Russell Wilson is Elite | I'm Putting the Nail in the Coffin

[Fade]

I think you're selling me a little short, but I digress.

At the end of the day, whether or not he is "elite" or whatever, doesn't really matter. Can you win with him? Absolutely. Can you win while paying him top-shelf money? That question is a bit more murky. The talent level and record of the team have clearly diminished since he got paid. I blame age of the core and poor drafting far more than the play of Russell, but it is worth thinking about. Can you win while paying him 25-30 per? That would be the question. However, there is a 0% chance that they don't pay him, so any thought put into the matter is a fool's errand.

Just do me a favor and watch the coach's tape for a game or two, look at whether the opponent is in zone or man presnap, and watch what happens. Or, if you can, determine that presnap while you're watching the game live and see what happens. It isn't a coincidence that the team he put up a perfect rating against is the team on our schedule that plays more man coverage than any other team. Just humor me and take a look, and you'll see things you can't unsee.

Please do the same for all "elite" QBs, but take into account the plays that Wilson makes that none of these guys can make other than Rodgers would've made while watching. So you can actually get a realistic baseline. Instead of your baseline being perfection.

PS

Stop listening to Hugh Millen. If you're getting this from him STAHP, or at least take what he is saying with a grain of salt.

If you only listened to Hugh Millen speak about Hasselbeck, & Wilson, but never got to see either of them play. You would think Hasselbeck was the future HoFer, and Wilson was the 2nd tier guy.

I don't mind analysts who want to be hard graders, but they have to stay consistent to remain credible. He treated Hasselbeck with kid gloves, it was always someone else's fault when it came to Hasselbeck. With Wilson it is always his fault. Anything grey area he piles on Wilson. He has an agenda.

 

[themunn]

I think you're selling me a little short, but I digress.

At the end of the day, whether or not he is "elite" or whatever, doesn't really matter. Can you win with him? Absolutely. Can you win while paying him top-shelf money? That question is a bit more murky. The talent level and record of the team have clearly diminished since he got paid. I blame age of the core and poor drafting far more than the play of Russell, but it is worth thinking about. Can you win while paying him 25-30 per? That would be the question. However, there is a 0% chance that they don't pay him, so any thought put into the matter is a fool's errand.

That's a question you can pose about any QB in the league though - Brady, Eli and Big Ben are the only multiple superbowl winners in the league at the moment and none of them are paid that top level.

Rodgers and Brees have just 1 win each despite illustrious careers and big contracts. So the question shouldn't really be "is Wilson elite enough to command 25-30" - he is, and he will. The question is "can you get by with a lesser level of QB play and still win the superbowl". And the answer is also "yes", but you need generational talent elsewhere in the team to do so anyway.

 

[Smellyman]

Add in all of RWs 800 and 600 yard rushing seasons and he is in the top 10 quite a bit I imagine. (I am not doing that legwork)

Goff and Mahomes were actually crap. They missed a ton of wide open guys, held the ball too long, 5 turnovers for Mahomes, Goff throws a horrible pass that Scandrick drops (should have been game over there because Reid would have been smart enough to run out the clock, McVay? gross)

Fun game to watch, but actually so much bad football

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks a 100 plus point game isn't a great game. I need some defense.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Tical made the point that is getting overlooked in the entire 'elite' debate.

It doesn't matter if Wilson is elite. It matters if he is the elite that can produce success when he has less to work with, consistently.

Now, to Wilson's credit - he has produced without a lot of important components that most QBs need to have in order to produce. His OL was pretty poor and for a few years, his RB production was iffy. It was also an issue that his OC seemed to be holding him back. However, his issues with the slow starts have continued so that might be a function of Wilson himself (even though his old OC was still worth removing for other reasons).

So there were lots of reasons to give him excuses. And for the most part, those excuses were valid.

But he was also gifted with a defense that could hold the opposing team down so that he could fail multiple times, get multiple knocks at the door, and eventually kick it in. Being consistent was not an issue, he didn't need to covert at a high % because drivers that were punts or FGs would eventually turn into a TD drive. Meanwhile, the opposing team was being kept within one score.

Now that defense is gone. And so is the luxury of knowing you can 3 and out multiple times while still coming back to win.

He has to score to keep us in games. I believe in the average NFL game the average winning team in the NFL scores 28pts. That leaves 30 pts as objective if you want to win football games. But with the big contract the issue will become - does this team become the Saints, Packers or Steelers? Because once that contract is signed, our team will be thinner and Wilson is going to have to produce in spite of the excuses. He won't have the help he got in years past.

The question is whether he is the kind of elite that can carry a team that is missing pieces or the kind that puts up good numbers but cannot overcome the holes his own large contract creates. It also bothers me that Carroll does not seem to want to put the offense on his shoulders. Is that because of Carroll's predilection to the run game or because he feels Wilson cannot be the guy to carry the full load consistently for 4 quarters? (Carroll seemed just fine with passing all over the place at USC - so it isn't some aversion to the pass.)

 

[Ozzy]

https://youtu.be/rOceD9GWa-o

 

[Ozzy]

Russell has had less to work with almost his whole career while consistently playing at the highest level. The Russell isn't elite crowd is the most baffling position I've encountered in sports in a long time. Cowherd in the video above is spot on.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks a 100 plus point game isn't a great game. I need some defense.

Welcome to the new NFL, that was exactly what the league wants.

It's exciting for anyone not a fan of the Chiefs or Rams, but I guarantee you we'd be sick with how terrible our defense played over and over every drive if that game was involving the Hawks.

But hell, for a non rooting interest fan of football? That was pretty damn exciting to watch.

 

[TwistedHusky]

But it is also why the QB numbers have to be taken in context.

It is easier now. By far.

You cannot compare the #s with guys like Jim Kelly that were not allowed to slide or even throw the ball away.

Much less compare them to Montana or Young. We are going to see QBs putting up 400 yard games regularly at some point, not because they are great but because they play in offenses that emphasize production vs defenses that are hamstrung by rules and schemes designed to de-emphasize them.

On one hand, this has to be the future because the hard-hitting, physical nature of football is not sustainable. Players know about the CTE risk and parents won't put their kids into the game at all unless the collisions are mitigated/minimized. So I get the league is doing this in order to save itself - but it derails most if not all the records because it isn't comparable.

 

[Seymour]

Is anyone watching this Monday Night Football game??? LOL


Both QBs have basically given up scores due to sack fumbles, poor throws. Both have made overthrows and missed some open guys(Goff and Mahomes). Other times they have guys running wide open with no defender around. Do some fans watch this with perspective? It's pretty clear the scheme of McVay and Andy Reid is what's truly elite here. Although I do like Mahomes.

Yep, check my comment on it in the LA vs KC thread in the NFL forum.

I think my message is finally starting to seep through. :2thumbs:


Adjust that lens and look at all of the QBs with the same standard, and mistakes start to appear everywhere.


These dudes that say Russell is not elite, are not watching these other guys that way guaranteed.

THE DOUBLE STANDARD IS THROUGH.

I put the nail in the coffin.

I hope you used ring shank nails, because the critics are already prying on them. :roll:

Sadly....the work will never be done because "he just can't see"....too short....

 

[SoulfishHawk]

And with all the ticky tack calls against Defenses these days, it makes it real tough to keep a good offense under 30 points. I guess I just prefer old school snot knockers with some defense. Not that it wasn't a fun game to watch.

 

[Ozzy]

But you can compare his numbers with todays QB's and he's still at an elite level playing in an offense that isn't conducive to huge numbers. Russell is elite and the only people claiming otherwise are fans. Ask players, NFL front office personnel, people who's job is to report on the NFL and interact internally. Clayton who for a long time was a little harsh on Russell now says its a given league wide. Russ is a top 5 QB in this league. His passer rating, TD/INT ratio, GW drives, 4th quarter passer rating, 4th quarter TD record last year and I could go on and on. He's elite.

 

[brimsalabim]

"Russell is asked to do less"..... not really. last season he was asked to be the offensive line and the running game besides playing QB. What other QB was asked to do that? Now he is back to being asked to complete passes and score points when the whole world knows what play is coming.

 

[semiahmoo]

Russ is good. No question.

Sometimes he's great. No doubt.

Both the above are even more impressive given his short stature and crappy O-Line/running game history the past few seasons.

O-Line is now better. Running game is now better. Russel playing well - sometimes great.

Do we pay him the big $$$$ and try and build around him or let him go and gamble on lower cost QB and build even more around that guy?

Decisions...decisions...

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

1 of 20. Russell is one of only 20QBs to start in multiple Super Bowls. When he goes to his next Superbowl it's be 1 of 13 that have played in 3 or more. I think he's just fine.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Do we pay him the big $$$$ and try and build around him or let him go and gamble on lower cost QB and build even more around that guy? .

That is the 30 million dollar question.

As of right now, I'd be OK with franchising Russell for a year and trying our best to find the next great young QB in the draft.

Bottom line for me, I wouldn't be comfortable trading or letting Russell walk without his replacement on the roster and ready to roll. That's EXACTLY how you become one of the 25 have nots trading away all their draft picks swinging and missing on QB's year after year and going 5-11.

In other words, you don't trade a top 5-10 QB without his replacement on the roster.

 

[scutterhawk]

Thx for the laugh. They won 9 games last year with a HISTORICALLY bad Running game, a HORRIFIC O-Line and a ridiculous amount of injuries to some of the best players in the league.
But yeah, he can't carry a team. Do you even watch football, or do just literally hate the guy? :roll:
Still between 4-7 in the league and is in the prime of his career. This team is in good hands w/Russ.

That's nice. Russ finally has a Elite O-Line, #1 run game in the league and a top 5 defense. We're 5-5. 2-10 in the last 12 games decided by a TD or less.

Do you put that on the qb?

Not ALL Quarterbacks, just one---> Russell Wilson.
Opinion Shifters (like Shape Shifters), not only rely on Cherry Picking, but also Nit Picking to twist shit around to fit any point of view.

 

[Ozzy]

Do we pay him the big $$$$ and try and build around him or let him go and gamble on lower cost QB and build even more around that guy? .

That is the 30 million dollar question.

As of right now, I'd be OK with franchising Russell for a year and trying our best to find the next great young QB in the draft.

Bottom line for me, I wouldn't be comfortable trading or letting Russell walk without his replacement on the roster and ready to roll. That's EXACTLY how you become one of the 25 have nots trading away all their draft picks swinging and missing on QB's year after year and going 5-11.

In other words, you don't trade a top 5-10 QB without his replacement on the roster.

The chances of finding a rookie QB who turns into a Wilson level talent is very rare. Ask Cleveland. Goff and Mahomes are playing well but they also have two of the brightest offensive minds in the league coaching them and play calling for them, we don't have that. Seattle is beyond dumb if they let him go and think they're going to land an elite guy in the draft.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Do we pay him the big $$$$ and try and build around him or let him go and gamble on lower cost QB and build even more around that guy? .

That is the 30 million dollar question.

As of right now, I'd be OK with franchising Russell for a year and trying our best to find the next great young QB in the draft.

Bottom line for me, I wouldn't be comfortable trading or letting Russell walk without his replacement on the roster and ready to roll. That's EXACTLY how you become one of the 25 have nots trading away all their draft picks swinging and missing on QB's year after year and going 5-11.

In other words, you don't trade a top 5-10 QB without his replacement on the roster.

The chances of finding a rookie QB who turns into a Wilson level talent is very rare. Ask Cleveland. Goff and Mahomes are playing well but they also have two of the brightest offensive minds in the league coaching them and play calling for them, we don't have that. Seattle is beyond dumb if they let him go and think they're going to land an elite guy in the draft.

That's why I said find the QB first, then if you're confident that the new QB can replicate most of what Russell can do, you now have opened up that four year window of having an extra 20-30M to spend on other players.

Russell isn't asked to do what Mahomes and Goff have to do, Russell is asked to distribute, hand the ball off and run around and make 3-4 explosive plays a game.........and he does it very well most of the time. That's not the same as these other top 10 QB's that have to carry their teams in order for them to win.

I love Russell, I'd love for him to retire a Seahawk, but we're lying to ourselves if we think it won't be EXTREMELY difficult to get back to a SB paying Russell north of 30M a year for the next 4-5 years.

 

[Fade]

Tical made the point that is getting overlooked in the entire 'elite' debate.

It doesn't matter if Wilson is elite. It matters if he is the elite that can produce success when he has less to work with, consistently.

Now, to Wilson's credit - he has produced without a lot of important components that most QBs need to have in order to produce. His OL was pretty poor and for a few years, his RB production was iffy. It was also an issue that his OC seemed to be holding him back. However, his issues with the slow starts have continued so that might be a function of Wilson himself (even though his old OC was still worth removing for other reasons).

So there were lots of reasons to give him excuses. And for the most part, those excuses were valid.

But he was also gifted with a defense that could hold the opposing team down so that he could fail multiple times, get multiple knocks at the door, and eventually kick it in. Being consistent was not an issue, he didn't need to covert at a high % because drivers that were punts or FGs would eventually turn into a TD drive. Meanwhile, the opposing team was being kept within one score.

Now that defense is gone. And so is the luxury of knowing you can 3 and out multiple times while still coming back to win.

He has to score to keep us in games. I believe in the average NFL game the average winning team in the NFL scores 28pts. That leaves 30 pts as objective if you want to win football games. But with the big contract the issue will become - does this team become the Saints, Packers or Steelers? Because once that contract is signed, our team will be thinner and Wilson is going to have to produce in spite of the excuses. He won't have the help he got in years past.

The question is whether he is the kind of elite that can carry a team that is missing pieces or the kind that puts up good numbers but cannot overcome the holes his own large contract creates. It also bothers me that Carroll does not seem to want to put the offense on his shoulders. Is that because of Carroll's predilection to the run game or because he feels Wilson cannot be the guy to carry the full load consistently for 4 quarters? (Carroll seemed just fine with passing all over the place at USC - so it isn't some aversion to the pass.)

Sidestepping away from the "Elite" conversation over to $$$$ eh. (That's a body.)

Now here me out on this, don't jump the gun. Give me a chance to sell you on my logic & reasoning here.

You're concerned with not being able to score enough points?

So your answer to that is to dump Wilson, and go with a game manager, or some rookie....? To score more points? You would score less.

The Seahawks under-performed these last few years, not because they payed Wilson. They under-performed because of CaBevell. They are back on the rise now because they got rid of that problem. That is a false correlation.

Btw Pete pounded the rock at USC with Lendale White (Carson) & Reggie Bush (Penny) a two-headed attack. He is doing what he has always done.


Pete Carroll with a game manager would be a disaster. He needs Wilson.

CASE KEENUM 2015-2018

G 37 | 21-16

64.1%
46 TD
29 INT
87.9 Passer Rating (Higher than Newton LOL)

Rushing

3.1 YPC
251 Yards
3 TD

This is what $20M APY will buy you in 2020 if you let Wilson walk to save 7% on the salary cap. Mediocre journeyman game manager. I highly advise to re-think the idea of moving on from Wilson to save a little Salary Cap Space.

-or-

RUSSELL WILSON 2015-2018

58 G | 34-23-1

64.8%
112 TD
35 INT
7.8 YPA
100.6 Rating

Rushing

5.3 YPC
1625 Yards
5 TD

3 Receptions for 3 Yards and a TD.

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 30,32,27,19 ]]


IN A BETTER WAY TO PUT IT

Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?


Carroll can make up the difference quite easily by drafting and developing some young guys on defense. He does it all the time, you can bank on that, that is his history. I have no faith especially in such an old-school offensive system they can hit the lottery again and find another QB. (Still drafting some QBs here and there hoping you get lucky, but you can't bank on it.)

The smart play is to re-sign Wilson, and build a young and hungry defense.

The Seahawks have their own advantage that a lot of these teams with franchise QBs don't have. A defensive genius Head Coach.

The Seahawks can have the best of both worlds. A stud QB, and a top Defense via Pete Carroll.
With Solari now on board to fix the O-Line. This is a logical plan that can win them another championship.