Playoff Scenario Discussion

[byau]

If we go 12-4 (wins over Az and St.L):
If Dallas doesn’t win out, we’re guaranteed a 1-seed (1v1 tiebreaks vs. Det, GB, and Az, the only other possible 12-4 teams).

If Dallas DOES win out…
If one of Detroit or Green Bay also wins out (12-4) (they can’t both win out as they play in wk.17), this leads to a three-way tie with them, us, and Dallas. Hilariously, despite Dallas beating us 1v1 earlier this season, we actually win the three-team tiebreaker with either NFCN team based on division record, and Dallas loses the 1v1 tiebreak vs either GB or Det, and thus get knocked down to the 3-seed while Det/GB takes the 2 and we get the 1-seed.
If both Detroit and GB go 11-4-1 or worse (i.e. don’t win out), we lose tiebreakers to Dallas and land in the 2-seed.

If we go 11-5 (loss to Az):
We can’t finish higher than a 5-seed (Az guaranteed at least 12-4 finish to our maximum 11-5, even if we go 2-0 vs them)
If Dallas goes 12-4, they win the division and we get a 5-seed, unless Detroit and GB both finish 11-4-1, in which case we get a 6-seed.

If Dallas goes 11-5:
If Philly DOESN’T win out, Dallas wins the East and we get a 5-seed, unless Det and GB finish 11-4-1, in which case we get a 6-seed.
If Dallas goes 11-5 AND Philadelphia wins out, Philly wins the division on div. record. And:
If the NFCN teams both go 11-5 or better, then we end up in ANOTHER hilarious situation wherein Dallas misses the PLAYOFFS on a three-way tiebreaker with us and an NFCN team. We get the 5th seed.
If one of the NFCN teams goes 10-6, Dallas wins the 1v1 tiebreak against us and takes the 5th seed and we’re knocked down to 6th.
If both NFCN teams go 11-4-1 (with a tie against each other in wk.17), we actually miss the playoffs… but fortunately this is (almost) the only possible way we miss at 11-5. (There’s one other way, but it’s virtually impossible.)
If Dallas goes 10-6, we get a 5-seed, barring GB and Det finishing 11-4-1, in which case we get a 6-seed.
If Dallas ties one game, it doesn’t really change anything. They win the division at 11-4-1, and they miss the playoffs at 10-5-1. If they somehow go 10-4-2, AND Philly goes 11-5, AND Det and GB both go 11-4-1 (yes, this means three ties between these three teams in the last two weeks of the season), then we miss the playoffs. Yeah.

If we go 11-5 (loss to StL):
If Az beats SF in wk.17, things are the same as if we went 11-5 with a loss to Az.
If Az LOSES to SF, we win the division and get a 2- or 3-seed depending on Dallas. (I won’t go into detail; you understand this by now.)

If we go 10-6:
Things are actually pretty simple.
If Philly loses the division to Dallas AND goes 10-6 or worse, we make the playoffs. 5 vs. 6 seed is obvious and strictly based on record, as we own all non-Dallas tiebreaks. If they go better than 10-6 and the NFCN teams do as well, we miss the playoffs. This is pretty straightforward.
If Philly wins the division, we’re competing with the NFCN teams and Dallas for a WC spot.
If we and Dallas are the only 10-6 teams, we miss the playoffs.
If we, Dallas, and an NFCN team are all 10-6, we win the three-way tiebreaks and Dallas misses the playoffs.

Edit:In the event of a three team tie for #1, we win due to better CONFERENCE record, not divisional record.

Simple version:
*Step 1: Seahawks win out
*Step 2: Green Bay OR Detroit wins out
*Step 3: Seahawks get #1 seed
*Step 4: Superb Owl

Really simple version: Go 1-0 every week, let everything else fall into place.

Fabulous work here NJSeahawk. Wow.

Any chance this can be its own topic and get stickied and updated? :th2thumbs:

 

[TXHawk]

Every scenario but one favors the Hawks to get the #1 seed if we go 12-4. Just take care of business and the NFC road to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle again.

 

[hieroglyphics]

Hoping the Cowboys lose.

They beat up the Seahawks in a way that no other team has over the past 3 seasons.

 

[JonRud]

if this plays out the way we hope there is a big difference between being the #1 seed or #2 in the Divisional Round.

The #1 seed will likely host the NFC South Winner, Cardinals or Lions.

The #2 seed will likely host the Packers or Cowboys.

I would rather play the first group of teams in the first game.

 

[HawkGA]

if this plays out the way we hope there is a big difference between being the #1 seed or #2 in the Divisional Round.

The #1 seed will likely host the NFC South Winner, Cardinals or Lions.

The #2 seed will likely host the Packers or Cowboys.

I would rather play the first group of teams in the first game.

Good point.

 

[KitsapGuy]

Hoping the Cowboys lose.

They beat up the Seahawks in a way that no other team has over the past 3 seasons.

The Cowboys did beat the Seahawks this season, of course, but they are also 3-4 in Dallas this year. They have also won just one playoff game in the last 19 years, and Russell Wilson won three of those just a year ago. The Cowboys have their number a bit lately, having beaten the Seahawks in four of their last five meetings, but if we're going to point to history, one may point no farther than that magic un-holdable football in that one playoff game that these two teams have ever played against each other in.

A player saying, "We can only control what we can control' might be cliche, but in this case it's also really all that matters. The idea that Dallas's record will affect Seattle in any way is a stretch for right now. First the Seahawks have to win their next two games, then the Cowboys need to win their next two games, and then the Packers and Lions both have to lose their next game in Week 16. And if all that happens, then Seattle and Dallas both need to win their division round games and then, and only then, will the Seahawks travel to a playoff destination where the home team is 4-4 at best, and the road team would be 5-3.

 

[Schadie001]

If you are still confused this website breaks it down great and easy to understand.

http://sea.247sports.com/Bolt/Painting- ... e-33882865

 

[NJSeahawk]

 

[Hasselbeck]

Great pic NJ.. but this is probably the easiest explanation for everyone..

IF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS

Seahawks beat Cardinals
Packers beat Bucs
Lions beat Bears

The Seahawks simply have to beat the Rams, and GB/DET cannot end in a tie.. and home field is theirs. Dallas/Indy then becomes completely moot to the Seahawks seeding.

I think this is the most likely scenario to happen.

 

[NJSeahawk]

Great pic NJ.. but this is probably the easiest explanation for everyone..

IF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS

Seahawks beat Cardinals
Packers beat Bucs
Lions beat Bears

The Seahawks simply have to beat the Rams, and GB/DET cannot end in a tie.. and home field is theirs. Dallas/Indy then becomes completely moot to the Seahawks seeding.

I think this is the most likely scenario to happen.

lol, now all we need is a kinesthetic and auditory model, and I believe we have covered all the fields. :th2thumbs:

 

[byau]

Great pic NJ.. but this is probably the easiest explanation for everyone..

IF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS

Seahawks beat Cardinals
Packers beat Bucs
Lions beat Bears

The Seahawks simply have to beat the Rams, and GB/DET cannot end in a tie.. and home field is theirs. Dallas/Indy then becomes completely moot to the Seahawks seeding.

I think this is the most likely scenario to happen.

TOO MANY SCENARIOS !! MY BRAIN HURTS!!!!

I think even your easy one makes my brain hurt..just because my brain is full of all the other scenarios

For me this is what I'm sticking too, I believe in the order of importance


Cheer for the Seahawks for everything!

But of course ... not to mention we need to win out


Cheer against Cowboys for everything!

Dallas holds the tiebreaker over us (BOO CARDINALS!)

Cheer against Cardinals for everything!

They currently have the best record and are in our division (BOO CARDINALS)

Cheer for BOTH the Lions and Packers this week! One needs to be 12-4 !

As long as one of them finishes 12-4, we are good. Because in the case Dallas is 12-4, this gives us a 3-way tiebreaker which we win. If Dallas does not reach 12-4, we win the tiebreaker with Lions and we win the tiebreaker with Packers

Don't Cheer for the Lions and Packers At The Same Time Next Week In Their Last Game Of The Season

ONE OF THEM NEEDS TO LOSE! Doesn't matter which.


The Cowboys are very very very VERY not-good at home

Just wanted to point that out.


This post will self-destruct in 6 days

 

[kidhawk]

:bump:

 

[idahohawk]

I predict there will be three posts like this a day from now until the end of the season. Anybody want to take the over or the under?

I'll take the over and love every minute of it. Great time to be a Seahawk.

 

[kidhawk]

I predict there will be three posts like this a day from now until the end of the season. Anybody want to take the over or the under?

I'll take the over and love every minute of it. Great time to be a Seahawk.

Hopefully people will just continue to add to this thread instead of creating new ones. That would certainly make things a lot clearer for those wanting to know the current scenarios.

Of course I wouldn't take the under either, but one can hope

 

[kidhawk]

From NFL AM....a scenario in which Detroit beats the Packers in week 17 and the Packers, at 11-5, miss the playoffs

[urltargetblank]http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-am/0ap3000000444722/NFC-Playoff-Predictor[/urltargetblank]

I'm not sold on it happening, but it's an interesting scenario none the less. It also has us winning out and getting the #1 seed.

 

[Hawks46]

The way Dallas are at home this year, I wouldn't be too concerned about being the no 2 seed if they are at No 1

Exactly what I was thinking. 1st or 2nd seed would be huge for us. Would let guys like Unger and Okung rest up a bit for a playoff run.