Random Thoughts on the Denver game

[capncrunch]

Fantastic game; beat the other best team in the NFL heading into a bye. Don't see any reason to be sad today.

That drag route to Percy is so money, especially when unlimited Wilson runs are on the table.

BTW, pretty obvious why Wilson's runs open up in must-score situations. No reason to expose him like that unless you have to have it -- been that way his entire time here. Keeps teams off-balance late in games, too, because they're not used to defending it the whole game. I think they utilize perfectly as is.

Lynch -- irreplaceable. Pay that man in his money (in my Teddy KGB voice).

Lockette's turning into a legit NFLer before our very eyes. One of the better late-bloomer stories out there.

Again, this was a great one. You can nitpick stuff to death, but Denver is the AFC's gold standard, and they came with something to prove today. Sometimes the other team does good stuff, too. Seattle withstood their best effort and will be atop Tuesday's "Power Rankings" as the NFL's best.

Excellent posts Kearly. This one is great from D7. People use to complain about our lack of break away speed at receiver. We now have two of the fastest in the league. I don't remember seeing a lot of dropped balls by Lockette either. On of our old bugaboos. Also, there's been comments about our lack of height. Lockette is 6'3".

I also like the way we have Wilson run a lot late in games. I would also point out that the defensive players are just too tired to run him down like they might be able to earlier. It's like he uses rope a dope and has them chase him around a fair amount all game but he doesn't seem to be tired at the end and they do.

At this point, we have survived Rogers, Rivers and Manning and will face probably Kirk Cousins next game. (Who didn't make the plays at the end of the Eagles game to win) We seem to be healthier than a lot of teams. I think we'll see a more effective deep ball return. Russell has been dogged by the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews and Dwight Freeney. He won't always have to elude so many speed pass rushers. I'm delighted right now.

 

[papagallo]

Charger fan checking in. Great win against a tough opponent (Denver is much improved over last year, especially on D). For all those worried about how the 'Hawks are doing so far. Consider they baffled Aaron Rogers, lost to Phillip Rivers in 110+ degree heat (BTW, the Chargers are no joke this year), and beat arguably the greatest (top 5 for sure) QB's of ALL TIME (again, no less). It wouldn't surprise me if you guys ran the table the rest of the year. Now please stomp a mudhole in the Chiefs at week 11.

That's a done deal. Love to see you in a rematch this February so beat San Francisco yes?

Would love to stomp Frisco for you. Your whole division is pretty much loaded with some serious bullies. The Cards are getting no real love, but they are a tough as heck team. Frisco just seems to not be able to score in the 2nd half, but that team will be in the mix once they figure that out. Heck, the Rams are a tough team, but I can't figure out for the life of me why they didn't press harder for a QB after Bradford went down. Sanchez or Mallett would have made that team much better immediately. Hope to see you guys again in Feb as well.

 

[UK_Seahawk]

The emotion of this game went from nervous doubt, to supreme confidence, to lingering doubt, to outright fear, to elation of near certain victory (Chancellor pick), to horror, to victorious triumph.

This x 1000

 

[Tical21]

I don't get the 96%. Manning and the Broncos only have a 4% chance of scoring and getting a two? Seems just a little low. I know there is only a minute and no timeouts, but just seems a little low.

I would have loved to have seen the drag play again right there. I think the chances there of Lynch getting the first down are much worse than 1/10, when the whole stadium thinks we're going to run. I would have liked a little run/pass option. Complete the pass or keep it. I think we can trust Russell enough on that type of play to run that. Like I said before, Pete more predictably passes in that situation than anybody else I've ever seen. It just isn't his style to ever take his foot off the gas. I think the number 8 had a lot to do with the decision. I would be willing to bet good money that when similar situations come up again this season, we're going to see a pass.

 

[Skansi82]

Observations from someone who hasn't watched the playback on TV and drank quite a bit of Fireball at the Clink before/during the game:

-Could be wrong, but it seems like we stayed in our base defense in a lot of passing situations, even when we had time to sub out. Looking forward to having Lane and Simon back.

-Echoing what several have said Marshawn rarely follows Colemam's block, even when there's a hole to run through.

-The "allowing nickle and dime short passes" is clearly a strategy that's here to stay. Similar to last year's strategy to have Ryan punt it 43 yards with 6 seconds of hang time it seems like they've crunched the numbers and are going to stick with it no matter how frustrating it is to watch.

-Bruce who? I didn't miss not seeing him on the field and would much rather watch OB/Marsh play hard and keep their mouths shut, just my two cents.

-I trust Walters returning punts. Do I ever think he'll get more than 8 yards on a return? Probably not, but he makes good decisions and I didn't see a lot of running room for whoever would have been back there.

-Cam was a beast and played his best game of the year.

-Clearly teams are scheming to avoid Sherm and Earl. It's only a matter of time until one/both of them make a game changing play.

Excited for the rest of the season......this team will improve a lot by the end of the year!!!!

 

[Threedee]

One trend I'm seeing that is an upgrade from last year is that we now have a killer run defense.

 

[HansGruber]

3rd and 7 -- YES. But what about 1st and 10 ... or 2nd and 10? The Seahawks offense had a 1st and 10 at the Denver 13 yard line. Denver is expecting exactly what happened -- for Carroll and the Hawks to run Lynch and tick that clock down. On the one hand, I kind of agree -- do what you do best -- play defense in the cauldron that is the CLINK. On the other though, it's highly predictable and if there is one thing you don't want to be as an offense ... it's predictable. My point is that they didn't even take a shot -- not even a look to fire it in the end zone. You get Wilson sell play action hard ... and you're liable to get an opportunity for a TD instead of a FG. They didn't even try. If it's not there -- fine, throw it away, run time off the clock by scrambling, etc. They didn't even try though -- not even once. In my book, that's an issue because given the situation it left the door open for Manning to do what he did at the end of regulation. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that one though.

Seattle had a 96% chance to win using the three run and kick strategy.

I was not in favor of throwing in this situation as I just didn't want any more time on the clock than necessary. However, and this may come off as kind of 20/20 hindsight, but what about some sort of run by Russ on 2nd or 3rd down? Think fake dive to Marshawn and naked boot with a seal by the RT & TE. If it doesn't work, OK we still are eating up clock and if it does since they're keying on Lynch, Russ walks into the end zone. In other words, something just a bit more creative than three straight handoffs to the Beast.

Agree with this as well. While I understand what they were thinking (eliminate turnovers, run out the clock), being a little aggressive might have sealed the game early. Everyone expected the run, you've got momentum, why not try something unexpected?

 

[MileHighFish]

Props to the Seahawks on the win yesterday from a Broncos fan. Your team deserved to win the game. Always been a big RW fan and yesterday he took yet another step up the ladder. Showed amazing poise for such a young QB. Never ceases to amaze me honestly. Right when you think you have him dead to right, he escapes and makes great split second decisions. Lynch is unquestionably a beast and impossible to take down one on one.

Although the Broncos showed they have made some much needed improvements, Seattle is still a step above. Best of luck the rest of the season and hopefully there will be one more matchup between these two teams this season! Third times the charm, right??? :mrgreen:

 

[Laloosh]

Props to the Seahawks on the win yesterday from a Broncos fan. Your team deserved to win the game. Always been a big RW fan and yesterday he took yet another step up the ladder. Showed amazing poise for such a young QB. Never ceases to amaze me honestly. Right when you think you have him dead to right, he escapes and makes great split second decisions. Lynch is unquestionably a beast and impossible to take down one on one.

Although the Broncos showed they have made some much needed improvements, Seattle is still a step above. Best of luck the rest of the season and hopefully there will be one more matchup between these two teams this season! Third times the charm, right??? :mrgreen:

Good post. That Denver defense is solid. Going to be a good year for both teams. Good luck.

 

[Sarlacc83]

While the refs did blow some calls in this game, they seemed to blow calls both ways and they generally let both teams get away with a lot of stuff. In particular I saw a ton of holds by Denver's OL go uncalled, and a ton of iffy pass protections by Seattle go unpenalized. All things considered, Seattle usually wins when the officials avoid taking center stage.

I agree with most of what you said, and a double kudos for Manning as he took advantage of the opportunities given him.

Yet, the sheer incompetence of the refereeing really hurt Seattle at the end of the game. It's tempting to think there's a conspiracy in which the NFL needed this game not to go Seattle's way - otherwise there'd be no hype for an actual Super Bowl rematch - but I have to go with the more likely explanation of poor prepping. When Denver, who is known for running pick routes, gets away with 3 or 4 of them in a row, one can't help but shake a head at the lack of flags. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times and make me wonder if you're even paying attention. Physical play is fine and good - the league saying pick plays are an emphasis then not calling them is frustrating.

Then things really came to a head when Aqib Talib dropped an elbow on, I think, Zach Miller. There's no excuse for that, and it should have been an automatic ejection. No ifs ands or buts. Yet, the refs flagged it and moved on. It's things like that which are worrisome - the league seems to have no interest in protecting Seattle or the defense. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[gabel]

Maxwell gets the most of his god given abilities but he made what I thought were 2 huge mental error on Denver's final drive that almost cost us the game. Cannot help but wonder if the more talented Simon will get a chance as the season progresses

Jon Ryan had a game for the ages.

Rickardo Lockette will make a lot of money next year. He is ridiculous on special teams. Man the WR's on this team are tough.

Sweezy could be All Pro this year. Never understood all the criticism on the board.

Marcus Burley was a real find really a steal for just a 6th round pick. I think he keeps his job when Lane returns.

Cam Chanceller is a beast. That was his best game of the year by far.

For the most part the offense is like a college Division 2 teams offense. Lots of running plays with a few fake fly sweeps and few dump passes to the right sides. It seems way to predictable. I thought Russel Wilson was amazing in overtime but struggled for most of the game.

Jordan Hill to this point is a mediocre pass rusher and horrible against the run. He seems to lack the required strength to play DT. I wonder why Scruggs hasn't been given a chance. The pass rush was better last year.

Peyton Manning is still a great QB.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Wow, what a game! This one was the type of game we haven't had in a long time--a nailbiter with so many back-and-forth emotions.

Wilson was again incredible. Denver's defense is much improved, and they're one of the best teams in the entire league, and he still did well against them. Even though he finally threw a pick (as the result of a poor decision on his part for once), he still had an amazing game. Ended it with over a 70% completion rate, throwing to 10 different receivers (and catching a beautiful pass himself) for 258 yards, with a 99.9% passer rating. Oh, and he rushed nine times for another 40 yards. That is good football, folks!

This game got a lot closer than it ever should have been, but let's not forget, we were playing one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, with an offense that reached historic, record-breaking efficiency last year, and is on pace to do so again this year. It was, for all intents and purposes, a true clash of titans. Two great offenses, two great defenses. Two of the very top quarterbacks in the league trying to engineer drives down the field against heavy opposition. This is what the Super Bowl should have been, even though I was much happier with the outcome the way it turned out then.

As far as sealing the victory at their goal line with 2:12 to go in the game? One can second-guess that one all day long, but the fact of the matter is, they played the odds and won. The only reason Denver was able to march down the field on us was because it was Peyton Manning, and an offense that is the best we've ever seen. And it was still lucky. Very lucky.

The only thing I would Monday-morning quarterback about that set of play calls was that we could have used Wilson on a fake pass play to run it. We would have taken their focus off Lynch, and still kept the ball on the ground to chew up time. It would have been a different play, a mix-up in the scheme that we needed at that point. And doing that, we could have gotten a touchdown at least as easily as if we'd given the ball to Lynch all three times there. A lot of times he makes it in under those circumstances, but then, a lot of times Wilson does too.

Overall, it's a game that should have been played in prime time. NFL and television execs are kicking themselves right now for not putting that game in the late slot or on Monday Night Football instead of the hot mess they scheduled. Seriously, how they don't put this game in a prime time slot is beyond me. Only the seventh time we've seen a Super Bowl rematch in the history of the league, two top-tier teams, two great defenses, two great quarterbacks... come on! Oh well. Maybe they learned their lesson.

And now we can breath normally for the next two weeks. Whew! What a game to go into the bye on!

 

[seedhawk]

On RW's interception I have a couple of questions.

First, since Talib is new to the Bronks, did we not watch any film of him and how he plays, always peeking back to read the QB's eyes?

Second, Talib uncercut Harvins route and tipped the pass. So just why did we have Harvin in that spot? Was our other reciever just too slow up the field? Did he have trouble getting off a jam? Did Harvin just run his route a bit too deep? Seems to be counter productive to have 2 recievers so close to each other while in space.

 

[Year of The Hawk]

I'm not thrilled with the play call from inside the 1 that led to a safety. Why would we do that? Everyone knew we were going to run and it almost cost us the game. Why not run a pass play with max protection? Let Russ elude rushers and throw it away if he has to.

I really did not get that call. It was horrible.

I agree with Hans Gruber on this one. Terrible play call. The formation was like it was 4th and one on the one going the other way. They had no receivers outside. The Donks just loaded the box so number 24 had nothing or nowhere to go. The play was so telegraphed. If we were going to run it spread things out and let 24 do his thing. Very bad playcall.

 

[2_0_6]

After watching a ton of college football on Saturday, I have a question...


*Thinking outside the box here fellas*
Wouldn't it have been legal on the 3rd down from our goal line for Russell to go out of the shotgun set and pooch punt the ball? There would have been nobody back there and it would have taken the jackasses completely by surprise. Hind sight is always 20/20, yes I know.

 

[Brahn]

No idea if this was mentioned already in the thread. But on that final drive of the Broncos there was a play where the WR seemed to only get 1 foot in bounds on the opponents sideline. The replay they showed made it look like he was not 2 feet in bounds (Not the 2pt conversion). Many people wanted Carroll to challenge. Anyone with a better view, maybe from home see the replay?

 

[kearly]

I'm not thrilled with the play call from inside the 1 that led to a safety. Why would we do that? Everyone knew we were going to run and it almost cost us the game. Why not run a pass play with max protection? Let Russ elude rushers and throw it away if he has to.

I really did not get that call. It was horrible.

Calling a run there is how that situation is normally handled. You call a pass and there's so many ways it could lead to a safety, including via holding penalty.

Of course, Denver had been racking up TFL's in the game and I'm sure Pete knew the risk. Maybe the smartest move for avoiding a safety was a QB sneak?

Agree with this as well. While I understand what they were thinking (eliminate turnovers, run out the clock), being a little aggressive might have sealed the game early. Everyone expected the run, you've got momentum, why not try something unexpected?

For the sake of argument, lets assume that it's three times harder to score from 80 yards out with 1 minute and no timeouts than it is with 2 minutes and no timeouts.

In such an event, Seattle's 96% win probability would drop to 88%. Or to put it from Denver's perspective, their chances of winning would triple. To me, there is a lot to lose if you throw an incompletion. For that to balance out with staying put, the success rate of that pass (meaning, avoiding the incompletion or interception) would probably need to be pretty high of a conversion rate to even be worth considering.

Either scenario is thinkable, but when you are sitting on 96% win probability and your team has sucked on their last several 3rd down attempts at that point, there isn't much incentive to gamble.

I like the mentality, but I'm not sure if there was a play Bevell could call that would be safe enough to make it worthwhile.

 

[kearly]

I don't get the 96%. Manning and the Broncos only have a 4% chance of scoring and getting a two? Seems just a little low. I know there is only a minute and no timeouts, but just seems a little low.

It's a 4% chance to win, not a 4% chance to tie.

So basically factor out OT, and it becomes an 8% chance. And then you factor the 2 point conversion, and you are looking at a 16% chance to go 80 yards for a TD in 59 seconds with no timeouts on the road.

One in six. Sounds about right to me.

The necessity of the 2 point conversion and the necessity of winning in overtime is what makes it such a safe play for Seattle. For Denver to win, it would be like rolling a six on a die, then winning back to back coinflips.

I think the chances there of Lynch getting the first down are much worse than 1/10, when the whole stadium thinks we're going to run.

Seattle is converting 67% of their power run situations this year. Granted, 3rd and 7 is harder than 3rd and 3, but Seattle currently ranks #1 in the NFL in run blocking by FO. I think a 10% conversion percent here is very conservative, if anything. Many times in the past, Seattle has shown an ability to break big runs even when the defense is keying it, like for example the final Lynch TD in the Saints playoff game.

I would have liked a little run/pass option. Complete the pass or keep it. I think we can trust Russell enough on that type of play to run that. Like I said before, Pete more predictably passes in that situation than anybody else I've ever seen. It just isn't his style to ever take his foot off the gas. I think the number 8 had a lot to do with the decision. I would be willing to bet good money that when similar situations come up again this season, we're going to see a pass.

I can't think of a single time where Pete didn't run the clock with the opponent out of timeouts and less than two minutes left. I could be wrong, but I am pretty sure that has never happened.

Now, if the opponent had a timeout left? Different story. He's passing the ball on 3rd and 7 if the other team has a timeout.

Pete has been a conservative coach for the most part. The only time he reverted to big balls Pete mode last year (on offense) was the 4th and 7 in the NFCCG, and even then that only happened because Hausch money forced the issue.

 

[Bobblehead]

Just want to say, you all have some great points and analysis, very good reading.

I just want to say about the safety, that I actually thought it was a good play. Though the play I thought was just to take a knee at that point. My reasoning is that I believe we still would be up by 2 scores, we could punt the ball keeping the Chargers deep in their territory, which we did, then re-group and score again.

Had we failed to covert the fist down, we would have been punting deep in our end zone and probably had the Broncs starting in our side of the field and momentum would clearly still be with the Broncos.

As it happened , we did get a safety, we punted deep, pinning the broncs deep, having them punt... who knew we would throw an int.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I just want to say about the safety, that I actually thought it was a good play.

I wouldn't call it a good play, but ironically, I didn't think it was a bad one, though many in the chat room howled at it at the time.