Russell Wilson is Elite | I'm Putting the Nail in the Coffin

[Northwest Seahawk]

Right now all I can say is sometimes he's elite sometimes he's not and that's the real truth of Wilson this season. He's 6th in passer rating according to Brock this week so that's pretty damn good . Elite to me is a player that can carry a team i'm not sure Wilson fits that criteria this year. I'd like to see how he plays down the stretch we'll revisit this at the end of the season then we can look at this year in totality.

Wilson has carried the team for 3.5 seasons. With a T-Jack in his place they go back to the basement.

Cabevell sabotaged these last few seasons. Now with those clowns out of the way, things are looking up. They are improving rapidly.


Which would you prefer to happen?

Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?

Please choose the one you liken best.

Keep in mind Pete has a knack for developing young defensive players on the cheap to makeup the $$$$ difference.

Wilson is a great QB his numbers are great in most categories it's really that simple. Elite well i'm not sure I can agree with that.

 

[Tical21]

New ownership will no doubt extend Russ as one of their first moves. Not gonna walk through the door and ship out the franchise's best (or second best) quarterback. We are about 6 years away from any kind of real decision on Russell.

 

[Northwest Seahawk]

New ownership will no doubt extend Russ as one of their first moves. Not gonna walk through the door and ship out the franchise's best (or second best) quarterback. We are about 6 years away from any kind of real decision on Russell.

The team probably won't be sold before he has to be resigned. New ownership is always a concern though. I hope someone like Gates buys them.

 

[Uncle Si]

TBF, I don't think Russ was ever top-5 APY. If the sample size were smaller, I'd say you have a point about the SB winner being too random. But we're going on 20 years now. I've been watching this for about 10. And every year, the playoffs are dominated with the top-QBs. Of the 12 playoff teams on any given year, 9 of them minimum are quarterbacked by top-13 QB's. And you know what happens? They almost always end up losing to a team with a better roster and a cheaper quarterback. If you want to make the playoffs often, pay your very good QB a ton of money. If you want to win a Super Bowl, don't. Interesting to see what happens when Goff comes up. Kudos to the Bills for recognizing that paying Tyrod would be franchise suicide. Like the Lions, like the Vikings, like the Redskins.

Your Case Keenum argument would hold a lot more water if Nick Foles didn't win a Super Bowl with a great roster last year.

Don't compare the Seahawks to the Bills.

But, you may struggle and not have a QB for a while. That's an X-factor. You don't know what you're gonna get. But you do know that if you pay a QB at the top of the position, you won't have a Super Bowl caliber roster for at least a few years.

I was against signing Russ last time. And it is probably more coincidence than not, but what happened to our team and our record since we signed him was almost EXACTLY what I told all of you was going to happen if we signed him.

Russ can win a Super Bowl. If we give him arguably the top defense in NFL history and HOF caliber RB.

You should really research that before you follow this line.

Removing Brady from the mix because hes an outlier, there have been two qbs to win a super bowl in the last 10 years with small cap hits

So the theory you are proposing is false. It is the elite qbs taking their teams to the super Bowl, with low paid young qbs like Wilson and Wentz (Foles played last 6 games) as outliers.

Either option is a risk, but the percentage to success is easily identifiable by just doing some light research.

Just looking at the losing qbs in thise last 10 reinforces the notion that the elite qbs are the ones playing in these games

 

[Ozzy]

Right now all I can say is sometimes he's elite sometimes he's not and that's the real truth of Wilson this season. He's 6th in passer rating according to Brock this week so that's pretty damn good . Elite to me is a player that can carry a team i'm not sure Wilson fits that criteria this year. I'd like to see how he plays down the stretch we'll revisit this at the end of the season then we can look at this year in totality.

What do you call last year with zero offensive line, no running game and a defense that was middle of the pack? How are people arguing Russ can't carry a team? In 2015 he carried the team as well for most of the year.

#2 rated passer all time and he's not elite......seems reasonable. :shock:

 

[lobohawk]

I can't remove the impact of the Offense and HC on a QBs performance. Generally I view top QBs as Franchise QBs (meet the needs of a SB team for many years). Elevating to elite hangs on the other components of the team. Less the players than the scheme, play calling, and HC philosophy. Brady is a franchise QB who landed in a situation allowing for him to play at elite levels. Ditto for Brees. Rivers is a franchise QB who's quality has ebbed and flowed with the coaching, etc. Ditto for the usual reference to Marino.

Wilson is a franchise QB whose play has ebbed and flowed somewhat due to the issues and style of their offense. Sometimes elite plays, mixed with head scratching ones. Time will tell, but the term Elite is a bit overplayed. Too many variables in play to definitively carve out certain QBs as above others.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?


Carroll can make up the difference quite easily by drafting and developing some young guys on defense. He does it all the time, you can bank on that, that is his history. I have no faith especially in such an old-school offensive system they can hit the lottery again and find another QB. (Still drafting some QBs here and there hoping you get lucky, but you can't bank on it.)

The smart play is to re-sign Wilson, and build a young and hungry defense.
p.

To play Devil's Advocate I'd say so far the only sample or factual context is our 2013 roster where Pete and John built one of the top 2-3 defenses in the history of the NFL. But what helped pushed that roster over the top?

The cap space to go out and sign guys like Clemons, Avril, McDaniels, trade for Harvin and keep guys like Mebane, McQuistan, M-Rob, T-Jack and other key depth players on special teams.

We have Russell soaking up 20% of our salary cap? you better be perfect in drafting that young defense, there is NO room for error because you're not going to have that extra cap space to put you over the top.............and that's WITH one of the greatest defenses in history, we have to assume the next defense will be a lesser version of that.

Again, not saying we can't win another SB with paying Russell, but the fact is when you have to pay him 30+M, it makes the margins for error that much more severe.

 

[Uncle Si]

You can look at the Seahawks... or just look across the landscape of the NFL.

The Rams are benefiting from the 2013 Seahawks model, as are the Chiefs. But how many other teams are struggling to find success with young or cheap qbs and cap spent elsewhere? Cowboys? Broncos? Jags? Titans?

Super bowl winners, for the most part, have well paid elite level qbs. Sure, the Panthers, Packers, Giants, Saints even seahawks have failed to uphold consistency after paying the qb. But the percentage of teams in the Super bowl who have paid their qb is far more than those that are relying on the next Wilson, Goff, Mahomes to get them there within 4 years before having to either pay up or start the process over.

There is no right answer, only risk. The question, as Fade put it, is where do you want to take that risk: at qb, or the other positions.

The data is there to support one and just enough to entice the other.

The only model that truly works consistently is to get your elite qb to play for mid level salary while his wife makes all the real money.

 

[beaumaris]

@Fade, the most intriguing part of this post so far, to me, has been the discussion about Rodgers.

If Russell can't be considered elite primarily because he holds the ball too long and misses critical windows against zone coverage, can we then say Rodgers is not elite because he holds the ball even longer?

To be honest, I have never studied Rodgers on tape. My guess is that he holds the ball for different reasons than Russell, but it is a pretty interesting thought. TBF, I hold Rodgers in lower esteem than most do. He is an absolute god talent-wise, but he doesn't put it together often enough for me or win enough games. They're 4-5 far too often, and usually without horrible rosters.

Brees goes 7-9 all the time. And I think he is one of the all-time greats.

Where most of these casual fans lose track is they want to make everything a 1 to 1 comparison.

What I am more interested in is how can a guy perform, when you take things away from him. The degree of difficulty.

The systems, and O-lines these QBs play in can have a wild impact on their play.

Goff & Trubisky prove my point resoundingly. So if you believe a QB can be helped by systems & O-line? Can't QBs be hindered by them as well? The answer is yes.

Matt Ryan & Andrew Luck prove it, really any QB you find proves it. When you dive into their numbers the years they get the best O-Line play, they have their best seasons.

The true greats find a way to maintain their production, and get it done regardless. Wilson is in that category irrefutably.

Roethisberger is a fraud as an example.

Top defenese, top O-Lines, top offensive coaching, top skill players. He has been handed everything. The lowest degree of difficulty. And he can't get the Steelers back to the big game? Fraud.

Give Wilson all of that season after season, and he would have a cabinet full of trophies. Rivers, Brees, etc as well.

Wilson has been playing in the opposite side of the spectrum offensively (-minus defense). A super high degree of difficulty.

So if Big Ben is elite, then Russell Wilson is elite. Wilson has outproduced him while being placed in an impossible, unsustainable situation for 50ish games. This in no small sample size here.

When you look at the bottom portion of the elite tier. Ryan, Luck. Newton. These guys crumble behind bad O-Lines. Wilson bodies them, and then puts up numbers right there with many players that people consider the GOAT's of the sport.

The most underrated player in Seattle sports history.


On to Rodgers he is actually very similar to Wilson in terms of style of play. They love to hold the ball and extend plays looking for the home run downfield. Missing checkdowns and wideopen players underneath. When it works fans cheer, when it doesn't well Wilson held the ball too long, not elite, he can't see. With Rodgers it's let's make every excuse in the book for him.

It's hard to grade out who is actually worse at holding the ball because. Wilson's lines have been so bad that it doesn't hurt their DVOA protection rating that bad.

While Rodgers kills the great O-Lines he has had by holding the ball.

2017
Wilson: Oline PFF = 25, DVOA Protection = 25

Rodgers Oline PFF = 5, DVOA Protection = 28

Wilson & Rodgers are the two hardest great QBs to block for. But to get an accurate comparison we need Seattle's O-Line play to get into the top 10. Regardless I wouldn't care anyway because Wilson's numbers would explode, due to how elite he is if he ever found himself with a top 10 O-Line.

I am too lazy to re-pull up the numbers on Brees & Brady. But they obviously help their lines. It is a style of play choice.
And yes Wilson needs to improve in this area, I am not absolving him of it.

Just pointing out even other elite guys don't get the ball out quickly, you cannot have a double standard.

Rodgers loses because he has a horrible attitude, and struggles with adversity. He is amazing beating up on tomato cans, but put another elite QB in front of him, and he usually wilts in the clutch. He is something like 0-34 when trailing against a winning team in the 4th qtr.

He has had good teams around him as well. The defenses have been a problem in years past, but that is not the case this year. The Packers defense leads the league in sacks. They have a top Oline, with a great mix of skill players, and a good young runningback. Yet he can't manage a winning record? LOL.

Rodgers also has a horrible career record on the road.

These guys have worts. They are not as great as the media tells you they are. Put them under the microscope and you will see.

Loving this discussion, great thread Fade. :2thumbs:

 

[Fade]

I'd rather pay Khalil Tate 1M per year than pay Russ 30. Get back to what got us there in the first place, a cheap, running QB.

Since 1999, only one QB has won a Super Bowl while being paid in the top 5 QBs. You say we have no snowball's chance without Wilson? Numbers say we have no snowballs chance with him.

1/20 QBs over 20 years vs. <1/20 QBs ever to start in the last 20...

Oooh, this is what I was looking for as well

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2035 ... t-paid-qbs

This was as of 2017. One of the pitfalls of evaluating a contract number year by year is that there are new market participants ever single year change the makeup of the top 5. Every year 2-3 QBs come up to contract and are given big money. What was once a headline number 2 years ago is relatively tame in the current year of contracts. I would love to see every QB contract of a SB participant QB examined under the context of when they were, if ever, a top 5 paid QB. Why participant? Cause cmon man, evaluating just SB winners is super reductive. Just getting to the SB has to account for some value as a QB, right? No? Then why are we even having this conversation? I can't be bothered to have a conversation with someone who thinks there are only two ways to build a good team and one of them is obviously wrong.

Secondly, and this shouldn't be a surprise, is that large 2nd contract for rookie contract QBs that win a SB are a reward to said QB. Should there be sentimentality in Football? No. Is there? Yes. There's only been what, 2 multiple SB winning QBs in the last 20 years, Brady and Manning although the latter's decade long gap is its own set of intrigue. Even if its irrational to reward a QB for being part of a SB winning team, it happens and that influences that stat.

Yes, this is a very good point. Context is very important. You have guys like Joe Flacco, Jimmy G, Stafford, Derrick Carr, etc. messing up that stat. Just because your top 5 paid doesn't mean your top 5 ability wise. I have already proven Wilson is an elite player, and you have admitted as much Tical.

Adding on to that. Great QB's get paid, and then quickly fall down the list as the guys behind them sign their deals.

When Wilson signed his deal he was the 2nd highest paid QB in the league. Want to take a guess where he is now? The results may shock you.

Also too it is just plain hard to win SuperBowls period.

As an example how many QBs drafted #1 overall in the last 20 years not named Manning have won a Superbowl? So going by that logic you should never draft a QB with the #1 overall pick, unless his name is Manning.

@ Tical please counter mrt144's point, and my add on as well.

 

[scutterhawk]

Great points made - much more pertinent to the real choice facing Seattle than the silly "Russ is elite/not elite" the OP attempted to "nail" shut. :roll:

It comes down to balance. We see the team winning with a run-first offense and a surprisingly competent defense. That was how the team was built during the glory years of the Beast and LOB era.

So, do we continue in that direction and if so can we then afford to pay Wilson $30+ million a year? Don't know. Very tough decision for the Front Office coming up...

No one can argue that Wilson hasn't put up "ELITE" numbers since his arrival here in Seattle, where the haywire logic by some in here like to discredit his "ELITE" play accomplishments, while playing up behind CRAP O-LINES, that were Coached up by Tom Cable, & coordinated by Darryl Bevell ukeface:
To say that Wilson "CAN'T perform without having an elite Run game" or "Can't produce as a Pocket Passer" is absolute nonsense, he's done both ---> see second half of 2015, where there was NO BEASTMODE to help him out.
With a SHITTY O-Line, NO Run Game, & a piss poor kicking game, we were just TWO game's out of making the playoffs in 2017, <-----This doesn't happen WITHOUT having an "ELITE" Russell Wilson.
Some of Y'all actually believe that all we need is a entry level Quarterback to just hand the ball off to our Running Backs? BWAHAHAHAHAHAA!!

 

[Fade]

Right now all I can say is sometimes he's elite sometimes he's not and that's the real truth of Wilson this season. He's 6th in passer rating according to Brock this week so that's pretty damn good . Elite to me is a player that can carry a team i'm not sure Wilson fits that criteria this year. I'd like to see how he plays down the stretch we'll revisit this at the end of the season then we can look at this year in totality.

Wilson has carried the team for 3.5 seasons. With a T-Jack in his place they go back to the basement.

Cabevell sabotaged these last few seasons. Now with those clowns out of the way, things are looking up. They are improving rapidly.


Which would you prefer to happen?

Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?

Please choose the one you liken best.

Keep in mind Pete has a knack for developing young defensive players on the cheap to makeup the $$$$ difference.

Wilson is a great QB his numbers are great in most categories it's really that simple. Elite well i'm not sure I can agree with that.

Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Big Ben, are not the same players when under pressure. Wilson isn't either, but he some how found / finds a way to produce in spite of it, and keep up with those guys. That does not impress you? These guys that are in well oiled machine offensive systems. Yet there is Wilson hanging with them, and rushing for 1700 yards in the process.

Watch Derek Carr two-three years ago when he had a great O-Line, many were considering him for MVP. Now he has been Cable'd. It didn't stop Wilson for 6 years.

Look at Newton's numbers outside of when he played behind the #2 O-Line. Look at Matt Ryan's numbers when he didn't have strong O-Lines. Look at Luck outside of this year. These guys could not survive for 6 seasons under that kind of duress (Luck already proved that). Wilson didn't only survive, he thrived and produced at a high level.

Brady & Brees production goes down playing behind Cable O-Lines than their current situation. Wilson's production would go up playing with Payton or McDaniel in that situation. It went up with Schottenhiemer who isn't a savant when it comes to the passing game.

Wilson is the one being handicapped here.

Yet he finds a way to statistically keep up. He belongs in the group.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1063291679241687041[/tweet]


He plays under a higher degree of difficulty than all of the other supposed "elites", yet statistically keeps up with them.

Is the System "Elite" --> NO.

Is the O-Line "Elite" --> NO. (It has been dreadful actually, it should have crushed his numbers.)

Is the Production "Elite" --> YES!

Is Wilson Elite...... no? Does not compute.

There has to be a reason for his elite production. The only one I can find is that he is pretty damn good, "elite" actually.



Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum / Tarvaris Jackson type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?


Answer the question. Choose one.

 

[Fade]

To play Devil's Advocate I'd say so far the only sample or factual context is our 2013 roster where Pete and John built one of the top 2-3 defenses in the history of the NFL. But what helped pushed that roster over the top?

The cap space to go out and sign guys like Clemons, Avril, McDaniels, trade for Harvin and keep guys like Mebane, McQuistan, M-Rob, T-Jack and other key depth players on special teams.

We have Russell soaking up 20% of our salary cap? you better be perfect in drafting that young defense, there is NO room for error because you're not going to have that extra cap space to put you over the top.............and that's WITH one of the greatest defenses in history, we have to assume the next defense will be a lesser version of that.

Again, not saying we can't win another SB with paying Russell, but the fact is when you have to pay him 30+M, it makes the margins for error that much more severe.

Answer the question, stop side stepping.

Pick one.

Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum/Tarvaris Jackson type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?

 

[mrt144]

To play Devil's Advocate I'd say so far the only sample or factual context is our 2013 roster where Pete and John built one of the top 2-3 defenses in the history of the NFL. But what helped pushed that roster over the top?

The cap space to go out and sign guys like Clemons, Avril, McDaniels, trade for Harvin and keep guys like Mebane, McQuistan, M-Rob, T-Jack and other key depth players on special teams.

We have Russell soaking up 20% of our salary cap? you better be perfect in drafting that young defense, there is NO room for error because you're not going to have that extra cap space to put you over the top.............and that's WITH one of the greatest defenses in history, we have to assume the next defense will be a lesser version of that.

Again, not saying we can't win another SB with paying Russell, but the fact is when you have to pay him 30+M, it makes the margins for error that much more severe.

Answer the question, stop side stepping.

Pick one.

Would you rather have Wilson and a $170M to build the rest of your team?

-or-

A Kase Keenum/Tarvaris Jackson type game manager and a $185M to build the rest of your team?

I can see people not answer because it's set up as a false dichotomy but I digress.

 

[Fade]

[
I can see people not answer because it's set up as a false dichotomy but I digress.

If you have a better propostion, I would gladly hear it.

*EDIT* explanation below.

 

[mrt144]

[
I can see people not answer because it's set up as a false dichotomy but I digress.

If you have a better propostion, I would gladly hear it.

Keep Wilson @ ~33MM and ride him into the ground
Jettison Wilson and hire journeyman @15-20MM
Draft Rookie and let Wilson play out his contract
Extend Wilson with a front loaded contract, draft rookie and then make decision to cut in 2021-2022.

I'm sure there's a mishmash or adjacent things to some of these.

If I was limited to just the two options and pressed I'd keep Wilson and hope that the team gets right on how it evaluates talent in both FA/Trades and the Draft. I prefer that to whatever perceived benefits 15MM in cap space would provide over a journeyman or 25 MM in cap space over rookie that needs to hit their stride around 2020-2021 to mesh with a rising defensive unit.

 

[Fade]

[
I can see people not answer because it's set up as a false dichotomy but I digress.

If you have a better propostion, I would gladly hear it.

Keep Wilson @ ~33MM and ride him into the ground
Jettison Wilson and hire journeyman @15-20MM
Draft Rookie and let Wilson play out his contract
Extend Wilson with a front loaded contract, draft rookie and then make decision to cut in 2021-2022.

I'm sure there's a mishmash or adjacent things to some of these.

If I was limited to just the two options and pressed I'd keep Wilson and hope that the team gets right on how it evaluates talent in both FA/Trades and the Draft. I prefer that to whatever perceived benefits 15MM in cap space would provide over a journeyman or 25 MM in cap space over rookie that needs to hit their stride around 2020-2021 to mesh with a rising defensive unit.

I guess I should walk people through the logic.


The Salary Cap in 2019 will be $200+M (According to John Clayton.)

Wilson at $30M+ APY (His number will be much lower than this in 2019 so I am being conservative.)

= $170M to build the rest of your team.


Kase Keenum type making half = $15M APY (Which he actually makes more than this [conservative]).

= $185M to build the rest of your team.


3 of your choices keep Wilson. 1 Choice involves going with journeyman and ridding Wilson.
What am I not covering?


*EDIT* I have thought about all of the scenarios for a while now. There are a few different choices, but in the end it boils down to pay him (high cap number), or don't. (Franchise Tag also = High Cap Number.)

Because if you go with a rookie, they make no money. So you can keep Wilson in the meantime. (Hedge your bet.)
Until you know that guy can play. See the Chiefs, they kept Smith, until they were sure Mahomes was the real deal.

NFL teams rarely do frontloaded deals, you have to have an absolute ton of cap space to do it. Like the 49ers recently. They usually do mega-signing bonuses though, which lead to lower cap numbers in the beginning, and high towards the end of the contract.

 

[chris98251]

Are those next generation stats comparing Wilson to all starters or only against Elite QB's, there is a difference

 

[Seymour]

Today Wilson is the 11th highest paid QB in the NFL @ $21.9M APY.

Reason is everyone ahead of him has signed well after Wilson (newer contracts).

 

[knownone]

I can't believe this thread is still going. At some point, the mods should change the name of this thread to "is Wilson Elite or not | continuing to beat the dead horse".

I get it, it's a polarizing issue and people are having very real and legitimate conversations about what the Seahawks should do. Here's the thing though, unless the Seahawks stumble upon a franchise QB that can unseat Wilson, Wilson is your guy going forward. The only way that changes is if the Seahawks win less than 6 games next year and Pete retires. Then maybe the door opens up for a new coach to look at the draft and find a guy that fits his system better than Wilson. Even that seems unlikely but it's the only rational scenario I can see at the moment sans landing the next franchise QB in the 4th or 5th round.