. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-17-defense-rankings-2021

Witness the Chiefs at the first of the 'second tier'.

So, now that I appear to be wrong about that - I still argue that the OP's question isn't as simple as ditch/extend Russ. It's part of a larger picture. I think it's about building a 'functional' offense - not with the joke of a 'block lockett and you're good' type offense that we've had, and not with the busted Adams situation at 'safety'.

I think it's about building a functional team, offense and defense. And I don't think you do that screwing up FA OR the Draft (when you have picks).

I'm still in the trade Russ camp. I know it's suicide. I got it. But at the same time, there's emotional and performance problems with the existing arrangement. It's not working, and I still think that it's easier to start over with 1 person (albeit an important one) than the whole team and coaching staff. Particularly since the coaching staff and FO aren't appearing to go anywhere.

And don't get me twisted - I don't hate Russ. If he could read some intermediate routes, and trust DK to throw into some double coverage - even maybe picking up the PI if he doesn't complete the catch - I think we might be having a different conversation. He's not 20. He's not gonna 'get over it'. Russ is what he is at this point - a dude who used to be able to run himself out of bad decisions/situations.

 

[John63]

A lot of great defenses are going to be sitting at home in the later playoff rounds. Many won't even make the playoffs.

Well, this article (largely stat-less) does confirm your point largely. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-17-defense-rankings-2021

Witness the Chiefs at the first of the 'second tier'.

So, now that I appear to be wrong about that - I still argue that the OP's question isn't as simple as ditch/extend Russ. It's part of a larger picture. I think it's about building a 'functional' offense - not with the joke of a 'block lockett and you're good' type offense that we've had, and not with the busted Adams situation at 'safety'.

I think it's about building a functional team, offense and defense. And I don't think you do that screwing up FA OR the Draft (when you have picks).

I'm still in the trade Russ camp. I know it's suicide. I got it. But at the same time, there's emotional and performance problems with the existing arrangement. It's not working, and I still think that it's easier to start over with 1 person (albeit an important one) than the whole team and coaching staff. Particularly since the coaching staff and FO aren't appearing to go anywhere.

And don't get me twisted - I don't hate Russ. If he could read some intermediate routes, and trust DK to throw into some double coverage - even maybe picking up the PI if he doesn't complete the catch - I think we might be having a different conversation. He's not 20. He's not gonna 'get over it'. Russ is what he is at this point - a dude who used to be able to run himself out of bad decisions/situations.

If what you say in our last paragraph were true I would agree but the facts that have been shown on this forum show otherwise.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Technically success in the playoffs depends on matchups, as we are aware every time we freaking draw the Rams as our opponent in a potential playoff scenario.

But it begs the question, if you have the ability to put together one of the top defenses in the league - and know for sure it will be a top 10 (or even top 5!) defense...is that enough to give you a strong chance of playoff success?

Maybe not.

If you can do the same thing with the team for a top running/rushing offense?

Maybe not.

What about same thing for a passing offense?

Probably so. Certainly, if you are Top 5 and have anything close to even average defense.


So if a great rushing offense or great defense is not really a good guarantee of playoff success, which appears to be the goal...

Why are we trying to build our team around those 2 things?


If we accomplish them both, does it even pay off?
(Ask the Ravens this question)

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Technically success in the playoffs depends on matchups, as we are aware every time we freaking draw the Rams as our opponent in a potential playoff scenario.

But it begs the question, if you have the ability to put together one of the top defenses in the league - and know for sure it will be a top 10 (or even top 5!) defense...is that enough to give you a strong chance of playoff success?

Maybe not.

If you can do the same thing with the team for a top running/rushing offense?

Maybe not.

What about same thing for a passing offense?

Probably so. Certainly, if you are Top 5 and have anything close to even average defense.


So if a great rushing offense or great defense is not really a good guarantee of playoff success, which appears to be the goal...

Why are we trying to build our team around those 2 things?


If we accomplish them both, does it even pay off?
(Ask the Ravens this question)

Well. So, you've made some good points. I certainly don't have enough data on the running/rushing offenses and/or passing defences to form an intelligent reply to those two questions.

What you have ******* done is made me question a few things that I kinda held as core tenents. I know that sounds epic, but, well - you've managed to do that.

I'm going to STFU #2, and go do some research over a few days. I still think that a one-dimensional run-less game is not balanced. I do think that a strong running game is necessary for playoff presence/longevity. The pass? I'm not sure if this isn't a bit self-fulfilling - but I'm curious about that too.

Thanks - I've got some thinking to do, and I'll return to this thread if I come up with something useful/relevant.

The one final comment for now that I'd leave with - which really has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with Aros' original question: "GETTING to the playoffs is different than WINNING in the playoffs.". Ask the CFL about that. Up in the northern hinterland here pretty much everyone gets into the playoffs.

And just for confirmation, I'm still 'trade'.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Maybe dd,

But to answer the trade question - you almost have to answer the question on whether building a team around defense and rushing offense is even reasonably connected to any kind of consistent playoff success.

Because if you find that passing offense is a key component of success, then trading your QB that has demonstrated in the past that he could be the QB of a prolific passing offense, seems fraught with peril.

Just arbitrarily trading a piece of your team because it annoys you could be a problem, if that piece could be the keystone in any potential success in the playoffs you could have.

So it is completely relevant to the trade question.

It would make no sense to journey down another path if that path had nothing to do with reaching the goal, right?

 

[chris98251]

Bills had a great defense, Rams have a very good defense,49ers have a good defense, Chiefs don't, but their offense is a level higher than everyone else right now, there are outlier years for things like this.

I would still believe that defense wins championships, we just have a bunch of teams with offenses that don't match what the Chiefs have this year, and it's not over yet anyway. Denver got to the Super Bowl with the best offense all time as they were saying and then what happened. The DC on the other side can change what they do and that offense can look pedestrian in a given moment.

 

[BASF]

I know that I have been critical of Wilson, but he is definitely a keep. He doesn't want to run the offense the way it is being called, but he is still more effective than most quarterbacks ever. The fact is that the NFL has decided to follow baseball's example and change the rules to recover fans that have left. Most people want to watch the arena football version of the NFL nowadays. They want the scoring and no matter how much the game has to be changed to cater to these people, the NFL has and will continue to do it. It is criminal what has been done to the game in the desire to get more casual fans, but it isn't going to change for a while.

As far as what wins in the playoffs, it boils down to what it has always boiled down to, the team that is playing the best football in all three phases at the time is the one who wins. The freaking Giants got seriously hot twice in the playoffs with their defensive line stepping up and it got them two championships.

 

[AubHawk71]

I'm on the side of the Seahawks.

But honestly, Pete's tortoise/hare style of play needs someone like Marshawn, who while fast, was basically a bulldozer that everything else was built around, and having RW and the LOB made them prit near unstoppable.

My beef with PC is that you need to find a balance of dynamics and consistency, and the last few seasons seems like a lot of plodding and then changing the horse midstream when it doesn't work out.

Bottom line: I couldn't see the Hawks winning any of the games last weekend, (Edit: Maybe GB who we somehow beat most of the time, and inexplicably phoned it in against SF) there is no way that the current iteration of PC/RW could keep up. If Penny can continue to crush it with SEA, then maybe the old magic will come back. PC wants to run the ball more. Our defense isn't terrible, but lacking big plays for the most part (aside from Diggs).

 

[TwistedHusky]

The big question is whether running the ball, and focusing at being good at it, puts you at a disadvantage in today's NFL.

It now might. The 49ers are the counterargument but are they an exception?

I understand the value of running the ball, I grew up a Husky fan raised on great RBs and fantastic defense.

But it certainly looks like you swim against the current when you try to win that way.

It makes sense if you are the Browns, because you don't have the pieces to win any other way.

Or the Titans, because you don't have a great QB but you have one of the best RBs in the game. (There is your Marshawn)

And neither of those teams are really relevant. Sure, they can make it into the playoffs maybe win a playoff game. But that is about it. Nobody seriously expects them to make any kind of run.

Can you win the SB with a great RB and great defense? Not sure anymore.

Can you even expect to make the playoffs if you are great at that? (doubtful unless you have a great offense...even a good offense isn't enough).

You win with offense in this league based on the #s the past few years. Is the 49er success more an outlier or an indication of a shift back from this? No idea, but so far, great defense and great run game seems to guarantee you nothing.

If you are looking to trade the star QB, and rebuild around those 2 things, it makes sense to ask if that gets you any expectation of success even if you accomplish that rebuild.

 

[AubHawk71]

I don't think that running the ball, as opposed to passing, works better either way, it's all about the hot hand. If Penny gets on a heater, then by all means.

But maybe PC's style of "we're going to do this come hell or high water"...i dunno. I've said it before, you can't have three game plans every week, you just hope to get all the pieces moving in tandem and hope for the best. Run the ball. Defense. Fine. But trying to outlast the league when things are trending more dynamic. Hmm.

DK is the perfect example. He's almost a square peg in the PC scheme, which isn't a slag on either of them. But why not use him more? Pete doesn't like to throw the ball. Why then, have an insanely talented WR? As a decoy? EH.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Really>?

Because if you have a great RB, getting 5 yards a carry and it is 2 and 5?

If your guy makes a mistake, that 10 yd holding penalty makes it 2nd and 15. You can run for 5-6 then on a good run but now you have to convert 3rd and 10.

And if the ref makes a mistake calling an iffy holding penalty even though it was a good block? Same thing.

A mistake kills your drive most of the time.



Now same thing with holding on a passing team? People come back from 2 & 15 all the time.



What about if the ref makes a mistake on defense?

You sack the QB twice and it is now 3rd and 30. But next round they call a ridiculous roughing call or worse, just a 5 yd illegal contact that turns a 30 yd deficit into a 1st down.

All because a ref either made a mistake or made an iffy call. Or because your defender legit made a mistake and lightly grazed the helmet of the QB (trying to block the ball) or illegal contact with the WR who might have even been trying to run a pick.

You really think passing does not have advantages over running the ball just in how the rules are enforced and the cost of someone making a mistake? Because everyone makes mistakes but right now it is much easier to overcome mistakes (by the players, ref, coaching, etc.) passing than running.

 

[John63]

I'm on the side of the Seahawks.

But honestly, Pete's tortoise/hare style of play needs someone like Marshawn, who while fast, was basically a bulldozer that everything else was built around, and having RW and the LOB made them prit near unstoppable.

My beef with PC is that you need to find a balance of dynamics and consistency, and the last few seasons seems like a lot of plodding and then changing the horse midstream when it doesn't work out.

Bottom line: I couldn't see the Hawks winning any of the games last weekend, (Edit: Maybe GB who we somehow beat most of the time, and inexplicably phoned it in against SF) there is no way that the current iteration of PC/RW could keep up. If Penny can continue to crush it with SEA, then maybe the old magic will come back. PC wants to run the ball more. Our defense isn't terrible, but lacking big plays for the most part (aside from Diggs).

The problem you have with PC whole system is he has run it every time he has been a HC and was sub 500 till Wilson.. Wilson is not an avg Qb. So the whole premise of a great run game, and great defense and game manager had not worked.

Game managers don't have come from behind wins
Game managers are not top 10 in anything

in 2012 Wilson had 4 comeback wins in the 4th qtr and 1 in the playoffs(Should have had 2 but our defense could not hold a lead with 20 seconds to go). Without those 4 we don't make the playoffs. That year Wilson was top 5 in passer rating, QBR, YPA and top 10 in complt% and TDs. With a game manager, we don't make the playoffs.

in 2013 Wilson had 4 comeback OT victories and 1 in the playoffs. Wilson was a top 10 in passer rating, QBR, TDs, and top 5 in YPA. Again a game manager does not do that.


I can go on the reality is PCs system will not work with just a game manager. You need more, you need more than avg.
You need very good to great. Not many of those around or easy to find.

I mean let's think about this is a year where Wilson missed 3 games and plalyed hurt for many more he still was still top 5 in YPA, Passer rating, and still top 10 in Tds, QBR, and td/int ratio and also 1 4th qtr/OT victory

IN 2020 which everyone says was a down year for Wilson, he was still top 10 in QBR, Passer rating, Coplt%, and top 5 in tds, and td/int ratio and had 3 4th qtr/OT victories.

So as PCs history in the NFL has proven his system does not work with just a game manager you need a lot more.

 

[toffee]

I'm on the side of the Seahawks.

But honestly, Pete's tortoise/hare style of play needs someone like Marshawn, who while fast, was basically a bulldozer that everything else was built around, and having RW and the LOB made them prit near unstoppable.

My beef with PC is that you need to find a balance of dynamics and consistency, and the last few seasons seems like a lot of plodding and then changing the horse midstream when it doesn't work out.

Bottom line: I couldn't see the Hawks winning any of the games last weekend, (Edit: Maybe GB who we somehow beat most of the time, and inexplicably phoned it in against SF) there is no way that the current iteration of PC/RW could keep up. If Penny can continue to crush it with SEA, then maybe the old magic will come back. PC wants to run the ball more. Our defense isn't terrible, but lacking big plays for the most part (aside from Diggs).

The problem you have with PC whole system is he has run it every time he has been a HC and was sub 500 till Wilson.. Wilson is not an avg Qb. So the whole premise of a great run game, and great defense and game manager had not worked.

Game managers don't have come from behind wins
Game managers are not top 10 in anything

in 2012 Wilson had 4 comeback wins in the 4th qtr and 1 in the playoffs(Should have had 2 but our defense could not hold a lead with 20 seconds to go). Without those 4 we don't make the playoffs. That year Wilson was top 5 in passer rating, QBR, YPA and top 10 in complt% and TDs. With a game manager, we don't make the playoffs.

in 2013 Wilson had 4 comeback OT victories and 1 in the playoffs. Wilson was a top 10 in passer rating, QBR, TDs, and top 5 in YPA. Again a game manager does not do that.


I can go on the reality is PCs system will not work with just a game manager. You need more, you need more than avg.
You need very good to great. Not many of those around or easy to find.

I mean let's think about this is a year where Wilson missed 3 games and plalyed hurt for many more he still was still top 5 in YPA, Passer rating, and still top 10 in Tds, QBR, and td/int ratio and also 1 4th qtr/OT victory

IN 2020 which everyone says was a down year for Wilson, he was still top 10 in QBR, Passer rating, Coplt%, and top 5 in tds, and td/int ratio and had 3 4th qtr/OT victories.

So as PCs history in the NFL has proven his system does not work with just a game manager you need a lot more.

It takes an elite game manager, that's what it takes.

 

[John63]

I'm on the side of the Seahawks.

But honestly, Pete's tortoise/hare style of play needs someone like Marshawn, who while fast, was basically a bulldozer that everything else was built around, and having RW and the LOB made them prit near unstoppable.

My beef with PC is that you need to find a balance of dynamics and consistency, and the last few seasons seems like a lot of plodding and then changing the horse midstream when it doesn't work out.

Bottom line: I couldn't see the Hawks winning any of the games last weekend, (Edit: Maybe GB who we somehow beat most of the time, and inexplicably phoned it in against SF) there is no way that the current iteration of PC/RW could keep up. If Penny can continue to crush it with SEA, then maybe the old magic will come back. PC wants to run the ball more. Our defense isn't terrible, but lacking big plays for the most part (aside from Diggs).

The problem you have with PC whole system is he has run it every time he has been a HC and was sub 500 till Wilson.. Wilson is not an avg Qb. So the whole premise of a great run game, and great defense and game manager had not worked.

Game managers don't have come from behind wins
Game managers are not top 10 in anything

in 2012 Wilson had 4 comeback wins in the 4th qtr and 1 in the playoffs(Should have had 2 but our defense could not hold a lead with 20 seconds to go). Without those 4 we don't make the playoffs. That year Wilson was top 5 in passer rating, QBR, YPA and top 10 in complt% and TDs. With a game manager, we don't make the playoffs.

in 2013 Wilson had 4 comeback OT victories and 1 in the playoffs. Wilson was a top 10 in passer rating, QBR, TDs, and top 5 in YPA. Again a game manager does not do that.


I can go on the reality is PCs system will not work with just a game manager. You need more, you need more than avg.
You need very good to great. Not many of those around or easy to find.

I mean let's think about this is a year where Wilson missed 3 games and plalyed hurt for many more he still was still top 5 in YPA, Passer rating, and still top 10 in Tds, QBR, and td/int ratio and also 1 4th qtr/OT victory

IN 2020 which everyone says was a down year for Wilson, he was still top 10 in QBR, Passer rating, Coplt%, and top 5 in tds, and td/int ratio and had 3 4th qtr/OT victories.

So as PCs history in the NFL has proven his system does not work with just a game manager you need a lot more.

It takes an elite game manager, that's what it takes.

LOl again the problem is there are not many of them either.

 

[AubHawk71]

Really>?

Because if you have a great RB, getting 5 yards a carry and it is 2 and 5?

If your guy makes a mistake, that 10 yd holding penalty makes it 2nd and 15. You can run for 5-6 then on a good run but now you have to convert 3rd and 10.

And if the ref makes a mistake calling an iffy holding penalty even though it was a good block? Same thing.

A mistake kills your drive most of the time.



Now same thing with holding on a passing team? People come back from 2 & 15 all the time.



What about if the ref makes a mistake on defense?

You sack the QB twice and it is now 3rd and 30. But next round they call a ridiculous roughing call or worse, just a 5 yd illegal contact that turns a 30 yd deficit into a 1st down.

All because a ref either made a mistake or made an iffy call. Or because your defender legit made a mistake and lightly grazed the helmet of the QB (trying to block the ball) or illegal contact with the WR who might have even been trying to run a pick.

You really think passing does not have advantages over running the ball just in how the rules are enforced and the cost of someone making a mistake? Because everyone makes mistakes but right now it is much easier to overcome mistakes (by the players, ref, coaching, etc.) passing than running.

I honestly don't understand how you got to the refs making bad calls on this situation. Penny was avg 8 yards per carry towards the end of the season, and had some big double digit runs that made a huge difference. He moved the ball. The refs are going to call it back? I don't understand.

 

[TwistedHusky]

No RB is going to get 8 yds a carry consistently.

This isn't about Penny.

It is a simple observation that if you have a run-oriented defense and someone makes a mistake leading to a holding call - it greatly increases the chance of shutting the drive down. Almost certainly if you don't have a good QB that can convert that 3rd & 10 when everyone knows you are passing.

And yes, if they OL makes a mistake and gets caught holding they move it back. If the OL doesn't make a mistake and the refs make a mistake instead by calling holding? It still gets called back because of the penalty.

On the other hand, if you have a passing-oriented offense and someone makes a mistake (that someone can also be a ref) then you probably are going to have a much easier time recovering.

The rules favor passing to running so much that analytics considers a passing down 3x more valuable a running down.

Are you trying to say you do not believe that the rules favor passing to running?