Our drafting since 2010

[12thbrah]

It would be interesting to see how many of those picks are still on nfl rosters.

 

[seahawkfreak]

Pete Carroll had much more information about college Players in the first three years of his seahawks tenure. He got to know a lot during his USC years. Such an insight is hard to get while not being in the inner circle. He was a great recruiter from high School level in USC.

After that we have been mere mortals.

I really do not get this point of view. Many have made this statement, here and in media. Do NFL scouts stop at the college level when it comes to looking for talent? I have a hard time believing that. No offense meant to people who believe this but IMHO this is a false narrative that sounds good and tries to make sense of things.

There are plenty of internet sites that scout high school players, not to mention, top high school teams play all the time on cable and direct TV. The information is there and even if it wasn't, couldn't PC scout like he did when he was at USC and follow those specific high school players through the college ranks (or send scouts to do it)? He might not get to do home visits like he did at USC but that is irrelevant because home visits are really about convincing the player to come to your college, not talent evaluation. In the NFL, interviews happen at the combine.

All NFL teams scour every place every year, high school, JUCO, college, Canada and even other countries across the pond. Pete Carrol was not put into any sort of scouting handicap just because he went to the NFL.

 

[oldhawkfan]

Looking back at those last 8 drafts, 76 players have been drafted. This does not include undrafted free agents or other teams free agents signed. The draft is one method of acquiring players. The last 8 drafts have averaged 9.5 players chosen each year. In a 7 round draft, one could argue that they are doing an above average job of getting extra picks every year. I have counted 21 out of those 76 as on the roster still contributing members of the team. That calculates to 27%. Of course there are more players from the last few drafts than there are from some of the earlier drafts (other than 2012).

If you take 27% of the average of 9.5 drafted players then they are "hitting" on approximately 35% of their draft picks each year under the JS/PC regime. Every year, league wide about 50% of all 1st round picks are busts or simply don't live up to draft status. I don't know what the league average is on percentage of "successful" drafting is but I would bet good money that any team would be happy with a 1/3 rate of success. As fans, we want every pick to be a potential pro bowl player. I'm sure JS/PC look at and know about their 35% rate and that is why they covet quantity over quality when it comes to number of picks. If they have more picks and they know their success rate to be roughly 35% then more picks means more chances of draft hits.
If they close 1 player in each round every year for only 7 players drafted, their success rate or "hits" would be 2.45 players. Based on their average of 9.5 players drafted, the hit rate goes to 3.3. So 2 1/2 extra picks per year gains them roughly 1.2 "hits" /year.
For this post, " hits" are defined as drafted players who earn a roster spot and contribute in some way.

 

[oldhawkfan]

Looking back at those last 8 drafts, 76 players have been drafted. This does not include undrafted free agents or other teams free agents signed. The draft is one method of acquiring players. The last 8 drafts have averaged 9.5 players chosen each year. In a 7 round draft, one could argue that they are doing an above average job of getting extra picks every year. I have counted 21 out of those 76 as on the roster still contributing members of the team. That calculates to 27%. Of course there are more players from the last few drafts than there are from some of the earlier drafts (other than 2012).

If you take 27% of the average of 9.5 drafted players then they are "hitting" on approximately 35% of their draft picks each year under the JS/PC regime. Every year, league wide about 50% of all 1st round picks are busts or simply don't live up to draft status. I don't know what the league average is on percentage of "successful" drafting is but I would bet good money that any team would be happy with a 1/3 rate of success. As fans, we want every pick to be a potential pro bowl player. I'm sure JS/PC look at and know about their 35% rate and that is why they covet quantity over quality when it comes to number of picks. If they have more picks and they know their success rate to be roughly 35% then more picks means more chances of draft hits.
If they close 1 player in each round every year for only 7 players drafted, their success rate or "hits" would be 2.45 players. Based on their average of 9.5 players drafted, the hit rate goes to 3.3. So 2 1/2 extra picks per year gains them roughly 1.2 "hits" /year.
For this post, " hits" are defined as drafted players who earn a roster spot and contribute in some way.

And...i just found some stats on the 2016 draft. 12% of players in that draft became starters at the beginning of that season. About 9% of drafted players were cut prior to the season opener.

 

[The Hammer]

the 2013 draft was horrible almost across the board for a lot of the league. Take a look at the 1st round.

Yeah, that was a really bad year for us too, even with high picks