Seahawks Quest for the #1 Seed...Exploring Playoff Scenarios

[Seahawkfan80]

I started a thread yesterday suggesting we would benefit more from a sfo win on Sunday, than we would a saints win. I don't want to cause trouble in here, but doesn't this breakdown suggest that it's better for us if the 49 ers win on Sunday?

I just want to know who I should be wanting to lose between those two. Again, no offense meant to 49er haters.

No Dude -- I hate to admit it (really hate to admit it), but I'm right there with you. I was actually just thinking about that as I was getting ready this morning. Regardless of the outcome, that Saints-49ers Game this weekend is going to help the Hawks. That said, there is a piece of me (just a small piece) pulling for a Niners win, as that really changes the dynamic of that Monday Night game for the Hawks. A 49er win changes that Seahawks-Saints game from a "Must Win" to "Would Really LOVE to Have, but not Absolutely Essential" Win.

We can always wash our collective mouths out with soap after the game...Right???

 

[Hawks46]

I know the #1 seed would be nice...but as long as the Niners still have a chance for the division....I will be cheering for them to lose.

I'm with you. Looking at what Hawkscanner has set up, the Niners are a bigger threat to us than the Saints. If the Saints win that game, it's almost certain we take the division, which is step 1. Step 2 is locking up the #1 seed.

Niners. I see only three loseable games: Saints, US and @Arizona the last week. STL has been too inconsistent to expect them to win at SF. If they beat the Saints, then our game with them is a MUST win. Or we need to win out if we lose to them (including Saints game)

Saints. Have the hardest road to trudge. I think it's highly improbable that they beat the Niners, Us, and the Panthers twice. They haven't swept the Panthers in 3 yrs and this is the best team the Panthers have fielded since 2005. All we need is to hang a loss on them (pretty much lock it up there), or to have Carolina beat them. If they beat us and the Niners, they have a good run at a tiebreaker with us.

Panthers. Also have a hard road to trudge, but like Hawkscanner said, we own the h2h matchup. Even if they win out, they can't be the 1st seed unless we implode or have a Wilson injury.

Detroit. This is actually the dark horse. They don't have a lot of loseable games on the schedule. By the time they play GB, Rodgers will likely still be out. The only other team that might beat them is Philly. I think we still win on SoV/SoS tiebreak as they play Tampa and the Vikings twice.

We really need to keep winning but the team doesn't seem complacent. Basically, if we beat both NO and SF, it's most likely ours. Depending on how the rest of the NFC is looking, we might be able to rest starters part of AZ or at least half of STL.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Seahawks Quest for the #1 Seed ...
Exploring Playoff Scenarios

A 33-10 win against the Falcons, coupled with a 49er Loss to the Panthers made Sunday and awesome day for your Seattle Seahawks in their quest for the #1 Playoff Seed. Seattle is in pole position with a 2 lap lead over the Saints and a 2 ½ lap lead over the 49ers, Lions, and Panthers.

950 KJR-am’s Mitch Levy often does a “Mr. Playoffs” segment where he examines all the playoff scenarios. We’re going to do something similar here, taking a look at a few scenarios for the Seahawks top competitors and where they all stand as far as the #1 Seed is concerned at this moment in time. We’ll take a look at each of the top 4 teams and examine the possibilities – assuming that the each team somehow ends the season tied with the Seahawks. Before we get in to that though, it’s incumbent to lay out how ties are broken. Now, someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding that according to the NFL’s official website that any potential ties for the #1 seed would be broken using the Wild Card tiebreakers. On the league’s website, we read …

To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.

In other words, if a situation ever presented itself where 2 teams in the same conference (who were not in the same division) ever tied for the conference’s best record, we would use the Wild Card tie breakers in order to decide who ends up with the #1 Seed. The NFL’s official Wild Card tie breakers are as follows …

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Source:
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
Keep those in mind as we move forward. Now, let’s get going by taking a look at each of the Seahawks 4 top competitors at this moment in time …

Detroit Lions (6-3)

Week 1 – vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (Win 34-24)
Week 2— at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Loss 21-25)
Week 3 – at Washington Redskins [3-6] (Win 27-20)
Week 4 – vs. Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 40-32)
Week 5 – at Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Loss 9-22)
Week 6 – at Cleveland Browns [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 7 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [6-4] (Loss 24-27)
Week 8 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 31-30)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 21-19)

Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [3-6]
Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 13 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4]
Week 14 – at Philadelphia Eagles [5-5]
Week 15 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-5]
Week 16 – vs. New York Giants [3-6]
Week 17 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-7]

Record of Remaining Opponents 22-41 (.349)
Strength of Victory … 24-31 (.436)

In this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Lions win out the rest of their games to get to 13-3 … the Seahawks lose 2 of their remaining 6 to both the 49ers and the Saints … and both the Niners and Saints finish 12-4. [Don’t ask me how or who the Niners or Saints would lose to … just play along for argument’s sake, OK?]

In that scenario, here is how the tie would be broken …

Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA

Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Lions … 11-2
Seahawks … 11-2 (if assuming worst case scenario and losses against both the 49ers and Saints)

Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games (minimum of 4)…

Lions … 1-1 (against Vikings and Cardinals)
Seahawks 2-0 (against Vikings and Cardinals)

Since these teams don’t have a minimum of 4 common games between them, we would hop down to the next tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #4 – Strength of Victory …
Lions Strength of Victory (as of 11/11/13) … 24-31 (.436)
Seahawks Strength of Victory (as of 11/11/13) … 30-51 (.3703)

At this moment in time, the Lions would win the tie in this scenario (though obviously the strength of victory will change by that point). Of the 5 top teams in the NFC profiled here, the Lions have the easiest strength of schedule remaining (.349), so in theory 13-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility at all. Still, I would contend that it’s highly unlikely that this scenario would actually play out, as I just don’t see New Orleans and San Francisco BOTH having worse records than Detroit. So in reality, the Lions probably aren’t much of a factor at this point for the #1 seed.


Carolina Panthers (6-3)

Week 1 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 7-12)
Week 2 – at Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Loss 23-24)
Week 3 – vs. New York Giants [3-6] (Win 38-0)
Week 4 – BYE
Week 5 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Loss 6-22)
Week 6 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (Win 35-10)
Week 7 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 30-15)
Week 8 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8] (Win 31-13)
Week 9 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 34-10)
Week 10 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-3] (Win 10-9)

Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – vs. New England Patriots [7-2]
Week 12 – at Miami Dolphins [4-4]
Week 13 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 14 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 15 – vs. New York Jets [5-4]
Week 16 – vs. New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 17 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7]

Record of Remaining Opponents 32-29 (.5245)
Strength of Victory … 17-37 (.3148)

In this scenario, let’s assume that Carolina wins out the rest of its games while Seattle ends up losing to both San Francisco and New Orleans. So, both clubs would come in at 13-3. In addition, let’s say that San Francisco and New Orleans each finish 12-4 or 11-5. Here’s how the tiebreakers would work …

Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
Seattle Won 12-7 in Week 1

This scenario is pretty straightforward. Because Seattle won against the Panthers clear back in Week 1, they would win the tiebreaker and be the #1 Seed. Who would have believed that a win clear back in Week 1 could be as significant as it appears it’s going to be?


San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)

Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-6]
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-1]
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 30-34 (.4687)
Strength of Victory … 21-34 (.3818)

Because the Seahawks and 49ers are in the same division, a tie in this case would fall under the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules, which are as follows …

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Source:
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

In this scenario, let’s assume that Seattle loses BOTH of its remaining road games (San Francisco and New York), but wins out the rest of its remaining schedule. So, each team would finish up the season 13-3. Additionally, New Orleans, Carolina, and the Lions each finish with records of 12-4 or below.

Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …

In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
49ers … 5-1
Seahawks … 5-1

They would be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …
Again, in this scenario we’ll assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …

49ers …
Carolina … Loss
Indianapolis … Loss
Houston … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
New Orleans …Win
Tampa Bay … Win
49ers Record … 5-2

Seahawks …
Carolina … Win
Indianapolis … Loss
Houston … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
New Orleans …Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Seahawks Record … 6-1

Because the 49ers lost to the Panthers yesterday (and the Seahawks beat them), Seattle would win home field advantage in this scenario. The Panthers did the Seahawks a major favor.

So, even if Seattle ends up losing to San Francisco, the Seahawks would STILL win the #1 Seed even if they end up tied with them.

One game to really keep an eye on in particular if you hadn’t already noticed – next weekend the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome down in New Orleans. Either way, win or lose, that game will benefit the Seahawks. And speaking of the Saints, we’ll end by taking a look at them …


New Orleans Saints (7-2)

Week 1 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 23-17)
Week 2 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8] (Win 16-14)
Week 3 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 31-7)
Week 4 – vs. Miami Dolphins [4-4] (Win 38-17)
Week 5 – at Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 26-18)
Week 6 – at New England Patriots [7-2] (Loss 27-30)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – vs. Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Win 35-17)
Week 9 – at New York Jets [5-4] (Loss 20-26)
Week 10 -- vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 49-17)

Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-3]
Week 12 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Week 13 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1]
Week 14 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3]
Week 15 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 16 – at Carolina Panthers [6-3]
Week 17 -- vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 33-31 (.5156)
Strength of Victory … 24-39 (.3809)

In this scenario, let’s assume that the Saints win out the remainder of their games (which obviously would mean beating Seattle) … and the Seahawks win out the remainder of their games (minus that loss to New Orleans).

So in that case, each of the teams would finish at 14-2. Here is how that would go …

Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)…

This scenario is very clear. If Seattle loses to the Saints (even if they win the rest of their games), the Saints would end up with the #1 Seed. If Seattle wins and they end up tied with the Saints, the Seahawks would get the #1 Seed.

That Saints game on Monday Night, December 2nd at Century Link Field is the biggest game remaining of the Seahawks schedule – at this point in fact, the only one that we could honestly call a “Must Win.”

After last night’s convincing win over the Cowboys (49-17), going 7-0 doesn’t sound all that far fetched for this team. BUT … looking at the Saints remaining schedule (see above) reveals why that might be far harder in reality. Over their last 7 games, the Saints face …

The 49ers (at Home) next week (think that Harbaugh and company won’t be looking to punish somebody after getting embarrassed at home this past Sunday?)

The Seahawks (on the Road) on December 2nd. The Seahawks haven’t lost a home game since December 24, 2011 and are19-8 all time on Monday Night Football – best winning percentage in the history of the league (.708) on MNF.

The Panthers TWICE (on December 8th and two weeks later on the 22nd). San Francisco found out yesterday that the Seahawks 12-7 victory on the road was a fairly monumental feat.

The Rams (on the Road) on December 15th. The Colts weren’t feeling very Lucky after a 38-8 thrashing by the Rams this past weekend. They found out first hand St. Louis is deceptively good.

4 of the Saints last 7 games are against opponents who at this moment in time are looking like playoff teams. The odds of going 7-0 against that schedule (I would say) are long as in al likelihood there are probably at least 2 losses in there. Of the top 5 teams in the NFC right now, the Saints have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule remaining (.5156).

As we sit right now, your Seattle Seahawks are very much in the catbird seat. With 4 of their last 6 remaining games at home (where they are 22-7 since the start of the Pete Carroll era) and a very mortal Giants team on the road, it looks very promising that the Seahawks will indeed be the ones to swoop away with the NFC’s #1 Seed. Feather your nest with that!

Wow, impressive. It really lays out how important that NO game is. The SF one doesn't matter that much (although I suspect we will ream them soundly)--we're two and a half games ahead of them and probably have got the div locked up.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

I would rather the Saints win against the 9ers,that way when we beat the Saints Monday night at home it's basically game over for the top seed.

I'm feelin that.

 

[Hawkscanner]

In your first scenario, tiebreaker 3 would be applied, not 4. Seattle and Detroit would have 4 common games, not 2 (Minnesota, Arizona, NY Giants, Tampa). Seattle would win the tiebreaker because they would have gone undefeated in that docket, and Detroit lost to the Cards. Right?

OH MAN! (Smacking my own forehead) You're absolutely correct. You know how you can stare at data, stare at data, stare at data ... and miss what's right in front of your face? Geez! Absolutely right, in the case of Detroit it WOULD come down to #3 (Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games) BEFORE #4 (Strength of Victory). That's a good thing too because as of this moment if that scenario somehow inexplicably played itself out ... and the Hawks and Lions tied for #3, the Seahawks would lose the #1 Seed and HFA based on SOV. I'd say that's highly unlikely for all of that to actually happen ... but good to know for argument's sake.

Fixed Original Post to Note that.

 

[Hawkscanner]

I would rather the Saints win against the 9ers,that way when we beat the Saints Monday night at home it's basically game over for the top seed.

I'm feelin that.

I dunno. I hear what you're saying and there's a part of me that agrees with that. It would be nice to see the Niners absolutely buried and for that Week 14 game at Candlestick to REALLY truly not matter whatsoever. That said, I would like a little breathing room over the Saints -- but as I mentioned above, over the next 7 games the Saints play ...

The 49ers (this next weekend)
Us (the Seahawks) on December 2nd at the CLINK where the Hawks simply don't lose.
The Panthers Twice.
The Rams (who obliterated the Colts this past weekend).

So, I'd say there's at least a loss or 2 there for the Saints.

I dunno, as I said, either way that San Francisco/New Orleans game helps the Hawks.

 

[ChiefHawk]

A lot of great info there - but the real good news is that we are in the drivers seat, and we completely control our own destiny.

 

[C-Dub]

Damn dude. A lot more analysis than what me and another guy went through on Sunday.

In summary: Tiebreaking scenarios don't look good for Seattle outside of the division.

So...
1. We need to beat the Saints IMO.
2. We have to beat the "bad" teams.
3. The 9ers game isn't as big, since they lost to the Panthers.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Damn dude. A lot more analysis than what me and another guy went through on Sunday.

In summary: Tiebreaking scenarios don't look good for Seattle outside of the division.

I dunno that I would say that. The only 2 that are at all problematic would be:

the Lions (IF the Seahawks ended the season tied with them and IF it came down to Strength of Victory) then the Lions would win hands down ...

and the Saints if the Hawks fail to take care of business at home. Other than that, I would say no.

So...
1. We need to beat the Saints IMO.

(Absolutely Yes at this point. Though as I said, besides playing the Hawks the Saints also play the 49ers, the Panthers twice, and the Rams. Ain't no way IMO that the Saints go 7-0 down the stretch.)

2. We have to beat the "bad" teams.

Yep. Though if the Hawks simply take care of business at home ... and just win their home games ... I'd say that HFA is theirs even if for some reason they end up kicking away the road games.

3. The 9ers game isn't as big, since they lost to the Panthers.

Correct, it's not as big ... that is, unless the Hawks decide they want to start going on a losing streak for some odd reason -- then it most certainly would be. Still, beating the 49ers (besides being oh so satisfying) would definitely be the preferable course of action. It sure would be nice to give the 49ers the little Mortal Kombat "Finish Him" in Week 14.

 

[chawx]

Hey, @Hawkscanner....

FANTASTIC POST!! - Please update this every week and I'll love you long time!

 

[Sac]

Hey, @Hawkscanner....

FANTASTIC POST!! - Please update this every week and I'll love you long time!

 

[Hawkscanner]

Hey, @Hawkscanner....

FANTASTIC POST!! - Please update this every week and I'll love you long time!

Uhhhhh Zoul ... I wouldn't go there if I were you. My wife, she's a jealous woman and she'd be bustin' the proton pack out on you real quick. :death2:

 

[BlueTalons]

Hey, @Hawkscanner....

FANTASTIC POST!! - Please update this every week and I'll love you long time!

Uhhhhh Zoul ... I wouldn't go there if I were you. My wife, she's a jealous woman and she'd be bustin' the proton pack out on you real quick. :death2:

"Who ya gona call? ..."

And this may come to pass as well... :hmmmm:


GO HAWKS!!

 

[StoneCold]

Al Davis summed up what we need to do. "Just win baby!"

In the SF vs NO game I think a tie is the best mathematical outcome. Each team gets a ding and we don't have to root for Kaeperdink.

Go Hawks

 

[tdlabrie]

In the SF vs NO game I think a tie is the best mathematical outcome.

Assuming that doesn't happen, what is really the best for Seattle? My heart says I hope NO beats the lousy whiners, then goes on to lose some of its tough games. But what's the mathematics? Who should we really root for?

 

[BlueTalons]

In the SF vs NO game I think a tie is the best mathematical outcome.

Assuming that doesn't happen, what is really the best for Seattle? My heart says I hope NO beats the lousy whiners, then goes on to lose some of its tough games. But what's the mathematics? Who should we really root for?

This is all based on "what if.." scenarios. If the Hawks take care of what THEY can control (that is WIN) then all this is a moot point. We are going through all this what if stuff for "worst case" scenarios. In that case, ALWAYS root for what gives us the best chance for the division title FIRST.

GO HAWKS!!

 

[Hawkscanner]

In the SF vs NO game I think a tie is the best mathematical outcome.

Assuming that doesn't happen, what is really the best for Seattle? My heart says I hope NO beats the lousy whiners, then goes on to lose some of its tough games. But what's the mathematics? Who should we really root for?

I've been giving this some long and hard thought ... and in the end, I would say that rooting for New Orleans would probably be the prudent move. Let me lay it out for you why ...

Let's say that the 49ers end up winning this weekend and beating the Saints. While that might make several Seahawks fans happy in the here and now, let's play this forward and explore what could happen.

The 49ers would then be 7-3 ... and the Saints would fall to 7-3 as well. A win against the Saints would mean that the 49ers would be just 2 games behind the Seahawks for the NFC West lead.

The 49ers face the Redskins (on the road) and the Rams (at home) after that. Let's project wins in those games as well ... and say that the Seahawks win the Viking game ... and the Saints beat the Falcons in Week 12 (all plausible and predictable).

Let's further say that the Seahawks end up somehow LOSING that Monday Night matchup to the Saints. That's a good Saints team, so that's entirely possible. Let's also say that a re-energized 49ers team ends up beating the Seahawks in San Francisco in Week 14 and winning out the rest of their games.

Additionally, let's also say that the Seahawks (outside of losing to the 49ers and Saints) win the rest of their games as well.

That would change the equation quite a bit. Here’s how that would look …

San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [8-3] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-3] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [1-8] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (WIN in this scenario)


Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Week 1 – at Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Win 12-7)
Week 2 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-3] (Win 29-3)
Week 3 – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 45-17)
Week 4 – at Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 23-20)
Week 5 – at Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 28-34)
Week 6 – vs. Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 20-13)
Week 7 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 34-22)
Week 8 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
Week 9 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [1-8] (Win 27-24)
Week 10 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 33-10)
Week 11—vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 12 – BYE
Week 13 – vs. New Orleans Saints [7-2] (LOSS in this scenario)
Week 14 – at San Francisco 49ers [10-3] (LOSS in this scenario)
Week 15 – at New York Giants [3-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 16 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (WIN in this scenario)
Week 17 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)


Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …

In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. Like last time, we move on to the next tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

Let's say that the Seahawks and 49ers only loss in the division is to each other (i.e. each sweeps the Rams and Cardinals and is 1-1 against each other) ...

49ers … 5-1
Seahawks … 5-1

They would be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …

Again, in this scenario we’ll assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …

49ers …
Indianapolis … Loss
Rams … Win
Houston … Win
Cardinals … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
Carolina … Loss
New Orleans …Win
Rams … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Atlanta … Win
Cardinals … Win
49ers Record … 10-2

Seahawks …
Carolina … Win
Jacksonville … Win
Houston … Win
Indianapolis … Loss
Tennessee … Win
Arizona … Win
St. Louis … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Atlanta … Win
New Orleans … Loss
Arizona … Win
St. Louis … Win
Seahawks Record … 10-2

The Seahawks and 49ers would again be tied, so we would move on to the next tiebreaker ...

Tiebreaker #4 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

49ers ...
Week 1 -- Packers ... Win
Week 2 -- Seahawks ... Loss
Week 4 -- Rams ... Win
Week 6 -- Cardinals ... Win
Week 10 -- Panthers ... Loss
Week 11 -- Saints ... Win
Week 12 -- Redskins ... Win
Week 13 -- Rams ... Win
Week 14 -- Seahawks ... Win
Week 15 – Buccaneers … Win
Week 16 – Falcons … Win
Week 17 – Cardinals … Win

49ers NFC Record would be ... 10-2

Seahawks ...
Week 1 -- Panthers ... Win
Week 2 -- 49ers ... Win
Week 7 -- Cardinals ... Win
Week 8 -- Rams ... Win
Week 9 -- Buccaneers ... Win
Week 10 -- Falcons ... Win
Week 11 -- Vikings ... Win
Week 13 -- Saints ... Loss
Week 15 -- Gaints ... Win
Week 16 – Cardinals … Win
Week 17 – Rams … Win

Seahawks NFC Record would be ... 10-2

Because the Seahawks and 49ers would again be tied ... we move on to the next tiebreaker …

Tiebreaker #5 – Strength of Victory …

Here’s where the tie would probably be broken. Two games separate the Seahawks schedule from the 49ers Schedule. Here they are …

49ers …
Week 1 – Green Bay Packers [5-4 Record] Won 34-28
Week 12 – Washington Redskins [3-6 Record]
Combined Record of Opponents … 8-10

Seahawks …
Week 11 – Minnesota Vikings [2-7 Record]
Week 15 – New York Giants [3-6 Record]
Combined Record of Opponents … 5-13

Therefore, if all that played out (and it very well could) … by virtue of the schedule the 49ers would be the ones winning the NFC West – not the Seahawks. The Hawks would end up falling clear down to the #5 Seed.

So in the end, it's probably just better to hope that the Saints end up throwing the last shovel full of dirt on the 49ers this weekend rather than giving this 49er zombie any chance to resurrect itself.

 

[IBleedBlueAndGreen]

According to ESPN their Playoff Machine will become active after week nine using this link:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Bookmark it, it's a good (and fun) tool to use.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I don't see the Lions hanging around. They'll fade away. The 1/2 seeds will be between us and New Orleans.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Hawkscanner, in your scenario, we lose to SF and NO. Well, if NO beats SF in that scenario, the only other losses on their schedule are having to be swept by Caro, which, while possible, isn't likely. That means they'll end up 13-3 and take HFA.

SF winning means we have to lose to both of them to lose HFA. NO winning means we lose to NO, we lose HFA.

It's better to root for SF.