What do we know 49ers Rivalry Week Edition...

[pehawk]

Where the hell have you been, scanner!!?? Good seeing you (maybe you have been around and I just haven't seen ya).

 

[Hawkscanner]

Where the hell have you been, scanner!!?? Good seeing you (maybe you have been around and I just haven't seen ya).

I've poked my head in here and there ... but mostly I've been relegated to lurker when it comes to .Net. That's what happens when you land a full time teaching gig and are in your first year. All that energy I used to pour in to Hawks previews I'm now funneling in to lesson plans for my history students. So, if you're up for say - a good Civil War History debate, I'm good to go. Lincoln -- the Great Emancipator ... or the Great Jailer -- you decide.

That said, I DO take some time out from my lesson plans and mountain of papers that I have to grade in order to watch Hawks games. A man has to have his priorities straight after all.

 

[Scottemojo]

Where the hell have you been, scanner!!?? Good seeing you (maybe you have been around and I just haven't seen ya).

I've poked my head in here and there ... but mostly I've been relegated to lurker when it comes to .Net. That's what happens when you land a full time teaching gig and are in your first year. All that energy I used to pour in to Hawks previews I'm now funneling in to lesson plans for my history students. So, if you're up for say - a good Civil War History debate, I'm good to go. Lincoln -- the Great Emancipator ... or the Great Despot -- you decide.

That said, I DO take some time out from my lesson plans and mountain of papers that I have to grade in order to watch Hawks games. A man has to have his priorities straight after all.

Jeebus, I would have pegged you as a history teacher without even knowing. Good on you.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Where the hell have you been, scanner!!?? Good seeing you (maybe you have been around and I just haven't seen ya).

I've poked my head in here and there ... but mostly I've been relegated to lurker when it comes to .Net. That's what happens when you land a full time teaching gig and are in your first year. All that energy I used to pour in to Hawks previews I'm now funneling in to lesson plans for my history students. So, if you're up for say - a good Civil War History debate, I'm good to go. Lincoln -- the Great Emancipator ... or the Great Despot -- you decide.

That said, I DO take some time out from my lesson plans and mountain of papers that I have to grade in order to watch Hawks games. A man has to have his priorities straight after all.

Jeebus, I would have pegged you as a history teacher without even knowing. Good on you.

Must be because of my obvious contorted nature. Over the years, the brains of we Social Studies types tend to become a bit like those gnarled trees that you find in swamps.

 

[Scottemojo]

Where the hell have you been, scanner!!?? Good seeing you (maybe you have been around and I just haven't seen ya).

I've poked my head in here and there ... but mostly I've been relegated to lurker when it comes to .Net. That's what happens when you land a full time teaching gig and are in your first year. All that energy I used to pour in to Hawks previews I'm now funneling in to lesson plans for my history students. So, if you're up for say - a good Civil War History debate, I'm good to go. Lincoln -- the Great Emancipator ... or the Great Despot -- you decide.

That said, I DO take some time out from my lesson plans and mountain of papers that I have to grade in order to watch Hawks games. A man has to have his priorities straight after all.

Jeebus, I would have pegged you as a history teacher without even knowing. Good on you.

Must be because of my obvious contorted nature. Over the years, the brains of we Social Studies types tend to become a bit like those gnarled trees that you find in swamps.

Nope. You are just very thorough. Always have been. An analyst by nature. A why? guy.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Where the hell have you been, scanner!!?? Good seeing you (maybe you have been around and I just haven't seen ya).

I've poked my head in here and there ... but mostly I've been relegated to lurker when it comes to .Net. That's what happens when you land a full time teaching gig and are in your first year. All that energy I used to pour in to Hawks previews I'm now funneling in to lesson plans for my history students. So, if you're up for say - a good Civil War History debate, I'm good to go. Lincoln -- the Great Emancipator ... or the Great Despot -- you decide.

That said, I DO take some time out from my lesson plans and mountain of papers that I have to grade in order to watch Hawks games. A man has to have his priorities straight after all.
Jeebus, I would have pegged you as a history teacher without even knowing. Good on you.

Must be because of my obvious contorted nature. Over the years, the brains of we Social Studies types tend to become a bit like those gnarled trees that you find in swamps.
Nope. You are just very thorough. Always have been. An analyst by nature. A why? guy.

Ahhhh ... thanks for the kind words there. You ought to see my analysis of the Emancipation Proclamation.

But enough of that -- I'm curious to hear your analysis of this Niners team we'll be facing on Sunday. I was looking at some of the numbers (just briefly, and I'll admit I haven't had a whole lot of time to follow anyone other than the Hawks) -- but it sure looks to me as though the Niners running game has taken a bit of a step back. Now, it's subtle ... but it looks to me as if Frank Gore isn't anywhere near as dominant as he used to be. When I look at him, I see shades of Shaun Alexander circa 2006. From an offensive standpoint, they sure don't look all that scary to my eye (which is interesting, given the weapons they have).

I'm curious to hear, to what do you attribute the 49ers struggles this year ... and how do you think the Seahawks can honestly look to take advantage of those, given the state of our own inept offense as it currently stands?

 

[pehawk]

Good on you for teaching man, good on you. Theres not a more honorable profession.

Selfishly though, you're missed around these parts.

 

[HawkerD]

I like a few legit tough guys on that team, like Boldin. But Crabs, and Vernon? With their season in the balance last year, they shortarmed passes because they didn't want to get hit. Which had to make Boldin cry like a Native that just saw littering.

90% of the people here have to be saying, "what the F is he talking about...natives crying"? BTW I'm one of the 10%

 

[NINEster]

The 49ers are down Bowman and Willis, but have Aldon back now and Chris Borland is Zach Thomas 2.0 (If you're not old enough to remember how good Zach Thomas was in his prime.. just understand that he was a monster)

Offensively, the 49ers rival us in that their offensive coordinator could be hit by a bus today and most of the fan base would be optimistic. Greg Roman has been mind numbingly bad at play-calling for large aspects of the game (see Bevell, Darrell) .. and at the crux of it, they are at their best when Roman remembers to run the offense through Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.

(Sound familiar?)

Their secondary is still vulnerable, but Bethea is a major improvement over Whitner in coverage. Reid is still a fantastic safety. Their corners however are very average.. Culliver/Brock/Cox (WT3's replacement for a few weeks last year) are all capable of being beat.. even by these WR's.

IMO - the team that runs the ball better than the other will win this game. Frank Gore has always been a thorn in our ass.. and that's not changing Thursday. If we stop Gore and run the ball well, we win.

Vulnerable secondary? That's one I've had to tolerate from Giants' fans from years past, and after what happened two weeks ago I doubt I'll have to hear it anymore.

If there's anything to worry about, it's allowing Wilson an hour to throw from his annoying scrambles. Or maybe some creative design to get a guy like Willson the ball in space like they did last year. But if you think other teams have kept your receivers in check, suddenly the 49er secondary is to be had?

Right now the biggest concern on defense is NT with no Dorsey in sight for at least another week or two, and Ian Williams out for the season for those who haven't kept up. Against a run based offense with Lynch it's a concern -- hopefully offset by your loss of Mebane (and quite frankly I so wish both teams were at full strength).

The 49ers offense hasn't been trending well, but the way I look at it is that it showed up for the big game against the Saints. It's hard to know what to expect week to week, but I expect better concentration, focus, execution than I've seen in past weeks.

 

[Popeyejones]

...

Nice post, Hasselbeck.

If you don't mind, I'm going to respond to each of your thoughts. It's worth saying up front that I think the line is about right and this game is a toss-up. We've got two very talented and injured teams which have been performing very inconsistently this year. This game could be close, and it could be a blowout in either direction. I just have no idea what to expect for this one, and the short week doesn't help that either.

The 49ers are down Bowman and Willis, but have Aldon back now and Chris Borland is Zach Thomas 2.0 (If you're not old enough to remember how good Zach Thomas was in his prime.. just understand that he was a monster)

Borland has been a very nice surprise, but his good individual play shouldn't overshadow how much the 9ers run defense has struggled since Ian Williams went down (and Dorsey doesn't appear to be coming back any time soon). Williams had a +12 PFF grade, and so far, Quinton Dial (a 3-4 DE admittedly playing out of position at NT) is -2. The 9ers, despite Borland's play, have gotten gashed on the ground since Williams went out three weeks ago (e.g. they've given up 100 yards rushing days twice in three weeks, which just isn't something they do).

Borland is a great downhill tackler but can't play in space. I'm guessing the Hawks will run a lot of read/option, and Borland will be assigned to fly to Lynch. Wilson should have some success on the keepers because Brooks has been really bad this year and can beaten around the outside, and Lynch, although exciting, is still pretty one-dimensional as a pass-rusher.

Look for the 9ers to counter this by moving Aldon around a lot. I think, despite Borland, the Seahawks will be able to run, though.

Offensively, the 49ers rival us in that their offensive coordinator could be hit by a bus today and most of the fan base would be optimistic. Greg Roman has been mind numbingly bad at play-calling for large aspects of the game (see Bevell, Darrell) ..

This is why I think listening to fans too much can be a mistake. Nobody roots for offensive coordinators, so when offenses under perform, they're always the first people thrown under the bus. Of late, in order of the 9ers offensive problems, I'd put Roman well behind 1) inconsistent line play and 2) dropped passes (which have really plagued the team the past three weeks).

Roman is fine, the line just can't get any push, is missing blocks, and the WRs are really underperforming right now.

and at the crux of it, they are at their best when Roman remembers to run the offense through Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.

True story and not exaggerating: The majority (meaning, seriously, over 50%) of the 9ers' rushing yards over the last three weeks have come from one play (that the 9ers have run over and over again because nothing else works). It's the 33 counter and 34 counter. They run it both directions but usually to the left. It has been this way for the last three weeks. If the Hawks can't stop this play it is an utter failure of coaching and scheming. All Gore has left is his vision and patience; it's a play that totally caters to his skill set these days. Hyde, in my opinion, is also a bit overrated right now. He's a monster if he can get past the first level, but he can't do so regularly because of the line problems (e.g. all of Gore's three yard gains are one yard gains with Hyde).

Vance McDonald (#2 rated blocking TE in the NFL this year according to PFF) is likely out again this week as well. Oddly, I think the Hawks should be ready for the 9ers to try to attack them through the air, as the run game has really been a mess, and WR drops are much more flukey than not being able to consistently run block.

Their secondary is still vulnerable, but Bethea is a major improvement over Whitner in coverage. Reid is still a fantastic safety. Their corners however are very average.. Culliver/Brock/Cox (WT3's replacement for a few weeks last year) are all capable of being beat.. even by these WR's.

This probably comes as surprise, but the 9ers Pass D is currently #2 in the NFL in pass yards given up per game, and #1 in INTs. It's a testament to Fangio. Bethea is playing at a Pro-Bowl level, Cox is playing at a Pro-Bowl alternate level, and Culliver is playing incredibly well also. Surprisingly Dontae Johnson has filled in nicely as the #3 CB due to injuries.

If anything, the weak link of the 9ers secondary these days is Reid. He's still good, but has been struggling with mental mistakes in his second year, particularly in pass coverage.

All to say that I think in the past month (in particular) the 9ers run defense has been much more vulnerable than their pass defense. With Aldon Smith back and Brooks and Lynch now rotating I think that's even more the case than before.




In any case, a fair amount of disagreement I guess, but I hope my post is read as amicable as it was intended to be. Just trying to offer a perspective on the 9ers from someone who watches them wayyyy tooooo closely. :lol:

 

[pehawk]

Good stuff, Popeye. So, no Dorsey, you're "Mebane"?

How's Kap been?

 

[Popeyejones]

Good stuff, Popeye. So, no Dorsey, you're "Mebane"?

Thanks, man.

Dorsey has been out all year, but yeah, Williams was/is our Mebane, and was incredibly effective (both according to PFF, and my subjective eye test) this year. The 9ers run d has been BAD since Williams went out, and if anything, Borland's play has hidden how much worse it really is. It's to be expected when you have a second year 5th round pick who sat out his whole first year playing (and starting) out of position because you don't have any NTs left (Dial's actually pretty promising at his natural position), but it has just really been a mess.

Borland is loved for his aggressiveness but I think the Hawks can take advantage of it (coupled with his youth) with misdirection plays. Borland guesses A LOT, and people love it because of the splash plays it generates, but it leaves an incredibly vulnerable interior run defense even more vulnerable sometimes. This is what the Redskins were doing in between attacking the edges (mostly going after Brooks/Lynch -- a good strategy), and why an above average plodder like Morris could end up with 120 yards and 6 YPC even without ANY threat of a passing attack by RGIII.

How's Kap been?

Believe it or not, Kap has shown MASSIVE improvement this year. I didn't think he had it in him, and I've been stunned. The biggest area you'll see this in (likely) is that he's now stepping into the pocket (finally!) and keeping his eyes down field and going through his progressions while in there. His scrambling his taken a hit for it, but overall it a great, great, development.

He still struggles (and may always struggle) with:

1) Believing too much in his pre-snap reads/not being able to adjust on the fly when he has been fooled by disguised coverage. This is why so many of his INTS (I'd guess four of the six this year, and there have been some dropped ones too) just appear to be completely boneheaded or come from marginal players jumping routes because they know exactly what he's thinking and where he'll be going. Because of this he's good for what appears to be 1-3 total head scratchers per game, but the reason is just that he's simply misread the defense.

2) Not having a natural feel for the game, where he is on the field, and where defenders are around him. He might develop this, and it might just be who he is. It causes another 1-3 complete head scratchers a game (e.g. running out of bounds three or four yards behind the LOS rather than throwing it away, getting stripped while scrambling because he doesn't know who is behind him and to the side of him, etc.).

As for Kap, I think the game might hinge on if he has 2 of these head scratchers or six of these head scratchers on Thursday (it could be either), and the roll of the dice on if they end up as turnovers or not.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Saying the Niners Secondary is average is a huge misconception. They have played really well all season. They havent had help up front either. Before Smith was back they were at the bottom of the league in sacks and pressuring the QB and the CB were still playing well. They have had some injuries lately, but still hung in there. Its gonna be a tough game, both teams want and need to win badly. Exciting night

 

[bigwrm]

Yeah, their secondary has been a big surprise to me. It's like the bizarro 49ers with a strong secondary and soft offensive line. One thing that hasn't changed is their ability to keep finding talented linebackers.

Good thoughts on Borland and Kaepernick, Popeye. Appreciate the insight. It does look like Kap/49ers have made an effort to keep him in the pocket and develop his passing, which I was hoping would happen more with Russell Wilson. But I wouldn't be surprised if this is the game where Kap breaks a few big runs. 49ers aren't going to hold anything back and I can see Bennett/Avril being aggressive and getting a ton of pressure--I hope they're disciplined enough to keep him contained.

Otherwise I'm not too worried about the 49ers on offense. I'd be surprised if either team scored 20 points. By the way, what's up with Vernon Davis? Looking more like Kellen Davis.

 

[lvnginhwktwn]

I like a few legit tough guys on that team, like Boldin. But Crabs, and Vernon? With their season in the balance last year, they shortarmed passes because they didn't want to get hit. Which had to make Boldin cry like a Native that just saw littering.

90% of the people here have to be saying, "what the F is he talking about...natives crying"? BTW I'm one of the 10%

This is definitely a tell on someone's age, I doubt there are too many of us that remember that commercial.

 

[Popeyejones]

By the way, what's up with Vernon Davis? Looking more like Kellen Davis.

Earlier in the year I thought it was injuries and offensive line struggles (him being left in as a blocker and also his type of plays -- deep passes and long developing crossing routes) just not being possible due to Boone's awful start, Davis being out, Iupati never having been good in pass pro and Staley having a down year.

Now the O-Line is decent enough in pass-pro and Vernon is healthy, and he's still not doing anything, and doesn't even really appear to be giving it 100% when he gets the opportunities. He has never been one of those guys who will layout for a pass, but that's not totally atypical (Did Terrell Owens ever dive for a ball in his career?), and he'd at least go up for them.

TBH, I think he's just 30 years old now, focused on protecting his body, and mentally has already started to check out and move on to other pursuits and interests. Ideally when this happens a guy will just retire (i.e. Barry Sanders), but more often than not people will just stick around for the checks and let things play out (e.g. Steven Jackson, Jason Taylor, etc.). He might have a few big games left in him over this year and next, but I think someone will end up over-paying on one last deal for a formerly dominate player that just doesn't care that much anymore. He likes working out enough to fool someone into another deal, IMO.

 

[Marvin49]

Good stuff, Popeye. So, no Dorsey, you're "Mebane"?

Thanks, man.

Dorsey has been out all year, but yeah, Williams was/is our Mebane, and was incredibly effective (both according to PFF, and my subjective eye test) this year. The 9ers run d has been BAD since Williams went out, and if anything, Borland's play has hidden how much worse it really is. It's to be expected when you have a second year 5th round pick who sat out his whole first year playing (and starting) out of position because you don't have any NTs left (Dial's actually pretty promising at his natural position), but it has just really been a mess.

Borland is loved for his aggressiveness but I think the Hawks can take advantage of it (coupled with his youth) with misdirection plays. Borland guesses A LOT, and people love it because of the splash plays it generates, but it leaves an incredibly vulnerable interior run defense even more vulnerable sometimes. This is what the Redskins were doing in between attacking the edges (mostly going after Brooks/Lynch -- a good strategy), and why an above average plodder like Morris could end up with 120 yards and 6 YPC even without ANY threat of a passing attack by RGIII.

How's Kap been?

Believe it or not, Kap has shown MASSIVE improvement this year. I didn't think he had it in him, and I've been stunned. The biggest area you'll see this in (likely) is that he's now stepping into the pocket (finally!) and keeping his eyes down field and going through his progressions while in there. His scrambling his taken a hit for it, but overall it a great, great, development.

He still struggles (and may always struggle) with:

1) Believing too much in his pre-snap reads/not being able to adjust on the fly when he has been fooled by disguised coverage. This is why so many of his INTS (I'd guess four of the six this year, and there have been some dropped ones too) just appear to be completely boneheaded or come from marginal players jumping routes because they know exactly what he's thinking and where he'll be going. Because of this he's good for what appears to be 1-3 total head scratchers per game, but the reason is just that he's simply misread the defense.

2) Not having a natural feel for the game, where he is on the field, and where defenders are around him. He might develop this, and it might just be who he is. It causes another 1-3 complete head scratchers a game (e.g. running out of bounds three or four yards behind the LOS rather than throwing it away, getting stripped while scrambling because he doesn't know who is behind him and to the side of him, etc.).

As for Kap, I think the game might hinge on if he has 2 of these head scratchers or six of these head scratchers on Thursday (it could be either), and the roll of the dice on if they end up as turnovers or not.

Pretty much agree with everything there.

Most Niner fans don't see it because they expect Kap to play like Manning, but Kap has shown a great deal of improvement this year. Getting through his reads quicker, trying to stay in the pocket and let a play develop longer, and when he does run he's keeping his eyes downfield.

He is good for 1 or 2 WTF type throws every game though. As you said he is stubborn getting off his pre-snap read so when he misreads the D it makes for some really bad looking plays.

At the same time though he seems to be good for a superhuman play every couple weeks (Across his body to Gore for TD, 65 yard pass on 4th and long in NO, Insane TD to Boldin at the Rams on Monday Night). The only problem with that is it seems that those Superhuman plays are required to score and they never seem to score easy points. Nothing seems to go by design and the best stuff happen when Kap is on the move and off script.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

I like a few legit tough guys on that team, like Boldin. But Crabs, and Vernon? With their season in the balance last year, they shortarmed passes because they didn't want to get hit. Which had to make Boldin cry like a Native that just saw littering.

90% of the people here have to be saying, "what the F is he talking about...natives crying"? BTW I'm one of the 10%

10%er.

 

[ManBunts]

As mentioned, Gore has always had our number. The man is a very smart player and very good runner. Not flashy, but does his job and does it well. I've always liked him. That said, I hear he's battling hip and knee issues, which may mean less him, more Hyde, something that I think we should watch out for. We can't get lax just because Gore isn't getting the reps. Especially with Mebane out. I feel sooooo much better with Wagner back, and we'll need him to help keep contain on Kap. God I wish we had Unger though.

Offensively I see a lot of parallels between our two teams in that we're both power runners at heart, but our coaching staffs have gone away from that from time to time, and we only now see to be finding our footing.

I think the Niners secondary is hugely underrated at the moment and we need to be wary, but we have some underrated talent ourselves at WR and I'd love to take advantage of Richardson's speed, Norwood's hands, and Helfet's size.

Curious if there are any Niner fans reading this, what's your take on your defense? Seems like there was some turmoil with Brooks, and Bowman still sitting. Aldon is back and always dangerous, but one man does not a team make. Are all the perceived issues just conflated by the media?

 

[oldhawkfan]

I like a few legit tough guys on that team, like Boldin. But Crabs, and Vernon? With their season in the balance last year, they shortarmed passes because they didn't want to get hit. Which had to make Boldin cry like a Native that just saw littering.

90% of the people here have to be saying, "what the F is he talking about...natives crying"? BTW I'm one of the 10%

10%er.

:13: