Penalty Breakdown

[seahawkfreak]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/o ... s-per-game

You want something to really piss you off. Scroll to the bottom and look at all the opponent's penalty stats. A couple weeks ago I thought that this wasn't happening to us again this year. Guess I was wrong.

 

[HommyHawk]

Wonder if refs are doing this to get year round training (and pay)

 

[Laloosh]

These include declined and offsetting penalties.







As you can see, opposing defenses are apparently very disciplined against us... or the refs aren't calling shit.

[edit] same source as OP

 

[Hawkpower]

Only losers complain about officiating. Winners overcome bad calls and bad breaks.

Beating one's chest and refusing to acknowledge the role terrible officiating can have on the outcome of a game is equally lame.

 

[Hawkpower]

These include declined and offsetting penalties.







As you can see, opposing defenses are apparently very disciplined against us... or the refs aren't calling shit.

[edit] same source as OP

Data doesn't lie.

That sucks.

 

[Hawks46]

I'm not sure what these stats really mean. I know that I've watched many games and thought that the Seahawks got the crappy end of the stick but I've always kinda chalked it up to me being a homer.
I don't really buy into any real conspiracy theory but I have wondered if there is one.
I've always thought that if there was one, at some point in time, a disgruntled NFL employee or Referee would have outed the info. To my knowledge that has never happened.
However when the stats are laid out as above, it makes you think, Hmmmmm

I reread what I wrote, not sure why I needed to discount the possibility of a "conspiracy". I believe in nothing of the sort. Just a horrible effort on the part of the referees. I have no explanation. No secret whispers before the game about how they would job the Seahawks. Just very poorly officiated. No whys or how comes are necessary.

If one believes in the premise that penalties occur on every play, referees must make internal decisions on where that line is going to be. Penalties during the play are almost exclusively judgement calls. Specifically in the case of holding, 5 to 0 is ridiculous. Maybe Arizona is better at disguising it?

I know this game is a blatant and egregious example, but why is this so consistent with us ? How is it that our opponents consistently have less penalties than us ? How is is that we have the two highest rated 4-3 DE's in the entire league, yet we draw the least amount of offensive holding penalties ?

How is it that we have the largest disparity of penalties between us and our opponents, 2 years running now ? It's also worth noting that we aren't even close to being the most penalized team in the league this year, yet we still have the highest disparity of penalties, and our opponents also have the least amount of penalties, both 2 years running ?

Typically, I'd say that AZ was the better team. I'm hardly the most homeristic of people, and I'm very critical of my teams, yet looking at that game, I can't honestly say the best team won, and that penalties didn't play a part. They absolutely did. I'm not complaining, but my questions above are honestly curious, and good analysis is warranted.

It's hard not to be a conspiracy theorist looking at the bigger picture. The only thing is, what motive could the NFL actually have ?

 

[Sgt Largent]

The Seahawks have benefitted from exactly four in-play judgment penalties against opposing defenses all season. The two called against Arizona doubled our season total. Conspiracy? Pay back for the years our DBs were "mugging" receivers? Or, maybe our WRs are not physical mismatches for most DBs and therefore there is no need to hold or interfere with them.

NFL referees call about 68% of offensive holding calls on first down. Only about 12% on third down. I find it unlikely that offensive linemen change their technique based on the down. It's more likely that the officials do not want to erase or award first downs on critical third downs so they let them play. Also, some offensive possessions never involve a third down so there are fewer of those plays to have a holding penalty called, but not a 5.5:1 ratio. The Seahawks particularly excel at brining the heat on third and medium-to-long. So, even though the holding on those downs has been sometimes blatant against our guys, the officials are simply reluctant to call it because it is third down.

Our two highest drafted linemen, Okung and Britt are responsible for 5 of 7 holding calls against our offensive line and 5 of 8 false starts called against our offensive line this year. Gilliam has not been called for holding or a false start this year. J.R. Sweezy is Mr. Unnecessary Roughness, but I think I like that about him. The TEs, WRs and RBs have been called for holding five times, almost as many as our offensive line. The talk of holding penalties being caused by our converts doesn't hold water: Gilliam, Sweezy and Nowack (or the Center of the week) have combined for two holding penalties all season. The talent may be in question, but they are not the ones killing drives with penalties.

The glaring area in penalties for and against Seattle is the lack of penalties committed against our offense. Defensive linemen don't have to fight as hard to get by our linemen, defensive backs don't have to grab & bump our receivers and overall the defenses are not afraid of anything we throw (or run) at them. Our plays are not complicated, which means the defense does not get caught up in mental errors as much. Nothing intricate for them to think about at all. It's a personnel issue and a play design issue in terms of not drawing as many penalties. Pete has even commented that he had the same phenomena at USC. It appears to be a by-product of his philosophy. But, another by-product of his philosophy is winning.

Thanks for contributing SoCal. Not a bad hypothesis. At first glance I might disagree with the correlation to his USC teams. While the penalty disparity may be continuing from his college days, one thing known about Pete's teams in college was the MANPOWER advantage he usually had. That wouldn't seem to jive with our offensive line and receivers being overmatched at the NFL level. Pete usually had a DISTINCT athletic advantage all over the field. All the horses as they say.

 

[Sgt Largent]

These include declined and offsetting penalties.







As you can see, opposing defenses are apparently very disciplined against us... or the refs aren't calling shit.

[edit] same source as OP

Nice work Laloosh. This really indicates how "mistake free" opposing defenses are playing.

In 9 games, 5 played perfectly, 2 made 1 mistake, and :sarcasm_on: two teams played really poor :sarcasm_off:

The Post-Snap Defense by Game Bar Chart is really illuminating.

6 games seem to be in "let them play" mode. In the 3 games they have called tighter, Seattle is disadvantaged 17 to 4, or 4.25:1 penalties against. That doesn't seem reasonable. Maybe the opposing coach is really hammering the officials before kickoff about our style? Which in my view is fine, but you emphasize an area for both teams equally in a perfect world.

Maybe Seattle has played some of the most disciplined defenses in the league...in a row...for years?

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

For whatever it is worth, I think the majority of us, would not like to put blame on the officiating but you can't watch that game and just say "the officials played no part of it"

And I think what most of what "whiners" and "complainers" are griping about is in what the OP states is the total lack of consistency.

As for theories, I don't really want to be that guy but you had Al Michaels quoted that the NFL doesn't want to give the Seahawks SNF/ Primetime games in Seattle... because of how easy it is for momentum to roll towards a Seahawks blow-out.

Vs the Cardinals, the Seahawks offense started off with at least 2 phantom penalties (Gilliam, Wilson) plus other ticky-tack holding penalties (Britt, Graham) which shouldn't have been penalties with some of the crap the Cards were getting away with vs the Seahawks D-Line.

The Seahawks started off getting a first down but then the flag for a Gilliam facemask put them at 1 and 25, and the Cards D is just too good to kind of come back from. That was momentum killing. The next Arizona drive, the drive down the field and Thomas makes an endzone INT. Aka Seahawks momentum.

For the next 3 drives, three back to back to back holding penalties on the 1st play of the drive. Plus, a delay of game on Wilson which by the way Arizona had their playclock hit zero 3 to 4 times... no penalties.

It was just a little fishy and yeah im not afraid to go there but its easy to think the Refs were stalling the Seahawks to "keep the game" close.

I think Arizona being able to capitalize a little too well on great field position and the safety that the Refs ate the blatant Intentional Grounding call on Wilson.

I think after it was 19-0 the Refs kind of backed off Seattle a little bit and let them breath and they were able to score a TD. I think at times Seahawks got some favorable calls to allow them to make a comeback and get back into to it. But when it seemed like the momentum was going to start running away after the Seahawks gained the lead, their were the Refs looking the other way and calling ticky tack penalties that seemed to come at the most opportune times for the Cards.


I'm not going to mask my feelings about it. Refs were simply horrible, inconsistently terrible, and they seemed they had an agenda to curry momentum to and from both teams to make it a game as well as protecting the ratings from a Seahawks blow out.

Despite all of that, the Seahawks still had a chance to win it in the end. Its still on them. They have to fight. They have to finish.

It is what it is. I said my piece. Time to move on to the 49ers

 

[Sgt Largent]

I'm not sure what these stats really mean. I know that I've watched many games and thought that the Seahawks got the crappy end of the stick but I've always kinda chalked it up to me being a homer.
I don't really buy into any real conspiracy theory but I have wondered if there is one.
I've always thought that if there was one, at some point in time, a disgruntled NFL employee or Referee would have outed the info. To my knowledge that has never happened.
However when the stats are laid out as above, it makes you think, Hmmmmm

I reread what I wrote, not sure why I needed to discount the possibility of a "conspiracy". I believe in nothing of the sort. Just a horrible effort on the part of the referees. I have no explanation. No secret whispers before the game about how they would job the Seahawks. Just very poorly officiated. No whys or how comes are necessary.

If one believes in the premise that penalties occur on every play, referees must make internal decisions on where that line is going to be. Penalties during the play are almost exclusively judgement calls. Specifically in the case of holding, 5 to 0 is ridiculous. Maybe Arizona is better at disguising it?

I know this game is a blatant and egregious example, but why is this so consistent with us ? How is it that our opponents consistently have less penalties than us ? How is is that we have the two highest rated 4-3 DE's in the entire league, yet we draw the least amount of offensive holding penalties ?

How is it that we have the largest disparity of penalties between us and our opponents, 2 years running now ? It's also worth noting that we aren't even close to being the most penalized team in the league this year, yet we still have the highest disparity of penalties, and our opponents also have the least amount of penalties, both 2 years running ?

Typically, I'd say that AZ was the better team. I'm hardly the most homeristic of people, and I'm very critical of my teams, yet looking at that game, I can't honestly say the best team won, and that penalties didn't play a part. They absolutely did. I'm not complaining, but my questions above are honestly curious, and good analysis is warranted.

It's hard not to be a conspiracy theorist looking at the bigger picture. The only thing is, what motive could the NFL actually have ?

The only thing I can imagine is some level of confirmation bias that all humans are subject to. Even us as we discuss this topic. The team gets a reputation for being a bully, over time it becomes an accepted norm, and their play becomes scrutinized on a level that distracts from the opponents infractions.

In discussing this particular game, as said already, could the league fear Seattle home game prime time blow outs? To get there, this would have to be discussed openly among the league office and officials and I just can't go there mentally. This would become the WWE/WWF? (no idea, "Pro" wrestling sucks) and I love this game too much to believe it. I'd have to stop watching. NO WAY.

 

[UK_Seahawk]

Only losers complain about officiating. Winners overcome bad calls and bad breaks.

Beating one's chest and refusing to acknowledge the role terrible officiating can have on the outcome of a game is equally lame.

My post was for the OP and he knows why.

 

[Sgt Largent]

In thinking about this more, a factor not considered is penalties as a percentage of opportunities. If we consistently run less plays offensively than our opponents, it may normalize somewhat the defensive disparities (can't be penalized when not on the field). Of course, this would make the offensive disparity worse. It may even out as a long term trend.

So quickly off the top of my head, if all of our offensive penalties did not count as a play run (minus the grounding):

In play penalty (Seattle 52 official plays plus 6 down over penalties not counted) (Arizona 84 official, 7 def penalty add)

Seattle Off
58? plays, 6 penalties (10.3%)

Arizona Off
91? plays, 0 penalties (0%)......UHHH

Seattle Def
91? plays, 7 penalties (7.7%)

Arizona Def
58? plays, 2 penalties (3.4%)

? indicates I didn't look it up but I'm close (I think).

Wonder if we looked at this with a two year trend, make some charts Laloosh, I suck at forum manipulation, look at my post count in 12 years :th2thumbs:

 

[Sgt Largent]

Only losers complain about officiating. Winners overcome bad calls and bad breaks.

Beating one's chest and refusing to acknowledge the role terrible officiating can have on the outcome of a game is equally lame.

My post was for the OP and he knows why.

No I don't know why. Maybe you have some beef with Sgt. Largent?

I am Sgt Largent - No . Here first, post way less, easy to confuse.

 

[Popeyejones]

I understand what you are saying but trying to write off the officiating completely when you watch a game like this one is as ignorant as blaming every loss on it or every win on luck.

Yeah, but even that ends up being a matter of perspective, which can often tell you more about the speaker than about what happened.

Examples:

* If you go on the Zone they're saying you guys still got the benefit of calls in that Cardinals game.

* Cardinals fans don't believe that you guys get hosed on calls, just you guys do.

Are we supposed to believe that they're all "motivated" in these beliefs and only you guys aren't "motivated"? C'mon, that's ridiculous.

*By way of example, It was the same thing in reverse after the Lions game, in which the known world including even some Hawks fans, KJ Wright, and Pete Carroll believed that the game had been won on a blown call, but that opinion was wildly unpopular among Hawks fans. Same with the fail mary, which Hawks fans still try to excuse, or with the blown call that allowed the 9ers to win the NFCCG against the Giants that some 9ers fans still try to talk away.

You're going to blame it on me being a 9ers fan (the common go-to; in the offseason I didn't like the Cary Williams signing because I was a 9ers fan, whatever), but I watched this game from start to finish, and I don't think the officiating in it stood out as particularly bad when compared to other games.

My point is that officiating is pretty high variance, and over the long-term evens out. Therefore, complaining about it when your team loses or is on the short side of variance is just pretty corny. Either you accept that, or you talk yourself into believing there's a conspiracy against your team because I don't know why.

 

[12thbrah]

One big call doesn't necessarily decide a game but when you have the first 5 drives for one team start 1st and 20+ that affects the whole strategy and flow of the game for one side. Its why the time of possession was so lopsided early on against the Cards.

 

[Sgt Largent]

I understand what you are saying but trying to write off the officiating completely when you watch a game like this one is as ignorant as blaming every loss on it or every win on luck.

Yeah, but even that ends up being a matter of perspective, which can often tell you more about the speaker than about what happened.

Examples:

* If you go on the Zone they're saying you guys still got the benefit of calls in that Cardinals game.

* Cardinals fans don't believe that you guys get hosed on calls, just you guys do.

Are we supposed to believe that they're all "motivated" in these beliefs and only you guys aren't "motivated"? C'mon, that's ridiculous.

*By way of example, It was the same thing in reverse after the Lions game, in which the known world including even some Hawks fans, KJ Wright, and Pete Carroll believed that the game had been won on a blown call, but that opinion was wildly unpopular among Hawks fans. Same with the fail mary, which Hawks fans still try to excuse, or with the blown call that allowed the 9ers to win the NFCCG against the Giants that some 9ers fans still try to talk away.

You're going to blame it on me being a 9ers fan (the common go-to; in the offseason I didn't like the Cary Williams signing because I was a 9ers fan, whatever), but I watched this game from start to finish, and I don't think the officiating in it stood out as particularly bad when compared to other games.

My point is that officiating is pretty high variance, and over the long-term evens out. Therefore, complaining about it when your team loses or is on the short side of variance is just pretty corny. Either you accept that, or you talk yourself into believing there's a conspiracy against your team because I don't know why.

Gibberish....Ahh it's a matter of perspective, similar to every conversation about any topic in the history of mankind. What a revelation.

If your take is that you watched Arizona run 91 mistake free plays in the heat of battle, as opposed to the opponent being flagged fully 10% of the time, and that doesn't "particularly" stand out to you as an (ahem) "unbiased" observer....not only that but it's a reflection of a persons character if they could ever possibly disagree...Yep, ironically, it does say more about a person...You follow this up questioning peoples personal motivations in an effort to disregard the authenticity of the question? If I love dogs, and donate to Dog Lovers Inc. should the purity of my soul be challenged because I didn't donate to every other member of the animal kingdom in the world? I couldn't care less about ear wigs. There are lots of us on the planet, someone else can carry that torch.

Further, the idea that a play called incorrectly at the very end of a game somehow carries more weight than anything that happens in the 1st through 3rd quarters and therefore may be nominated for "robbery" status is patently absurd..OBJECTIVELY. Are the first 45 minutes pregame and teams start at 0 to 0 in the 4th Quarter? All of it counts unless I missed the memo. 1 point matters, Win/Loss. There is no Soccer aggregate scoring voodoo in place. It's not a 162 game season. It all evens out when, over 2 years? 10 years? It doesn't even out over every game, without question.

Go look through the history of the league and show me how many teams win or lose by 2+ scores week after week so as to negate or minimize any good or bad breaks from making any difference, where the amount of games played is, in terms of relevant statistical average, not even an eye blink. Nevermind how huge home field advantage is, or the one and done nature of the playoffs in this league. The difference between 8-8 and 11-5 could be 3 measly possessions.

There's some decent trend analysis in here in skeleton form without this goobledegook. Leave your agenda hat at the door or just smirk and move on.

Fans of all teams the world over moan and complain about NFL officiating, but trying look at it objectively with numbers is out of bounds and a character flaw?

 

[Popeyejones]

Gibberish....Ahh it's a matter of perspective, similar to every conversation about any topic in the history of mankind. What a revelation.

No, you're over-generalizing. If you don't think perspective and motivations have to be weighted when every single week at least some proporition of fans of every losing team are griping about officiating then I don't know what to tell you.

If your take is that you watched Arizona run 91 mistake free plays in the heat of battle

So is that a firm number now, or still based on memory? I think part of the problem is that for work on most days I'm engaging in quantitative data analysis, so I 1) know how serious a problem "motivation" can be (I have to fight against it all the time), and also know that 2) most statistical analyses are ultimately junk, despite presenting the veneer of objectivity on the back end.

I'm not faulting you for looking at penalty totals, I'm merely suggesting that they are not the proof you may prefer them to be.

and that doesn't "particularly" stand out to you as an (ahem) "unbiased" observer

1) Yes, while watching I noticed the disparities in penalites and I admittedly wasn't bean counting missed calls, but I saw the same thing that I think most Seahawks fans see most weeks: A really good but surprisingly undisciplined team that shoots themselves in the foot a lot with penalties. When you guys win you complain about it not getting "cleaned up" and how it's an ongoing problem, and when you lose you blame the refs.

2) You SERIOUSLY believe that I'm more motivated to see the Seahawks lose than you are to see the Seahawks win? I think you'll either have to argue against my belief in "motivation" in making these arguments (as you first do) or argue for it, but once you allow that door to open in your own argumentation (as you've done here) it will inevitably smack you in the face. So it goes.

Further, the idea that a play called incorrectly at the very end of a game somehow carries more weight than anything that happens in the 1st through 3rd quarters and therefore may be nominated for "robbery" status is patently absurd..OBJECTIVELY. Are the first 45 minutes pregame and teams start at 0 to 0 in the 4th Quarter? All of it counts unless I missed the memo. 1 point matters, Win/Loss.

People who know what they're doing put more weight on things at the end of games because variance in win probability decreases over time as a game goes on. It's not a conspiracy, it's pretty simple. Although it wold be convenient if it were not the case, plays in NFL games are not independent events. For that reasons, in an ultimately close game, a blown call that leads to 7 points on the first play of the game (while really crappy) is MUCH better for the team on the losing side of that blown call than a blown call that leads to seven points on the last play of the game. If it happens on the first play you have the whole game -1 play to be reactive to it; on the last play you have zero plays.

As for your 0-0 example, if you actually write it out the mistake you're making is pretty obvious and non-contentious: scoring 7 points in a 0-0 game in the first quarter improves your win probability less than scoring 7 points in a 0-0 game in the 4th quarter.

To argue otherwise is "OBJECTIVELY" (your word, and your all caps) preposterous.

Go look through the history of the league and show me how many teams win or lose by 2+ scores week after week so as to negate or minimize any good or bad breaks from making any difference, where the amount of games played is, in terms of relevant statistical average, not even an eye blink. Nevermind how huge home field advantage is, or the one and done nature of the playoffs in this league. The difference between 8-8 and 11-5 could be 3 measly possessions.

Mostly off-topic, but yeah, this is what caused Bill Barnwell to argue that the blown call at the end of the Lions game was statistically worth about .7 wins for the Seahawks on the season.

Fans of all teams the world over moan and complain about NFL officiating, but trying look at it objectively with numbers is out of bounds and a character flaw?

I never made that claim at all. I suppose it would be easier for you if I did, but I did not. Sorry.

 

[Laloosh]

If your take is that you watched Arizona run 91 mistake free plays in the heat of battle

So is that a firm number now, or still based on memory? I think part of the problem is that for work on most days I'm engaging in quantitative data analysis, so I 1) know how serious a problem "motivation" can be (I have to fight against it all the time), and also know that 2) most statistical analyses are ultimately junk, despite presenting the veneer of objectivity on the back end.

I'm not faulting you for looking at penalty totals, I'm merely suggesting that they are not the proof you may prefer them to be.

The actual number was 84. In 84 plays, AZ's offense was called for 1 post-snap penalty. Looking at their first two drives, there were plenty to be found as I showed in another thread.

and that doesn't "particularly" stand out to you as an (ahem) "unbiased" observer

1) Yes, while watching I noticed the disparities in penalites and I admittedly wasn't bean counting missed calls, but I saw the same thing that I think most Seahawks fans see most weeks: A really good but surprisingly undisciplined team that shoots themselves in the foot a lot with penalties. When you guys win you complain about it not getting "cleaned up" and how it's an ongoing problem, and when you lose you blame the refs.

2) You SERIOUSLY believe that I'm more motivated to see the Seahawks lose than you are to see the Seahawks win? I think you'll either have to argue against my belief in "motivation" in making these arguments (as you first do) or argue for it, but once you allow that door to open in your own argumentation (as you've done here) it will inevitably smack you in the face. So it goes.

Isn't it possible that most fans who don't have a dog in the fight don't pay much attention to the penalties that are not called? I mean, you see it as Seattle shooting themselves in the foot but if the refs had called a few of the penalties that I mentioned above, it could easily be AZ fans going on about the same thing and people like yourself would be talking about them shooting themselves in the foot.

If they're not called, they never happened, right? In this game, I do see it as the refs kneecapping Seattle early and that's 1) because the facemask on Gilliam was a horrible call and 2) they didn't call it both ways. AZ never had to overcome the penalties that they committed because they weren't flagged for them.

I'm fine with flagging my team, just call them both ways if they're there. Didn't happen in that game.

Linking to my thread just to illustrate my response here. It goes beyond the charts. I don't think that charts explain it away. I think that watching the plays and seeing the lack of consistency in the officiating does explain a lot of what we saw however.

Here are the plays from AZ's first couple of drives where they played "penalty free" football... viewtopic.php?f=2&t=118314

 

[Sgt Largent]

If your take is that you watched Arizona run 91 mistake free plays in the heat of battle

So is that a firm number now, or still based on memory? I think part of the problem is that for work on most days I'm engaging in quantitative data analysis, so I 1) know how serious a problem "motivation" can be #I have to fight against it all the time#, and also know that 2) most statistical analyses are ultimately junk, despite presenting the veneer of objectivity on the back end

Lets say I'm a couple off 0/89 = 0, 0/94 = 0. I see what you mean

I'm not faulting you for looking at penalty totals, I'm merely suggesting that they are not the proof you may prefer them to be

I looked at penalties as a percentage of plays as well. Do we need to write a forum thesis before you will sign off on the acceptable parameters? What proof am I looking for?

and that doesn't "particularly" stand out to you as an #ahem# "unbiased" observer

1) Yes, while watching I noticed the disparities in penalites and I admittedly wasn't bean counting missed calls, but I saw the same thing that I think most Seahawks fans see most weeks: #b#A really good but surprisingly undisciplined team that shoots themselves in the foot a lot with penalties When you guys win you complain about it not getting "cleaned up" and how it's an ongoing problem, and when you lose you blame the refs

You are probably right here. Lets go with discipline. Referee Robots don't make mistakes. Nice to know your confirmation bias works just as well as every other human being's on the planet.

2) You SERIOUSLY believe that I'm more motivated to see the Seahawks lose than you are to see the Seahawks win? I think you'll either have to argue against my belief in "motivation" in making these arguments #as you first do# or argue for it, but once you allow that door to open in your own argumentation #as you've done here# it will inevitably smack you in the face. So it goes

Motivation for what? I'm not leaving out data to fit an agenda# This is not a complex climate model where the answer is some number I have in my head that I'm trying to achieve with number fudging# I'm motivated to spend brain cells on it because it's the team I follow# Hey man, crank some numbers out yourself, using any parameters you want.

:sarcasm_on: What's your motivation for even corresponding on an opposing teams forums? Can you be trusted? :sarcasm_off:

#quote="Sgt Largent"#
Further, the idea that a play called incorrectly at the very end of a game somehow carries more weight than anything that happens in the 1st through 3rd quarters and therefore may be nominated for "robbery" status is patently absurd##OBJECTIVELY# Are the first 45 minutes pregame and teams start at 0 to 0 in the 4th Quarter? All of it counts unless I missed the memo# 1 point matters, Win/Loss[/quote]

People who know what they're doing put more weight on things at the end of games because variance in win probability decreases over time as a game goes on# It's not a conspiracy, it's pretty simple# Although it wold be convenient if it were not the case, plays in NFL games are not independent events# For that reasons, in an ultimately close game, a blown call that leads to 7 points on the first play of the game #while really crappy# is MUCH better for the team on the losing side of that blown call than a blown call that leads to seven points on the last play of the game# If it happens on the first play you have the whole game -1 play to be reactive to it; on the last play you have zero plays

As for your 0-0 example, if you actually write it out the mistake you're making is pretty obvious and non-contentious: scoring 7 points in a 0-0 game in the first quarter improves your win probability less than scoring 7 points in a 0-0 game in the 4th quarter#

To argue otherwise is "OBJECTIVELY" #your word, and your all caps# preposterous

And another thing...You got me here... That's why I didn't bring up anything about who shoulda/coulda/woulda won# The topic was specifically created to NOT talk about individual events within the game# Nowhere did I claim that this call was missed or that call should not have been made. That always devolves into a No YOU..No YOOUUU bunch of nonsense based solely on personal motivation, as you are claiming here. The conversation was supposed to be about the game as a whole# But you wanted to whip out your tiny Detroit for all to see. (motivation?)

#quote="Sgt Largent"#
Go look through the history of the league and show me how many teams win or lose by 2+ scores week after week so as to negate or minimize any good or bad breaks from making any difference, where the amount of games played is, in terms of relevant statistical average, not even an eye blink# Nevermind how huge home field advantage is, or the one and done nature of the playoffs in this league# The difference between 8-8 and 11-5 could be 3 measly possessions[/quote]

...Your Barnwell thing here.. Yep, he's looking at win probability. Not a thing I was looking at. I was looking at the likelihood the penalty disparity would be so high, and before you start in I made no claim as to the why until way down the chain where I outright deny the possibility the outcome was on purpose. Probably because my love for FOOTBALL trumps my love for the Seahawks. There's a motivation for you.

Fans of all teams the world over moan and complain about NFL officiating, but trying look at it objectively with numbers is out of bounds and a character flaw?

I never made that claim at all. I suppose it would be easier for you if I did, but I did not. Sorry.

Sure you did, something about what it says about the individual.

Anyway, I could probably have a beer with you and have a good time...for awhile.

PEACE OUT

BTW I absolutely WRECKED the formatting of this post because browser refresh screwed me over. My apologies.

 

[Sgt Largent]

If your take is that you watched Arizona run 91 mistake free plays in the heat of battle

So is that a firm number now, or still based on memory? I think part of the problem is that for work on most days I'm engaging in quantitative data analysis, so I 1) know how serious a problem "motivation" can be (I have to fight against it all the time), and also know that 2) most statistical analyses are ultimately junk, despite presenting the veneer of objectivity on the back end.

I'm not faulting you for looking at penalty totals, I'm merely suggesting that they are not the proof you may prefer them to be.

The actual number was 84. In 84 plays, AZ's offense was called for 1 post-snap penalty. Looking at their first two drives, there were plenty to be found as I showed in another thread.

and that doesn't "particularly" stand out to you as an (ahem) "unbiased" observer

1) Yes, while watching I noticed the disparities in penalites and I admittedly wasn't bean counting missed calls, but I saw the same thing that I think most Seahawks fans see most weeks: A really good but surprisingly undisciplined team that shoots themselves in the foot a lot with penalties. When you guys win you complain about it not getting "cleaned up" and how it's an ongoing problem, and when you lose you blame the refs.

2) You SERIOUSLY believe that I'm more motivated to see the Seahawks lose than you are to see the Seahawks win? I think you'll either have to argue against my belief in "motivation" in making these arguments (as you first do) or argue for it, but once you allow that door to open in your own argumentation (as you've done here) it will inevitably smack you in the face. So it goes.

Isn't it possible that most fans who don't have a dog in the fight don't pay much attention to the penalties that are not called? I mean, you see it as Seattle shooting themselves in the foot but if the refs had called a few of the penalties that I mentioned above, it could easily be AZ fans going on about the same thing and people like yourself would be talking about them shooting themselves in the foot.

If they're not called, they never happened, right? In this game, I do see it as the refs kneecapping Seattle early and that's 1) because the facemask on Gilliam was a horrible call and 2) they didn't call it both ways. AZ never had to overcome the penalties that they committed because they weren't flagged for them.

I'm fine with flagging my team, just call them both ways if they're there. Didn't happen in that game.

Linking to my thread just to illustrate my response here. It goes beyond the charts. I don't think that charts explain it away. I think that watching the plays and seeing the lack of consistency in the officiating does explain a lot of what we saw however.

Here are the plays from AZ's first couple of drives where they played "penalty free" football... http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=118314

I used the 91 value or whatever Laloosh because I assumed they were not counted as an official play when our defense was flagged for a penalty, unless declined. I admittedly did not go back to verify as 4 plays on either side of that coin really changes nothing.