Patriots Deflate-Gate?

[TXHawk]

Check this out: http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932

Someone did a study of fumble tendencies and apparently the number of times the Patriots fumbled dropped dramatically beginning in 2007 and have been so abnormally off the charts for a cold weather non-dome team as to be nearly statistically impossible.

It looks to me like they've been deflating footballs since 2007.

It looks like the server that was on has been crashing. Here's a tweet with one of the charts from it.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kevinshockey/status/558384546576490496[/tweet]

And a quote from it:

I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn’t close:

2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble
2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble
2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble
2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble
2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble
2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble
2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble
2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble
2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble
1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble

So since 2007 the Patriots have had four of the top six fumble ratios over a five year period with 2010-2014 being the best in the past 25 years by a WIDE margin. Prior to 2007 they were about league average or below with the same coach/QB combo. Coincidentally or not, 2007 is also the year that Brady's passing numbers exploded over previous years and that was his seventh season as a starter. It's almost as if the Patriots' footballs suddenly developed more grip in 2007 which just also happened to be the year that the league changed the rules to allow teams to supply their own game balls, whether at home or on the road.

 

[vonstout]

Interesting. I used the link to the article yesterday, but this morning, it doesn't work.

 

[TXHawk]

Interesting. I used the link to the article yesterday, but this morning, it doesn't work.

The link has been working sporadically all morning. I think their server is getting hammered.

 

[Phteven]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... pash-wells

According to NFL.com, they are going to launch a formal investigation. Same guy who conducted the 2013 dolphins investigation. I read that report when it came out. It was thorough, fair and very objective.

This means two things to me. First, that nothing will be determined until AFTER the big game, which is fine by me. I wouldn't want the Seahawks repete to be questioned because Brady was on the sideline.

Second, the investigation will be thorough. If there's anything going on, we'll learn about it in a few months, I'm sure.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Out of curiosity, I pumped the football in my closet to 13 PSI, then deflated it to 11.

...There is no way Brady played a game without noticing a ~20% PSI difference in his footballs.

NO.
WAY.

My question is what were the actual weight of the footballs if the regulation allows it to be 12.5-13.5 psi. Does that mean the footballs were 11.5 or 10.5 psi?

 

[gargantual]

Interesting. I used the link to the article yesterday, but this morning, it doesn't work.

The link has been working sporadically all morning. I think their server is getting hammered.

So the NFL won't be able to bury this. Although this has gone far beyond the boiling point, they're not cramming these worms back in the can.

 

[gargantual]

Out of curiosity, I pumped the football in my closet to 13 PSI, then deflated it to 11.

...There is no way Brady played a game without noticing a ~20% PSI difference in his footballs.

NO.
WAY.

My question is what were the actual weight of the footballs if the regulation allows it to be 12.5-13.5 psi. Does that mean the footballs were 11.5 or 10.5 psi?

I don't know directly, but I would assume they count how high or low the pressure measures, so anything higher than 3.5 or lower than 2.5. If that logic bears out, then the 11 balls all measured at 10.5.

 

[gargantual]

Err...I meant of course anything higher than 13.5 or lower than 12.5.

 

[lvnginhwktwn]

Hi Hawks fans,

I am a visiting Ravens fan and love your brand of football, you guys play D. Much respect. Richard Sherman is actually my favorite NFL player right now.

Anyway, I did a little Photoshop to inspire you to beat those cheating bastards.

Haha, welcome to the forum, Captain. Any chance you could go back into Photoshop for a moment and spell "sponsor" correctly, though?

Captain meet grammar nazi.

 

[253hawk]

Things that make you go HMMMMMM...

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

What I've taken from this whole thing -- there are some really sore arsed Tweeters who follow or cover the Patriots.

They've defended their team in a way Marvin would be proud of this week.

 

[mikeak]

Things that make you go HMMMMMM...

Are those numbers real or inflated (pun intended)

 

[253hawk]

Real.
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.co ... ll-securit

 

[scutterhawk]

BB completely threw Brady under the bus.

Hell, maybe BB should play Quarterback in this upcoming game, he's fantastic at doing "Dump-Offs".

 

[Silentwander]

Difference balls video.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...l-the-difference-between-footballs/vi-AA8w0yC

 

[lvnginhwktwn]

Difference balls video.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...l-the-difference-between-footballs/vi-AA8w0yC

Probably would have been better if they just handed them the ball and asked them to decided which ball was legal. Not saying the outcome would have been different but if you are going to do a test like this it should be a blind test.

 

[Rainger]

Tonight Megen Kelly on Fox had a CIA somebody on who wrote some book about lying and he said based upon the media scrums of both Belicheat and Brady that both were totally lying with their statements and responses.

 

[rideaducati]

The Patriots are going to get away with this. The evidence is damning and I'm sure they have plenty of evidence of what happened with all the video available, but I suspect the NFL will just destroy the video and slap the Patriots on the wrist with fines and minimal suspensions.

 

[253hawk]

And then the balls will apologize for their role in the incident.

 

[Sports Hernia]

The Patriots are going to get away with this. The evidence is damning and I'm sure they have plenty of evidence of what happened with all the video available, but I suspect the NFL will just destroy the video and slap the Patriots on the wrist with fines and minimal suspensions.

That's the likely scenerio, but if TMZ, and other outlets do investigative journalism the NFL may be forced to come down hard on the cheatriots if the know those outlets have damning evidence. The NFL's credibility is on the line here more than they ever know. If they sweep it under the rug, and then more evidence comes out against their verdict, then Rog is a goner!