Something that's been bothering me

[Tempest_Crow]

Granted statistics can always be manipulated or just grossly wrong but there's reason why their called trends.

Teams that won the Super Bowl with the most wins during regular-season:
1960s: 1 of 4 (25%)
1970s: 8 of 10 (80%)
1980s: 6 of 10 (60%)
1990s: 4 of 10 (40%)
2000s: 2 of 8 (25%)

In 2009, for the fifth consecutive season, the team with the best regular-season record (Tennessee Titans, 13-3) did not win the Lombardi Trophy. The previous season, the New England Patriots and Tom Brady (right) were 18-0 in 2007 heading into the Super Bowl and lost. The last team with the best record to win it was the Patriots in 2003.

I'm hoping we keep the trend of bucking the norms.

Go Hawks!

 

[Cartire]

2009 saints were 13-3 and did win.

 

[calihawk]

All those trend stats mean is parity has arrived and not going anywhere.

The best team will win and it is the hawks!

 

[Cartire]

All those trend stats mean is parody has arrived and not going anywhere.

The best team will win and it is the hawks!

Parity

 

[calihawk]

Thanks CARTIRE

 

[The Outfield]

It's not about who is the best team. It's about who the NFL wants to win.

 

[Scottemojo]

Would you rather we win a bit less so you can feel more secure about our chances?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Granted statistics can always be manipulated or just grossly wrong but there's reason why their called trends.

Teams that won the Super Bowl with the most wins during regular-season:
1960s: 1 of 4 (25%)
1970s: 8 of 10 (80%)
1980s: 6 of 10 (60%)
1990s: 4 of 10 (40%)
2000s: 2 of 8 (25%)

In 2009, for the fifth consecutive season, the team with the best regular-season record (Tennessee Titans, 13-3) did not win the Lombardi Trophy. The previous season, the New England Patriots and Tom Brady (right) were 18-0 in 2007 heading into the Super Bowl and lost. The last team with the best record to win it was the Patriots in 2003.

I'm hoping we keep the trend of bucking the norms.

Go Hawks!

Those are decent odds considering there are now 12 teams in the playoffs. 25% is 1 and 4 chance.....

 

[Tempest_Crow]

"Would you rather we win a bit less so you can feel more secure about our chances?"

No, not in the least bit. I am excited for the run, and if we win on Sunday I will feel more secure in our position. I guess I feel that sometimes a team that is used to working hard for a win will usually do well in a system of one and done. Why I think we have been bucking the trend is some of the hard wins we have had. Tampa, St Louis, Carolina and two of those were on the road were hard fought gut checks. Anytime you come from behind on any NFL team and win is an accomplishment.

The playoff game against Atlanta, was one of those where we were the hottest team in the playoffs, no-one wanted to play us. We go and lose because of a last second poor performance of our vaunted defense. Then the team with the best record loses to the "ners". I honestly though we could have won that game.

I just cant find a correlation of why that is a trend. What is a common factor? I don't know maybe I'm looking for something that's not there. Maybe too much Calculus and Materials Science homework.

 

[rideaducati]

Hey Cartire, is that second eyebrow coming off your avatar when the Seahawks CRUSH the whiners tomorrow?

 

[dontbelikethat]

I think if you look at % of the team with the best record getting to the superbowl, the odds are pretty good.

 

[mikeak]

I love it!!

2000's equal 60's. It means the cycle has started over. So this will be like the 70's which is 80%.

 

[Crabhawk]

Granted statistics can always be manipulated or just grossly wrong but there's reason why their called trends.

I think stats and "numbers" can be presented in such a way that they can be misleading, and I don't mean to be disrespectful, but that's kind of what's going on here. What's often missing, and you touched on this in your first sentence, is the difference between odds and trends. This isn't about odds or our likelihood of winning, it's about correlative trends from previous decades. The the numbers you gave are saying more about what was going on in the NFL during those decades, rather than what will go on during this one.

It doesn't bother me, not because of the hopes that the decade cycle will repeat or that we're bucking trends, but because there's not enough variables presented (decade + record + SB winner) to give the trend weight in predicting future outcomes. For that I think you'd need to look at teams' clutch factor, relative performance on O/D/ST, QB performance, # of play makers, etc.

The one thing that gives me the most hope about the Hawks this year is how statistically balanced and dominant we are in every phase: O, D, and ST. Throw in there the coaching staff's knack for outstanding half time adjustments and the team's belief they always have a chance to win, and I think you have a rare recipe for success.

 

[Brahn]

This team has been unconventional since day one of the rebuild. I would not use anything other then this season to try and predict outcomes. This team really is just beyond previous measurements.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Hey Cartire, is that second eyebrow coming off your avatar when the Seahawks CRUSH the whiners tomorrow?

He he he....
http://lotr.wikia.com/wiki/Grima_Wormtongue
he he he

:thirishdrinkers: :thirishdrinkers:

 

[chris98251]

Steelers in the 70's and 49ers in the 80's I am betting without looking. Two teams that were loaded and young when the string started for them, why they may have had best records and won the Trophy.

Also Cowboys and Raiders probably took some of those as well and those team were almost as equally loaded.

 

[Cartire]

Hey Cartire, is that second eyebrow coming off your avatar when the Seahawks CRUSH the whiners tomorrow?

8)

 

[ivotuk]

The thing is, everybody knew that the team with the best record wasn't that good in each year. Like Atlanta, no one have them a chance even though they had the best record. Why? Because they had an average defense and played in a dome.

I'd be curious to know how many teams with a great record played in a dome and whether their offense, defense and special teams rated in the top 5 or 10 like ours do? Likely not.

Nothing to worry about, Pete and John are at the helm.

 

[seahawkfreak]

Yeah but I remember teams like the 91 skins and the 90s cowboys who just seemed to have a season swagger, had that "it" factor. I think over the past 10 years no one has had that feel with the exception of the 07 patriots. Recent Super Bowl teams have gained it in the playoffs. I think us and the Broncos are on that stride except the Broncos are not as complete as us. I know there are so many arguments against what I just wrote but I want to believe that that is what we have. I want to believe we are dominant and that we are gonna blow out whoever we play in the Super Bowl like the NFC did in the 80s and 90s.

 

[chris98251]

Something to remember, those eras of dominant teams had a defense that was elite caliber, 49ers. Pittsburgh, Raiders and Cowboys. A great offense can win one, a great defense can win several. Having a windfall of riches and lucky enough to have both is a dynasty.