Random Thoughts on the Rams game

[EntiatHawk]

I think we all need to step away from the ledge a bit. We had games just like this last year. The biggest difference is not getting those turnovers that tilt the game. I feel we had one in this game and yet we did not get it because of a weird interpretation from the refs. Oh well, the ball bounces funny sometimes.

Our D does needs to get pressure and if you watch the last few games we are like one step too late all too often. That has to change. We have to get off the field in 3 and long. This is way too frustrating.

Also I think we can read between the lines, the coaches, ET knew something was up on the fake at the end and my guess is someone blew their assignment. That is not exactly getting out coached. If you don't make plays you are getting out coached?

Like most mention our biggest concerns are our lines, both O-line and D-line. I think our O-line is what it is, shitty, but RW and the Beast can cover some of that up. The D-line needs to step up because we need them to carry the load a bit. Also having Wags and Kam not in there playing what we are used to is a huge issue for us.

This team needs to buckle down and play better fundamentals and get this ship cruising the other direction. Really other than Denver who doesn't have some major warts?

 

[captSE]

I had a real deja vu feeling today about slow starts in 10:00am games. This had a real pre-Pete vibe to it, with the slow start and all.

Me too. Kearly referenced the Atlanta game a couple years back and that game was a morning game for the Hawks [body clock wise] too.
I wish somebody with influence would do something about making these games fair. West coast teams going to the east coast have a inherent disadvantage because of the body clock.

 

[hawkfan68]

Oh, and while we are at it, what genius is responsible for putting Helfet on Quinn?

Tis was I....

Signed,
Tom Cable

 

[hawkfan68]

The fake punt explanation from Pete? We didn't think they would run it in that situation.

In other words, the team wasn't prepared for the gimmicks the Rams do. Rams ST counted for two scores - 1 on their own and another with giving the offense short field. Seahawk ST was very unprepared this game. They played well against Dallas but did 180 in this game.

 

[hawkfan68]

My thoughts:

- The defense strongly resembles the 2012 version.......very little pass rush, giving up 3rd and longs and/or game losing drives when they're needed most.
- Run defense is not great at times. Wagner is missed badly for that reason.
- Turnovers are non-existent and it's killing this team.
- Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are not generating anywhere near enough pass rush on the edges and no one is generating a damned thing up the middle. Perhaps we do miss McDonald far more than at least I thought. I'm beginning to wonder if Bennett is suffering from "I got my money" syndrome.
- Richard Sherman is NOT suffering from "I got my money" syndrome. There was some disagreement about his play last week, but there should be none this week. Dude flat out balled today. I believe he had but one completion against him and made several important open field tackles. I also noticed he was playing much tighter this week. I think he's decided to go back to last year's press technique and let the penalties fall where they may. Good move man.

For those in the Gameday Forum and elsewhere that have been saying Russell Wilson is "finished" or "overrated" or whatever general comments along those lines that I've seen here, you just saw a guy put an entire offense on his back and carry it despite having his ass physically kicked for most of the game. He didn't play well last week. He did play well and then some this week.
- Along those lines, our o-line is shit in both pass pro and more disturbingly, run blocking. When will Cable be held accountable? Guard play today was brutal. Worst game Sweezy's had in a while and worst game Carp has had this season.
- This team desperately needs to go d-line and o-line in the next draft.
- P-Rich looked comfortable and I think we'll see more production from him as the season goes along.
- Michael sees daylight well and finds his way through small creases nicely. This guy needs to play more even if it's just to gauge whether or not he is the next in line at RB or not.
- Nice to see Baldwin back as part of the offense. Dude balled today, big time. A lot more intermediate throws as a result of Harvin being gone. Doug benefits a great deal from that.
- Russell Okung finally had a decent (not great) game, no false starts that I remember and no holding penalties though Quinn did beat him a couple of times. Here's hoping his shoulder is healing.
- Will MRob be brought back to replace Coleman now that we know Derrick broke his foot?

- Pete and his staff were badly outcoached in this game. That's not surprising in St. Louis. Fisher has owned Pete there for 2 of the last 3 years. Two years ago, the fake FG cost the Hawks the game and this year TWO screw ups in the punt game cost the team a "W".

- I agree with kearly that it's unlikely the team makes the playoffs. 8-2 in the last 10 games seems a stretch and even 7-3 with a 10-6 if that would get us in seems like it won't happen either.

Good points Hawksfansinceday1. To your point about Avril and Bennett not generating any pressure around the edges plus not getting in inside pass rush....moving Bennett back to DT may cure this. Move McDaniel (going into the season, I thought they would be using McDaniel in the Red Bryant role) outside or put Schofield there. Bennett plays better inside in my opinion. You can rotate Kevin Williams there too. That would correct 2 issues, interior pass rush and having a pass rush. You could also move Irvin to DE . Irvin has done an adequate job sealing the edge this year.

 

[morgulon1]

If this is the case, it was poor ineffective coaching haha.

It may have been more about lack of focus than anything else.

That very well could be the case but it's a chicken or the egg situation. Was it poor coaching or just poor play?
We got faked out of our shoes. TWICE!

 

[lvnginhwktwn]

If this is the case, it was poor ineffective coaching haha.

It may have been more about lack of focus than anything else.

That very well could be the case but it's a chicken or the egg situation. Was it poor coaching or just poor play?
We got faked out of our shoes. TWICE!

Your QB took couple of big hits, one in particular he appeared pretty shaken.

 

[capncrunch]

David seven how much of that was simply not being asked to force the ball to Percy? It is not a coincidence that Doug had a great game.

Percy wasn't getting a ton of touches before this, but I think having to incorporate Percy, even minimally, disrupted Russell's progress and may have thrown off his timing with more conventional receivers. He looks a lot better without Percy, to be honest. That's why I'm encouraged.

So am I. Excellent analysis. Thanks also Kearly. I agree with your take very much. Very much looking forward to next week.

 

[Scottemojo]

If this is the case, it was poor ineffective coaching haha.

It may have been more about lack of focus than anything else.

That very well could be the case but it's a chicken or the egg situation. Was it poor coaching or just poor play?
We got faked out of our shoes. TWICE!

Your QB took couple of big hits, one in particular he appeared pretty shaken.

Played pretty damn good after that.

 

[Rex]

Good to hear you weigh in Tical. I agree with almost all of it, and should have made mention of a lot of the stuff you covered (Christine Michael, Helfet, Turbin, etc.).

Regarding the fake punt, I will admit that it surprised me, and Pete admitted that it surprised him. But when we look at the details, it was actually not a high risk play at all.

Seattle was unstoppable in the 2nd half. What would their win probability be if you gave them the ball with 2:50 left and only needing 3 points to win? While playing indoors with a 90% accuracy kicker? What would Seattle's chances to win be? Probably somewhere around 70%, I would guess. Meaning that the Rams win probably drops to somewhere around 30% if they punt.

If you fake the punt and miss, you concede the field goal but also make it difficult for Seattle to run the clock. The Rams had two timeouts, and even if the punt fails, they would very likely get the ball back with a chance to win. Even if they blow the fake, they are probably still sitting around 20% WP. Unless they give up a TD, then it might be 10% WP.

So if you look at the difference between punting and failing on the fake, it's only about 10 to 20 percent swing in win probability most likely. This compared to the enormous swing in WP by converting, a 41% WP boost at the time. I'm sure we'll see a post on this over at advanced NFL stats this next week.

But the most important detail is this. Seattle did not have their defense on the field, they had their kick coverage group out there. And Pete was totally out of timeouts. Even if Carroll had figured out what was coming 10 seconds before the snap, he would have been powerless to stop it. The only thing that could have caused this play to fail was a drop by the receiver, more or less.

The illusion of risk was just that, an illusion. And that illusion of risk is precisely the reason it worked. Pete didn't think Fisher would do it. Great coaching by Fisher there.

As far as Pete, he would probably do well to assume that Fisher is always going to have some trick up his sleeve on every special teams play. After all he's done to us, there is no excuse anymore for getting hoodwinked.

Excellent post. :th2thumbs:

 

[Sealake80]

If this is the final RT I have to post. ukeface: I feel sick. Thanks for all the random thoughts!

 

[Largent80]

A lot of these jackasses that wreck a good thing do it purposely. If you read their comments in other threads they do it all the time.

Sickening that it has come down to this. Grow up you .....I can't say it here.

 

[mikeak]

Good to hear you weigh in Tical. I agree with almost all of it, and should have made mention of a lot of the stuff you covered (Christine Michael, Helfet, Turbin, etc.).

Regarding the fake punt, I will admit that it surprised me, and Pete admitted that it surprised him. But when we look at the details, it was actually not a high risk play at all.

Seattle was unstoppable in the 2nd half. What would their win probability be if you gave them the ball with 2:50 left and only needing 3 points to win? While playing indoors with a 90% accuracy kicker? What would Seattle's chances to win be? Probably somewhere around 70%, I would guess. Meaning that the Rams win probably drops to somewhere around 30% if they punt.

If you fake the punt and miss, you concede the field goal but also make it difficult for Seattle to run the clock. The Rams had two timeouts, and even if the punt fails, they would very likely get the ball back with a chance to win. Even if they blow the fake, they are probably still sitting around 20% WP. Unless they give up a TD, then it might be 10% WP.

So if you look at the difference between punting and failing on the fake, it's only about 10 to 20 percent swing in win probability most likely. This compared to the enormous swing in WP by converting, a 41% WP boost at the time. I'm sure we'll see a post on this over at advanced NFL stats this next week.

But the most important detail is this. Seattle did not have their defense on the field, they had their kick coverage group out there. And Pete was totally out of timeouts. Even if Carroll had figured out what was coming 10 seconds before the snap, he would have been powerless to stop it. The only thing that could have caused this play to fail was a drop by the receiver, more or less.

The illusion of risk was just that, an illusion. And that illusion of risk is precisely the reason it worked. Pete didn't think Fisher would do it. Great coaching by Fisher there.

As far as Pete, he would probably do well to assume that Fisher is always going to have some trick up his sleeve on every special teams play. After all he's done to us, there is no excuse anymore for getting hoodwinked.

Excellent post. :th2thumbs:

Jeff Fisher is that you? He was on Colin Cowherd this morning and said - if we fail with the play then stop the seahawks we get the ball with about 2 mins left as we had two time-outs. Down 1 that is better than giving the ball back to RW who had the hot hand. Upside was better than the downside (I paraphrased)