Our "Tier 3 QB" is on the move.....

[Smellyman]

Sadly Russell is underappreciated because he doesn't play like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or a host of other 6'5" QB's.

His game is suited for a 5'11" QB and will always be what it is. Stepping up into a pocket at that height is a challenge because of sight lines. It is what it is.

For my money Drew Brees is the best pure pocket passer in the NFL (and it isn't close), so height isn't an issue. We have their actual heights from the combine and Brees is just an inch taller than Wilson.

That inch can't explain the difference between a guy who struggles in the pocket and a guy who for the last seven years has been putting up around 5K passing yards a year at about a 69% completion rate while playing almost entirely from the pocket.

Aaron Rodgers is just a couple of inches taller than WIlson too.

You're right though that Wilson doesn't play like Brady, Manning, Brees, or Rodgers. The difference between Wilson and all those guys -- and why he often doesn't get talked about with them -- is that they're at the top of the top: you feel comfortable having your ability to win on offense flow entirely through them.

I was listening to a recent interview with Scot McCloughlan yesterday, and he said what a lot of professional talent evaluaters have been saying about Wilson: He's a really good QB, but not the type of guy who want having to throw the ball 35+ times a game.

That's a categorical difference between him and the top tier guys, and it's not about height.


Edit: Link to McCloughan here: https://www.ninersnation.com/2017/10/3/ ... ime-stamps

That is actually just another Wilson myth. He is one of the best pocket passers in the NFL. Where he struggles is staying in the pocket. His internal clock is "too short", as it should be with Cable here "protecting him" and since it's saved his life so many times.

118.6 -- Wilson's passer rating on throws from inside the pocket. Not only was that the top mark among this year's group, but no quarterback in the past three seasons has posted a higher number. Wilson completed 72.8 percent of his passes, averaged 8.75 yards per attempt and tossed 31 touchdowns against seven interceptions when he stayed in the pocket. Since Week 11, the numbers are 77.8 percent, 9.90 YPA, 22 touchdowns and one interception. That equates to a passer rating of 145.1. Regardless of what happens in the playoffs, this will be one of the most important things to come out of the 2015 season for the Seahawks. When Wilson has time to sit back in the pocket, he can pick defenses apart. He's shown that ability in the past, but never at such a high level, and it's made the Seahawks extremely tough to defend. If opponents want to try to stay disciplined with their pass rushes and not allow Wilson to scramble, he's perfectly content to hang tight, survey the field and deliver on-target all game long.

http://www.espn.com/blog/seattle-se...umbers-behind-russell-wilsons-historic-season

I got triggered.

Good thing Seymour is here to educate the ignorant

 

[MontanaHawk05]

He is one of the best pocket passers in the NFL. Where he struggles is staying in the pocket.

Pretty sure that staying in the pocket is part of being a good pocket passer.

 

[Smellyman]

He is one of the best pocket passers in the NFL. Where he struggles is staying in the pocket.

Pretty sure that staying in the pocket is part of being a good pocket passer.

Pretty sure being a great pocket passer and the best play maker in the league out of the pocket is the perfect scenario.

Edit: Of course if you want RW dead, he should just hang in the 'pocket'

 

[Seymour]

He is one of the best pocket passers in the NFL. Where he struggles is staying in the pocket.

Pretty sure that staying in the pocket is part of being a good pocket passer.

Tell that to those that scored him league high in 2016, not me.

 

[Popeyejones]

Oh good god. How often can Wilson COUNT on both tackles keeping those pocket edges clean to step up in the last 2 years? He can't see his targets and see out of both his ear holes too!

The pocket exists to make the job of your tackles easier. In pass pro even starting at the high school level tackles are taught to block inside out -- don't ever let someone cross your face, and carrying someone's momentum outside out of the play is as good as stonewalling them, if not better, as it opens up the throwing lane as you carry the rusher out of the play entirely.

Long story short, a QB who doesn't step into the pocket makes the jobs of his tackles much harder, not easier.

The takeaway here is that Wilson is playing behind a crappy O-line, but he's also one of the hardest QBs in the NFL to block for. He's like the anti-Peyton Manning, who wherever he went magically made his O-line a "top" O-line in pass pro simply because of the way he played. It's the same story with Brees --- his "great" o-lineman flame out everywhere else they go because he makes his line look MUCH better than it is.

That spin move "into traffic" makes more plays than it misses, and it doesn't happen enough to get all crazy about either. You take the good with the bad. The good outweighs the bad so you live with it. Or bitch about it and pray for a new QB.
Your choice.

Yep. He definitely makes plays off that move, just as he definitely makes the job of his line harder sometimes on that move and takes ridiculously deep sacks sometimes off that move too.

I never claimed that the good didn't outweigh the bad. It's great for chunk plays (which Wilson is GREAT on), but bad for running a defined offense and keeping your offense on schedule. It's one of the reasons why Scot McCloughan said Wilson is a great, great QB, but not the type of QB you want to be throwing the ball 35 times a game.

Also. I suggest you change "your definition" of pocket passer to match everyone else if want to have any reasonable conversation on the topic. The quote I posted was his rating of 118. The highest of any QB in 3 years at the time. Enough said on that.

I'm using the same definition that everyone else uses when talking about pocket passing. My point is that the statistic doesn't use the definition that everyone else uses.

Just by way of a clear example, according to the statistics a screen pass is a pass from the pocket, whereas according to the way everyone talks about pocket passing and throwing from the pocket a screen pass is like an anti-pocket pass (the whole point is to not even have a pocket and "give up" the pocket so that the misdirection of the play works).

Lastly. Yes you can blame poor oline play for those habits. Cable's olines have always been notoriously bad at pass blocking and good at run blocking. Look it up, never better then #22 and that was Oakland. Wilson is always among the leaders in QB pressures. The year we won the SB he had the #32 ranked oline in pass protection and the highest paid line in the NFL. Cable's should give half his check to Wilson every year. He is the only reason Cable still has a job.

1) You've just switched from arguing that the habits don't exist to arguing that they do exist but are justifiable. Do you have a preference for one of these claims over the other, or are you just taking an any port in the storm approach?

2) The claim that a bad Oline turned WIlson into a player who struggles in the few areas he does doesn't really hold any water for me, as he's struggled in this area since the beginning of his rookie year. As I've always said and believed, I like him as a QB because he reminds more of Steve Young than any other QB I've seen (Young is my favorite QB), but he doesn't have Young's ability in the pocket to go along with his athleticism and friggin beautiful deep ball.

Go back through my post history here. Since I've joined this board I've been comparing Wilson to Young (which people here like) and talking about how he needs (1) develop a sense for pressure rather than just relying on a clock, (2) develop his ability to step up into the pocket and keep his feet set in the pocket, and (3) develop the ability to manipulate pressure while keeping his feet set while in the pocket (which some people here have been giving me crap about for years now :lol: ).

Long story short, not much has changed. Four years ago I said it was a skill he still needed to develop and still has time to develop, and a couple weeks ago I said that he still hadn't developed the skill but was lucky because it's one of the few skills that can be developed into a QB's early 30s (a la Ben Roethlisberger).

 

[Seymour]

1) You've just switched from arguing that the habits don't exist to arguing that they do exist but are justifiable..

BS. You skip around and take small segments of several different quotes and come up with that? Weak. You remember just what you want don't you? I said he is an excellent pocket passer, is rated as such and has things to work on that would improve his game like everyone else. I've pointed this out many times over the last few years. That does not mean he is not still excellent overall, as he ultimately gets the job done. Do you even understand what "you take the good with the bad means?

I'm done with this useless conversation. :roll:

.....You take the good with the bad. The good outweighs the bad so you live with it. Or bitch about it and pray for a new QB.
Your choice.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It's always interesting to read people's takes on Russ.
But with a couple people I work with, he could have a 4 touchdown game, have only 5 or 6 incomplete passes the entire game (a couple probably throw away plays to avoid a sack) and they will just dwell on the incompletions. Or some fluke interception that the WR dropped etc.

Russ played great............but but but but.....he wasn't 100 percent accurate in this game, didn't have 7 touchdowns, zero picks and 200 yards rushing.......not good enough.
It's as if there is this need w/some to point out the bad, instead of just enjoying the ride. No quarterback is perfect, and never will be. Blatant refusal due to the fact that for some reason, they just don't like the guy.

 

[Popeyejones]

BS. You skip around and take small segments of several different quotes and come up with that? Weak. You remember just what you want don't you?

AFAIK I quoted every single word of your post and just broke it up into the different topics you were addressing for the sake of cleanliness. If I missed something in the post by all means alert me to it as it wasn't intentional.

I said he is an excellent pocket passer, is rated as such...

Yeah, we simply disagree on if he's an excellent pocket passer or not. Fair enough. We don't disagree that he's a very good QB, though.

and has things to work on that would improve his game like everyone else.

Oh, yeah, ok. That's something you said in a later post. Gotcha. I didn't respond to it because it wasn't in the post and came later (I simply didn't see it).

So maybe the disagreement is just over if stepping into the pocket, maintaining his base while in the pocket, and manipulating the rush while in the pocket is one of the areas of his game he has to work on or not? I think it is and you think it isn't, maybe.

I've pointed this out many times over the last few years. That does not mean he is not still excellent overall, as he ultimately gets the job done. Do you even understand what "you take the good with the bad means? You take the good with the bad. The good outweighs the bad so you live with it. Or bitch about it and pray for a new QB.
Your choice.

Of course I understand that. In talking about what I think to be a weakness in his game I've also (through this thread and always) talked about the many strengths of his game.

As for praying for a new QB, I think anyone who wants the Hawks to move on from Wilson is a crazy person.

FROM ANOTHER POST OF YOURS, WHICH I JUST SAW NOW AND IS WORTH RESPONDING TO:

I disagree he is "ruined" (defined as not able to return to his 2013-2015 level of play) like 57% of the people that voted here think he will be by years end. I disagree that he isn't still a top tier (top 5-7 or so) franchise QB worth keeping. I assumed from your line of gripes you were in that group.

:lol:, no.

IIRC I didn't vote in that poll, but if I did I ABSOLUTELY wouldn't have voted that he has already been ruined by his O-line. If I had voted I would have have voted that he won't be.

As for where I'd rate him overall, he's solidly tier 2 for me, as he always has been (FWIW for me tier #2 is probably 4-12 or so). As I keep on saying over and over again I think he also still has time to work his way into Tier 1.

And also, just for the sake of clarification, I don't have a "line of gripes" about Wilson. Go through my posting history. This is literally the only major critique I have of his game, and I've never made it without making that clear.

 

[Seymour]

.....As for where I'd rate him overall, he's solidly tier 2 for me, as he always has been (FWIW for me tier #2 is probably 4-12 or so). As I keep on saying over and over again I think he also still has time to work his way into Tier 1.

Then maybe you're overly discounting him for his flaws because you see them every week and not others. Many outside experts would disagree with your analysis.

Tier 1: Bona fide franchise quarterbacks

2016: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton
2017: Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Wilson, Newton, Drew Brees

I struggled with where to put Brees a year ago and after much hand wringing I barely slotted him in Tier 2, with concerns about Father Time catching up to him and how much the Saints had to throw the ball from behind and what that might mean for his health moving forward. But he should’ve been in this group all along and he showed it again in 2016. I’m giving Newton a mulligan because he had no offensive line and other teams were allowed to assault him, beginning with the opener in Denver a year ago.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...to-just-guys-where-your-likely-starter-ranks/

 

[Mad Dog]

IIRC I didn't vote in that poll, but if I did I ABSOLUTELY wouldn't have voted that he has already been ruined by his O-line. If I had voted I would have have voted that he won't be.

As for where I'd rate him overall, he's solidly tier 2 for me, as he always has been (FWIW for me tier #2 is probably 4-12 or so). As I keep on saying over and over again I think he also still has time to work his way into Tier 1.

And also, just for the sake of clarification, I don't have a "line of gripes" about Wilson. Go through my posting history. This is literally the only major critique I have of his game, and I've never made it without making that clear.

I think you rank him tier 2 because you value certain QB attributes too highly and you discount role of coaching and OL play too much.

Things Russell Wilson does that are at the top of the QB class:
1) Durability - never missed a start
2) Deep throws - stats presented last game on the TV broadcast show he's at the top of his class in deep tosses
3) QB Rating- well, he's second to Aaron Rodgers all time but still
4) Scrambling ability - there are running QB's out there but few do it as well as Russell as far as escapability, throwing on the run, and safety
5) Winning - 10+ games per year plus at least 1 playoff victory a season since entering the league

If being at the top or near the top in those critical QB aspects can't put you in the upper echelon, I don't know what can. Yes he doesn't stand tall in the pocket like some guys and sometimes holds the ball too long and can sail passes high at times, but he's certainly no Tarvaris Jackson as far as bad pocket presences go.

But if tier 1 is certainty first ballot HoFer, then you have high standards for QB play. Of course in my mind there are only two tiers of QB's in the league, those you are completely satisfied with and those you are trying to replace with something better.

 

[Popeyejones]

Then maybe your overly discounting him for his flaws because you see them every week and not others. Many outside experts would disagree with your analysis.

Yeah, and many outside experts would disagree with La Canfora's analysis too (e.g. the recent Sando (?) piece as based on 40 professional NFL talent evaluators who put him at 12 or 13 or whatever).

So what?

For me Tier 1 is Rodgers, Brady, Brees.

They're the only three QBs in the NFL who I think can succeed offensively with everything flowing through them week in and week out if need be.*

If La Canfora includes Ben R., Cam, and Wilson with those three in Tier 1 and I put Ben R., Cam, and Wilson with other guys in Tier 2 then that's you're smoking gun. My tier 1 is just smaller than his. That's it.


*I think Brees gets unfairly discounted right now because of his age and because of the interceptions, which I think are a little overstated b/c people look at the raw numbers without considering that he throws more passes than everyone every year too, and that Payton's tweak on the Air Coryel offense attacks vertically, which also leads to a lot of picks.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Did he pee in your cereal or something?

 

[Seymour]

If La Canfora includes Ben R., Cam, and Wilson with those three in Tier 1 and I put Ben R., Cam, and Wilson with other guys in Tier 2 then that's you're smoking gun. My tier 1 is just smaller than his. That's it.

That is how many of these disagreements go on and on. People have different definitions, just like you have a different definition of "pocket passer" than those that score and rate them, you seem to have a different definition of Tier 1 as well.

It is as simple as stated in that post. Bona fide franchise quarterbacks.

There are more than 3 of those.

This is just another extension of the whole Elite discussion. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[Siouxhawk]

He's certainly Tier 1 when it comes to dropping in that over-the-shoulder pass. There ain't no one better.

This is a good thread with sound discussion, but give me Russell every day. As TO once blubbered: "That's my quarterback!"

 

[Popeyejones]

I think you rank him tier 2 because you value certain QB attributes too highly and you discount role of coaching and OL play too much.

A) I think I rank him tier 2 because I value QB attributes correctly. If I have a bias against Wilson it's that I think by it's nature football is a very high variance game, and Wilson is a very high variance player at the games most important position. (FWIW I think him being so high variance is why you have people coming down on crazy sides of this debate trying to say he's the best QB ever or he totally sucks -- high variance players are both of things sometimes).

B) Just by way of example, I think if people can't rattle off the difference between a smash concept and a yankee concept and which route combo is good against which defensive scheme I don't really care what they have to say about coaching.

C) I think in football more than any other sport if you want to evaluate players you have to learn to do so independently of what the players around them are or aren't doing. As a result I think evaluating individual performances in football is comparatively tough, but still doable.

Things Russell Wilson does that are at the top of the QB class:
1) Durability - never missed a start
2) Deep throws - stats presented last game on the TV broadcast show he's at the top of his class in deep tosses
3) QB Rating- well, he's second to Aaron Rodgers all time but still
4) Scrambling ability - there are running QB's out there but few do it as well as Russell as far as escapability, throwing on the run, and safety
5) Winning - 10+ games per year plus at least 1 playoff victory a season since entering the league

1. For sure.
2. Something I've said I love watching him do many, many times over, and even in this thread already, IIRC.
3. I'm aware of his QB rating, but let's save my gripes about QB rating (and in particular the meaninglessness of "all time QB rating"). for another thread. In any case, we agree absolutely agree that he has a high completion percentage and doesn't throw a lot of picks, which are both strengths.
4. If my favorite QB of all time is Steve Young it would be weird for me to discount scrambling ability when evaluating QBs.
5) See "C" above.

If being at the top or near the top in those critical QB aspects can't put you in the upper echelon, I don't know what can. Yes he doesn't stand tall in the pocket like some guys and sometimes holds the ball too long and can sail passes high at times, but he's certainly no Tarvaris Jackson as far as bad pocket presences go.

I've never even considered comping him to Tavaris Jackson (they're in totally different leagues as players) so I can't really comment on this.

But if tier 1 is certainty first ballot HoFer, then you have high standards for QB play. Of course in my mind there are only two tiers of QB's in the league, those you are completely satisfied with and those you are trying to replace with something better.

Oh, okay yeah. If your QB tiers are guys you're looking to replace and guys you're not looking to replace then by that standard we'd obviously agree which tier Wilson is in. :lol:

For me, I just have a lot of trouble thinking of tier one as being more than five or six guys at a position at any time. To be in a tier you have to be categorically similar to everyone else in your tier and I just don't see that.

At the QB position I just have a lot of trouble coming up with a fourth or fifth guy in the first tier who I think is more similar in performance right now to Rodgers, Brady, and Brees than I think they are to the fifth, sixth, or seventh guy in my ranking. It feels like a pretty natural cut point to me, but that obviously subjective.

 

[Seymour]

High variance like this?? :snack:

Way to "step up" in the pocket Russ!!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ShaunOHara60/status/912372456245141504[/tweet]

 

[Siouxhawk]

Easy on the T-Jack references. At age 35, he'd still be a better backup than what we currently have. Carry on.

 

[chris98251]

Easy on the T-Jack references. At age 35, he'd still be a better backup than what we currently have. Carry on.

Only due to Davis does not call the coin tosses.

 

[Siouxhawk]

Easy on the T-Jack references. At age 35, he'd still be a better backup than what we currently have. Carry on.

Only due to Davis does not call the coin tosses.

That was just in overtime, right? I wonder who is designated that role now?

 

[Popeyejones]

High variance like this?? :snack:

Way to "step up" in the pocket Russ!!

:lol:

Yep, see "C" above.

That's a play where five o-lineman get a down grade and (depending on how you feel about the botched snap) Wilson receives no grade (plus or minus) on the play.

Two things on it though, one related and one tangential:

1) You don't have everyone cut unless you're going for a step-and-throw swing pass or slant pass. From (what looks like) Baldwin in the slot it looks like they're going for a swing pass there. If this botched play wasn't botched it would be a great example of something that 1) gets recorded as a pocket pass but 2) has literally nothing to do with what anyone is talking about when they talk about the ins and outs of pocket passing.

2) The 49ers are to blame for this (and they even have their O-Lineman award named after Bob McKittrick, who introduced it to the NFL), but that the Seahawks still rely on cut blocking so much pisses me off. It's a crappy, dangerous way to the play the game and the NFL should have outlawed it a long time ago. Every time someone whiffs on a cut block it makes me happy. Watching five guys simultaneously whiff on cut blocks makes me elated. If only we could always be so lucky. /end rant. :lol: