NFC Final Playoff Picture

[Polaris]

I have decided to use this thread since it has a sticky to keep everyone up to date. Please refer to the top post regularly.

 

[Polaris]

JerHawk81 asked:

Polaris - I'd love to hear your thoughts on the role that week 17 will play in the NFC West. Is this correct?

If we go into that game two games behind SF, the outcome doesn't matter to the NFC West.
If we go into that game one game behind SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
If we go into that game with the same record as SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
If we go into that game one game ahead of SF, and win, we obviously get the NFC West.

But, what if we go into that game one game ahead of SF and lose??? Here, we would have the same record, split the head-to-head games, and likely have the same division and conference records. My head hurts as I try and think this through, so I'm hoping you can shed some light...

I gave a partial answer in the other thread, but I looked into it some more.

Here's the skinny: If Seattle has a one game lead over San Fran going into week 17 because San Fran lost to the Rams, then Seattle will win the division no matter what.

HOWEVER, if Seattle has a one game lead over San Fran without San Fran dropping a game to the Rams, then it comes down to Strength of Victory. In that case Seattle has the edge because we both will have had the same opponents EXCEPT for our strength of schedule games. Seattle played Minny and Philly for our SoS while San Fran played Green Bay and Washington for their. Advantage Seattle.

 

[QuahHawk]

Min + Phi = 13 wins

GB + Was = 12 wins

Too close to call for now.

 

[Polaris]

Min + Phi = 13 wins

GB + Was = 12 wins

Too close to call for now.

Ugh. Too close. I guess we root against GB and Washington.

 

[94Smith]

Min + Phi = 13 wins

GB + Was = 12 wins

Too close to call for now.

I thought this was the way it would be as well, but the ESPN playoff calculator doesn't seem to acknowledge this tie breaker part of the equation if we lose to the Saints, but beat you guys in week 17 (if all the other games are wins)

 

[SanDiego49er]

It's an interesting look and thanks for posting it. But I think it's still too early. 12 games in is still too early. When you are about 14 games things come into focus a lot more of where all the playoff seeding will line. Not completely determined yet at that point but much more clear focus. There are still some wins and losses coming for teams. It's hard to predict IMO with 4 games left and some tough games for each team. Of course I understand why people want to look at it starting about now. I just think a lot will change around the NFL in the last 1/4 of the season as it always does. It will be more clear soon.

 

[Polaris]

Min + Phi = 13 wins

GB + Was = 12 wins

Too close to call for now.

I thought this was the way it would be as well, but the ESPN playoff calculator doesn't seem to acknowledge this tie breaker part of the equation if we lose to the Saints, but beat you guys in week 17 (if all the other games are wins)

ESPN's Playoff calculator is notoriously dodgy when it comes to handling SoV and SoS tie breakers. Also remember that the SoV and SoS is calculated at the end of the season and the Phi-Minny vs GB-Wash comparison can (and prob will) change by then.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

No way 9er, it's never too early. Playoff Machine rocks :irishdrinkers:

 

[loafoftatupu]

Thanks for the work you put into the OP for this thread Polaris.

If you want a fast way to assess each potential payoff ramification of whether X team loses or Y team wins use the playoff machine.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

A SF loss and a NO loss this weekend with the Hawks winning on Monday against Minnie would put them in the #1 seed for the NFC. If NO wins and the other results stay the same the Hawks are then the #2 seed for the NFC. Until next week.

I haven't stopped playing with this thing all week.

 

[loafoftatupu]

Min + Phi = 13 wins

GB + Was = 12 wins

Too close to call for now.

I thought this was the way it would be as well, but the ESPN playoff calculator doesn't seem to acknowledge this tie breaker part of the equation if we lose to the Saints, but beat you guys in week 17 (if all the other games are wins)

You lose to the Saints and the Hawks win the three games prior to week 17 its over, the Hawks are in the 2 seed and the game is meaningless. This is with the Packers winning all their games, Dallas or Philly... none of it matters.

 

[QuahHawk]

Min + Phi = 13 wins

GB + Was = 12 wins

Too close to call for now.

Ugh. Too close. I guess we root against GB and Washington.

They play each other so this is at least 1 loss

 

[Appyhawk]

In a no holds barred slugfest the Niners top Saints with last second FG, setting the table for SEAHAWKS to get #1 seed by winning out.
Now to see about that "winning out" thing...

 

[Appyhawk]

The first part of that winning out thing didn't happen. From first to fifth in the span of a couple hours. What a drag. Their O line was better than our D line, and their D line was better than our O line. Football is usually just as simple as that. We couldn't match their intensity and the Rams were the better team all night long. We'll have to remake ourselves before next week gets here and go through the playoffs the hard way.

 

[QuahHawk]

Win out and we have the #1 Seed because in a 3 way tie breaker with GB and NO we'd own the tie breakers.

 

[Polaris]

Win out and we have the #1 Seed because in a 3 way tie breaker with GB and NO we'd own the tie breakers.

That's assuming that Green Bay and New Orleans wins out as well. If Green Bay doesn't win out, then we don't control our own destiny for the #1 seed.

 

[JonRud]

FROM ORIGINAL POST: Final rooting suggestions: In addition to rooting for Seattle (of course), I am afraid we all are going to have to bite something sour and root for Dallas to beat the Rams. This one thing would assist Seattle greatly this coming week.


I don't agree with this. The Rams are almost certainly not going to catch the Seahawks. I would rather the Rams beat the Cowboys this week and stay a game within Min for the #6 seed. then the Rams will have motivation to try to beat the 49ers in Week 16. if the Rams lose to Dallas this week, they might totally fold up the tent heading into the SF game.

 

[HawkGA]

FROM ORIGINAL POST: Final rooting suggestions: In addition to rooting for Seattle (of course), I am afraid we all are going to have to bite something sour and root for Dallas to beat the Rams. This one thing would assist Seattle greatly this coming week.


I don't agree with this. The Rams are almost certainly not going to catch the Seahawks. I would rather the Rams beat the Cowboys this week and stay a game within Min for the #6 seed. then the Rams will have motivation to try to beat the 49ers in Week 16. if the Rams lose to Dallas this week, they might totally fold up the tent heading into the SF game.

Just came here to post the same thing. Big Rams fan this week!

 

[QuahHawk]

Why do we care if the Rams beat the 49ers? If we don't beat them week 17 they will get the division. I guess it would allow us to lay a stinker against Carolina or AZ

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Nothing has changed Appy, they win out they are division champs and likely a 1 or 2 seed.

 

[Appyhawk]

Nothing has changed Appy, they win out they are division champs and likely a 1 or 2 seed.

Yep, and that's exactly what I'm hangin' my hat on. Only thing I would say different is I would use 'we' instead of "they". :lol:
I get so involved and tuned in I feel like I'm member of the team. I'd bet it's same for you, Soulfish. Gawd it's hard not to look past our next 2 and go direct to the Niners game.