Everyone,
I'll do the 'full monty' analysis of the NFC Playoff picture tomorrow after MNF because surprisingly that game is actually fairly important. To save everyone anticipation and grief let me state who (I think) you should root for up front as a Seattle fan:
Root for the 'fins.
Why? If the Dolphins win, that gives the Giants a 5-8 record and it means that they can not finish better than 8-8. This would insure that no NFCE team can get nine wins WITHOUT winning the NFCE. Why? The Giants play Philly and Washington plays Philly and right now both Washington and Philly control their own destiny for the NFCE Crown. By insuring that no team in the NFCE can have a winning record w/o clinching the division, it makes it a lot easier for the Seahawks to clinch their own spot.
OTOH if the Giants win, then the Giants could win out at 9-7 and still lose the tiebreak to a 9-7 Washington team, and that could put the Giants into some very messy 3+ team tiebreaks for wildcards if multiple teams finish 9-7. So a Giants win wouldn't be a disaster, but root for the 'fins anyway.
On to the good stuff:
Week 15 Clinching Scenarios
1. Carolina has already clinched a first week bye. Carolina can clinch HFA thoughout the playoffs with:
A win + Arizona loss or tie (or a tie and Arizona loss). Why? Arizona would not be able to overtake Carolina in record if that happened and Carolina is already out of reach of everyone else.
2. Arizona has already clinched a playoff spot. Arizona clinches a first week bye (and NFCW crown) with:
A win + Green Bay loss. Again this is due to the fact that Green Bay is the only team that can catch Arizona (and would own the tiebreak if they do) with an Az win. That is why GB needs to lose.
3. Arizona can clinch the NFCW Crown with:
A win or tie
OR
A Seattle loss or tie
I think the rational here is obvious. Moving on
4. Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win
OR
A NY Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week)+Tampa Bay loss
The reasoning here is somewhat complex. The first part is easy. If Green Bay wins, then there are only two teams in the NFC that could match that that don't already have playoff spots [Seattle and Minny] and at 10+ wins if GB doesn't win the NFCN, Minny will. That leaves two teams for two wildcards no matter what. The second part is more involved. Green Bay has to stay out of a three way tie with the NYGiants [the Eagles and Washington aren't a problem since if either of those teams gets to nine wins, they win the NFCE and don't compete with GB for the same spot]. A Giants loss either tomorrow or next Sunday does this. The Tampa part should be obvious. [edit: Removed Atlanta condition. Atlanta can't win any tiebreak with GB no matter what.]
5. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with
A win + A Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week) + Tampa loss
The reasoning here is very similar to the Green Bay picture. A Giants loss would eliminate any interference from the NFCE, and an Atlanta and Tampla loss make them unable to catch Seattle. No other NFC team would be able to match Seattle other than Green Bay or Minny (but see above)[Edit: Removed Atlanta condition. Atlanta can't win tiebreaks with Seattle.]
6. Minnesota can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win + Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week) +Tampa loss
The reasoning is identical to the scenario for Seattle. In fact Green Bay, Minny, and Seattle are natural allies for the next two weeks at least insofar as the wildcard picture is concerned.[Edit: Removed Atlanta condition since Atlanta won't win tiebreaks with Minny.]
Playoff Elimination Scenarios
If you've looked above, it's possible for all the NFC playoff teams to be determined (if not the seed) *except* for the NFCE Champ. This would eliminate most of the NFC. Details follow:
NFCS:
1. The Saints are eliminated with:
A loss OR A Seattle + Minny win. RIght now 8-8 is the absolute floor to be in Wildcard contention in the NFC, and a loss would put the Saints below that. A Seattle + Minny win would raise the wildcard 'floor' to 9-7 which eliminates the Saint
2, Tampa Bay is eliminated with:
A loss AND A Seattle + Minny win. This combination would make the Bucs best possible record an 8-8 and raise the wildcard floor to 9-7. This eliminates the Bucs. Both Seattle and Minny would have to win because the Bucs would have the tiebreak on both.
3. Atlanta is eliminated with:
A loss OR A Minny + A Seattle win Edit: Atlanta loses all tiebreaks with GB, Seattle, and Minny. For Atlanta to be alive, they have to be able to beat out at least one of these teams outright. This is currently impossible with GB. If both Minny and Seattle win, it's impossible period and Atlanta is eliminated.
NFCE:
1. The Cowboys are eliminated with:
(edit) A Loss (/edit) OR A Washington win AND An Eagles win The Cowboys are already officially eliminated from the wildcard with nine losses. If both the Eagles and Washington win, they will be 7-7 and play each other on week 15 which means one of them will reach 8 wins (or at least 7 and a half with a tie). This would be out of reach of the Cowboys who can have at best a 7-9 record. Edit: Obviously a Cowboys loss would have the same effect since both Washington and Philly already have six wins and play each other.
2. There are no other NFCE elimination scenarios
NFCN:
Detroit has already been eliminated, and Chicago has been eliminated from NFCN title consideration.
1. Chicago is eliminated with:
A loss It really is that simple with Chicago since they are playing Minny. A loss puts Chicago with 9 losses and out of contention. Chicago's sole hope is to win out and beat Minny for the Wildcard tiebreaker.
2. There are no other NFCN elimination scenarios
NFCW:
San Fransisco has already been eliminated. St Louis has been eliminated from NFCW title consideration.
1. St Louis is eliminated with:
A loss OR Seattle + Minny Win Honestly if the Rams win this week, they'll almost certainly be eliminated outright when they play Seattle in Seattle, but a St Louis loss assures them of a losing season and out of playoff contention. Even if the Rams win, if both Seattle and Minny do as well, 8 wins (the most the Rams could get) wouldn't do it.
2. Seattle is eliminated from NFCW title consideration with:
An Arizona win (or tie) OR Seattle loss (or tie) [see above]
*whew* I think that about does it.
I'll do the 'full monty' analysis of the NFC Playoff picture tomorrow after MNF because surprisingly that game is actually fairly important. To save everyone anticipation and grief let me state who (I think) you should root for up front as a Seattle fan:
Root for the 'fins.
Why? If the Dolphins win, that gives the Giants a 5-8 record and it means that they can not finish better than 8-8. This would insure that no NFCE team can get nine wins WITHOUT winning the NFCE. Why? The Giants play Philly and Washington plays Philly and right now both Washington and Philly control their own destiny for the NFCE Crown. By insuring that no team in the NFCE can have a winning record w/o clinching the division, it makes it a lot easier for the Seahawks to clinch their own spot.
OTOH if the Giants win, then the Giants could win out at 9-7 and still lose the tiebreak to a 9-7 Washington team, and that could put the Giants into some very messy 3+ team tiebreaks for wildcards if multiple teams finish 9-7. So a Giants win wouldn't be a disaster, but root for the 'fins anyway.
On to the good stuff:
Week 15 Clinching Scenarios
1. Carolina has already clinched a first week bye. Carolina can clinch HFA thoughout the playoffs with:
A win + Arizona loss or tie (or a tie and Arizona loss). Why? Arizona would not be able to overtake Carolina in record if that happened and Carolina is already out of reach of everyone else.
2. Arizona has already clinched a playoff spot. Arizona clinches a first week bye (and NFCW crown) with:
A win + Green Bay loss. Again this is due to the fact that Green Bay is the only team that can catch Arizona (and would own the tiebreak if they do) with an Az win. That is why GB needs to lose.
3. Arizona can clinch the NFCW Crown with:
A win or tie
OR
A Seattle loss or tie
I think the rational here is obvious. Moving on
4. Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win
OR
A NY Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week)+Tampa Bay loss
The reasoning here is somewhat complex. The first part is easy. If Green Bay wins, then there are only two teams in the NFC that could match that that don't already have playoff spots [Seattle and Minny] and at 10+ wins if GB doesn't win the NFCN, Minny will. That leaves two teams for two wildcards no matter what. The second part is more involved. Green Bay has to stay out of a three way tie with the NYGiants [the Eagles and Washington aren't a problem since if either of those teams gets to nine wins, they win the NFCE and don't compete with GB for the same spot]. A Giants loss either tomorrow or next Sunday does this. The Tampa part should be obvious. [edit: Removed Atlanta condition. Atlanta can't win any tiebreak with GB no matter what.]
5. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with
A win + A Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week) + Tampa loss
The reasoning here is very similar to the Green Bay picture. A Giants loss would eliminate any interference from the NFCE, and an Atlanta and Tampla loss make them unable to catch Seattle. No other NFC team would be able to match Seattle other than Green Bay or Minny (but see above)[Edit: Removed Atlanta condition. Atlanta can't win tiebreaks with Seattle.]
6. Minnesota can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win + Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week) +Tampa loss
The reasoning is identical to the scenario for Seattle. In fact Green Bay, Minny, and Seattle are natural allies for the next two weeks at least insofar as the wildcard picture is concerned.[Edit: Removed Atlanta condition since Atlanta won't win tiebreaks with Minny.]
Playoff Elimination Scenarios
If you've looked above, it's possible for all the NFC playoff teams to be determined (if not the seed) *except* for the NFCE Champ. This would eliminate most of the NFC. Details follow:
NFCS:
1. The Saints are eliminated with:
A loss OR A Seattle + Minny win. RIght now 8-8 is the absolute floor to be in Wildcard contention in the NFC, and a loss would put the Saints below that. A Seattle + Minny win would raise the wildcard 'floor' to 9-7 which eliminates the Saint
2, Tampa Bay is eliminated with:
A loss AND A Seattle + Minny win. This combination would make the Bucs best possible record an 8-8 and raise the wildcard floor to 9-7. This eliminates the Bucs. Both Seattle and Minny would have to win because the Bucs would have the tiebreak on both.
3. Atlanta is eliminated with:
A loss OR A Minny + A Seattle win Edit: Atlanta loses all tiebreaks with GB, Seattle, and Minny. For Atlanta to be alive, they have to be able to beat out at least one of these teams outright. This is currently impossible with GB. If both Minny and Seattle win, it's impossible period and Atlanta is eliminated.
NFCE:
1. The Cowboys are eliminated with:
(edit) A Loss (/edit) OR A Washington win AND An Eagles win The Cowboys are already officially eliminated from the wildcard with nine losses. If both the Eagles and Washington win, they will be 7-7 and play each other on week 15 which means one of them will reach 8 wins (or at least 7 and a half with a tie). This would be out of reach of the Cowboys who can have at best a 7-9 record. Edit: Obviously a Cowboys loss would have the same effect since both Washington and Philly already have six wins and play each other.
2. There are no other NFCE elimination scenarios
NFCN:
Detroit has already been eliminated, and Chicago has been eliminated from NFCN title consideration.
1. Chicago is eliminated with:
A loss It really is that simple with Chicago since they are playing Minny. A loss puts Chicago with 9 losses and out of contention. Chicago's sole hope is to win out and beat Minny for the Wildcard tiebreaker.
2. There are no other NFCN elimination scenarios
NFCW:
San Fransisco has already been eliminated. St Louis has been eliminated from NFCW title consideration.
1. St Louis is eliminated with:
A loss OR Seattle + Minny Win Honestly if the Rams win this week, they'll almost certainly be eliminated outright when they play Seattle in Seattle, but a St Louis loss assures them of a losing season and out of playoff contention. Even if the Rams win, if both Seattle and Minny do as well, 8 wins (the most the Rams could get) wouldn't do it.
2. Seattle is eliminated from NFCW title consideration with:
An Arizona win (or tie) OR Seattle loss (or tie) [see above]
*whew* I think that about does it.