Random Thoughts on the Rams game
- Thread starter kearly
- Start date
OP
OP
kearly
New member
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2007
- Messages
- 15,975
- Reaction score
- 0
Good to hear you weigh in Tical. I agree with almost all of it, and should have made mention of a lot of the stuff you covered (Christine Michael, Helfet, Turbin, etc.).
Regarding the fake punt, I will admit that it surprised me, and Pete admitted that it surprised him. But when we look at the details, it was actually not a high risk play at all.
Seattle was unstoppable in the 2nd half. What would their win probability be if you gave them the ball with 2:50 left and only needing 3 points to win? While playing indoors with a 90% accuracy kicker? What would Seattle's chances to win be? Probably somewhere around 70%, I would guess. Meaning that the Rams win probably drops to somewhere around 30% if they punt.
If you fake the punt and miss, you concede the field goal but also make it difficult for Seattle to run the clock. The Rams had two timeouts, and even if the punt fails, they would very likely get the ball back with a chance to win. Even if they blow the fake, they are probably still sitting around 20% WP. Unless they give up a TD, then it might be 10% WP.
So if you look at the difference between punting and failing on the fake, it's only about 10 to 20 percent swing in win probability most likely. This compared to the enormous swing in WP by converting, a 41% WP boost at the time. I'm sure we'll see a post on this over at advanced NFL stats this next week.
But the most important detail is this. Seattle did not have their defense on the field, they had their kick coverage group out there. And Pete was totally out of timeouts. Even if Carroll had figured out what was coming 10 seconds before the snap, he would have been powerless to stop it. The only thing that could have caused this play to fail was a drop by the receiver, more or less.
The illusion of risk was just that, an illusion. And that illusion of risk is precisely the reason it worked. Pete didn't think Fisher would do it. Great coaching by Fisher there.
As far as Pete, he would probably do well to assume that Fisher is always going to have some trick up his sleeve on every special teams play. After all he's done to us, there is no excuse anymore for getting hoodwinked.
Regarding the fake punt, I will admit that it surprised me, and Pete admitted that it surprised him. But when we look at the details, it was actually not a high risk play at all.
Seattle was unstoppable in the 2nd half. What would their win probability be if you gave them the ball with 2:50 left and only needing 3 points to win? While playing indoors with a 90% accuracy kicker? What would Seattle's chances to win be? Probably somewhere around 70%, I would guess. Meaning that the Rams win probably drops to somewhere around 30% if they punt.
If you fake the punt and miss, you concede the field goal but also make it difficult for Seattle to run the clock. The Rams had two timeouts, and even if the punt fails, they would very likely get the ball back with a chance to win. Even if they blow the fake, they are probably still sitting around 20% WP. Unless they give up a TD, then it might be 10% WP.
So if you look at the difference between punting and failing on the fake, it's only about 10 to 20 percent swing in win probability most likely. This compared to the enormous swing in WP by converting, a 41% WP boost at the time. I'm sure we'll see a post on this over at advanced NFL stats this next week.
But the most important detail is this. Seattle did not have their defense on the field, they had their kick coverage group out there. And Pete was totally out of timeouts. Even if Carroll had figured out what was coming 10 seconds before the snap, he would have been powerless to stop it. The only thing that could have caused this play to fail was a drop by the receiver, more or less.
The illusion of risk was just that, an illusion. And that illusion of risk is precisely the reason it worked. Pete didn't think Fisher would do it. Great coaching by Fisher there.
As far as Pete, he would probably do well to assume that Fisher is always going to have some trick up his sleeve on every special teams play. After all he's done to us, there is no excuse anymore for getting hoodwinked.
SnoCoHawk
New member
Random thought: Cooper Helfet has better hands than Luke Willson. Not sure about his blocking, although he was beating himself up about that in his locker room interview so maybe he's not good. Still, it was nice to see a tight end catching more than he dropped.
gargantual
New member
Tical21":22wpj9z6 said:
This really was awesome to watch, wasn't it? Anyone have a theory about what was behind this amazing turnaround? It seems like Russell has been brain farting for at least the last few games. I was getting to the point where I was starting to be concerned that Russell arc of development had hit a ceiling, but was heartened by his performance in the second half.
gargantual":hcz0mxe7 said:
Its called being down, really. It was no different than the other time we saw Wilson get greenlit to chuck the rock; Atlanta 2012. Unless he's down he'll error on the side of what Pete tells him; scramble, play it safe, and look for explosives NOT across the midde.
gargantual
New member
Has Pete always been this skittish about his QBs? You'd think by now he should trust Russell enough to take the "governor" off of him.
TwilightError
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2012
- Messages
- 1,344
- Reaction score
- 225
I can't believe how many did not see the fake FG coming. It was obvious to me. If they gave the ball to Seattle, they lose. Simple as that to figure.
I have expected Simon to be trouble since he was drafted and had that incident at his home. Well he proved me right. I hope he will prove me wrong in time but I am not counting on it.
The ending was just a robbery but it is to be expected in this league.
It's hard to even give credit for the offense for second half. To me it mostly seemed like the Rams D soiling their pants as they often do towards the end of the game.
What has happened to our great tackling? There are extra yards available all the time an no one else than Sherman seems to be able to produce a solo tackle...
Edit. Ok there was one positive. Getting Norwood, Richardson and Michael on the field.
I have expected Simon to be trouble since he was drafted and had that incident at his home. Well he proved me right. I hope he will prove me wrong in time but I am not counting on it.
The ending was just a robbery but it is to be expected in this league.
It's hard to even give credit for the offense for second half. To me it mostly seemed like the Rams D soiling their pants as they often do towards the end of the game.
What has happened to our great tackling? There are extra yards available all the time an no one else than Sherman seems to be able to produce a solo tackle...
Edit. Ok there was one positive. Getting Norwood, Richardson and Michael on the field.
WilsonMVP
New member
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2013
- Messages
- 2,771
- Reaction score
- 0
Hawk Strap":31gurv7h said:
Ya so true..Bradford sucks....losing him didnt hurt at all
Seafan
New member
I expected the Seahawks to get beat badly in this game and yet they didn't. The Hawks have been in every game and one play has really decided each. Still, you are what your record says you are.
The Hawks really need some good injury luck. We are fielding the worst OL in the league. We did last year too but were able to get by. The Hawks need to draft several quality OL.
If Maxy hadn't got hurt we'd be 5-1. That's a shame and it shows you how important he is to the defense. Time to lock him up.
Dan Quinn is going to need to find some interior pass rush, especially with Max out.
The coaching staff has pissed the season away but it doesn't mean there won't be some entertaining football left.
The Hawks really need some good injury luck. We are fielding the worst OL in the league. We did last year too but were able to get by. The Hawks need to draft several quality OL.
If Maxy hadn't got hurt we'd be 5-1. That's a shame and it shows you how important he is to the defense. Time to lock him up.
Dan Quinn is going to need to find some interior pass rush, especially with Max out.
The coaching staff has pissed the season away but it doesn't mean there won't be some entertaining football left.
hawk45
Active member
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2009
- Messages
- 10,009
- Reaction score
- 16
Hope it's as simple as Wilson trusting himself or Pete trusting him to pull the trigger across the middle. Fear that teams will adjust and take away the quick hitters and we will have to pass protect, and that's when the passing resurgence dies.
Gives us something to look forward to next week though, seeing if a blip can become a trend.
Gives us something to look forward to next week though, seeing if a blip can become a trend.
TwilightError
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2012
- Messages
- 1,344
- Reaction score
- 225
Our D made Davis look like Peyton Manning due to total lack of pass rush and very soft coverage. It takes major rationalization to find positives from that. Sorry Kearly, I love your random thoughts but just can't agree with that notion.
davidonmi
New member
- Joined
- Jan 13, 2013
- Messages
- 2,507
- Reaction score
- 0
I downplayed the notion that we'll get every team's best shot.
It's pretty clear that's the case, Dallas, SD, STL all played as well as they possibly could to beat us
It's pretty clear that's the case, Dallas, SD, STL all played as well as they possibly could to beat us
xgeoff
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2014
- Messages
- 1,948
- Reaction score
- 185
pehawk":9k9t4hkb said:
Yep, and the Coaches should have been aware of this. And aware that Fisher has always been a trickster (music city miracle anyone?) and ESPECIALLY against the Seahawks!
We got outcoached today...
MysterMatt
Active member
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2009
- Messages
- 7,242
- Reaction score
- 0
I respect a lot of you, but balderdash. This loss sucks. Getting punked by a 1-4 team on a fake punt sucks. Making a UDFA QB with little experience look like a damned All Pro sucks. Seeing the same stupid penalties game after game sucks. Watching our allegedly solid D fail to set the tone sucks. Watching our pathetic OL do anything sucks. I could go on and on, but why bother?
I guess I start with the coaches failing to have our team ready to play AGAIN being my biggest concern, but this team has succumbed to whatever damned curse SB teams have been zapped with.
In short, we suck. There's talent, and therefore playoff hope if we get healthy, but I'm dubious at this point. I fear memories of last year's glory will have to sustain me.
Sigh.
I guess I start with the coaches failing to have our team ready to play AGAIN being my biggest concern, but this team has succumbed to whatever damned curse SB teams have been zapped with.
In short, we suck. There's talent, and therefore playoff hope if we get healthy, but I'm dubious at this point. I fear memories of last year's glory will have to sustain me.
Sigh.
Threedee
Well-known member
I hope we run up the score on the Rams in Week 17, just for the hell of it.
hawksfansinceday1
Active member
Agree with you man. My thoughts in this thread had positives that I saw, but zero sugar coating.MysterMatt":1la7ue1w said:
Reaneypark
Active member
- Joined
- Sep 18, 2011
- Messages
- 2,127
- Reaction score
- 23
This is only a positive if they can go on a nice win streak with their new-found identity. The margin for error for a sure playoff berth for the Hawks is only two more Ls. They better pull their heads out and start playing Hawks football or it's gonna be a long off-season.
gmor
Active member
DavidSeven said:
BullHawk33
Member
Right now, this is not a defense that deserves a name. They have been 2 steps behind most of the year and have lacked the boom they used to have. Maybe it is because of injuries but I do not think so. The pass rush just isnt getting to the QB. They have had time in the pocket all season. Good play from our DBs would help but they cannot cover for that long all the time.
A lot of the opposing offenses have been changing their alignment to attack our weak side linebacker. Since we dont swap linebackers they get the matchup they want in run or pass. This placed Malcolm in a position to have to set the edge today in run defense which is not what he is great at. I am going to spend some time reviewing tonight but run towards Smith and pass in the zone behind Irvin seemed to occur often today.
A lot of the opposing offenses have been changing their alignment to attack our weak side linebacker. Since we dont swap linebackers they get the matchup they want in run or pass. This placed Malcolm in a position to have to set the edge today in run defense which is not what he is great at. I am going to spend some time reviewing tonight but run towards Smith and pass in the zone behind Irvin seemed to occur often today.
