Paying Wilson May Hurt Seahawks Super Bowl Chances-Nemhauser

[DavidSeven]

$21.9M APY. Guarantee half the total deal. No gimmicky structure.

Wilson will be a close second behind Rodgers, ahead of Roethlisberger and Newton. Luck will surpass him next year, but no other QB is due for a payday over the next three years. #3 is all but assured Top 3 money for 3-4 years.

As of now, that would be my last offer if I were them.

You've got to think that they've already offered him that, don't you? I guess the sounds of it is that the "way" that it is guaranteed is the sticking point. Since it seems most GM's have kind of colluded to keep this structure, it may be a bit tougher for Schneider to agree to.

My feeling is that Seattle has probably already offered him something in this range, and if that's true, then I would say Russell's side is being a little unreasonable in playing hardball, especially if they're demanding $25M/yr or an unprecedented guarantee structure. All just a guess.

While it's true that Russell could probably milk the team (or someone else) for more by waiting, Cam Newton could've done the same thing by also deferring. Instead, he made a commitment to Carolina. And this is a guy who auctioned off his transfer paperwork in college!

 

[ptisme]

What the heck? Just honor your damn contract already....
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/repo ... act-063015

Wait who are you talking about? RW has a contract as of now and he has honored it.

Was talking about Rodgers agent. Check out the link

 

[hawknation2015]

What the heck? Just honor your damn contract already....
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/repo ... act-063015

Wait who are you talking about? RW has a contract as of now and he has honored it.

Green Bay fan . . . he's talking about the speculation that Aaron Rodgers will want more money after Wilson tops his deal.

 

[erik2690]

What the heck? Just honor your damn contract already....
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/repo ... act-063015

Wait who are you talking about? RW has a contract as of now and he has honored it.

Green Bay fan . . . he's talking about the speculation that Aaron Rodgers will want more money after Wilson tops his deal.

Oh, that was confusing. Understood.

 

[kearly]

There is actually only ONE quarterback in the entire league who is taking up more than 14% of his team's salary cap this season. That QB is Drew Brees, and that is only the case because the Saints unwisely pushed most of his cap hit into the final two years of his deal. That terrible contract structure is one of the reasons the Saints were seriously hampered this off-season, forcing them to trade several key contributors . . . including Jimmy Graham.

Last year, there were only two QBs making more than 14% of their team's cap: Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (14.2%).

Of the two QBs you mentioned, Dalton's cap hit does not reach $16 million until the 2018 season. Smith doesn't reach that amount until next year. Dalton's cap percentage last year was under 7%, while Smith's was only 3%. With the way their contracts are structured, neither one will ever burden their team with a cap hit above 11%.

For the record, I never argued that Dalton was getting 15%, I was just saying that even the Andy Dalton's of the world are getting paid. Dalton's percentage would have been top tier a decade ago.

As far as the numbers this year, everything you said is technically correct, but ultimately misleading. Look at 2016, 2017, and 2018. That's the new normal in the NFL, and it's not even counting the new megadeals that Wilson and Luck are about to get.

 

[hawknation2015]

There is actually only ONE quarterback in the entire league who is taking up more than 14% of his team's salary cap this season. That QB is Drew Brees, and that is only the case because the Saints unwisely pushed most of his cap hit into the final two years of his deal. That terrible contract structure is one of the reasons the Saints were seriously hampered this off-season, forcing them to trade several key contributors . . . including Jimmy Graham.

Last year, there were only two QBs making more than 14% of their team's cap: Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (14.2%).

Of the two QBs you mentioned, Dalton's cap hit does not reach $16 million until the 2018 season. Smith doesn't reach that amount until next year. Dalton's cap percentage last year was under 7%, while Smith's was only 3%. With the way their contracts are structured, neither one will ever burden their team with a cap hit above 11%.

For the record, I never argued that Dalton was getting 15%, I was just saying that even the Andy Dalton's of the world are getting paid. Dalton's percentage would have been top tier a decade ago.

As far as the numbers this year, everything you said is technically correct, but ultimately misleading. Look at 2016, 2017, and 2018. That's the new normal in the NFL, and it's not even counting the new megadeals that Wilson and Luck are about to get.

Brees's deal is already making it near impossible for the Saints to maintain a winning team, but there is a good chance he will restructure the final year of that deal if they continue to struggle.

The chickens will also come home to roost for the Ravens due to the poor deal structure they signed Flacco to . . . unless he too decides to restructure in order to help his team win, the Ravens are going to be in serious trouble next season.

Other than those two absurd deals, no one else is monopolizing 15% of their team's cap space ($23.95 million out of at least $160 million in cap space next season).

 

[kearly]

My feeling is that Seattle has probably already offered him something in this range, and if that's true, then I would say Russell's side is being a little unreasonable in playing hardball, especially if they're demanding $25M/yr or an unprecedented guarantee structure. All just a guess.

While it's true that Russell could probably milk the team (or someone else) for more by waiting, Cam Newton could've done the same thing by also deferring. Instead, he made a commitment to Carolina. And this is a guy who auctioned off his transfer paperwork in college!

Perhaps you like Newton a hell of a lot more than I do, but $20.7 million AYP for Cam isn't exactly my idea of a hometown discount. I think if Seattle made a similarly generous offer to Wilson, we wouldn't be talking about this right now. I think there is a pretty big gap between Wilson and Newton. I think it's okay for their pay to reflect that.

 

[kearly]

Brees's deal is already making it near impossible for the Saints to maintain a winning team, but there is a good chance he will restructure the final year of that deal if they continue to struggle.

The chickens will also come home to roost for the Ravens due to the poor deal structure they signed Flacco to . . . unless he too decides to restructure in order to help his team win, the Ravens are going to be in serious trouble next season.

Other than those two absurd deals, no one else is monopolizing 15% of their team's cap space ($23.95 million out of at least $160 million in cap space next season).

For starters, Most teams won't have $160 million cap next year, it's currently at $143 million, so probably about $150-151 million average next season.

15% is just a round number I picked at random. You can go 13% or 14% if you want. Point is, the list of QBs making over $20 million gets quite long starting next season.

I agree about Brees. He's worth the money, but it's clearly had an impact on their roster this offseason (Thanks for JG!).

I kind of agree about the Ravens. Flacco is obviously a burden on that deal, but their Coach / GM duo is flippin' awesome. They were the best team in the AFC last year, IMO. They are my pick for the AFC in 2015. They just keep drafting good players and coaching them up.

I agree on Flacco, but I don't think he will sink the franchise, especially if they can wiggle themselves off the hook somehow for those last few years of his deal (cut, trade, restructure, kick the can down the road with a new extension, etc.).

 

[hawknation2015]

My feeling is that Seattle has probably already offered him something in this range, and if that's true, then I would say Russell's side is being a little unreasonable in playing hardball, especially if they're demanding $25M/yr or an unprecedented guarantee structure. All just a guess.

While it's true that Russell could probably milk the team (or someone else) for more by waiting, Cam Newton could've done the same thing by also deferring. Instead, he made a commitment to Carolina. And this is a guy who auctioned off his transfer paperwork in college!

Maybe you like Newton a hell of a lot more than I do, but $20.7 million AYP for Cam isn't exactly my idea of a hometown discount.

(1) Newton could have demanded a deal topping $22 million per year because there are so few ready alternatives at the QB position. (2) He could have insisted on not reducing his base salary and corresponding cap hit this season in exchange for a $22.5 million signing bonus. And (3) he might have insisted on a much larger signing bonus, closer to the $37 million that Brees received.

What we are seeing now with the radical inflation of salaries at the QB position in proportion to the cap is basically unregulated capitalism at its worst. A disproportionate amount of the growth in production is going to a single member of some organizations (Saints, Ravens, and likely soon to be the Seahawks) in the same way CEO salaries have increased 127 times faster than the average worker in the US economy. If this is the new reality, then the league should do something to curb it for the benefit of other players in the organization.

For starters, Most teams won't have $160 million cap next year, it's currently at $143 million, so probably about $150-151 million average next season.

Where are you getting that? All of the most recent projects say that the cap will reach about $160 million in 2016, and probably more with the current rate of growth.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... n-in-2016/

 

[kearly]

My feeling is that Seattle has probably already offered him something in this range, and if that's true, then I would say Russell's side is being a little unreasonable in playing hardball, especially if they're demanding $25M/yr or an unprecedented guarantee structure. All just a guess.

While it's true that Russell could probably milk the team (or someone else) for more by waiting, Cam Newton could've done the same thing by also deferring. Instead, he made a commitment to Carolina. And this is a guy who auctioned off his transfer paperwork in college!

Maybe you like Newton a hell of a lot more than I do, but $20.7 million AYP for Cam isn't exactly my idea of a hometown discount.

(1) Newton could have demanded a deal topping $22 million per year because there are so few ready alternatives at the QB position. (2) He could have insisted on not reducing his base salary and corresponding cap hit this season in exchange for a $22.5 million signing bonus. And (3) he might have insisted on a much larger signing bonus, closer to the $37 million that Brees received.

What we are seeing now with the radical inflation of salaries at the QB position in proportion to the cap is basically unregulated capitalism at its worst. A disproportionate amount of the growth in production is going to a single member of some organizations (Saints, Ravens, and likely soon to be the Seahawks) in the same way CEO salaries have increased 127 times faster than the average worker in the US economy. If this is the new reality, then the league should do something to curb it for the benefit of other players in the organization.

Exactly.

That's exactly what I've been arguing this whole time. Even Cam is getting 20+. What then, is Wilson worth?

Where are you getting that? All of the most recent projects say that the cap will reach $160 million in 2016, and probably more with the current rate of growth.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... n-in-2016/

By "all" you must mean one off target projection from over a year ago. They overestimated 2015 and are very likely to be wildly overestimating 2016. It would need to rise about double the ten year average to hit $160 million next year. Don't get me wrong, I hope it does. But it's far from likely.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

I think paying any player 25+ million dollars severely hamstrings your chances of winning Super Bowls. The numbers, although the sample set only goes back 15 years or so, certainly back this. Nobody pays their QB top-dollar and wins Super Bowls. It just doesn't happen. Could we buck the odds? Sure. Why not? We have been doing just that for the last couple of seasons.

I would contend that the historical trends aren't applicable today due to the new CBA.

Ultimately, the implementation of the rookie cap has had a pretty radical effect on the distribution of salaries in the NFL. It was presumed, that by reducing rookie contracts, it would reallocate cap dollars to veterans. Which it did. But it also had the effect of truncating veteran careers for journeyman talents by allowing teams to get by with incredibly cheap rookie talents that wasn't all that far behind.

The reallocation of salary from top rookies and now journeyman veteran contracts have funnelled to the Alpha contracts (top talents and QBs). This distribution model has only been in place for 4 years. And it's steepening.

QBs simply couldn't take that big of a bite of the cap under the old system, because every year teams had to brace themselves for a huge allocation for draft picks. And the relative costs were so close between rookies and vets, that it made sense from a cap and skill perspective to opt for veteran talent. Now entire draft classes can be signed for what a first rounder and maybe one other draftee would command under the old system. Teams are saving tens of millions every year by not paying their draftees, and also not signing mediocre veterans who are legitimately better than the rookies replacing them but not by a wide enough margin.

Ultimately, the premise of the piece is kind of silly. We've known for a long time that Seattle has benefitted from not having to pay their QB. Everyone familiar with the NFL has understood that. But paying Wilson doesn't hurt our competitive chances anywhere near the alternative which is not to pay him, and have to try to rebuild another franchise QB.

It's penny wise and pound foolish. How many teams are loaded with expensive, talented players but don't have a franchise QB to complete them? Is that smart spending? The windows of opportunity for those teams is just being wasted.

We are a fan base that should just be smarter than this. How many long seasons have we spent pining for a franchise QB. We've been in QB Purgatory for decades at a time. Wasted the HOF careers of many fan favorites. And we're saying 5 million a year isn't worth avoiding another 10 year hiatus from postseason play? We should know better because we've endured the alternative. It's ugly. Look at the teams that are perennially selecting in the top 10 every year. They are mired in QB Purgatory. Why on earth would we WANT to go back there?

I liked what I read here. Thank you for formulating an organized response.

 

[hawknation2015]

Exactly.

That's exactly what I've been arguing this whole time. Even Cam is getting 20+. What then, is Wilson worth?

My point is the upper limit on what a franchise QB is "worth" is checked only by that player's (un)willingness to destroy his own team in the process.

 

[ctrcat]

My feeling is that Seattle has probably already offered him something in this range, and if that's true, then I would say Russell's side is being a little unreasonable in playing hardball, especially if they're demanding $25M/yr or an unprecedented guarantee structure. All just a guess.

While it's true that Russell could probably milk the team (or someone else) for more by waiting, Cam Newton could've done the same thing by also deferring. Instead, he made a commitment to Carolina. And this is a guy who auctioned off his transfer paperwork in college!

Perhaps you like Newton a hell of a lot more than I do, but $20.7 million AYP for Cam isn't exactly my idea of a hometown discount. I think if Seattle made a similarly generous offer to Wilson, we wouldn't be talking about this right now. I think there is a pretty big gap between Wilson and Newton. I think it's okay for their pay to reflect that.

The deal for Newton was perfect for team and player IMO. Like Newton or not, he could have gotten more on the open market given his resume and skillset. He arrived to the worst team of the decade, the post-lockout 2010 Panthers, is the only one of 8 fellow draftees from 2011 still on the team, and could have shunned the team for a bigger market or the lack of weapons or protection he'd been given to this point. Many other teams would go ga-ga over the potential given he only played one year of major CFB in a non-traditional system and still made two pro bowls and won two division titles so far with relatively little. His mettle was really tested in 2014 given multiple injuries and setbacks and he passed the test. This is not a post to convince you or anyone on Cam, that book has yet to be written, but there would have been a team(s?) to pay him more. JMO.

 

[DavidSeven]

Perhaps you like Newton a hell of a lot more than I do, but $20.7 million AYP for Cam isn't exactly my idea of a hometown discount. I think if Seattle made a similarly generous offer to Wilson, we wouldn't be talking about this right now. I think there is a pretty big gap between Wilson and Newton. I think it's okay for their pay to reflect that.

Certainly I think Russell is better, and yeah, I wouldn't call it a discount. But that's why you pay Russell $1M+ more per year and guarantee an extra $10-15M overall. I'm not necessarily a huge fan of Cam's, but he isn't exactly chopped liver either. I think he'd draw very generous offers on the open market. His size and versatility alone make him a fairly decent fit for any system. Is he on Russell and Andrew's level? No. But I'd definitely roll the dice on him over Kaepernick or Tannehill.

While you and I may agree that there are certain hard-to-define elements that put Russell quite a bit ahead of Cam, I am not sure that's the perception around the league.

 

[Hawkpower]

Perhaps you like Newton a hell of a lot more than I do, but $20.7 million AYP for Cam isn't exactly my idea of a hometown discount. I think if Seattle made a similarly generous offer to Wilson, we wouldn't be talking about this right now. I think there is a pretty big gap between Wilson and Newton. I think it's okay for their pay to reflect that.

Certainly I think Russell is better, and yeah, I wouldn't call it a discount. But that's why you pay Russell $1M+ more per year and guarantee an extra $10-15M overall. I'm not necessarily a huge fan of Cam's, but he isn't exactly chopped liver either. I think he'd draw very generous offers on the open market. His size and versatility alone make him a fairly decent fit for any system. Is he on Russell and Andrew's level? No. But I'd definitely roll the dice on him over Kaepernick or Tannehill.

While you and I may agree that there are certain hard-to-define elements that put Russell quite a bit ahead of Cam, I am not sure that's the perception around the league.

My thoughts as well.

Intangibles seem to go towards Russ, but is that cancelled out by Cam's obvious physical superiority?

I'm not so sure the league sees a huge gap between RW and Cam either.

Would we have gone to back to back SuperBowls with Cam at the helm? Debatable.

 

[Popeyejones]

I think the general consensus around the league is that Wilson >>>> Cam.

He's a better passer, just as good of a runner, and doesn't have an injury history. Save for Cam being built like a LB and having a rocket arm I don't think there's anything about Cam that anyone thinks is better than Wilson.

More so than anything the perception of Wilson being better though comes from the success of the Hawks as a team .

(FWIW I agree Wilson >>> Cam)

 

[AVL]

Are "we" trying to devalue the position or just the player?

 

[ctrcat]

^ Saying Cam has an injury history is a bit unfair IMO. Last year was just a surreal set of circumstances. He played with an injured ankle, supposedly, all the way back to college and recovering from that offseason surgery took a little longer than he thought, but his ankle is now, supposedly, better than it's been, ever. Anyone could have broken ribs playing football and anyone could get two back fractures in a car accident. Despite it all, he would have never missed even one game if it was up to him. In all, he's only missed two, ever, and both were 100% the choice of the franchise taking the choice away from him. If they weren't playing the Bucs in both games, he soldiers on and plays in both IMO.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Great qbs are cap-killers--Brady, Rothlesberg, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco(!?!?!?). You got to do a cost-benefit analysis and decide if the team is better or worse with one guy taking up LITERALLY a million % of the cap. And those teams decided he was and they paid him--just like the Hawks will. The team will still be good, they'll just be feebler once the new $ kicks in. If Wilson plays out his rookie pop, he'll be doing the team a fricken HUGE favor. He knows it, he knows the team will be better, he wants to play for a good team, obviously.