Sgt Largent":31zeihp5 said:
How could it ever be evenly officiated, you just educated us on the high variance we can expect week in and week out. Nobody gives a shit about 100 year trends in sports. (a bit facetious I know, been working all night, and bit punch drunk).
Even in a high variance system in a normal distribution the highest proportion of games would be evenly officiated.
So, from that we'd take away to conclusions (which are my two takeaways when watching officiating and 9ers games):
1) When in doubt, the most likely scenario is a game WAS evenly officiated, and rather than the system being biased, it is me as a fan who is biased, which is pretty obvious, as "bias" is nothing if not a requisite part of fandom. For this we apply all my talk about false positives and false negatives (which I also have to apply to myself when in doubt about officiating for 9ers games, being a fan and all).
2) When in extreme doubt, perhaps a now more likely scenario is high variance and an unevenly officiated game (or a game in which the uneven officiating happens too late for a team to adjust, or the penalties of uneven officating affect one team more than the other in a myriad of ways). For this, one basically has to accept that it is a requisite feature of a high variance system, and that in the longer term it evens out. As for why it doesn't always *feel* like it evens out, here we'd apply what I was talking about in terms of "stickiness" as well as false positives and false negatives.
Basically as I see it there are two options:
A) Accept the above
B) Resort to conspiracies
The problem with "b" is that it's an incredibly complicated way to explain an incredibly obvious and simple phenomenon of fans being biased for the teams they root for.
Most conspiracy theories are presented as simple answers that unwittingly contain wildly complex Rube Goldberg machinations beneath the surface.
Here's an example:
When rooting out conspiracies I think that penalties against a teams' opponents is a better measure than penalties against a team, as teams' actions shouldn't normalize across a season the way their opponents' do. (e.g. the Seahawks should have an above average # of penalties against them because even their fans talk about them being a talented but undisciplined team, whereas their opponents should end up average). Ideally you'd be wanting to also control for opponents' penalties in an average game versus the focal opponent, and also you'd be wanting to look at penalties per play, as each play is an "opportunity" for a penalty and that's really important. We can't do the former, without work, but someone has already done the latter.
If we take a first glance at this, we'll see the Seahawks have the least penalties per play called against their opponents in the NFL. Hey! We might have evidence of a conspiracy.
We have two problems with our conspiracy though:
1) The Seahawks are tied for last for opponents penalties called when playing them with Carolina and Atlanta, so our conspiracy has to include why the NFL is trying to keep down ALL three of these teams, not just our focal team. Likewise for our conspiracy to make sense we should also try to explain why the league is trying to prop up Arizona, Indianapolis, and Miami.
2) Our second problem is that if this is a conspiracy against Carolina, Atlanta and Seattle and for Arizona, Indianapolis, and Miami, it's a really crappily enacted conspiracy, as across all the teams, as we'd expect in a non-conspiratorial system, a shockingly normal distribution is maintained, and the variance in it is incredibly low.
In fact, there are 15 teams (almost perfectly half of the NFL) for which their opponents are penalized between 5 and 6 times per game. That includes Seattle, Atlanta and Carolina whose opponents are penalized on .04% of plays, and Oakland, Detroit, San Francisco, the Jets, Denver, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago, and Dallas whose opponents are penalized on .05% of plays.
To wrap up, if this is a conspiracy we have to explain why 1) it's a conspiracy against Seattle, Carolina, and Atlanta and a conspiracy for Arizona, Indianapolis, and Miami and 2) why it's such a remarkably ineffective conspiracy in influencing outcomes that's also so perfectly hidden by looking exactly like what we'd expect from random chance?
El fin. :lol: