Mariners season record prediction thread *UPDATE*

[FearTheBeak]

92 and a postseason. We're due.

 

[TwistedHusky]

"........ and Howard Lincoln will still be a clueless doofus."

He isn't clueless.

The failure to generate results is by intent. They succeed just enough to keep interest intact, nothing more.

As is their continued activity to block the growth/opportunity for new sports franchises in the region.

 

[Sports Hernia]

"........ and Howard Lincoln will still be a clueless doofus."

He isn't clueless.

The failure to generate results is by intent. They succeed just enough to keep interest intact, nothing more.

As is their continued activity to block the growth/opportunity for new sports franchises in the region.

I beg to differ.
Howard like most CEO's is very short-sighted.
Like I said in my previous post if the Mariners win, you don't need to worry about "competition".

In late 1980's early 90's worked for a small business that was always worrying and focused on what his nearest competitor was doing, I mean obsessed by it. Instead of focusing on his business, his customers, and his reputation, he was worried about the other guy while neglecting his business. He eventually went belly up after his mommies money ran out.

Decades later I part timed for his competitor, and asked if he ever wondered what the other guy was doing, he simply said "no."
I asked him why not and he said "If I run my business right, treat my customers well, give them good value for what they are paying for, I have happy customers, that will keep coming back, and I don't have to worry about what some guy down the road is doing."

That train of thought doesn't register with the "Howard Lincoln types" of the world, Sadly.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Maybe, but I know this - roughly 4-5 years ago an associate of mine shared a story about the Mariners - given one of my software contacts was going to get a startup I was advising an in with them. He was fairly connected, having worked with Guy Kawasaki and was building AI & analytics engine which his software company decided to use for scouting.

(Now it had already been used to scout QBs for example the #1 quality we found that a college QB had that tended to indicate success in the pros was 4th quarter comebacks against top 25 teams...even given the subjective nature of how a team gets rated #25 and that good teams tend to have less comebacks in general. The # was % success rate on comebacks in that time period vs # of chances. But I digress...)

His analytics engine could reliably identify key characteristics that players that contribute in playoff runs tend to have, and combined with some of the objective data weighing - it was tremendously successful at taking blind submissions and identifying the star players in the mix based on their college #s. The pitch was the Mariners would be able to identify the kinds of players that would lead to playoff runs.

The problem? The Mariners DID NOT WANT to go to the playoffs. Their goal was to be the top 10 in attendance, but did not want to regularly get too far in the playoffs because players became more visible and would be harder to resign - as they became visible (The Seahawks can tell you about this issue now but I think they would still prefer having gotten the SB). Additionally, performance in the playoffs mattered for arbitration. And they were very clear WHY.

Clearly, I don't think he ended up moving forward.

Either way, the Mariners didn't want to win. Maybe they do now, but I really, really doubt it. People at the top of an organization do not stay that long without delivering results. So if the Mariners never produce on the field, you have to ask yourself what the results they ARE producing that allow them to be so steadfastly supported by the organization.

The experiences shared with me, from sources I trust, suggest onfield performance is not at all a KPI for success for the organization. They want tickets sold, seats filled - and don't care how it happens.

Be aware, dancing groundskeepers are cheaper than closers.....

 

[pehawk]

Maybe, but I know this - roughly 4-5 years ago an associate of mine shared a story about the Mariners - given one of my software contacts was going to get a startup I was advising an in with them. He was fairly connected, having worked with Guy Kawasaki and was building AI & analytics engine which his software company decided to use for scouting.

(Now it had already been used to scout QBs for example the #1 quality we found that a college QB had that tended to indicate success in the pros was 4th quarter comebacks against top 25 teams...even given the subjective nature of how a team gets rated #25 and that good teams tend to have less comebacks in general. The # was % success rate on comebacks in that time period vs # of chances. But I digress...)

His analytics engine could reliably identify key characteristics that players that contribute in playoff runs tend to have, and combined with some of the objective data weighing - it was tremendously successful at taking blind submissions and identifying the star players in the mix based on their college #s. The pitch was the Mariners would be able to identify the kinds of players that would lead to playoff runs.

The problem? The Mariners DID NOT WANT to go to the playoffs. Their goal was to be the top 10 in attendance, but did not want to regularly get too far in the playoffs because players became more visible and would be harder to resign - as they became visible (The Seahawks can tell you about this issue now but I think they would still prefer having gotten the SB). Additionally, performance in the playoffs mattered for arbitration. And they were very clear WHY.

Clearly, I don't think he ended up moving forward.

Either way, the Mariners didn't want to win. Maybe they do now, but I really, really doubt it. People at the top of an organization do not stay that long without delivering results. So if the Mariners never produce on the field, you have to ask yourself what the results they ARE producing that allow them to be so steadfastly supported by the organization.

The experiences shared with me, from sources I trust, suggest onfield performance is not at all a KPI for success for the organization. They want tickets sold, seats filled - and don't care how it happens.

Be aware, dancing groundskeepers are cheaper than closers.....

Great post and 100% true. I don't get an incompetence vibe from Mariners ownership, more just a non baseball vibe. Cano was signed only because the Seahawks won the SB and they needed to not get lost in all our admiration. It was obvious.

Everything they do is to just keep enough interest. That's it. Nothing more or less. They're the model for Jed in the Bay.

 

[Atradees]

90 wins if the pitching holds up. The offense will definitely be better.

 

[Uncle Si]

Great post and 100% true. I don't get an incompetence vibe from Mariners ownership, more just a non baseball vibe. Cano was signed only because the Seahawks won the SB and they needed to not get lost in all our admiration. It was obvious.

Everything they do is to just keep enough interest. That's it. Nothing more or less. They're the model for Jed in the Bay.

240 million over 10 years just to hold casual fan interest?

Imagine if we had ran Lynch from a yard out. M's may have Cespedes.

I get what TH is saying. I wouldn't go as far as saying the M's dont "want" to win. I do believe they are only willing to go so far to do so as it may contradict other interests.

That said, I think they have done almost everything they could have done this off season and am excited for Opening Day.

 

[SeatownJay]

These are still the Mariners. I say 75 wins.

 

[TwistedHusky]

"I get what TH is saying. I wouldn't go as far as saying the M's dont "want" to win. I do believe they are only willing to go so far to do so as it may contradict other interests."

You missed the part where I shared that they felt that reaching the playoffs increased their costs. It was counter to their interests, in fact, one of their goals was to ID what the minimum amount of playoff trips needed to be, and at what intervals, in order to keep ticket sales high.

However, another issue comes forward. Sports is filled with tremendously intelligent people spending massive amounts of money to arrive at the same goal. And, in some respects, it is a zero sum game. Wins on one side translate to losses on the other.

The question needs to be asked, just how you can expect great results EVER from an organization that wants to actively avoid on field success but for in bits & spurts? There are at least a handful, if not more, organizations in the same sport fighting for scarce wins because winning is part of their organizational goals - so how is an organization expected to produce against that when it does not even try to win?

Sports is hard.

Even teams that put everything on the table and go 100% all in, sometimes don't reach don't reach the objective. But the Mariners, who are almost ambivalent about on-field success, might somehow stumble into it? And if they did, considering the organization wants to avoid that visibility - wouldn't the organization then pull back? Especially considering the costs it has to pay just to look like it cares about winning?

Expecting the Mariners to win anything, is expecting them to luck into achievement - to accidentally stumble forward at a time a lot of other teams are giving their all to actually achieve. It isn't reasonable or rational to expect. And the last 20 years of the Mariners, at a minimum, are a pretty solid track record of what you will get.

Franchises rarely just "start" winning with the same owner, the Seahawks did once they changed ownership. The Sonics stopped winning once they changed ownership. The Mariners, with the same ownership, lost repeatedly, got better & tasted winning for a while - did not like it, and have actively avoided it since.

 

[Uncle Si]

I didn't miss anything. I just don't buy it to the level you are plying it. Not trying to win is a point you're trying to sell. Sorry, I don't see it.

The team itself is set up to win. They have made changes to their staff and lineup to do so. DiPuto is not an accident. Felix's extension, Cruz, Cano, resigning Seager, are not coincidences. They very well could succeed regardless of what you believe the intentions of the ownership are.

I do not think the M's would go much further than the rather major investment they have made in the squad. They were 11th in salary last year, are 11th this year. By all stretch of logic the team should compete. You want to shout that they are purposefully losing (avoiding success) while maintaining an image of competitiveness. I think that's just hyperbolic assumption. They have a level of which they are willing to push the team. Many franchises have succeeded under a similar philosophy. Your 2015 baseball playoffs are a prime example. One playoff team was in the top 10 in salary. 2 were in the bottom 10.

Seattle has every advantage that those teams had, and maybe some more. Again, I don't see them stretching their salary beyond that. However, that's not trying to lose or avoiding winning.

to each his own. I'll watch the games without you.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Uncle Si, "NET hottie"??

WTF? How low have the standards gotten here?



I jest. I agree with you that it isn't 'purposeful mediocrity' but no surprise because I don't agree with TH's assertion that trading Max Unger was the sole reason the Hawks didn't win the Super Bowl this past season either. But to each their own. I do agree with Hernia's rant about Lincoln though. My hope is that he leaves DiPoto alone and he's successful in his approach.

 

[Uncle Si]

Uncle Si, "NET hottie"??

WTF? How low have the standards gotten here?



I jest. I agree with you that it isn't 'purposeful mediocrity' but no surprise because I don't agree with TH's assertion that trading Max Unger was the sole reason the Hawks didn't win the Super Bowl this past season either. But to each their own. I do agree with Hernia's rant about Lincoln though. My hope is that he leaves DiPoto alone and he's successful in his approach.

I have the calves of an ancient Greek marathoner and a jaw line chiseled by the Roman Gods themselves.

M's operations are probably the worst in the city's history of franchises. I don't think they are avoiding wnning however.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Maybe, but I know this - roughly 4-5 years ago an associate of mine shared a story about the Mariners - given one of my software contacts was going to get a startup I was advising an in with them. He was fairly connected, having worked with Guy Kawasaki and was building AI & analytics engine which his software company decided to use for scouting.

(Now it had already been used to scout QBs for example the #1 quality we found that a college QB had that tended to indicate success in the pros was 4th quarter comebacks against top 25 teams...even given the subjective nature of how a team gets rated #25 and that good teams tend to have less comebacks in general. The # was % success rate on comebacks in that time period vs # of chances. But I digress...)

His analytics engine could reliably identify key characteristics that players that contribute in playoff runs tend to have, and combined with some of the objective data weighing - it was tremendously successful at taking blind submissions and identifying the star players in the mix based on their college #s. The pitch was the Mariners would be able to identify the kinds of players that would lead to playoff runs.

The problem? The Mariners DID NOT WANT to go to the playoffs. Their goal was to be the top 10 in attendance, but did not want to regularly get too far in the playoffs because players became more visible and would be harder to resign - as they became visible (The Seahawks can tell you about this issue now but I think they would still prefer having gotten the SB). Additionally, performance in the playoffs mattered for arbitration. And they were very clear WHY.

Clearly, I don't think he ended up moving forward.

Either way, the Mariners didn't want to win. Maybe they do now, but I really, really doubt it. People at the top of an organization do not stay that long without delivering results. So if the Mariners never produce on the field, you have to ask yourself what the results they ARE producing that allow them to be so steadfastly supported by the organization.

The experiences shared with me, from sources I trust, suggest onfield performance is not at all a KPI for success for the organization. They want tickets sold, seats filled - and don't care how it happens.

Be aware, dancing groundskeepers are cheaper than closers.....

Great post and 100% true. I don't get an incompetence vibe from Mariners ownership, more just a non baseball vibe. Cano was signed only because the Seahawks won the SB and they needed to not get lost in all our admiration. It was obvious.

Everything they do is to just keep enough interest. That's it. Nothing more or less. They're the model for Jed in the Bay.

Spot on!

 

[IndyHawk]

They got rid of Montero,that ought to be good for 5 more wins alone..90-72

 

[Atradees]

Yes , but they sent down the Irish guy. Even.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

My usual prediction of 79 stands until that snake called Howard Lincoln is not only fired, but dead and buried. How somebody so clueless about professional sports and in particular MLB gets to run a franchise is beyond me. Especially since I know the punk personally and have talked baseball and the Mariners position in it face to face.

Hey, here's a hint...take a hint from the Royals and Glass given both teams are at the same market level and start drafting actual players. Also do it like St. Louis and draft right while coaching up right. It sickens me how we are wasting our current talent.


At least I have TWO elite teams in this State and ONE team 15 minutes away that I can't watch on television. I suppose that is still better than the joke you guys have to endure.

Then again you would have to pay me serious money to watch a game at The K if it's beyond April. St. Louis I go to just because that is a pure baseball town no pass go and no $200.

Kansas City is very similar to Seattle in the fact they are Football towns even though they have history of other sports being elite and conquering the pinnacle.

 

[hawker84]

95 - this is the year the Mariners become relevant again in the AL West. Post season here we come.

 

[bevellisthedevil]

81 wins and the bullpen will blow 81 games.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

FWIW, most sportsbooks have the M's season win total at 82 wins.

 

[Hasselbeck]

FWIW, most sportsbooks have the M's season win total at 82 wins.

The under has never been so easy.

Except you know, when you took the under for last years team.