Osprey":23mx7325 said:
And now, my bubble is burst:
http://seahawksdraftblog.com/why-a-minkah-fitzpatrick-trade-to-seattle-might-be-unlikely
Agree that a slot isn't worth a 1st, but is a multi-tool who could provide competition for Blair at FS worth a 2nd?
I read this article and it wasn't very convincing to me.
Specifically, it makes a very weak case that Fitzpatrick wouldn't be a great fit as a single high (free) safety in the cover-3, the Earl Thomas role. I don't necessarily agree that he's only worth a top pick if he's going to play FS, but even if I did, I don't see why he should be ruled out as a FS in Seattle's scheme.
Quoting a few sections of the article:
If anyone thinks he can be a long term answer for Seattle as a rangy, single-high safety — I’d say that is unlikely. There’s very little evidence of that.... You’re not acquiring an Earl Thomas type here... He has decent speed (4.46) but not elite speed or range.
The speed/range argument is not backed up by the numbers. We all know that tested times don't always line up with playing speed (anticipation, instincts, decisiveness, etc. come in to play on the field), but Fitzpatrick's raw numbers are better than Earl's and clearly put him at or close to the elite class of speed and range at FS. Listed out their pre-draft combine measurables below, and added T2 and Eric Berry for comparison sake (Eddie Harris, the reigning all-pro FS, did not run prior to the draft so there are no numbers available):
Player_______ / 40-yd / 10-yd / 20-yd / SS / 3-Cone
Earl Thomas ____ / 4.49 / 1.62 / 2.65 / DNP / DNP
Minkah Fitzpatrick / 4.46 / 1.52 / 2.58 / 4.13 / 6.73
Tedric Thompson / 4.60 / 1.63 / 2.68 / 4.36 / 7.11
Eric Berry ______ / 4.47 / 1.58 / 2.64 / 4.23 / 6.80
Fitzpatrick is tops in every test here, and (no surprise) T2 is at the bottom for all of them. He also is well ahead of the field in terms of initial burst/quickness, which is likely a reason he has excelled in the slot. They are all pretty similar in size, with Fitzpatrick the tallest but Berry the heaviest (and with by far the longest arms). At any rate, based on measurables at least, Fitzpatrick absolutely nails the speed requirements here.
EDIT TO ADD: the above numbers are all from the NFL combine but I did some more digging and Earl did improve significantly at his pro day (4.37 40-yd dash - faster than all the above combine numbers). Fitzpatrick did not run the 40 at his pro day so there is no direct comparison there.
A more interesting argument which the article makes is this: if Fitzpatrick is so physically suited to the role of FS in a cover-3 or single-high scheme, why hasn't he been played that way?
I don't think that's an easy question to answer. Does his playing speed not match up to his measurables? Is it because of the schemes/philosophies of those teams? Did his versatility combined with the other personnel available play a role? Based on scouting reports that call out his smarts and instincts as strengths, it seems more likely to be one or both of the latter two.
The PFF ratings that show lower scores at positions other than slot corner do raise a flag, but one could argue that a position like FS requires a lot more experience than slot corner so his lower rating at that position could easily be due to him being moved around so much that it didn't allow him to learn and get comfortable at the position.
Also EDITING TO ADD: the Brett Kollmann video that @blazen2392 referenced above - interesting in that vid that Kollmann called out Miami as a possible landing spot for Fitzpatrick but as a slot corner - which is exactly how Miami used him. Really makes a great case for why Fitzpatrick should be used as a FS:
[youtube]QHmdoPB3SN4[/youtube]