Paying Wilson May Hurt Seahawks Super Bowl Chances-Nemhauser

[Hawks46]

As far as the % argument, that is also bunk for very obvious reasons. QBs are getting paid more today across the board than they were even 10 years ago. Of course they would be, the NFL is much more of a passer's league in 2015 than it was in 2005. So when you are talking about QBs winning SB's while earning 13% or more of cap space, that pool of QBs was minuscule for most of the last 22 years, but is HUGE today where EVERY starting QB, even Alex Smith or Andy Dalton, is making 16+ million. Hence, this stat is about to do a 180 in a hurry. Especially since the current crop of rookie contract QBs (other than Wilson and Luck for another year) are extreme long shots to win.

There is actually only ONE quarterback in the entire league who is taking up more than 14% of his team's salary cap this season. That QB is Drew Brees, and that is only the case because the Saints unwisely pushed most of his cap hit into the final two years of his deal. That terrible contract structure is one of the reasons the Saints were seriously hampered this off-season, forcing them to trade several key contributors . . . including Jimmy Graham.

Last year, there were only two QBs making more than 14% of their team's cap: Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (14.2%).

Of the two QBs you mentioned, Dalton's cap hit does not reach $16 million until the 2018 season. Smith doesn't reach that amount until next year. Dalton's cap percentage last year was under 7%, while Smith's was only 3%. With the way their contracts are structured, neither one will ever burden their team with a cap hit above 11%.

Good point, and I think it's amusing and ironic that Brees was so upset they traded Graham, yet is taking up the highest percentage of his team's salary cap in the league. I just don't get it, these guys are college educated and QBs have to be extremely intelligent and process information amazing quick. Yet they don't seem to understand that there is only one size of pie for every team in the league and if they take half of it, that's less for everyone else to eat.

All these numbers are good as a guide line, but they don't really help the Hawks out too much. We're unique, and also built to Wilson's strengths and weaknesses. A lot of people theorize we can win with an average to good veteran QB and our defense and run game. The problem is that our OL is terrible at pass protection and we need a guy like Wilson who can mitigate that with his agility. Wilson is unique in that he scrambles to throw; most athletic QBs scramble to run.

Hawkblogger is right in one thing: Wilson hasn't proven he is an elite passer. Look at his playoff stats: they just aren't that great. This contract will get him from years 27 to 31. He won't necessarily slow down at 31, but it's coming and he better get good with his arm by then.

Wilson also needs to realize if he maximizes his money, then he'll never get that elite WR he wants and we'll never be able to pay his OL either. I don't blame the FO for the contract impasse: this thing can come crashing down in a real hurry if things don't go right.

If we "pay the man" all his money, then he turns out to be an above average passer, we've guaranteed him a lot of money we just can't get out of. At this point, it's obvious Wilson wouldn't give it back, like most players. When he does start to slow down, if he can't carry the team with his arm, we're going to be in salary cap hell and Wilson's contract will be a huge albatross around it's neck.

The other thing we're doing is relying on the very unique talents of Lynch. Don't be fooled....we really rely on Lynch's style of running to carry this team. He averages the least amount of yards BEFORE contact in the league: this OL doesn't pass block at an average level, and doesn't run block at an elite level. When Lynch slows down, Wilson better be on his game because the running game won't carry us to the same degree as it does now.

I really worry about what we'll look like when Lynch slows down. I theorize we could get by with two backs: one extremely shifty and fast back, and one sledgehammer to wear teams down. Watching Wilson work with Graham this year will be educational. I honestly don't think we should pay Wilson elite money until the team can discern that he can carry the team because he'll have to with all the money he takes up.

 

[camdawg]

There have been situations where vets have left and backups won Super Bowls within a few years. Montana and Favre come to mind. Although, I'm not sure we have Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers on our current roster. Not many other starters really leave their teams. It has worked out okay for SD after Brees left. The Pats did pretty well after Bledsoe. There is a sentiment that letting Russell get away automatically spells doom and gloom. Kip stated previously that 15 teams have QB's capable of winning a Super Bowl. I actually think we could win one with a few more than that.

We're built around having an awesome defense and running game. They have been the overriding keys to our success. The ballsy thing is to keep that together. We all want to keep Russell. But if you're offering me 25 million per year and 2 first round draft picks for him, with a decent chance of those being high picks, man I'm thinking hard about that. It took Pete and John two years to find a QB they could win a Super Bowl with. And we believe wholeheartedly in those guys. Don't we give them a pretty darn good shot at doing it again? If, and I know it is a substantial "if", they can find another QB and keep the rest of the team together, we rattle off rings. Not one, not two.....

Those players/scenarios are unfortunately pretty uncommon, and not something we can count on. Except for maybe the Raiders, there's no equivalent today to the wasteland of the Hugh Culverhouse Bucs, who had no idea how to groom Young, and therefore gave the 49ers a severely underappreciated asset. Assuming we'd still be halfway decent after giving up Russ, we most definitely can't count on multiple teams being morons and not taking someone of Aaron Rodgers' talent until pick 24.

There's a big reason the Packers were able to take him, and the Bolts were able to take/trade for Rivers: a QB heavy draft with two or more "can't miss" guys. If Alex Smith didn't exist, the 49ers take Rodgers at pick 1. If Rivers wasn't in the same draft class as Eli, the Bolts are stuck trying to sweet talk Eli and Archie and hoping they convince him to not hold out for an entire season. And the Bolts needed the first pick in the draft in order to get Eli or Phillip. We're not likely to be bad enough to have such a pick. And two first rounders aren't enough for a QB needy team at the top of the draft to pass up taking one. So a big key to the strategy you suggest is there has to be a QB heavy draft in the next couple. Otherwise we'll never get a guy who's good enough. Unless we get a once a decade fluke like Tom or Russ for the second time in a row. And that just isn't something we can count on.

So no, we don't give John and Pete a good shot to find the next Russ, because guys like him are extremely rare. You don't find QBs with a proven ability to quickly learn a new offense, and an ability to quickly join a team and be a respected leader, outside the top couple of picks. We are incredibly lucky everyone else only saw his height.

I think paying any player 25+ million dollars severely hamstrings your chances of winning Super Bowls. The numbers, although the sample set only goes back 15 years or so, certainly back this. Nobody pays their QB top-dollar and wins Super Bowls. It just doesn't happen. Could we buck the odds? Sure. Why not? We have been doing just that for the last couple of seasons.

Having just a game manager hamstrings your chances even more-see Cincy, or Schaub era Houston. True, the Broncos didn't win a Super Bowl with Peyton, but they got as close as they could without actually winning it. It's not like their idea was bad. Same with Green Bay-they could've easily won the Super Bowl this year. It took a comeback for the ages in our house to stop it from happening.

Most likely, we turn into the post 2000 Ravens. A team with a top defense and running game for years, that can't get it done because of deficiencies at QB. Or the sucky post 2002 Bucs, who still had a top defense for years after their Super Bowl season.

 

[theincrediblesok]

I dunno I thought Wilson's playoff stats are ok, I mean compared to Luck who's already considered an elite QB. 12TD to 6INT, compared to Luck's 9TD, 12 INT. If your talking about total yards then Wilson threw less and Luck only has 9 more yards than Wilson.

Whatever the FO decided I'm good with. There is alot of ifs all over the place concerning what would happen if we lost this person or not, but I'm excited to find out.

 

[Northwest Seahawk]

Wilson isn't going to get more than 24 mill a year if he try's he will be playing out his rookie deal for 1.5 and then get franchised next year. His only real leverage this year is a hold out and as of now that's not on the table. I will say this I'm very disappointed Wilson hired a baseball agent that's trying to make a name for himself and change how contracts are guaranteed/structured in the NFL that's not going to happen no FO would agree to that, so it's just a huge waste of everyone's time. Wilson imo has made a bad call with that decision and it could hurt his career long term. His best chance for success is right here in Seattle not convinced he can replicate that success with another team at least not instantly they will have to retool there whole offense around him something that is already done here even then success isn't guaranteed . If he's smart he will push this as far as he can then sign at the start of training camp or before the first preseason game.

 

[IndyHawk]

There have been situations where vets have left and backups won Super Bowls within a few years. Montana and Favre come to mind. Although, I'm not sure we have Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers on our current roster. Not many other starters really leave their teams. It has worked out okay for SD after Brees left. The Pats did pretty well after Bledsoe. There is a sentiment that letting Russell get away automatically spells doom and gloom. Kip stated previously that 15 teams have QB's capable of winning a Super Bowl. I actually think we could win one with a few more than that.

We're built around having an awesome defense and running game. They have been the overriding keys to our success. The ballsy thing is to keep that together. We all want to keep Russell. But if you're offering me 25 million per year and 2 first round draft picks for him, with a decent chance of those being high picks, man I'm thinking hard about that. It took Pete and John two years to find a QB they could win a Super Bowl with. And we believe wholeheartedly in those guys. Don't we give them a pretty darn good shot at doing it again? If, and I know it is a substantial "if", they can find another QB and keep the rest of the team together, we rattle off rings. Not one, not two.....

I think paying any player 25+ million dollars severely hamstrings your chances of winning Super Bowls. The numbers, although the sample set only goes back 15 years or so, certainly back this. Nobody pays their QB top-dollar and wins Super Bowls. It just doesn't happen. Could we buck the odds? Sure. Why not? We have been doing just that for the last couple of seasons.

There is another argument at play here. I do think there is a large number of fans, that if made to decide between winning another Super Bowl, or keeping Russell Wilson for the next decade, would choose Russell Wilson. There is certainly some value to that too.

ETA: Kip, you've made a post this week that I can't find now, that basically states that franchise QB's can and should basically get whatever they want, as this is what the model dictates. If this is the case, I contend that the model is broken, and will be exposed. The team that pulls it off correctly, lets their franchise QB walk, and proceeds to win anyways, will blaze a new trail. Do you think there is any chance that Schneider wants to be that trailblazer, and wants to take on that challenge?

This is more of what I've been trying to say,I'm glad to not be alone in this this.The part about fans wanting RW instead of Super Bowls over time is really good and seems to be true.

 

[hawknation2015]

$25 million, ugh.

"I think ultimately it comes down to the play," Wilson said. "Just let my play speak for itself, and let the rest take care of itself. Continue to love the game for what it is, continue to fight, continue to play. No matter how much I'm getting paid, whether it's $25 million or $1.5 million, I'll be ready to go."
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13172152

[tweet]https://twitter.com/johnmarkrodgers/status/615743046752206848[/tweet]
Nice troll, Mark.

That’s fine, but at some point the desire to stay in Seattle and the desire to get paid will conflict, especially if he’s serious about making $25 million per year — which is $3 million more per year than the current high-water mark in the NFL set two years ago by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -a-figure/

 

[peppersjap]

I'm all for these guys earning there money but if he is pushing to be paid higher than Aaron Rodgers then he is just being selfish. He has a great skill set but he is not the QB that Rodgers is. He has said everything right in his career but now seems to be going in a completely different direction. He says he is all about winning but the contract he seems to be pushing for could seriously hurt the organization. I believe he deserves 20m a year but I think when you go beyond that it is getting ridiculous. It is hard to believe what Miami paid Tannehill. I know Wilson is a very smart guy and has to realize what they already invested in him by going out and getting Jimmy Graham to make his life easier. Until this week I didn't have this opinion but now starting to wonder if he is buying into all the glitz with something like Ciara on his arm. I do know he will perform just as hard for us this year whether resigned or not but I'm actually starting to wonder if we might play the franchise tag thing next year and draft another guy. He is fantastic and I hope he stays here but we are a Defensive team and would rather see that stay in place.

 

[HeHateMe]

I agree

http://www.mic32.com/nfl-blog/2015/6/26 ... -territory

 

[erik2690]

$25 million, ugh

Are you assuming that he said as a direct sign telling what he is asking for? It's possible, but it seemed like he threw out a high number and his base. Mark seemed to be jabbing at the articles like the PFT one you quoted for jumping on that as some giveaway of his wants (maybe/maybe not), he was saying 'What would they write if he said 40?'. That's how it read to me.


I also, hate how massively they slash those interviews, more interested in the transcript honestly:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MartySmithESPN/status/615750738824695809[/tweet]

 

[hawknation2015]

$25 million, ugh

Are you assuming that he said as a direct sign telling what he is asking for? It's possible, but it seemed like he threw out a high number and his base. Mark seemed to be jabbing at the articles like the PFT one you quoted for jumping on that as some giveaway of his wants (maybe/maybe not), he was saying 'What would they write if he said 40?'. That's how it read to me.


I also, hate how massively they slash those interviews, more interested in the transcript honestly:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MartySmithESPN/status/615750738824695809[/tweet]

Nope, I just don't like to hear the number ($25 million) coming out of his mouth. I also don't like that to see his agent trying to deflect by throwing out a more preposterous number.

 

[erik2690]

I'm all for these guys earning there money but if he is pushing to be paid higher than Aaron Rodgers then he is just being selfish. He has a great skill set but he is not the QB that Rodgers is. He has said everything right in his career but now seems to be going in a completely different direction. He says he is all about winning but the contract he seems to be pushing for could seriously hurt the organization. I believe he deserves 20m a year but I think when you go beyond that it is getting ridiculous. It is hard to believe what Miami paid Tannehill. I know Wilson is a very smart guy and has to realize what they already invested in him by going out and getting Jimmy Graham to make his life easier. Until this week I didn't have this opinion but now starting to wonder if he is buying into all the glitz with something like Ciara on his arm. I do know he will perform just as hard for us this year whether resigned or not but I'm actually starting to wonder if we might play the franchise tag thing next year and draft another guy. He is fantastic and I hope he stays here but we are a Defensive team and would rather see that stay in place.

Wow, so the debate isn't really whether he's better than Rodgers, that's not what this is about in large part. Investing in Jimmy is not equivalent to paying Russ. It can transfer to dollars down the line I suppose.


And my favorite: "something like Ciara on his arm", how about you don't do that. First, "something"? She's a lady and his girlfriend. Blaming the GF might be the most lazy sports fan hot take you can pull. Let's not.

 

[hawknation2015]

I'm all for these guys earning there money but if he is pushing to be paid higher than Aaron Rodgers then he is just being selfish. He has a great skill set but he is not the QB that Rodgers is. He has said everything right in his career but now seems to be going in a completely different direction. He says he is all about winning but the contract he seems to be pushing for could seriously hurt the organization. I believe he deserves 20m a year but I think when you go beyond that it is getting ridiculous. It is hard to believe what Miami paid Tannehill. I know Wilson is a very smart guy and has to realize what they already invested in him by going out and getting Jimmy Graham to make his life easier. Until this week I didn't have this opinion but now starting to wonder if he is buying into all the glitz with something like Ciara on his arm. I do know he will perform just as hard for us this year whether resigned or not but I'm actually starting to wonder if we might play the franchise tag thing next year and draft another guy. He is fantastic and I hope he stays here but we are a Defensive team and would rather see that stay in place.

Wow, so the debate isn't really whether he's better than Rodgers, that's not what this is about in large part.

No one has topped Rodgers' $22 million APY in the last two years. So yes, the fact that Wilson is not the best QB in the game is relevant when every other QB who has signed an extension has stayed below that threshold.

 

[erik2690]

Nope, I just don't like to hear the number ($25 million) coming out of his mouth. I also don't like that to see his agent trying to deflect by throwing out a more preposterous number.

What is your definition of deflection? That again seems to assume that you just got some insider info that you weren't supposed to know. Maybe you did, but it's an assumption. And if you don't assume that then why deflection? Why not just making a sarcastic joke about media running with half baked assumptions? Do they not do that? This all rests on the idea that you think 25 was meaningful. Again, possible, but certainly not factual.

 

[erik2690]

No one has topped Rodgers' $22 million APY in the last two years. So yes, the fact that Wilson is not the best QB in the game is relevant when every other QB who has signed an extension has stayed below that threshold.

Sure, relevant, but the debate going on is not is Wilson better. Where have you seen this debate? He's better than Cam at 20+ and the cap has risen quite a bit and is rising. That's how you get to the Rodgers territory, not Rodgers v. Wilson. The other biggest guys signing in that period haven't been first extension guys mostly right? Do you not think Luck will get ~25 next year, does that mean everyone thinks he's better than Rodgers?

 

[hawknation2015]

Sure, relevant, but the debate going on is not is Wilson better. Where have you seen this debate? He's better than Cam at 20+ and the cap has risen quite a bit and is rising. That's how you get to the Rodgers territory, not Rodgers v. Wilson. The other biggest guys signing in that period haven't been first extension guys mostly right? Do you not think Luck will get ~25 next year, does that mean everyone thinks he's better than Rodgers?

Actually, several franchise QBs have signed their first extensions since Rodgers' deal set the $22 million threshold on April 27, 2013. And none of them have held their team hostage in order to surpass that benchmark.

In addition to Newton's recent extension, there have been the following first time extensions: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Alex Smith.

What will Luck want next year when his negotiations begin? I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if he demands less in order to give his team better cap flexibility. He just doesn't strike me as someone who will risk jeopardizing his team's future just so he can squeeze a few more million dollars per year out of the deal. We will have to wait and see.

 

[Hawkfan77]

Sure, relevant, but the debate going on is not is Wilson better. Where have you seen this debate? He's better than Cam at 20+ and the cap has risen quite a bit and is rising. That's how you get to the Rodgers territory, not Rodgers v. Wilson. The other biggest guys signing in that period haven't been first extension guys mostly right? Do you not think Luck will get ~25 next year, does that mean everyone thinks he's better than Rodgers?

Actually, several franchise QBs have signed their first extensions since Rodgers' deal set the $22 million threshold on April 27, 2013. And none of them have held their team hostage in order to surpass that benchmark.

In addition to Newton's recent extension, there have been the following first time extensions: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Alex Smith.

What will Luck want next year when his negotiations begin? I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if he demands less in order to give his team better cap flexibility. He just doesn't strike me as someone who will risk jeopardizing his team's future just so he can squeeze a few more million dollars per year out of the deal. We will have to wait and see.

Honest question, you think Wilson is holding the Hawks hostage right now?

 

[Hawkfan77]

I didn't watch his interview last night yet, but to me this is all much ado about nothing.

We have no idea what Wilson wants (or expects to actually get) and what the Hawks have actually offered. People like to believe that Wilson is asking for the moon and that he's dead set on becoming the #1 paid player in the NFL. Just media speculation. The FO has a reputation of being tight lipped. But now all of the sudden, we know numbers in the negotiations? I don't buy it. Just a long off-season, with rampant speculation based on literal real info.

 

[hawknation2015]

Sure, relevant, but the debate going on is not is Wilson better. Where have you seen this debate? He's better than Cam at 20+ and the cap has risen quite a bit and is rising. That's how you get to the Rodgers territory, not Rodgers v. Wilson. The other biggest guys signing in that period haven't been first extension guys mostly right? Do you not think Luck will get ~25 next year, does that mean everyone thinks he's better than Rodgers?

Actually, several franchise QBs have signed their first extensions since Rodgers' deal set the $22 million threshold on April 27, 2013. And none of them have held their team hostage in order to surpass that benchmark.

In addition to Newton's recent extension, there have been the following first time extensions: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Alex Smith.

What will Luck want next year when his negotiations begin? I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if he demands less in order to give his team better cap flexibility. He just doesn't strike me as someone who will risk jeopardizing his team's future just so he can squeeze a few more million dollars per year out of the deal. We will have to wait and see.

Honest question, you think Wilson is holding the Hawks hostage right now?

We will just have to wait and see, but I don't like the rumors (i.e. excessive guaranteed money, $30 million APY) and rhetoric (i.e. his agent quibbling with traditional new money distinctions) I am hearing so far. If he does refuse to sign an extension, forcing the Seahawks to decide between the non-exclusive and $25+ million exclusive tag, then I would say we are approaching it to a degree that other franchise QBs have not.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

People will believe just about anything they hear from the media. :?

 

[erik2690]

In addition to Newton's recent extension, there have been the following first time extensions: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Alex Smith.

Wilson is clearly better than most and why Flacco? He carried out Russell's possible plan all the way right? Even the guys that are close in talent signed 2 years ago, cap is up.