May we Please?

[w00t]

I don't care what anyone says but... he made 1 of the most CRUCIAL decisions in the playoffs. He went with his INSTINCTS and told Carroll that he couldn't make that field goal vs the whiners on 4th down. Even Russell Wilson was caught on camera sayin "C'MON MAN WE NEED TO KICK THAT". Not kicking that FG against the wind resulted in a RW3 to Chop Chop TD that put us ahead.

 

[volsunghawk]

Kickers are important in the sense that they play an important role in many games, but the difference between the 5th best and 25th best kicker in the league is minimal. There are plenty of good enough kickers out there that can be had for the minimum.

I realize you're probably exaggerating somewhat, but your statement and others like it in this thread got me curious. So I looked up the differences in stats between the two guys tied for 5th (Folk and Hauschka) and the two guys tied for 26th (Hartley and Succop). No one was in 25th place because of ties.

See the image I've attached for the full stats. I bolded some key ones and made them a larger font so that they're easier to spot in the image.

Hauschka scored 11 FGs more than Hartley and Succop. That's 33 points spread over the regular season. His percentage of FGs made was 15 percentage points higher than Succop and 21 percentage points higher than Hartley. All four had long kicks between 51-55 yards (inclusive). Folk was the only one who avoided having a kick blocked.

Steven also came in second in number of XP attempts at 44. Succop had the most with 52. All four made 100% of their XP attempts, so it's pretty much a wash there.

My takeaway? There is definitely a difference between top and bottom ranked kickers. 33 total points is nothing to sneeze at.

Here's the thing, though. Go back and check how Hauschka and Folk were ranked last year. Then check their rankings for the year before. Check other kickers, too. You'll find plenty of variation in whose names appear at the top from year to year. Just because a guy was top 5 one season doesn't mean he'll be there the following year. While this is true of most positions, it's especially a hallmark of the kicker position. Elite doesn't mean as much if it's not sustainable over the life of the contract.

 

[jewhawk]

Kickers are important in the sense that they play an important role in many games, but the difference between the 5th best and 25th best kicker in the league is minimal. There are plenty of good enough kickers out there that can be had for the minimum.

I realize you're probably exaggerating somewhat, but your statement and others like it in this thread got me curious. So I looked up the differences in stats between the two guys tied for 5th (Folk and Hauschka) and the two guys tied for 26th (Hartley and Succop). No one was in 25th place because of ties.

See the image I've attached for the full stats. I bolded some key ones and made them a larger font so that they're easier to spot in the image.

Hauschka scored 11 FGs more than Hartley and Succop. That's 33 points spread over the regular season. His percentage of FGs made was 15 percentage points higher than Succop and 21 percentage points higher than Hartley. All four had long kicks between 51-55 yards (inclusive). Folk was the only one who avoided having a kick blocked.

Steven also came in second in number of XP attempts at 44. Succop had the most with 52. All four made 100% of their XP attempts, so it's pretty much a wash there.

My takeaway? There is definitely a difference between top and bottom ranked kickers. 33 total points is nothing to sneeze at.

In a single season, sure, the top kickers will be quite a bit better than the bottom ones, but there's so much variance in field goal kicking that you can't really predict who the best kickers (based on FG%) will be in a single season. Every NFL caliber kicker can be expected to make 80-85% (a number that is rising league-wide in recent years) of his FGs and will have some years above that and some years below. Of the kickers on your chart, Folk is 80.3% in his career, Hauschka is 86.0%, Succop is 81.0%, and Hartley is 81.2%. Hauschka had a great year and is one of the league's better kickers, but if you're expecting him to hit 94.3% of his FGs every year it's not going to happen.

Total FGs made and XP stats don't mean anything to me. Total FGs have more to do with the offense than the kicker, and missed XPs are usually the snapper or holder's fault, not the kicker's.

These are the top 10 kickers based on FG% the last three seasons:

2013:
1. Matt Prater 96.2%
2. Steven Hauschka 94.3%
3. Shaun Suisham 93.8%
4. Dan Bailey 93.3%
5. Greg Zuerlein 92.9%
t6. Stephen Gostkowski 92.7%
t6. Justin Tucker 92.7%
8. Josh Scobee 92.0%
9. Nick Novak 91.9%
10. Dan Carpenter 91.7%

2012:
1. Kai Forbath 94.4%
t2. Dan Bailey 93.5%
t2. Phil Dawson 93.5%
4. Blair Walsh 92.1%
5. Josh Brown 91.7%
6. Sebastian Janikowski 91.2%
7. Justin Tucker 90.9%
8. Shaun Suisham 90.3%
9. Nick Novak 90.0%
10. Jay Feely 89.3%

2011:
1. Matt Bryant 93.1%
2. Connor Barth 92.9%
3. Josh Scobee 92.0%
4. Rob Bironas 90.6%
5. Alex Henery 88.9%
6. Sebastian Janikowski 88.6%
7. Robbie Gould 87.5%
8. Mike Nugent 86.8%
9. Rian Lindell 86.7%
10. Dan Bailey 86.5%

The only name on all three lists is Dan Bailey, who has the luxury of kicking in a dome. Had I extended the lists, Hauschka would have been t12th in 2012 and 17th in 2011. He's a good kicker and I wouldn't mind having him back, but I wouldn't spend much more than $1M on any kicker, and I definitely wouldn't ever call it a priority to lock up a kicker.

 

[two dog]

Did you see that dude from the Giants miss all those field goals in seattle a few years ago ?
How do you suppose they 'feelyed' about the importance of the kicker ?

 

[QuahHawk]

Only way I'll be content it we dont resing Hauska is if we let Tate walk and draft a 6'2+ WR in the 1st or 2nd to improve our redzone efficiency. I'd also be happy to sign Finely as he's a big athletic guy who is also a redzone threat.

Our D is so good that we are probably better off punting and downing inside the 5 than kicking a 40yd+ FG. Not worried about it at all.

Its the kickoffs that need to be touchbacks for me to really complain.

 

[SeaHawk80]

Considering the division we are in, and the number of tight games we can expect within it next year with the continued improvement of St. Louis and AZ. I would say the kicker is very important. But 3 mil a year is not affordable. The fat kid from WSU comes out this year and he has a cannon for a leg. Kicked a 63 yarder, outside, in Pulman, in November. That is worth a pick and his lower salary will be appreciated. Thanks Housk-money but have a nice day, some place else

 

[Barthawk]

as long as roger keeps messing with the rules i wouldn't invest long term in a kicker but thats just me.

games against crap teams like houston and tampa shoudln't have come down to his foot anyways.

Really? Making three FGs in the horrible weather in the Playoffs versus the Saints.. and being 3-3 in the NFCCG is money.. Haushka is the best kicker in Franchise history, no misses in the playoffs and it 91-101 in his career with Seattle with 6 of those misses beyond 50 yds and one block.

He is worth Nick Folk money. We are a defensive team and having a reliable kicker wins games. High powered offenses can get away with an average kicker..

 

[sc85sis]

Considering the division we are in, and the number of tight games we can expect within it next year with the continued improvement of St. Louis and AZ. I would say the kicker is very important. But 3 mil a year is not affordable. The fat kid from WSU comes out this year and he has a cannon for a leg. Kicked a 63 yarder, outside, in Pulman, in November. That is worth a pick and his lower salary will be appreciated. Thanks Housk-money but have a nice day, some place else

How accurate is he? It's great that he has a big leg, but I'll take overall accuracy over the occasional bomb every time.

 

[chrispy]

I think part of the discussion on the 33 points over the season has to be the attempts too. Part of the reason Haushka and Folk scored more was because they attempted more.

The difference between Folk and Succop was 28% more attempts so he should be scoring more. The difference between Hauschka and Hartley is 17%. They're still better kickers, but if you adjust for the number of attempts, the total scoring difference would be more like 13 points over the course of the season. (Hauska's 94.28..% times Succop's 28 attempts is 26.4 FGs made out of 28 attempted. Using Hartley the difference is 19 points. That's 1.18 points/game.) Did we win any games by less than 2 points? If the answer is no, then you have to see the scoring difference is negligible.

This doesn't take into account kickoffs.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Considering the division we are in, and the number of tight games we can expect within it next year with the continued improvement of St. Louis and AZ. I would say the kicker is very important. But 3 mil a year is not affordable. The fat kid from WSU comes out this year and he has a cannon for a leg. Kicked a 63 yarder, outside, in Pulman, in November. That is worth a pick and his lower salary will be appreciated. Thanks Housk-money but have a nice day, some place else

How accurate is he? It's great that he has a big leg, but I'll take overall accuracy over the occasional bomb every time.

Furney is mostly fine as far as accuracy goes, but I'd hardly want to sub him (or any other rookie) in for Hauschka unless it was a financial necessity.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Haushka is money, and was a huge part of this team winning it all. Gotta' get a deal done.

 

[CANHawk]

C'mon sis. Don't be a blind stat monkey. Kickers dont kick in sealed environments. Way too many variables go into those percentages; wind, rain, snow, temp, altitude, snapper, holder, o-line, opponent, etc, etc, etc. They're all pretty close until they get outside the 30 yd range, even then it's not WILDLY different. Besides, if we're depending on our kicker to win us games, we've got bigger problems.

Don't get me wrong, i love Haush and want him back, but not at $4m/per. Put that toward Mc,Donald, McDaniel, Tate and Baldwin. If we have cash after locking up the real football players, then spend dough on kickers, but not before... Heck, only reason Haush was here in the first place is because he was dirt cheap. I don't see JS overspending on a kicker.

 

[Largent80]

C'mon sis. Don't be a blind stat monkey. Kickers dont kick in sealed environments. Way too many variables go into those percentages; wind, rain, snow, temp, altitude, snapper, holder, o-line, opponent. They're all pretty close until they get outside the 30 yd range, even then it's not WILDLY different. Besides, if we're depending on our kicker to win us games, we've got bigger problems.

Don't get me wrong, i love Haush and want him back, but not at $4m/per. Put that toward Mc,Donald, McDaniel, Tate and Baldwin. If we have cash after locking up the real football players, then spend dough on kickers, but not before...

Already signed with Tampa.

 

[CANHawk]

^SHIT!!